Does Howard Dean have a lock on New Mexico? And, who, if anyone, is hot on his trail? We will soon have a good handle on those questions as word on the street is that the Albuquerque Journal will conduct two statewide polls prior to our state's first ever presidential caucuses February 3. Just when the polling will be done is a closely guarded secret to prevent the contenders from flooding the airwaves with TV spots to influence the polling while it is underway. Veteran pollster Brian Sanderoff of Research and Polling will again be at the polling helm for the Journal.

I would like to see three polls on this one. Hopefully, Brian will do one of his two before the January 19 Iowa caucuses so we can see how victory there impacts the candidates here. The January 27 New Hampshire primary will also establish momentum for some of the candidates. Right now, the smart money in New Mexico, like everywhere else, is on Governor Dean. He has the biggest organization here, has done the most mailing and media and has demonstrated strong appeal in the liberal wing of the party. If that liberal wing holds solid the other seven NM contenders could be left splitting the remainder of the pot.

SO FAR, I SCORE IT FOR DEAN

From this corner, it seems one of the challengers is going to have to make an appeal for that liberal base, or else Dean will win here. In the national polls, Gen. Wes Clark is second behind Dean, but he is not contending in Iowa, so he will need a pop in New Hampshire as he comes into New Mexico and six other states that are holding a primary or caucus the same day.

The NM polling will present special challenges because as few as 35,000 out of a half-million registered Dems could cast ballots. Sanderoff will have to be extra careful screening the interviews. That was a problem in the low-turnout special constitutional amendment election in September. Also, most of the votes will be cast by absentee ballot, so if Dean can bank a bunch of those prior to any disappointment in Iowa and/or New Hampshire, he still might have enough votes in the bank to pull through. Keep your eye here for those polls and, more importantly, analysis for what they mean.

THE MIGHTY MALOOF'S, THE MIGHT DUCKS, AND BIG BILL

I received a phone call from Los Angeles Times reporter David Davis Tuesday who told me he's penning an in-depth article for the Times' Sunday Magazine on the famous Maloof's of New Mexico, now mostly of Nevada. Davis was inquiring about the billionaire family's political ties in NM as they prepare to diversify their business empire into L.A. Davis said in addition to being one of the finalists to purchase the National Hockey League's Anaheim Mighty Ducks, the Maloof's also plan a move into the music business in the entertainment capital of the world.

Here's how a report in the Sacramento Bee put it: "Ownership of the NHL franchise would provide the family with a significant asset in a major market, further diversifying their financial empire while creating a golden triangle of sports and entertainment properties with the Kings in Northern California, the Ducks in Southern California and the Palms in southern Nevada. 'We're still looking at it," said Joe Maloof. 'That's about all I can say.'"

The Maloof's remaining business tie to NM is the Coors distributorship and Quality liquors. Their employees were part of an effective lobbying effort during the recent special legislative session that killed Governor Bill's proposed booze tax increase. Davis pointed out that the Maloof's contributed to Big Bill's campaign, but on this issue they were on opposite sides. (My legislative experts say the Guv apparently will not try for the liquor tax increase again in the upcoming session). Phil Maloof lost his race for Congress here in 98'. He' now in the business with brothers Joe, George and Gavin and family matriarch Colleen. The family supports prez contender Dick Gephardt.

Reporter Davis, whose sister is ABQ attorney Jennifer Davis-Hall, says the New York Times is also working on a piece about the Maloof's, who have a business winning streak going that any of their sports teams would envy.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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