With Primary '26 in the books, we're taking a blogging break so posts will be occasional. To be notified via email whenever we add a post, subscribe to the blog by using the link on the right. Thanks for your continued interest. Now a final look at the election that was. . .

Now what? That's the question hanging over La Politica in the aftermath of a primary election that settled the battles for party nominations but left only scraps to pick over in the general election. 

That election looks to be one of the most noncompetitive in years with only a few exceptions.

The US Senate race features a Republican write-in candidate who scored enough votes Tuesday to get his name on the ballot. And that's where the movement stops. Sen. Ben Ray Lujan will not get a well-financed challenge and the race is over before it starts. Forward Party candidate Bob Perls is trying to make the ballot. The outcome will have little impact.

The race for the southern congressional district featuring Dem US Rep. Gabe Vasquez seeking a third term against Republican challenger and Trump-endorsed Greg Cunningham will flare up in the early going with the GOP testing to see if the race can be made competitive. Vasquez claimed a second term in '24 by10,000 votes. The race looks like his to lose. The seat is no longer ranked a toss-up but is "lean Dem."

The other other two congressional races are nonstarters. Reps. Stansbury and Leger Fernandez just have to keep breathing.   

The race for Governor. Republican Gregg Hull has precious little time to make the race with Deb Haaland competitive, meaning he has to raise vast amounts of money in the next couple of months. Winning the race is a long shot even with a well-run campaign. The bettors at Polymarket already have the odds at 87 percent that the Democrat will prevail. Besides money, Hull needs to have Haaland put her foot in her mouth and keep it there for a while. (If conservative Ken Miyagishima manages to make the ballot, it will only worsen Republican Guv prospects this fall.)

The races for Secretary of State, State Treasurer, State Auditor and Attorney General are noncompetitive. The Democrats stand to easily take them with campaigns that will barely register. 

The race for state land commissioner. This offers a ray of hope to the GOP with Michael Perry of Roswell carrying their banner but Juan Sanchez--aka--Juan De Jesus Sanchez III--is strengthened by his primary win, his ethnicity and the unpopularity of Trump. Perry has his hands full.

All 70 state House seats are on the ballot. The primary election took out incumbent Marian Matthews in ABQ but there is very little action to look forward to. "There are maybe two or three seats that will be up in the air," opines longtime Dem analyst Sisto Abeyta.  

Despite the lack of competition, for some reason when we do our November Election Night broadcast we think both sides will be able to talk for hours about why there is so little to talk about. (We're counting on that.) 

THE TURNOUT 

Primary turnout was solid and helped by the inclusion of independent voters who for the first time were allowed to vote in major party primaries. 

Unofficial results show 218,000 votes were cast in the Democratic governor primary. 

About 38,000 independents voted in the election, with the SOS reporting that 74 percent of them opted to vote in the Dem primary or about 28,000. Without the indys, Dem turnout for governor was about 190,000 compared to the 176,000 Dems who cast ballots in 2018, the last primary with no incumbent. 

GOP turnout hit 120,000, up from the 117,000 who cast ballots in the '18 open gubernatorial primary. The independents added 10,000 to the GOP total so more Republicans actually voted for governor in '18 than '26.

Over 10 percent of the registered independents chose to take part in the primary. That was in line with analyst forecasts. The number is expected to grow in future cycles.

(We assumed for clarity that all the independents who voted made a choice in the governor’s race. But the reality is a small number did not vote in that race.)

MY BOTTOM LINES 

Joe Monahan (Bralley)

Take your pick. For the New Mexican the morning after the primary the headline was "Haaland vs. Hull. For the ABQ Journal it was "Hull vs. Haaland". .  .

Sorry, Sam, but you lost and it's time to pay the fiddler. A critic writes: 

What a joke of a campaign run by Bregman. 30 years of all hat, no cattle campaigns by Yosemite Sam. A .300 lifetime batting average might be good for baseball but it’s bad for politics. What A thorough stomping by Deb Haaland. (She won with 72 percent)

Several readers sent us a photo (unverified) that they said pictured Republican governor candidate Duke Rodriguez at the ABQ Sunport preparing to catch a flight to Phoenix the morning after the election. That is where he has a business, another home and where he has voted in recent elections. The Duke took a lot of heat for being a carpetbagger, so much that he came in third in the GOP Guv contest. All we can say is Vaya con Dios, Duke. It was fun while it lasted.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.

Deb Haaland blew the doors off Tuesday night, crafting a 72 to 28 percent landslide over rival Sam Bregman and securing the 2026 Democratic gubernatorial nomination. She now enters the general election campaign as the odds-on favorite against freshly-minted Republican nominee and former Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull. 

All statewide results here. BernCo results here. 

(Journal wrap here. New Mexican here. NYT here. AP here.) 

The runaway victory by Haaland, fueled by an over-the-top campaign kitty of $13 million raised across the nation, was so encompassing it left no question that the Democratic party is unified behind her candidacy and is deeply enamored with the chance to elect her the state's first Native American governor. 

The results read as though Haaland were facing an unknown third party candidate not the well-known BernCo District Attorney. There was simply no place he could hide. 

In Santa Fe county she lowered the hammer with an 80 percent win; in Bernalillo it was 69 percent; In Dona Ana 79 and even in conservative Little Texas in Chaves county she outscored the moderate Dem DA with 73 percent. 

Bregman's pronouncement made during the campaign that he would not be endorsing Haaland if he lost was blown away by the results and amid a wind storm that descended on ABQ's Old Town Plaza where Haaland celebrated her crowning political achievement. 

The win was especially sweet because the campaign against her was so sour, accusing her as it did of being a bumbling, incoherent who lacked any real experience for the job of governor. Videos flooded the socials showing her discomfort when appearing before congressional committees as Secretary of Interior, prompting derisive comments about her intelligence. 

But like Bregman's threat not to endorse her ws made impotent in the landslide's wake, similar Republican attacks over her capabilities may lack much force after she was so convincingly vindicated by voters. 

HULL AND COMPANY  

Gregg Hull and company will have to find another way to shake up the race that could set faster than cement in Haaland's favor if they don't act fast. First, they will have to raise the money to send the message. 

Hull was woefully inadequate in that regard, agree political pros of all stripes. He only managed to raise $600,000 but his stature as a former three-term mayor of Rio Rancho gave him standing in the party and personal relationships with many Republican voters. That was support that could not be broken by either ABQ businessman Doug Turner or the wealthy cannabis king Duke Rodriguez. 

Hull won statewide with 47 percent; Turner took 37 and Rodriguez 16.

Hull's inability to raise funds was a flaw but his ability to implement a campaign strategy and not panic in the fog of the war (while he refused to attack his foes) revealed depth of character and a candidacy that the Democrats will not take lightly. 

Despite her display of strength Tuesday night, Haaland remains remarkably fragile and open to making a major blunder under pressure. Such an incident could make the race more competitive and why Hull predicted in a radio interview with ABQ's Eddy Aragon that Haaland would refuse to debate him. 

Our analysts gathered at our KANW Radio Election Night roundtable agreed that Hull was the best strategic pick for the diminished Republican party because he can make a stand in the critical ABQ metro.  

Hull took his home county of Sandoval last night with a massive 79 percent win; in Big BernCo, where it is an absolute must to be competitive in November, he took 59 percent. In the rural areas he held Turner to modest wins like the 53 percent Turner took in Chaves county. 

Former ABQ GOP state Senator Michael Wiener attended Hull's victory party on ABQ's northwest side where he urged him to make "bolder moves" in the campaign against Haaland. 

"His cautious approach has served him well, but now he needs to adjust to a more aggressive posture if he is to pull off the upset," Wiener declared. 

THE RUNNING MATES 

Sen. Gallegos

Maggie Toulouse Oliver has always been a big vote-getter in her long career as Bernalillo county clerk and most recently as secretary of state. She did it again Tuesday, easily getting past ABQ state Sen. Harold Pope, Jr. with a crushing 80-20 percent victory.

Haaland and Toulouse Oliver will be the first all-female gubernatorial ticket in state history. Both are from Bernalillo county while the ticket is usually more geographically diverse. But with women playing such a prominent role in the Democratic party and Bernalillo County assuming more dominance in state elections, the team works for the Democrats. 

The Republican ticket is also a good set-up. State Sen. David Gallegos of Eunice will pair with Rio Rancho's Hull as the lieutenant governor nominee. He beat opponent A. Blair Dunn by 50-38 with Manny Lardizabal getting 12 percent. 

That Gallegos is Hispanic won't hurt, and he can help Hull raise badly needed funds and votes in the SE oil patch. Gallegos previously served in the state House and has street cred on education. He served on the Eunice School Board for 21 years. He is now a manager in his family's construction business. 

Thanks to my KANW radio team and station staff for making possible our Election Night coverage. And thanks to you for tuning in here. It is much appreciated. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.

Our live, continuous Election Night coverage begins at 6:30 PM with complete results and in-depth analysis on KANW 89.1 FM and the live stream on KANW.COM. We look forward to having you with us as we continue this New Mexico public radio tradition.

The executive editor of the ABQ Journal is out. The paper reports Jay Newton-Small resigned from the state's largest newspaper on Monday, a day before today's primary election.

Newton-Small was hired in November 2024 so her tenure was short of two years. She was brought aboard when the previous editor resigned after being arrested on a shoplifting charge. Before signing with the Journal, Newton-Small, 50, was a correspondent for Bloomberg News and Time Magazine.   

The Journal announced that veteran journalist James Bennett, a former weekend/Senior Editor of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution who joined the Journal in April, has been promoted to "managing editor."

James Bennett

He may be the one to settle things down at Journal Center. The Atlanta paper has a strong legacy, winning 11 Pulitzers in its history and has had a string of storied editors.

The Georgia paper of record is in the middle of a major gamble. The AJC printed its final physical daily newspaper on Dec. 31, ending 157 years of ink-and-paper history. It is now a 100% digital-only publication. It makes observers here wonder if the all-digital route could be in store for the Journal as it wrestles with new media and financial challenges.  

Bennett’s title is noticeably less broader than Newton-Small's "executive editor/vice-president" title. 

That may signal a more robust role for executives of the ABQ Publishing Co. which own the paper. They have now seen their last two editors unable to follow in the leadership shoes of retired editor Kent Walz who steered the paper for decades. We'll see if they name someone as editor above Bennett or he eventually is named.

The Journal gave no reasons for Newton-Small leaving, only saying her departure would be "a loss" but a recent public outburst by the former editor may have played a part.  

Jay Newton-Small

It was just over two weeks ago that Newton-Small shocked the political community when she warned Democratic gubernatorial candidate Deb Haaland that she would be investigated by the paper because of her refusal to appear at an ABQ Journal forum with Sam Bregman, her rival for the Democratic nomination (Video here.) 

Newton-Small called the rejection "scary" and added it was "terrifiying" that Haaland stayed away. Haaland did sit for a profile interview with the paper's Santa Fe reporter.  

The Haaland camp obviously will not be displeased with this turn of events. The prospect of having the newspaper conducting a vendetta against her should she win election was already putting a cloud over her possible administration. 

We broke the news of the change while anchoring our KANW radio Election Eve Special. Analyst Sisto Abyeta drew laughs when he quipped of the upheaval, "it makes you want the ABQ Tribune back!"

But everyone in the room said that they where rooting for the Journal to succeed because a strong daily newspaper is good for the state and city--and democracy.

The Journal is celebrating its 100th anniversary this year but with the editorial chaos it seems more like a wake. The new editor has his work cut out.  

 PRIMARY TURNOUT 

There's enough going on in the campaigns to prevent a big drop in turnout for today's election. Votes already cast in the Democratic primary put us on track to hit the 176,000 who voted in 2018 when there was also no incumbent running for the gubernatorial nomination. 

For the Republicans it appears they too will hit the number of their last non incumbent primary in 2022 when about 118,000 ballots were cast. 

The turnout is more of an issue in the GOP primary where three candidates are vying for the nomination while Deb Haaland is seen as having a commanding lead over Sam Bregman.

The four county ABQ metro area--BernCo, Sandoval, Valencia and Torrance--produced 47.6 percent of the early vote cast in the election. Other counties made up 52.3 percent. 

Former Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull hopes that the above average turnout in the metro holds up through the voting today since he is is counting on winning the area. Doug Turner is leaning on the rural counties but needs to keep Hull's winning margin down in the ABQ area. A lower turnout is believed by GOP analysts to benefit him. 

Polymarket late Monday put Hull's chances at winning at 80 percent. In the Dem chase, 98 percent of bettors were predicting a Haaland victory.

The betting market does not judge the margin of a victory--only the victor--whether it be by 100 votes or 10,000.  

TONIGHT'S THE NIGHT

Joe Monahan '26

Join us tonight for continuous results, in-depth analysis, candidate reaction and much more on our traditional Election Night coverage starting at 6:30 on KANW 89.1 FM and  streamed at KANW.COM.

We say traditional because our Election Night broadcasts for public radio started in 1988. As we did then, tonight we have an all-star panel to break down the results and what they could mean for New Mexico's future.

ABQ Dem state Senator Moe Maestas has been a regular for years at the KANW Election Night round table. He loves politics almost as much as the Lobos. The District 26 first term senator served 16 years on the state House before moving to the upper chamber.  His involvement in campaigns goes back better than 30 years. Suffice it to say that no campaign movidas get past him--and none will tonight. 

Sen. Berghmans

ABQ Dem state Senator Heather Berghmans is a newcomer to elective office and a newcomer to public radio. She won her District 15 seat just two years ago but she is a veteran of the political battles. Berghmans previously served as a policy analyst at the Legislature and as a campaign finance consultant with the House Democratic Caucus. In the Senate she is the Vice-Chair of the Senate tax committee. With the way big money is coming into campaigns it takes a finance guru to figure it out, so we've got one. 

ABQ Dem state Rep. Joy Garratt is back on the air. The retired educator and representative from ABQ's westside District 29 since 2019, she is a retired teacher. She also has an unoffical Ph.D  in the ways of La Politica. She serves as vice-Chair of the House Education Committee and is a member of the powerful House Appropriations Committee. Her website is Joy for New Mexico." Who couldn't use some of that?  

Amy Sanchez is the political director of the Bernalillo County Republican Party who is a go-to advisor with a nose for news--of the political variety, of course. She is back ton KANW to carry the banner for the GOP which provided a fair share of the drama in this year's primary election. And drama is what Election Night is all about. 

Veteran Republican campaign consultant Bob Cornelius, a longtime public radio contributor, will phone it in this year. He just could not get away from his Austin outpost. He would have liked to but after all the internecine battles in the GOP, he may be safer delivering the news from across the border. 

Dem political consultant and lobbyist Sisto Abeyta, our lead analyst, is back and has ceded his blog bio space to the elected officials--just as a good lobbyist should. Just don't try to take his microphone away on Election Night. We won't.

Mountain West News Bureau journalist Jenny Kinsey returns to cover events from the field with live reports and news from various locations.We say various because if things get wild she may have to have an Uber on stand-by.

Kevin Otero is our longtime and patient producer and Michael Brasher is our gracefully aging general manager. 

Public radio KANW is celebrating 75 years on the air this year and we are proud to have been a part of so many of them. But there's nothing like the present--so set your alarm for 6:30. It's Election Night on KANW. See you soon. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.

(Moore, ABQ Journal)

Catch the stream of our KANW Election Eve Special today at 5 PM right here. 

There are the election results, and then there are the expectations that come with them. In the case of Deb Haaland, the outcome is widely expected to be a cause for celebration. However, whether she simply meets or vastly exceeds those expectations has created suspense in the race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination.

In the April 24-27 ABQ Journal poll Haaland was the choice of 52 percent of likely Democratic voters, Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman had 30 percent with 18 percent undecided. Today Haaland's internal polling is said to have her at around 56 percent and Bregman at 28 but Bregman says his polling shows the race is "tightening."

Seventy seven percent of the independents voting in the primary, allowed to do so for the first time, are choosing a Democratic ballot. They are expected to comprise about 12 percent of the total Democratic vote. If Bregman scored a big win among them it could give him a boost of 1 to 2 percent, eroding Haaland's victory margin.

If the race finishes with Haaland winning by only low single digits after raising nearly $13 million and spending nearly $11 million, the Republican opposition would be emboldened because they would be able to make a stronger case with donors that Haaland could be defeated in a Democratic state. For the moment, the narrative that the former Sec. of Interior is the presumptive victor would be disrupted.

Haaland's continued difficulty with communicating her message is being exploited by Bregman in a barrage of digital ads as well as a TV spot. The ads show her hesitating, unsure or stumbling while answering questions at congressional oversight hearings when she was in Biden's cabinet. There is more than enough there to give undecided general election voters pause.

Keep an eye on the post-election polling of the ABQ Metro. If there is to be any crack in the narrative that she is the inevitable winner, it will have to show here. The Metro now commands up to 45 percent of the vote in a statewide election and is Haaland's political base.  

GOP GOVERNOR 

Hull, Turner, Rodriguez

On the Republican side, former three-term Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull heads into Election Day with the same ABQ metro firewall as Haaland. His Bernalillo and Sandoval county strength has made him the front-runner for the GOP nomination the entire campaign. 

Chasing Hull is ABQ businessman Doug Turner who believes he is closing and that an upset is in sight. The conventional wisdom sees a low to mid single-digit win for Hull who is expected to dominate the Metro and Turner coming on strong in rural GOP strongholds. 

Turner is making a final-hours embrace of Trump in his advertising but Trump has not endorsed any of the candidates. Hull has kept his distance from him and Rodriguez was called out for running advertising that made it appear he had a White House endorsement. 

Rodriguez started off stronger than where he is expected to finish. His main impact could be stopping Turner from consolidating the anti-Hull vote and ensuring that the former Mayor takes the win. 

Which Republican candidate would be the strongest in the general election? Our Senior Alligators are nearly unanimous that if Rodriguez were to get past his negative baggage in the GOP primary (Arizona residency, campaign donations to Democrats) and score an upset win, he would be best positioned to take on the Democrats and Haaland.

They say the Duke's ethnicity, appeal to independents and moderate Democrats, his ability to deliver and debate a fiery message and his policy chops would make the Haaland-Rodriguez match-up one to watch.

OLD SCHOOL GOTV

It wasn't that long ago that New Mexico had an entirely different way of getting out the vote in the North. Retired newsman David Roybal, author of a book on celebrated politico Fabian Chavez, Jr. who held forth in the 50's and 60's, recalls Chavez's description of Election Day: 

(Elections) were well-oiled, grass-roots practices that kept Santa Fé County Democrats and Republicans -- both parties -- busy each year. "We'd buy liquor and pint bottles of wine, cases of it, and stick them into the trunks of cars that would be driven around on Election Day looking to sweep up votes wherever we could. The booze was for the alcoholics in town who likely wouldn't have gone to the polls if they hadn't been given a ride ... They knew whether they were Democrats or Republicans and were honest enough to get their rides from the appropriate party.

ELECTIVE EVE SPECIAL

Maestas and Abeyta

We're just hours away from he excitement of another New Mexico Election Night. We'll be with you tomorrow bringing all the results, reactions from the candidates and our team of experts. That team will include ABQ state Sen. Heather Bergmans who not only enjoys lawmaking but is a bona fide political junkie. We'll kick off our Election Night coverage on KANW 89. FM and kanw.org at 6:30 p.m. 

But today it is time for our Election Eve Special at 5 PM on KANW. We'll run down the major races, have in-depth analysis and some fun predictions. Joining me will be state Sen. Moe Maestas, Rep. Joy Garratt, GOP official Amy Sanchez, GOP consultant Bob Cornelius and Dem lobbyist/consultant Sisto Abeyta. 

See you on the radio today at 5 PM and Election Night at 6:30. 

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Amy Barela

Chaos again engulfed the New Mexico Republican Party Wednesday as the GOP chair was removed from office by a state district court order. The ruling was a grim reminder to the party faithful of the steep climb ahead if they hope to rebuild a state GOP that has become a shadow of its former self. 

The timing of the ruling comes only days before the primary election. The state party says it will appeal the ruling which came after months of squabbling among the party's rival factions, causing deep divisions in the middle of the primary campaign. 

The next scheduled election by the State Central Committee to vote on a permanent party chairman is in December. It is conceivable that Barela could make a play to get the job back. Several of our Alligators said if the party wants to keep the chaos going, there could be an earlier election. 

Update: A meeting of the GOP State Central Committee has been called for June 26 to consider a new chair. However, if a quorum is not met the committee would not be able to act. 

 THE RULING 

The decision, granting GOP governor candidate Duke Rodriguez and GOP lieutenant governor candidate A. Blain Dunn their request that Chair Amy Barela be removed from power, brought to the fore the geographical and ideological split in the party. Rodriguez and Dunn have libertarian leanings and live in the ABQ metro while Barela and many of her loyalists are from uber-conservative southeast New Mexico.

Barela argued to the court that she did not violate party rules by running for re-election to her Otero County Commission seat in next week's primary even though another Republican was also running.  

Party rules prohibit a party chair from being a candidate in a competitive primary. Barela argued she got in the race when there was no other candidate but the judge rejected the argument and handed the victory to Rodriguez and Dunn. 

Judge Cindy Mercer of the 13th Judicial District in Valencia County wrote in her decision:

(The conflict of interest rule) is intended to avoid conflicts of interest by preventing a party officer from remaining in office while running in a contested primary. For conflict-of-interest purposes, it makes no difference whether the party officer was first or last to file her candidacy for public office; the conflict arises because she is a party officer, holding authority and making decisions on behalf of the party, while at the same time running for public office against another party member. Accordingly, Plaintiffs' motion for a preliminary injunction is granted. Amy Smith Barela is hereby enjoined from continuing to hold the position of chairman of the Republican Party.

Judge Mercer's full ruling is here. Plantiff Duke Rodriguez's reaction: 

This was never about one person. It was about whether the rules apply to everyone or just to the people inside the room making the rules.

THE APPEAL 

The state GOP says an appeal of the ruling is planned:

(The ruling) to direct Chairwoman Barela to turn over the occupancy of the chair to the First Vice Chair, although the order’s duration is unclear, it does not direct the Party to hold new elections, and it does not declare the position of chair is vacant. “The Republican Party of New Mexico strongly contends that this order is a prior restraint on free speech, in violation of the First Amendment,” said Executive Director, Leticia Muñoz. “However, the Party will comply fully with what it understands the order to require, for as long as it remains in effect, and we are in the process of appealing to a higher court.”

STATE OF THE GOP

With the GOP unable to elect any statewide candidates in a decade, the ideological division that now matters is not between the Dems and the Republicans but the one between the conservative/moderate Democrats and their progressive counterparts.

The progressives are clearly winning the battle with Deb Haaland heavily favored to win the June 2 Dem gubernatorial primary over moderate Sam Bregman. Several conservative Dem state House candidates running against progressives are expected to meet a similar fate. For example, in the north Ambrose Castelllano lags behind progressive Rep. Anita Gonzales and former Rep. Debbie Rodella is expected to fall to progressive Yolanda Jaramillo.

Barela's tenure--which may or may not be permanently over--was dismal by one critical measure. The party failed to field candidates for state treasurer, auditor and US senate and had to resort to write-in candidates.

The governor's race has already been called unwinnable by the head of the state oil and gas association, a prime repository for all things Republican and, as usual, none of the statewide races seem within Republican reach especially with Trump's unpopularity hovering over them. 

Getting past their internal strife, getting past Trump and reforming their muddled messaging are the major challenges in rebuilding the party into something resembling a functioning alternative to the Democrats. It will also take a lot of money. Most urgently, it will take fresh, younger faces to replace an old guard that is so out of touch it takes a district judge to bring order not just to the courtroom but to the Grand Old Party.

JUDGE CINDY MERCER

She is a judge with the Thirteenth Judicial District covering Valencia, Sandoval and Cibola counties. All of the local district judges in the Otero county area recused themselves because of the high-profile of the Barela case and it was assigned to Judge Mercer.

The state GOP news release on her ruling made a point of saying Mercer is a "Valencia County" judge, again emphasizing the southern conservative isolation from the north that we wrote of earlier in this blog. 

The fact that Mercer, a Democrat, once worked for the law offices of former state Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez of Belen could also be mentioned as the Barela forces plot their next move. But Mercer's ruling cited numerous precedents on why the court has the standing to make a ruling and the rigorous standards she applied in judging the disputed GOP rules.

Her Judicial Performance Evaluation is here. She was elected to the bench in 2014 with 52.3 percent of the vote and was retained by voters in a 2020 retention election. She is up for another six year retention vote this year. Judge Mercer graduated from New Mexico State in 1991 with a bachelor’s degree in psychology and criminal justice, and earned her law degree from the University of Nebraska in 1997.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Be sure to join us Monday, June 1 at 5 PM for our Election Eve Special on KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.org. We'll run down the major races and have some fun predictions as well. Joining me will be state Sen. Moe Maestas, Rep. Joy Garratt, GOP official Amy Sanchez, GOP consultant Bob Cornelius and Dem lobbyist/consultant Sisto Abeyta. Of course, we'll also bring you our traditional Election Night coverage--Tuesday night starting at 6:30 PM. See you on the radio Monday and Tuesday. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.

Katharine Clark

Hard-hitting trial lawyer attacks on Dem Secretary of State candidate and Santa Fe County Clerk Katharine Clark have been vociferous enough to generate reader questions as well as pushing out a theory behind those hits spearheaded by ABQ state Sen Katy Duhigg and her brother David Duhigg, both prominent trial attorneys. Katy Duhigg is also a member of the influential Senate Judiciary Committee.

In a a letter to newspapers Santa Fe's Ouida MacGregor surfaces the theory that has been flying below the media radar in this very contentious race between Clark and her opponent, Dona Ana County Clerk Amanda López Askin:

I studied López Askin’s campaign reports, and at least 19.6% of her campaign contributions come from trial lawyers. Notably, she received $2,500 from Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Joe Cervantes, $6,200 from Sen. Duhigg, and $8,200 from lawyers at Duhigg’s law firm. Why would the trial lawyers care so much who wins the SOS race? The trial lawyers have a history of playing fast and loose with campaign disclosure requirements, which the SOS oversees and enforces. 

Recall last summer, a trial lawyer group (New Mexico Safety Over Profit) was hit with a 73-page lawsuit and fined the maximum $5,000 by the State Ethics Commission for violating disclosure requirements in the Lobbyist Regulation Act. They ran an advertising campaign against medical malpractice reform, spending at least $56,000 without disclosing the sources of their funding. Fellow voters: Remember that it’s not how much money a candidate has raised that matters; it’s who contributed and why.

The Duhiggs public criticism of Clark has centers on issues other than campaign finance: 

López Askin

There was a debate over Clark releasing early voting data. An ethics complaint claimed Clark violated New Mexico’s election code by releasing absentee and early voting data before the polls had officially closed during four recent elections. Clark has defended her actions by stating that the Secretary of State's official portal does not release final results early. Critics like Duhigg view strict adherence to election protocols as vital for the Sec. of State.  

The complaint David Duhigg filed against Clark over early release of election results was considered by the SOS who found no evidence that the electorate was affected and is not pursuing prosecution. 

Clark and Duhigg have also battled over election legislation. Duhigg is a former Albuquerque City Clerk who frequently sponsors election-reform bills (such as the New Mexico Voting Rights Act) and has clashed with various county clerks over how election laws should be implemented. While Clark brands herself an "election nerd" fighting executive overreach, Duhigg has said the objections from some county clerks regarding statewide election mandates as "misguided," saying she wants a unified state-level approach for election standards. 

So, is there a trial lawyer movida against Clark or legitimate hits on her record?  One thing is certain--Clark is bucking the Democratic establishment as seen in the endorsements of López Askin by outgoing SOS Maggie Toulouse Oliver, Gov. Lujan Grisham and First Endorser Sen. Martin Heinrich.

This is a banner race that we will cover in detail Election Night June 2 starting at 6:30 p.m on public radio KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.org. Join us for all the action.  

FINAL ADS

Sam Bregman focuses on Deb Haaland's frequent communications gaffes in one of his final TV ads of the campaign. As Secretary of Interior under President Biden, Haaland repeatedly struggled in answering questions from congressional committees, a trend that has continued in some of her media interviews during this campaign for governor. In his ad Bregman takes full advantage of his opponent's verbal mishaps, but the question is to what effect at this late stage? Haaland remains heavily favored to capture the Democratic nomination next Tuesday. 

MONAHAN GUV ANALYSIS 

Bregman remains under heavy ad attacks from third party groups supporting Haaland. Polymarket has Haaland's chances of winning at 96 percent. Bregman's longshot hope is to keep turnout low. That means negative hits on Haaland until the end with the aim of dampening voter enthusiasm for her and voters deciding to stay home. 

In a roundabout way Bregman's attacks may end up helping Haaland. The electorate statewide is now aware of her faults and have had time to digest them, perhaps deflating their importance in the November election against the GOP nominee, should she win next week.  

INDIAN COUNTRY  

Haaland's final stretch ads include an only in New Mexico moment. Former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez endorses Haaland in a radio ad voiced entirely in the Navajo language. Haaland would be the first Native American governor in state history. Nez is also on the June 2 primary ballot---in Arizona where he is seeking a congressional seat. 

Haaland has not locked up all the Native support. Bregman successfully raided her base by lining up several tribal endorsements, including that of big Sandia Pueblo in ABQ. 

By the way, let me tell you about how back in the day when I was consulting a congressional candidate and what happened to me in Gallup. I wrote a 30 second radio ad to be translated from English to Navajo. The narrator went into the glass-enclosed studio as I watched him record from outside. He hit the 30 second mark and kept reading--for like over a minute. It turns out that translating English into Navajo is not an easy fit. 

Yes, the campaign paid for the extra time needed for the ad. For me, it was a lesson learned. 

SNARLING AND RABID?

On the Thursday blog we told the story of Dem gubernatorial candidate Deb Haaland bowing out of a town hall sponsored by the ABQ Journal and then drawing the wrath of the paper's executive editor who pledged that in retaliation the paper would now "investigate her." That brought this from a Senior Alligator of the Dem variety:  

Deb Haaland not attending the Journal forum says more about the Journal’s future than hers. Why would she show up to a forum put on by a dying paper whose readership doesn’t resemble the Democratic primary vote and whose opinion columnist accused her of associating with a child molester? Should she go out of a show respect for a paper that shows her none? The future leadership of the paper struggles with their legacy and seems inattentive outside of the occasional performative exercises of attending a chamber lunch, putting on a community forum or raiding local retirement communities seeking members for their “community board." 

The energy on their editorial board room comes from the snarling, rabid Jeff Tucker not from the editor. When he’s off the leash, he's rampaging through town scaring away any remaining moderate-left readership--and that is the death knell for the Journal. 

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Missi Currier

While prominent players in the state's prosperous oil and gas business involve themselves in the Republican gubernatorial primary, the leader of their top industry group is throwing in the towel, declaring that a Republican cannot win in November and that the focus should switch to defeating progressive Deb Haaland at next week's Democratic primary.

Missi Currier, president of the New Mexico Oil and Gas Association, did not openly endorse Haaland rival Sam Bregman but made clear in a speech at a North Dakota energy meeting that she believes he is the only hope of stopping her. 

Bregman has taken donations from oil and gas, generating heat from the progressive left. Haaland has not.

The financial importance of oil and gas to Republican political candidates and causes can't be overestimated which is why Currier's declaration that the fat lady has already sung on the Grand Old Party is a stunner. Here she is: 

Bregman

If you know anybody that can vote in New Mexico, please encourage them to get to the polls. I hate to be the bearer of potentially bad news, but we don’t think a Republican will be able to win in our current  political climate, especially in a Trump midterm. So, the primary is incredibly important to us. I would like to protest (Deb Haaland) being governor. . .I’m sure she has a good heart, but she does not have a heart for oil and gas. She is threatening over 100,000 direct and indirect jobs in the state, and knowing that she did not want drilling on public lands, she said in a recent interview that she would keep that same mentality when she came into office.

As Currier said the Democratic primary is indeed "incredibly important" with the winner highly likely to win the November election in a state that is a deep blue bastion for top of the ticket contests.   

Currier's warning of a Republican defeat stomped on the dreams of prominent oilmen and GOP heavyweights Harvey Yates, Jr. and Mark Murphy, who have been busy raising money for Republican Guv hopeful Doug Turner.

While Murphy and Yates are locals, the NMOGA is dominated by the largest oil companies on the planet, such as Occidental Petroleum. They are apparently not concerned about the optics of abandoning the Republicans and what they see as the party's hopeless cause and urging a last-ditch effort to take Haaland out. 

MIXED MESSAGING 

Haaland is a former Sec. of Interior under President Biden who crafted energy compromises that drew the ire of progressives but that Haaland's department ultimately enforced. In this campaign she has sent mixed messages to oil and gas and Currier is assuming the worst. 

One key issue is fracking, the sometimes controversial process that is deployed to extract oil in the state's SE Permian basin. As a congresswoman Haaland supported a ban on fracking. However, today she seems to have settled on heavy regulation as a solution--not an outright ban. She reacted to Currier's alarm over her candidacy, saying: 

As Secretary of the Interior, the U.S. saw the largest production of oil and gas in its history and simultaneously the largest investment in renewable energy. I have done so while protecting sacred sites and consolidating drilling areas so Americans can continue to enjoy those public lands. I understand that oil and gas is a significant driver of revenue and jobs and have said as much. If elected governor, oil and gas will be responsible for cleaning up after themselves and will be good community partners. Protecting our air, land and water does not come at the expense of good paying jobs--we can create more jobs, grow our energy economy and fund our state’s budget. 

While not as radical as a fracking ban, the threat of heavy regulation is still problematic to the bottom lines of the oil majors. They did not face such concerns with two-term Democratic Governor MLG who pushed back against progressive threats to the industry and carved a middle of the road regulatory path. 

Finding the proper regulatory balance has become even more critical as historic amounts of money flow into state coffers from oil and gas exploration from a years-long oil boom that shows few signs of easing. On the contrary, the recent spike in world oil prices will generate even more riches for the state. 

The oil boys are not going to have the door slammed in their faces should Haaland take power. There is a state legislature watching whose leaders are keenly aware of the vital financial role the industry plays. The billions being generated by oil and gas are essential to the welfare state that the political establishment here has made foundational. A massive number of citizens receive Medicaid, food stamps, universal early child care, free college tuition and more.

No matter who is elected the next governor the state cannot and will not let their golden goose come in harm's way. 

WATCHING AND WAITING  

Gregg Hull is not calling his Election Night party a victory party but the former three term mayor of Rio Rancho remains the front-runner for the GOP nomination because of a solid metro area base, even as he grapples with an under-financed campaign. His closest rival is Doug Turner with Duke Rodriguez hoping for a final days comeback.

Hull won the March GOP preprimary convention and has been ahead in the two independent media polls. A poll released over the weekend and sponsored by 2022 GOP governor nominee Mark Ronchetti's podcast shows Hull again leading the field although the race is closer. Hull drew 33 percent, Turner 30, Rodriguez 12 and 25 percent were still undecided.

Hull celebrated his third in a row polling leading in a fund-raising missive but cautioned that he will be attacked in the final stretch: 

Gregg is at 33%, leading the field. That's not an accident. It's what happens when a candidate has a real record to run on. . .But a lead only matters if we protect it. . .The other campaigns know the clock is ticking, and they're going to throw everything they have at us. We need to answer with a strong finish. We need you to vote and we need you to donate. 

Turner said on the socials: 

We have the momentum and are winning this race!!

How much Hull leads by is subject to speculation but hard cash bettors at Polymarket are not yet wavering. Late Monday Hull was being given a 88 percent chance of winning the nomination. He surged from 79 percent in the hours following release of the podcast poll.  

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Journal editor & Bregman

Deb Haaland's cancellation of a town hall appearance sponsored by the Albuquerque Journal prompted an emotional and harsh reaction from the newspaper's executive editor, who decried Haaland's refusal to answer questions as "terrifying" and warned that "we are going to be investigating her."

The paper also ripped into the leading Democatic gubernatorial candidate in an editorial, calling her refusal to appear "part of a disturbing pattern." 

The editor's remarks were made Tuesday at the beginning of the Journal's Town Hall for Dem Guv candidate Sam Bregman who agreed to be questioned by a panel of Journal reporters as well as conservative opinion writer Jeff Tucker. (Full video here.) 

Haaland first agreed to appear at the event but then canceled because of the presence of Tucker who wrote a scathing column about Haaland that her supporters criticized as personally demeaning. The column ran over a headline labeling the candidate a "know-nothing." 

The paper said in their editorial that they had agreed to take Tucker off the stage if Haaland agreed to debate Bregman. 

Journal Executive Editor Jay Newton-Small declared that Haaland's refusal to appear makes her a prime target for the paper's investigative reporters: 

Every single time a candidate hides from you, it is very worrying. . .She canceled on us because she cannot answer any questions and that is terrifying to me.. ..The next four years, if she wins, guess what?" We are going to be investigating her because that is scary to me. If you do not have a candidate that cannot answer a simple question or debate an opponent and answer in public what your beliefs are, then that is really, really scary.

Haaland did sit for an extended interview with the Journal's Dan Boyd for the paper's profiles of all the governor candidates. 

IMPACT? 

The political implications of Haaland rejecting the Journal are modest on the campaign trail but could be more severe if and when she assumes the governorship. 

However, the Journal is diminished when it comes to their investigative powers. During her tongue-lashing of Haaland, Newton Small pointed out that the paper is soliciting public donations to beef up the investigative unit.

That the Journal needs to ask readers for financial support--akin to a nonprofit--speaks volumes about their financial condition in the Internet age and one reason why Haaland's campaign probably took the risk of holding her back from the Town Hall.

Another reason is that Haaland is a world apart from the Journal which has veered further right in recent years. Their readership is simply not in the Democrats wheelhouse. That makes Haaland immune to its editorial reach in the election but could have repercussions if she moves into the Fourth Floor 

The newspaper's scorching of Haaland could not have been done without publisher William Lang giving the go ahead. He is known as a steady eddy business type but the paper's harsh tone over Haaland raises the issue of the influence of the next generation of Langs who are in line to take over leadership.

Pepper Lang is the nephew of the late publisher Tom Lang and works closely with Bill Lang (William Pepperday Lang). Pepper Lang serves as Vice President of Strategic Development for the Journal. His focus has been centered on business and strategic development and supporting the local business community. 

One of the Journal's strategies includes selling off 287,000 square feet of land and buildings they own at Journal Center in the NE Heights of ABQ to ensure operating funds for the paper which this year celebrates 100 years under the Lang family. Unless Haaland and the paper make the peace, the years after the 100th could be known as "The War Years." 

SENATE CONTEST

Former state Rep. Bob Perls, running against Dem Sen. Ben Ray Lujan as a candidate from the newly recognized Forward NM party, still has work to do before he can make that challenge a reality. We reported on Perls' run Wednesday but in a first posting did not mention that he needs 7,100 petition signatures by June 25 to ensure a ballot spot in November. That's a high hurdle and we asked him about it:

We have funding to do a professional texting campaign so we will see! Not easy for sure. We are working to get Michael Vigil, CPA on the ballot for state auditor as well and he needs the same number of signatures. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.