It's what we all expected. The Prez race in NM is so tight an ant could not get between the two of them. That's the result of the first New Mexico presidential poll conducted by the respected national polling firm American Research Group (ARG). The battle between Bush and Kerry is fully engaged, with only 6% of the 600 likely voters surveyed calling themselves undecided. Overall, Bush has just a one point lead over the Massachusetts senator, garnering 46% of the vote to Kerry's 45%. Ralph Nader comes in with 3%. When Nader is dropped from the ballot the Kerry-Bush battle becomes a dead heat, with both men getting 47%.

Our Land of Enchantment is a key swing state in the Prez contest. Bush lost NM by under 400 votes in 2000. In this latest poll, he gets good news from his own party. The Republican warfare that has raged for months in the state has apparently not hurt Bush, at least not yet. The poll says 89% of likely NM Republican voters will vote for the incumbent. But there is disquieting news for Bush among independent voters. The ARG survey reports Kerry is winning that block with 48% to Bush's 35%, with Nader getting 6%.

The survey was taken earlier this month, but has not been reported in any news outlets here. It was brought to our attention by our friends at ElectYou.com, a sponsor of this site. National polls taken lately show Bush picking up a couple of points on Kerry but, clearly, New Mexico is again going to be a battleground state, with multiple visits from the candidates and their surrogates and plentiful media buys. If the race stays close local candidates will probably not feel any 'coattail' effect from either Prez hopeful.

The ARG results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a statewide random sample of likely voters in New Mexico. Of the 600 likely voters, 34% are registered as Republicans, 50% are registered as Democrats, and 16% are registered with a minor party or no party. The interviews were conducted March 30 through April 1, 2004. Complete NM poll details at ARG Poll

THE CONSPIRACY FILE: BILL & Hil

We don't indulge much in the rumor mill. Just about all my stuff comes from reliable sources cultivated over the years and from my astute readers. But the latest rumor making the rounds regarding Big Bill is so wild and entertaining I just have to let you in on it. Big Bill, the rumor goes, met secretly in Santa Fe with former President Clinton and Hilary Clinton this month and hatched a plot to draft Hilary for President at the Democratic convention at which Big Bill will preside as chair! That's not all. Bill, the tongue-waggers claim, has quietly rented office space in Florida and elsewhere that will be headquarters' for a Hilary-Bill 04' presidential ticket. Now, about Bill's membership in Skull and Bones........

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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