Storm clouds continue to gather in the form of polling numbers for NM Republicans hoping to take this Democratic state and put it in the George Bush column. The latest Zogby poll (see below) offers no comfort, showing the Prez remains seven points behind Kerry with very few voters undecided. But, according to some R's, Ralph Nader could offer a gleam of hope for the Prez's lagging effort here, if some astute and bold GOP members take action.

"Nader is not a sure thing to make the NM ballot. He has to turn in thousands of petition signatures (14,527 by Sept. 7) if he is going to make it. It's a given among Republicans that a vote for Nader is a vote for our President. There have been stirrings by Republicans in other states to make sure Nader gets on their ballots, but so far there seems to be a devil-may-care attitude toward him here. I think that's a mistake and I hope the Party gets more aggressive because that is what it's going to take to keep this state out of Kerry's hands," explained one top GOP stalwart.

In Nevada this week it was disclosed that a Republican political consultant came up with cash to help Nader's successful petition effort. And from Michigan comes word that the R's there are also lending a helping hand to the consumer advocate's Prez effort. But all has ben quiet on the NM front with at least no public word that NM R's will cozy up to liberal Nader to further their conservative cause. Of course, the state party was decimated by an internal power struggle this past year and has only recently regrouped.

Meanwhile, Carol Miller, co-chair of the NM Green Party, tells "NM Politics With Joe Monahan" that she and the Nader campaign are "pretty confident" that they will make the New Mexico grade. "The bar is pretty high, but we think we an get as many as 25,000 signatures for Ralph. We gathered over 20,000 for (Green Party Guv candidate) David Bacon in 2002. We see this as a similar challenge," Miller noted from her base in northern NM.

She also said Nader supporters will swarm NM as the deadline nears to make sure the signatures are gathered. "Road Trip for Ralph" is the moniker the petition gatherers go under as they travel from state-to-state collecting hundreds of thousand signatures.

RALPH'S REASONS

Miller pointed out that Nader is not the Green Party nominee as he was four years ago. Texas lawyer David Cobb will carry that banner this time and Hispanic Peter Camejo, who has visited NM several times, is Nader's VP candidate.

Miller is aware of how the GOP could benefit from a Nader candidacy, but says that is a concern for down the road. "People should be concerned first about furthering our democratic system and making sure candidates like Ralph can be placed on the ballot."

She also takes a dig at ardent Kerry supporters who say 'Anybody But Bush.' "Do they really mean anybody?" Asks Miller. "Having Ralph on the ballot will make all the candidates better." But in a bow to political reality she also mused: "What if Kerry is ahead by 17 points in October? Wouldn't a lot of people want to cast votes for a true anti-war candidate like Ralph?"

A lot did in 2000 when Nader managed to snag 4% of the NM Prez vote. That's 21,251 votes in a state Al Gore only won by 366. R's are convinced Nader off the ballot could have ominous results for W.

A 17 point Kerry lead may not be in the cards, but right now he is up seven and without Nader on he ballot the comfort zone grows. The political pros in the state GOP may want to think about that when they come back from their summer vacations.

Meantime, Miller says you can call her at 505-660-5988 if interested in helping Nader make the ballot here.

FRESH NM PREZ POLL

Here are your exclusive numbers from the Zogby Interactive Poll tracking the NM Prez race every two weeks. The poll was released yesterday (July 14). Kerry leads Bush 49% to 42%, with Nader at 3 and undecided just 6%. In the last Zogby poll released June 20, Kerry was at 50%, Bush 43 and Nader 1% and 3% undecided. Very little change. But in all four NM polls conducted by Zogby, Kerry has either led or tied Bush. The survey's margin of error is plus or minus 4.3%. A poll of NM from American Research Group (see my July 12 report) also has Kerry leading by seven points.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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