Forget about Medicaid, capital outlay, and even the state budget. The real burning question on the minds of everyone at the Roundhouse and beyond on this eve of Legislature 04' is this: Will this be the last legislative session of State Senate Majority Leader and New Mexico political legend Manny Aragon? The fact that I am writing this shows that the question could actually be answered yes. Friends of the legislative powerhouse, who has nearly 30 years in the upper chamber, say the presidency of Highlands University, a position Manny has been mentioned for in years past, this time truly beckons.

One deep insider put it to me this way: "Joe, several things are in play. Manny's length of service, health considerations, the changes in his senate district, the prestige of the presidency, and the financial benefits of leaving. All these factors together spell a good possibility that this could be his last year."

For many of us in politics a senate without Aragon is unimaginable. New guys, like Rep. Al Park, were toddlers when Manny was running his first senate race. He has cast a huge shadow across all of state government. It is not overstatement to say he has been one of the most, if not the most, powerful legislator in the history of our state.

So let's take our insider's points one by one and see if they add up to the ending of a historical senate career.

Length of service---After thirty years of anything, you get tired, and perhaps a bit bored and distracted. What hills are there left to climb, what legislation to pass or consider that you have not already studied a hundred times? And, do you have all that much left to give?


Health considerations---Aragon has never been a health nut. He is now about 56 and the wear and tear of the legislature is even tough on the younger guys. Certainly, a move to the placid world of academia could be a boon to one's physical and mental health.

Changes in his senate district---Manny won with only 55% last time, not much by historical standards, but he is a likely winner again this time, if he runs. But, according to our sources, Manny gave up some of the Democrats in his district during the 2000 reapportionment to make things work out in other Democratic districts. Was he thinking ahead to retirement then? Filing date for the legislators is mid-March.

The prestige of the Highlands presidency---This would be a prestigious way for Aragon to cap off his lengthy career. The university in Las Vegas is gearing itself to Hispanics and the presidency would give Aragon a golden opportunity to help the next generation, something even the cynics agree is close to his heart.

Financial benefits---The Highlands job would be big bucks. Maybe near the 150K a year level. Under the state retirement system, you retire with 80 percent of the average pay you received for your three highest paid years. That would mean an Aragon retirement payday of well over 100k a year, nothing to sneeze at.

So there you have it. A lot of good reasons why the South Valley political master could finally bow out. What would keep him in? That's easy. Power. Even after being ousted as Senate Pro Tem, as majority leader he still wields the conductors baton. Witness his shepherding of Big Bill's major legislation. Giving up that kind of power cannot be easy. But, like New Mexico, Manny Aragon is at a crossroads. New Mexico enters the new century with a new governor determined to bring the state up to speed. The work load is going to get even heavier. Aragon could get a second wind and decide to continue. If he does leave? His presence would leave a power void, but not for long. As one wall leaner put it: "If Manny retires, he will give life to a whole new generation of leaders waiting their turn."

EYE ON IOWA

This is the big day for prez politics with the Iowa caucuses getting underway at 5:30 our time. Veteran anchorman Dick Knipfing and I will sit down together at 4:20 p.m. today on KRQE-TV to talk about tonight's big event and the February 3 NM prez caucuses. Please join us for the latest, and join me again Tuesday right here for more on the Iowa results and what they may mean here. Read on for my analysis of the Journal poll released over the weekend.

JOURNAL PREZ POLL; DEAN LEADS CLARK BY TWO; KUCINICH SUPRISES;MY EXCLUSIVE ANALYSIS RIGHT HERE

Kucinich
The first poll ranking the candidates in the February 3 NM Presidential caucuses mimics the national numbers with Howard Dean narrowly leading General Wesley Clark. Dean gets 18 per cent, Clark 16 percent. If there is any surprise in the poll, besides Clark being a bit higher than expected, it's Dennis Kucinich. The Ohio Congressman comes in with 6 percent, better than he does elsewhere, and enough to outpoll Senator John Edwards who received only 4 percent. Senators Kerry and Lieberman each polled eight percent.

Kucinich's most recent visit to the state came Saturday when he stopped off in Farmington to court Navajo voters. The fiery, ultra-liberal contender also did a mailer recently to likely Democratic voters which apparently boosted his numbers here. Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt has also been a heavy mailer. He came in with 7 percent. Only Clark and Dean have done paid TV in the state. NM Pollster Harry Pavlides said he felt Dean, who went off the air here for several weeks, and just came back on this week, "should have gotten back on the air sooner." Pollster Brian Sanderoff, who conducted the Journal poll, attributed Clark's rise to his heavy TV buy in recent weeks.

Kucinich's move is important because it may be acting as a drag on front-runner Dean. Kucinich is rounding up progressive Democratic votes found in large numbers around the University of New Mexico and in Santa Fe and Taos counties. He made a play for Greens to switch registration for the caucuses so they could vote for him. But Green registration has only dropped a couple of hundred votes since he and Green party chief David Bacon made that plea, so it appears Kucinich is getting his main support from the liberal Democratic bastions mentioned above.

Iowa and New Hampshire and who gets the 'big mo" out of there--Dean, Clark or another candidate, now becomes critical to the New Mexico outcome. Dean has the most extensive ground organization here, and in a separate poll Sanderoff did of Democratic Party "activists," Dean widens his lead by a couple of points over Clark. A candidate needs at least 15 percent of the statewide vote or 15 percent in a congressional district to win any delegates to the national nominating convention. In that regard, Kucinich has a long way to go, but again, by eating into Dean's liberal base, he sets himself up as a spoiler, either to hand the state to Clark or dampen Dean's ultimate delegate count.

The undecided in the poll is a big 34 percent, which indicates that a lot of Democrats will not be voting in the first-ever caucuses here. Sanderoff points out that a low turn-out benefits Dean. I would add that it also benefits Kucinich whose supporters have no less fervor for their man than do Dr. Dean's.

The Journal poll was conducted January 12-15 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent. There will be one more poll from the newspaper before the February 3 vote. The Zogby tracking poll kicks in with daily prez results towards the end of the month. And, of course, we'll have all the action right here.

LATE BREAKING: UDALL DRAWS REPUBLICAN CHALLENGER

The Farmington Daily Times hits with the exclusive news of one of their native sons taking on Democratic Congressman Tom Udall:

By Laura Banish/The Daily TImes

FARMINGTON — Moving up the political ladder quickly, San Juan County District Attorney Greg Tucker has his eye on a new prize: The District 3 slot in the U.S. House of Representatives.The 31-year-old Republican obtained his law degree in May 1999, passed the bar exam in July 1999, was sworn in as a practicing attorney in October 1999 and elected District Attorney November 2000. Nearly at the end of his four-year term, Tucker announced Saturday he is ready to take the next step.

“I’ve always been interested in the U.S. House of Representatives for northern New Mexico. I’ve been thinking about it for the last couple of months. Now, it’s a really good time to enter the race,” Tucker said.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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