We're back today with more analysis of the key races around New Mexico in the rapidly nearing June 1 primary. Absentee ballots have been coming in for three weeks and early in-person voting started over the weekend. My experts say it's possible up to half the vote or more could be cast before the actual Election Day, so the candidates that got an early start may have an edge. Now, on to more key race analysis from the top political junkies in this state and some feedback on our first round of key race analysis.

FROM MORA COUNTY:
Bengie
"Joe, I think Governor Bill will still have to deal with State Rep. Bengie Regensberg in the House. Even though he had that fight with the state police and he advocates cockfighting and other controversial laws, it appears he will be re-elected. Hector Balderas, a young lawyer is running well, but a third candidate in the race, Severiano Cisneros, is going to pick up some of the anti-Bengie vote. Also, despite his troubles, Regensberg is well-liked and well known here. The race is his to lose."

Regensberg shook up the state political scene when he could not be found to vote on a close bill favored by House Speaker Lujan and Big Bill and got into a wrestling match with state cops at his hotel room. But he is probably wearing it like a badge of honor and some observers there say its actually helping him in his re-election bid!

FROM ABQ'S NE HEIGHTS AND WEST SIDE

Here's the thoughts of several insiders strung together on another key race.
Cummins
"The Tim Cummins-Bill Davis contest for the Republican nomination for Bernalillo County Commission is definitely a race to watch. Davis, a former State Senator, is flaunting his conservative credentials and pointing out that Cummins joins the two Democrats on the commission to make a majority. Davis is also slamming Cummins over alleged conflicts of interest and cites Cummins' real estate business. Cummins is stepping up his campaign, but Davis got a head start. Also, Cummins had a close race four years ago.

Much of the district is new and now extends over to the Westside. That area could decide this one. Davis is making hay over the Paseo del Norte extension, saying Cummins has not done enough for the roads there. But Davis has run for a lot of Republican offices and lost and is not all that popular in the party. Cummins has the support of (lawyer-lobbyist) Mickey Barnett and the Dendahl wing of the party and that muddies the water more. The hole card for Davis is the bad press county government has been getting over the jail and other issues. I would rate this one a toss-up, with Cummins coming on during the final stretch."

FROM ABQ'S FAR HEIGHTS:

"Greg Payne is the heavy favorite to take the Republican nomination here for the House seat. Joe Thompson is not running after his DWI arrest, and Payne is well-known in the area. Bill Rehm is retired from law enforcement, but has not mounted a stiff challenge. The Dendahl and Barnett faction would like to take Payne out, but it is very unlikely. Payne is walking and mailing the district.
Payne
His opponents are now accusing Payne of meddling in the Davis-Cummins race (see above)as well as other Republican races. (Payne beat Cummins for a city council seat in 99.') Payne's most controversial days seem to be behind him, if not in the Republican Party, at least in public. There is also talk up here that Payne could still have ambitions for the Mayor's office, but right now he is working this legislative district while Rehm's visibility is low. I look for Payne to take this one handily."

READERS REACT

Again, thanks to our insiders for their insights. Our report yesterday drew a wide range of responses. Supporters of Mario Burgos, seeking the GOP nomination for the House seat being vacated by Ron Godbey in the East Mountains, thought our insider was too sure that McCoy would win. "Mario has been working this very hard, and winning a lot of acceptance,' wrote one. The race is not over." Another emailer thought the win call for State Sen. Roman Maes
was out of line, but that was a lone wolf crying as most feedback said the Maes pick was not a key race and that he will be the hands-down winner.

I will have more key race analysis on the days ahead so stay tuned.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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