KING
It's got to be the most bizarre polling duel in recent memory. The two Dem congressional candidates vying for the right to take on Rep. Steve Pearce in November both claim to have polls showing them way ahead of their rival. In King's case, he says his poll gives him a whopping 42 point lead over Steinborn! King's poll has him at 54% to Jeff's 12%. And it gets crazier. Steinborn's poll gives him 53% to King's 22%! How can this be? Is this a belated April Fools Joke?

Both candidates hired professional polling firms out of D.C. Gary, son of legendary ex-Guv Bruce King, says his 42% lead is straight-up, no "pushing" of likely voters when they were interviewed. Steinborn says he got his results "after likely Democratic primary voters were informed about both Steinborn’s and King’s biographies." In other words, they were "pushed" in Jeff's direction. But to political observers watching the race both polls are suspect. (Disclaimer: I helped Gary with some consulting early in his campaign)

"I don't believe Gary is 42 points ahead and I don't believe Jeff is 31 points in front of Gary. If you look at the results of the preprimary convention, Steinborn won 42% of the delegates and Gary got about 58%. I see the race much more in those terms than through these polls they are floating," reasoned a seasoned veteran of 2nd Congressional District politics.

King, who says he leads Steinborn "by a mile," also did a polling match-up with Republican Pearce for the General Election. Those results show Pearce with 52% and King with 33%. However, after voters were given a so-called "balanced" description of each candidate, Gary skyrocketed to 47% and Pearce dropped to 42%. In this case, "balanced" is another word for pushed.

PEARCE: WATCHING AND WAITING

STEINBORN
Both King and Steinborn, a native of Las Cruces who worked as an aide to Sen. Bingaman and then-Congressman Richardson, are using their polls to try to raise money in the final critical month of the campaign. Thus far, both men have labored mostly unnoticed with absentee voting now less than a week away.

"I think both of these challengers need to conduct very aggressive campaigns in May, if they are going to have any hope at all of unseating Pearce. Neither of them is firmly established in the public mind, so they have to put the pedal to the metal now to have any hope of pulling off the big surprise later," said our veteran observer.

But it takes big money to do that. And neither contender is flush with cash. Both have about a $100 grand to play with, so any TV buys, unless fast cash is raised, will likely be concentrated in the final two weeks.

Meanwhile, former Rep. Joe Skeen staffer, Bruce Donisthorpe, said the 52% vote for Pearce in the King poll "is very solid.
Anytime you get an incumbent over 50% he is generally pretty safe. Joe used to poll about the same in these mock match-ups in the early going, 51% or 52%. I don't see Pearce as very vulnerable at all." Said Donisthorpe a 25 year veteran of state politics. Pearce succeeded Skeen in Congress in 2002. Skeen died last year.

The Democrats don't have that many "swing" districts in the nation to target. Even though the southern CD seems more and more Republican as the years go by, considerable national funds could be expended on the winner of the King-Steinborn contest simply because the money has to go somewhere. As for the candidates' polls, they aren't going anywhere. No media in the southern district has published either of them.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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