Tuesday, May 11, 2004

Exclusive Analysis Of The One And Only Romero-Nelson Debate; Plus: Shea Andersen On Interlocks, And: A Mea Culpa

Congresswoman Heather Wilson's electoral success hung heavy over the one and only broadcast debate scheduled between Democrats Richard Romero and Miles Nelson. The two squared off for an hour last night on KUNM-FM radio. I called on veteran NM Republican Bruce Donisthorpe who has provided analysis on these pages to call this one since he is neutral and has extensive Capitol Hill experience, but mainly because he is such a political junkie that he was willing to hover around the radio on a beautiful Spring night. Here’s his blow-by-blow followed by my comments.

"Romero walks away unscathed. He is the obvious frontrunner and his job was not to get hurt and he didn't. But much of the debate centered on the 'electability' issue and that worked in Nelson's favor as it was pointed out that Romero lost by over ten points when he ran against Heather in 2000.

"Richard won the debate on political points, but Nelson scored with the liberal KUNM audience. Romero is the pragmatist, pointing out how he supports universal health care but how it is unlikely it will pass. He said he thought that issue cost the Democrats the U.S. House under Clinton. Nelson was the idealist saying it's the right thing to do regardless of the politics. That idealism is appealing and if this were to be a very low turnout race Nelson might have a chance to pull an upset. But I don’t think it will be low enough."

I asked Donisthorpe who he thought Heather would like to have as an opponent in the Fall.

"When you are in politics, you like predictability. Nelson is unknown and could go out there and say anything. He could get them going with populist rhetoric. With Richard, Wilson knows the lay of the land."

Thanks Bruce. As for me, I thought Nelson, nearly breathless at times, did a pretty good job for his first time out. He brought a level of passion that resonated. Romero was well-rehearsed. Referring to his coup ousting State Senator Majority Leader Manny Aragon, Romero said he "had guts and courage" and a “record of getting things done,” in contrast to newcomer Nelson. But Richard overstepped when he referred to himself as a "great politician."

For a campaign that has a slogan of "Goodbye Heather, Hello Miles,” Nelson did little to chink Wilson's armor. But the first half of the debate he scored several jabs, especially when Richard said he had the money to win this time. "If Phil Maloof, who had all the money he needed could not beat her, it's clear that money alone won’t do it. We need a fresh approach," jabbed Nelson. But Romero opened a cut as he reminded everyone that he is "homegrown," an obvious play to the many Hispanics who will help decide the congressional nomination June 1st.

ROMERO AND THE TUBE

Friends of Romero say he is not planning any heavy TV buy for the primary, opting to save that money for the General Election. That decision continues to draw questioning from some strategists who maintain Romero needs a months long TV presence to have any chance at all of unseating Wilson. But friends say Romero is concerned about having enough cash to make the race competitive in November.

GENTLEMEN, START YOUR IGNITIONS

That crazy bill that would have required every owner of a car in NM to install an ignition interlock device to prevent drunk driving continues to be grist for the campaign mill. Blog reader and the Tribune's Shea Andersen has our report

MEA CULPA

Some of my readers received a mistaken impression on how the state house seat of Ray Ruiz will be filled in light of his passing over the weekend. Since Ray represented only Bernalillo County, the county commission, controlled by the Dem's, could choose to name a replacement to fill out his term. Meanwhile, members of the Democratic Party Central Committee will be asked to name a replacement candidate for the Fall election.

It is possible, but unlikely, that the county commission could appoint a state representative to fill out Ray's term and the central committee could name a different person to be the candidate to replace Ruiz on the ballot. With the election so close, the commission may opt not to make an appointment and let the politicos of the central committee handle the task, with the input of Big Bill, of course.

No excuses for my error, which was corrected at midday. I was writing the story late Sunday night after 18 holes of golf and also had my head into the "Sopranos." Both are habits I do not plan on giving up. I just won't indulge them while trying to blog.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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