The coverage has been absolutely fawning. Every other day the New Mexico press seems to be filled with a story about our garrulous Guv and how he is oh, so close to becoming running mate for soon-to-be Democratic Prez nominee John Kerry. You know all the reasons why. But what about the reasons why not? That's one story that has not been covered, until now. Calling on my expert sources across New Mexico, D's, R's and Green's, I give you the reasons why Big Bill will NOT be the next number two.

THE ETHNIC FACTOR

"Much is being made of Bill's Hispanic background and how he would be a historic pick. But his biography may be a bit thin in that regard. Remember, his father was an Anglo banker from Boston. His mother is from Mexico. It's not exactly a working-class hero story that would appeal to Latino's nationwide. Where's the "up-by-the bootstraps" part? Is it a no-brainer that Bill would pull in millions of Hispanic voters? I don't think so. Besides, Texas and California, the two biggest Hispanic states, are already decided, with Texas going to the President and California safe for Kerry. The last name of Richardson also clouds the picture. Obviously, that is not a Hispanic surname. If Kerry is looking to Bill strictly for Hispanic support, he may end up looking past him."

THE GEOGRAPHIC FACTOR

"The press spin is that our governor would bring to the table states like Arizona, Nevada and New Mexico. But is that guaranteed? Probably not. While many Hispanics live in those states, they turn out in low numbers. In October, all the focus will be on the top of the ticket. The vice-presidential candidates will be in the shadows. Who really votes for vice-president? I don't. I vote for the top guy and I think most people do. As for New Mexico, Kerry is positioned to win this state anyway. With his organization and money, Bill will probably be able to deliver this state to Kerry. So, why give him a spot on the ticket?"

THE CAREER FACTOR

"He has a great resume, no doubt about it. But he has his share of warts too. His time at the Department of Energy was controversial with the security problems at Los Alamos. He really wasn't Ambassador at the United Nations that long, and it appeared that he was eased out of the inner foreign policy circle by (Secretary of State) Madeline Albright. His congressional record also might be fodder. There's a lot of liberal voters there that could be fodder for the R's to use against him with swing voters. Also, the Monica factor. He got in deep when it was disclosed he interviewed Monica Lewinsky for a job at the United Nations, after she had concluded her affair with President Clinton. And the association with Clinton is not necessarily a plus. It is among Democrats, but how does that get you the undecided voters?

THE COSMETIC FACTOR

"Appearances may not be everything, but they account for something. Richardson is not the most telegenic politician, and this is the hyper-TV age. He looks a bit disheveled and at times his body language seems out of sync with what he says. His campaign debates with John Sanchez went ok, but I was surprised that he was not as clear-cut a winner against him as I expected. He is also a guy who likes to attack from behind the curtain. Out front, he is the great compromiser. The vice-presidential candidate will be expected to be a pit bull. Bill's personality is not necessarily in tune with that."

MY BOTTOM LINE

All the above is excellent analysis and shows how high-stakes this game is. What looks good on the surface has to hold up to the most intense scrutiny by the keenest politicos in the nation. They play tough and so will Richardson's competitors who can be counted on to exploit these weaknesses. Getting on a presidential ticket is a once on a lifetime opportunity. It won't happen by serendipity and it won't happen without a fight. The stakes are too high. Thus far, it has all been warm fuzzies for Big Bill. But things are about to get serious. No question, he has the right stuff or we would not be writing about it. No one wants to be seen as a loser. You can't say you want the job and then be humiliated when you are not picked. Bill's denial of interest in the post is a decades-old tradition among all those considered. His recent 'no comment" when asked if the Kerry folks were "vetting" his background is more revealing. But be assured, if Bill does get the call, it will be because of a no-holds-barred, behind-the scenes campaign that is going on at this very moment.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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