"It couldn't be soon enough," commented one NM GOP campaign veteran upon hearing the news that the Prez will hit three NM cities in a day long tour this Thursday making for Bush's second visit to our state this month.

"We know we are behind here and there is only so much time to turn it around. Kerry's train trip thru the state may have cemented a big chunk of vote for him. Hopefully, this trip by Bush will at least move some of them to the undecided column," offered our R.

His concern is heightened by the latest American Research Group (ARG) survey of the state taken Aug. 17-19 showing the Massachusetts Senator with a healthy 7 point lead over the Prez. (49% to 42%) That's the same margin ARG had the race in an early July poll, giving rise to fear among the Bushies that New Mexico is locking down for Kerry.

"We have a shot here. But come mid-September if Kerry is still showing his kind of lead, I expect a decision to be made on just how much attention will be devoted here, considering the importance of larger battleground states," said our R.

The ARG polled 600 NM voters by telephone and has a margin of error of four points, putting Kerry well outside that margin. The poll is highly-respected and does not draw the controversy that the Zogby "interactive" poll does, although that internet based survey has also shown the Prez consistently behind here, as do the polls for the campaign themselves, according to informed and reliable sources.

BUSH'S NM PROBLEM

Bush's big NM problem remains the Democrats. According to ARG, he has 83% support among R’s, but only 11% support from the majority party D's. As we have reported, Prez pros say Bush needs to get that up to at least 25% if he is to take the state.

A Rasmussen poll taken about the same time as ARG has the race tied, but it was commissioned by the Libertarian candidate for Prez who picked up five percent in the survey. ARG does not have the Lib contender on its ballot selection, but did include Nader who got just two percent in NM, not yet enough to seriously wound Kerry.

The stop in Las Cruces is particularly important as Dona Ana County, while leaning D, could have a lower turnout than other urban areas, pumping up the importance of the R's who turn out. Gore beat Bush by five percent, or about 2650 votes there in 2000. The Farmington stop is a pure "nail down the base" move as San Juan County remains heavy R. The Prez smashed Gore by 27% there in 00,’ or by nearly ten thousand votes.

The stop in ABQ, like the one in Dona Ana, is a swing vote move, with the vote in the areas outside of the city limits still seen as vital and laden with possibility. Bush was beaten by Gore by about 4,000 votes four years ago in Bernalillo and needs to at least tie here and probably win it if he is to get our five electoral votes, say our Prez pros.

"This is a good playbook. With Bush here for a full day he demonstrates his seriousness about capturing the state. His earlier stops have been short hops that did not give him the exposure he needed," observed our insider R analyst.

A TRIPLE PLAY PLAN

Bush's visit will also come at a time when NM voters will see up-close those controversial swiftboat ads knocking Kerry’s service in Vietnam. The ads will start airing here this week. The visit, the ads, and then the Republican convention in early September may well tell the tale of NM Campaign 04'. If Bush cannot move it with that triple play, Kerry might get the luxury of nailing down this swing state early and moving on.

Again, in future polls watch that D number. That's the key. It's essential the Prez win over moderate D's or else he is dead money. It will be interesting to see from his speeches in ABQ and Cruces Thursday how he will go about getting the job done.

SPONSOR NEWS: ENTERPRISE RENT-A CAR

Enterprise Car Sales opened its first New Mexico location this week at 9300 Coors Blvd. NW near Paseo Del Norte in ABQ.

A division of Enterprise Rent-A-Car, the company uses the no-haggle method of selling cars, which it says it pioneered in 1962. This new location brings the number of the Enterprise cars sales branches to 155.

SUPPORT YOUR BLOG

Make our site, WWW.JOEMONAHAN.COM, one of your favorites and e-mail a link to interested friends. Interested in advertising to NM's large political community? E-mail me from the top right of this page, or call 505-243-4059 for details.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author