Riding high in April, shot down in May. So the song says, but in the case of Big Bill make that shot down in August. There has been a perceptible change in the standing of the Guv in the past couple of weeks brought about by a confluence of events that has given his opponents their first ray of hope since the Big Guy took over 20 months ago.

"Some of the stuff seems to be sticking for a change," a D analyst assessed. "The constant stream of controversy over people getting contracts, or not getting contracts, based on what they've given the Governor's campaign, has been like a drumbeat. If nothing else, I think it has brought some Republicans who were supporting him back to the opposition camp."

We are not privy to the latest approval numbers for Big Bill--he constantly polls--but we can assume that his peak popularity years have been reached and holding his own at lofty levels in the low 60's is now job one. But the barrage of late has been of such intensity that a slip into less rarefied air is not out of the question, and even likely.

"When you have (House GOP leader) Ted Hobbs calling the governor an emperor in public it shows you the Republicans are sensing some weakness and some opportunity," said our watchful D.

Hobbs' comment came in the wake of Big Bill's refusal (and PR goof) to not go to the Legislature to get approval for the purchase of a state airplane. Also piling on was Big Bill nemesis-in-chief, Attorney General Patsy Madrid, who said the Guv's planned purchase was illegal, setting the stage for perhaps a more serious showdown between the two foes.

Meantime, the campaign money controversy brought an ominous warning from veteran "Inside the Capitol" columnist Jay Miller that the Guv ought to watch his back because "money for contracts" scandals took their toll during the Governor Anaya and Apodaca administrations.

LITTLE PATSY VS. BIG BILL?

Madrid's ambitions, like Big Bill's, know no bounds, and with her latest volley against the Fourth Floor speculation has heated up in La Politica that it's not out of the question that Madrid could challenge the Guv for the nomination in 2006.

"She cannot rule it out because (Lt. Gov) Diane Denish is waiting in the wings to take over. Whether Bill stays here or not, Madrid has to position herself for the future. It seems she is taking the lead in providing shelter for Bill's opponents. It has a campaign feel to it," offered another Dem insider.

The Guv has also peaked on the media front for the time being with the newspapers, as noted above, taking aim at his massive fundraising efforts and what they mean in terms of government action. Also, several of the ABQ TV stations are on the defensive in their coverage of the Big Guy after taking hits for allowing their news anchors to deliver glowing praise of him at a public event.

Then there is the Vice-President thing. He didn't get it, wasn't expected to really, but with Big Bill's path to national prominence now a bit unclear, his rivals may see a chance to pin him down in the messy politics of New Mexico.

Actually, it all has a very normal air to it--a governor entangled in the provincial concerns of his state. But the first two years of this administration has been such a love-in, with Big Bill boosters touting him for the Presidency, that the return to normalcy is somewhat shocking.

"We are in reality-mode now," noted one Santa Fe wall-leaner. "The ship is returning to Earth." Trouble is the welcoming committee is being formed by Patsy Madrid and Ted Hobbs and others behind-the-scenes waiting their turn.

BUSH CHASING, NM STYLE

The Kerry-Edwards campaign is going to try to slow any momentum the Prez makes here during a daylong visit Thursday by putting Edwards in Las Cruces the same day. The VP candidate will hold a public rally and aim his guns at those controversial 'swift boat' ads questioning Kerry's service in Vietnam. NM has a lot of veterans and recent polls show those spots have impacted Kerry's veterans' numbers.

Why Cruces? Because Edwards will be able to hit the state's two major TV markets with just one stop. El Paso TV, which serves Dona Ana County, will beam it there. And ABQ TV will pick him up for the rest of the state as balance to the Bush visit. Modern Prez politics is all about maximizing time and opportunity.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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