He's only 31, but Ben Ray Lujan, son of NM House Speaker Ben Lujan, could have his political future riding on the outcome of Tuesday's election. With his most formidable foe in the race for the Democratic nomination for the northern Public Regulation Commission seat, Bob Perls, going on TV this week and also mailing a hit piece against the young Lujan, Ben Ray has responded and joined Perls on the tube as they race to a dramatic conclusion. Lujan had no time to respond to the Perls hit piece via the mail thus the answer on TV.

Can Speaker Lujan pass on a legacy, or will voters, as they have often in New Mexico's past, reject the planting of a family political tree? And what would it mean to Big Bill, who endorsed Ben Ray over three fellow Dems, if the young politico suffers defeat? No wonder so many eyes will be looking North on Primary Election Night 04'.

MY EXPERTS AND THEIR FINAL PREDICTIONS

My panel of 04' Primary experts gathered for a live KANW-FM program late yesterday and I pressed them for predictions on the hottest races in New Mexico.

State office director for U.S. Senator Jeff Bingaman and Dem political junkie Terry Brunner said the Perls-Lujan battle is "going to very tight. I'm surprised the governor has not come out stronger in the last few weeks for Ben Ray after Bob went on TV."

ABQ GOP State Sen. Kent Cravens, commenting on the GOP State House fight between Rep. Larry Larranaga and Rob Burpo: "It's too close to call. I give Larry the edge only because he is the incumbent."

Lobbyist Scott Scanland on the GOP House nomination fight between Rep. Bob White and Justine Fox-Young: "It's definitely too close too call. If the vote skews older, White could have the edge. It all depends on turnout."

The ABQ Tribune's Shea Andersen, looking ahead to the Bush-Kerry NM face off: "Delivering this state for Bush is going to be a major challenge for the Republicans."

CONGRESS AND MORE

All my experts agreed that a loss by Richard Romero against Miles Nelson for the Dem Congressional nomination and the right to take on U.S. Rep Heather Wilson would be a stunning upset. But they all agreed that the margin Romero wins by, if he does win, will be vital.

The panel also predicted a win for Gary King against Jeff Steinborn for the Dem Congressional nomination down south. Lobbyist Scanland: "Gary needs to win by a big margin to pose a serious threat in November. He needs a head of steam coming out of the primary."

Cravens, remarking on the civil war in the NM GOP and Big Bill's interference in Democratic primary races: "When it's the Democrats, they call it breaking ranks. In the GOP it's called a bloodbath."

On the GOP Public Regulation Commission race all agreed that Hess Yntema was the odds on favorite. "A low turnout race favors the candidate with name ID." said Andersen.

On the GOP County Commission battle between incumbent Tim Cummins and challenger Bill Davis, Cravens called Davis "a very intelligent man and a great former state senator. The edge goes to Cummins because he is the incumbent."


On the GOP House race featuring Kathy McCoy and Mickey Barnett backed Mario Burgos, the panel calls it for McCoy. Ron Godbey is vacating the seat and backing McCoy. Said Andersen: "Godbey's endorsement goes a long way out there."

Brunner said he is looking to see if Hector Balderas can "catch fire" in the last few days in his fight for a Dem State House nomination up North against controversial incumbent Bengie Regensburg.

Scanland gives Ben Ray Lujan the edge over Perls, but thinks it could go down to the wire.

MORE TUNEOUT, THAN TURNOUT

Turnout for this election will most likely reach historically low levels, with pollsters Brian Sanderoff and Harry Pavlides saying a break below 20% is likely. Ironically, the polling experts think we could rebound to near record turnout levels when voters decide the presidential battle in the Fall. With such startling low turnout numbers, prepare yourself for some upsets. As Kent Cravens said; we are in "an anything can happen" atmosphere when so few voters participate.

ELECTION NIGHT COVERAGE IS ON KANW 89.1 FM

I started covering New Mexico elections at UNM in 1974 (I started very young!). As I hit the 30 year mark I remain as excited as ever about our political process, if not the campaign techniques This is the 16th consecutive year that I will anchor coverage on KANW-FM, and lobbyist Scott Scanland, my chief political analyst, has been with me for most of those. We will dust off the microphones again Tuesday night at 6:30 for what the Albuquerque Tribune has called New Mexico's "best election coverage." So be sure to join Scott, Kent Cravens, Dem Rep. Tom Swisstack and many others as we provide you with not just the numbers, but the story behind them and what they mean for our political future.

A big "Thank You" to Pfizer, New Mexico's Enterprise rent-a-car, Bill Campbell Real Estate and Alphagraphics on Osuna NE in ABQ for their support of this web site and public radio. Please keep these civic-minded businesses in mind when you make your buying decisions.

We will monitor events thru the long holiday weekend and, if need be, update you on late breaking events. Thanks to all of those serving America this Memorial Day weekend for
safeguarding our rights and making it possible for us to have so much fun covering the world of politics.

Make our site, www.joemonahan.com, one of your favorites and send a link to interested friends.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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