The rumor mill is swirling in Santa Fe over that crowded race to replace Jerome Block on the Public Regulation Commission (PRC) with the latest scuttlebutt saying Block could resign the seat and that Ben Ray Lujan, son of State House Speaker Ben Lujan, could be appointed as his replacement by Big Bill! Sources at the Roundhouse are buzzing about the purported deal that puts state insurance regulator Eric Serna in the middle of the action. The scenario has Speaker Lujan helping out Serna with legislation he wants passed and Serna in turn persuading Jerome to resign, paving the way for Ben Ray's appointment. Also figuring in this picture is State Rep. Max Coll who Serna supposedly fears might oppose his favored legislation. Apparently Speaker Lujan's influence could be brought to bear on Max. But what does Max get in return? Well, he probably could come up with something.

If such hallway intrigue actually becomes reality there is sure to be a squawk from the many candidates already lined up to replace Block in the June 1st Democratic primary. But Block has no where to go and perhaps an early exit could win him some support down the road for a run at the Land Commission or another office. Just speculation, of course. But speculation is the fuel of La Politica now in full swing at our cheery Capitol.

IS THIS VETO REALLY A VETO?

Meanwhile, there is also speculation by insiders wandering those circular hallways regarding that veto by Governor Bill and the unanimous House vote to override the Big Fella. Late word is the state senate cut a deal with the Fourth floor and will not be joining the House in the override. But how did things get so out of hand for Big Bill on this relatively unimportant legislation? Or did they? There are two schools of thought, one of them truly Machiavellian.

One insider pus it this way: "It's hard to believe that Bill did not know his veto, (of a measure to fund the Legislative Finance Committee) would not meet with a veto override. How can one of the nation's top diplomats not know it?" Wondered our perplexed insider?" How indeed?

Is it out of the realm of possibility that the Big Fella is throwing the Legislature a bone so they can flex their muscle before New Mexico and show that they can "stand up" to the Guv. The legislation in question is very low stakes to the electorate, and the lawmakers have been bristling that they have been plowed under by the fast moving Guv. The reality of the situation is hard to believe; that the Governor had NO idea that he would be overidden unanimously. Is he that isolated? Is his political ear really that deaf? Or is he just sticking his finger in the eye of the Legislature for kicks? As I said, it's very hard to believe. So maybe he is thinking "go ahead, give me a little tweak, it'll make you feel good and won't do me any harm." After all, I did call it the year of the Legislature." Ok, that's too far out for you. Try this one....

On the other hand, sources close to the action last night told me that the Guv's lobbyists worked the senate very hard to successfully avoid the override. "It had nothing to do with Bill trying to placate the Legislature. He grabbed for too much again and this time the Legislature rebelled. It may be hard to believe but he was overstepping," our deep insider explained. If he's right the Guv's legislative team needs a refresher course in Legislative Relations 101. It was the kind of error you make in high school student government. If you are going to take a risk do it over something big. An insider measure that the public doesn't give a hoot about would seem to be the last place to play a game of 'who blinks first' and unnecessarily risk hard-earned political capital. But, as Dennis Miller says, I could be wrong.

And so goes the never ending Roundhouse intrigue. Don't bother with a Ph.D in political science. Only veteran practicioners of the ancient art of La Politica can fully comprehend it all. Your humble blogger continues his studies.

ELECTION EVE; IT'S FINALLY HERE

The Dean Machine fights on and the candidate himself was here again Monday trying to turn it around or at least finish a good second. Dean can be expected to surge some in tonight's results. I look for Edwards to also come on a bit tonight, but perhaps not as much from Clark who has spent a lot of money and not moved his numbers. Bad weather is forecast for parts of the state but because the caucus attracts mainly Democratic activists turnout will not be hurt as much by bad weather as it would be in a normal election. I expect no bounce for the second place finishers here if they fail to come within half a dozen points of my expected winner, Sen. Kerry who is now battling high expectations in New Mexico and the other primary states. A single digit win may be greeted with yawns, but as I have written here (see below)Kerry is poised to seal the deal for the Dem nomination.

We'll have continuing coverage of the caucus tonight on this web site and a complete wrap-up Wednesday with my panel of experts who have been with me on this since New Hampshire. So stay tuned.

Early exit polls are out from the primary states (none from NM)> Here they are, but take them with a grain of salt. they could change as the day wears on
AZ Kerry 46, Clark 24, Dean 13.
MO Kerry 52, Edwards 23, Dean 10
SC Edwards 44, Kerry 30, Sharpton 10
OK Edwards 31, Kerry 29, Clark 28
DE Kerry 47, Dean 14, Lieberman 11, Edwards 11

Larry Ahrens and I shared an interview with Dem. Prez front-runner John Kerry on KKOB-AM Monday morning who was fresh from a rally at UNM and speaking to us on the go and on a cellphone. I asked him about the R's already calling him a "Massachusetts liberal." Kerry was quick to respond: "That's one label they can't pin on me" and he cited his support of deficit curbing measures in the 80's as well as welfare reform legislation. Kerry goes into today's Prez caucus here with a better than two to one lead in the latest poll. The race should tighten tonight, but it appears Kerry will finish with at least a third of the NM vote and capture the lion's share of the 26 delegates at stake. (By the way, Larry told me he is NOT seeking to get back in politics anytime soon, although he did not rule it out in the future. The top-rated Ahrens has been with KKOB nearly 25 years).

MY PREZ RACE ANALYSIS IN THE DENVER POST AND THE TRIB'S WRAP ON O4' CAUCUS

Denver Post national reporter Karen Crummy breaks the news that Governor Bill will push for a Western Regional Primary for the next go around. Read about that as well as my analysis of the race and its impact on the western U.S. Denver Post

The Trib's Iliana Limón has the final take on today's caucus
Abq Trib

And a final note. I'll have analysis of the caucus on KOB-TV with Neil Simon on tonight's early news. So join us then.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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