Amy Barela

For the first time in state history a major political party will not have a candidate running for a United States Senate seat. 

This epic fail of the NMGOP was revealed this week when Christopher Vanden Heuvel, the lone Republican running in the June primary failed to submit enough valid signatures to qualify for the ballot. That sets up Democratic Senator Ben Ray Lujan to score a second term with only token opposition, if any at all. 

The senate ballot mishap underscores the perilous state of the GOP. 

The party holds no statewide elected executive offices and no seats in the five -member congressional delegation. The governor is a Democrat and both chambers of the legislature overwhelmingly so. The five-member state Supreme Court is all Democratic. 

Lujan is receiving a symbolic primary challenge from Democratic Socialist Matt Dodson. The GOP's only hope now is to find someone to run against Lujan under their banner as an independent or as a Libertarian or other minor party. Whatever happens, it all amounts to a free ride for Lujan.

Besides highlighting the crisis of the NMGOP's long-term relevance, the failure to field a Lujan opponent could also hurt their already long shot chances to take the Governor's office in November. That would require a strong turnout and with no branded Republican senate candidate at the top of the ticket, it becomes even more problematic. 

NMGOP Chairwoman Amy Barela takes the hit for not having a back-up plan and for not riding herd on Vanden Heuvel's campaign and ensuring the party fielded a contender. 

The GOP senate debacle also emphasizes that New Mexico has not just become essentially a one party state but appears to be slipping into a California type environment where Republicans seek out conservative Democrats to support. That has already happened in some instances. 

THE GOP CRISIS 

Joe Monahan

The true nature of this Republican existential crisis is often obscured by a sitting Democratic governor who is a political split personality, adopting progressive policies on environment and gun control policy and the like but going all in with the GOP on crime. 

Her continued failure on those crime bills is the "tell" of how her positioning on "bipartisanship" remains largely irrelevant in a state unwilling to elect Republicans and who do not share the bifurcated view of the electorate that she grew up with.

The near landslide December re-election of ABQ Mayor Tim Keller where crime was a top issue served to reinforce the hardening of the Democratic position in the state's most populous county which is a must-have for statewide electoral success. 

In addition, the "bothsidesism" of the legacy media frequently disguises the dire state of the state's minority party. Their narratives continue to feature the GOP as an integral part of lawmaking and political tension even as their philosophical influence has been arguably nil--and for years not months. 

For example, universal child care, the constitutional amendment for early childhood education, the adoption of environmental rules, gun restrictions, oversight of ICE and the ever growing state budget have all been vigorously challenged by the few Republicans still standing. It has been to no avail and again emphasizing--for better or worse--the singularity of New Mexican politics in the absence of a vital opposing force. 

THE BOTTOM LINES 

There are occasional forays into bipartisanship but they are exceedingly rare and mostly insignificant. 

Ours is not an era of bipartisanship. This is an era of extreme polarization where states like New Mexico are becoming a deeper Blue and Red states even more crimson. 

Never mind either side "working across the aisle." When there's hardly anyone left on the other side, why would they? 

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Stapleton

The legislature has avoided any major scandals of late and minor ones too, like lawmakers caught driving drunk or having affairs with employees. But a scandal that rocked La Politica five years ago still casts a shadow over Santa Fe and the state. 

That would be the 2021 massive corruption case against House Majority Floor Leader Sheryl Williams Stapleton that still remains unresolved. Readers ask why and we take a look.

Stapleton, 68, who resigned when the scandal broke, faces federal charges of mail fraud, bribery, conspiracy to commit money laundering, and theft from programs receiving federal funds. The allegations stem from her role at Albuquerque Public Schools where she allegedly funneled millions of dollars to a company owned by co-defendant Joseph Johnson. ​ Her federal trial, originally set for late September 2025, was delayed until March 31 of this year, marking at least the sixth postponement. 

Our Legal Beagles say the latest continuance allows time for plea negotiations, joint defense preparation, and review of evidence. 

There is a list of mundane reasons accounting for the lengthy delay including standard federal case complexities: new defense counsel for Johnson, extensive discovery review, and active plea talks.  

Stapleton, who served from an ABQ SE district from 1995 to her '21 resignation, is under pretrial supervision with weekly check-ins after a prior court tardiness issue. 

The sticking point may be those attempts at getting a plea bargain. Delays are not unusual for fraud cases involving public funds and high-profile defendants but plea deals often resolve them and avoid a trial. That has yet to happen in the Stapleton case. 

The March 2026 trial date suggests resolution may come soon, but further delays remain possible. A final Beagle note:  

The case was initially filed in state court almost 5 years ago where it sat around for a while. The feds adopted it and unquestionably had problems with the different procedures and personalities used in NM courts. The state and fed legal worlds’ connections can be not only tenuous, but are often marked by  jealousy, backbiting, politicking, and outright contempt.t can be enough to make the Roundhouse seem like a paragon of cooperation.  

BACK AGAIN

Rep. Matthews

As they did in '24, progressive Democrats are again targeting moderate Dem state Rep. Marian Matthews.

She was hailed by Dems in 2020 when she won her District 27 seat in the far ABQ NE Heights that had long been held by GOP state Rep. Larry Larranaga--who died in 2018--in what was once a conservative bastion. But that's no longer enough.

Her progressive primary foe this time is attorney Abby Foster. She ran a close race for ABQ city council in 2023, losing narrowly incumbent Republican Brook Bassan. 

Foster does not appear to be attacking the middle of the road Mathews yet but that's sure to come. So what's the left's beef with Marian? 

Matthews, an attorney, voted against a Paid Family and Medical Leave proposal, citing a potential burden on employees and employers via payroll taxes. Progressives criticized this as a failure to support workers. 

Matthews has prioritized like issues like crime reduction, healthcare cost controls, and bail/tort reforms over progressive legislation, warning of unintended consequences like those seen in prior reforms. 

She managed to win her '24 primary with 56 percent of the vote but Foster is seen as a much better candidate making this a primary race to watch. 

As for the Republicans, they have an outside shot but the district continues to trend Blue. 

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MLG and Morales

Lieutenant Governor Howie Morales did something different than most of his predecessors--he did not run for Governor. That may or may not occur with the next occupant of the office but if they did run, their odds of taking the top job are exceptionally low. No second banana has risen to the top in modern state history. 

Gov. Richardson looked to build out the post under Lt. Gov. Denish but that did not survive the test of time as the position again withered when John Sanchez served under GOP Gov. Martinez. That the two were far from fast friends didn't help. Morales' role has shrunk even further as MLG basically ignored the position, although Morales and her got along. 

That being said and picking up from last Thursday' big blog on the Feb. 3 statewide candidate filings, this year there are competitive races for the state's #2.

The lt. governor has few specific duties except to preside over the state senate, act as a general ombudsman with citizens and serve as Acting Governor when the real deal is out of state. The other unstated but most crucial duty is to keep tabs on the Governor's heartbeat in case something goes wrong and they have to take over. 

DEM ACTION 

On the Democratic side in the June 2 primary, Land Commissioner Stephanie Garcia Richard gave up the nomination chase when it became clear that the better-known Maggie Toulouse Oliver, Secretary of State, would get in the contest.

The SOS enters the race against ABQ Dem state Senator Harold Pope as the clear favorite because of her two elected terms as SOS and two terms as Bernalillo County Clerk. She scored big wins in the state's most populous county in all of her elections.

Pope, who jumped in early, would be the first Black Lt. Governor. If Deb Haaland were to win the Guv nomination and MTO were to win, they would be the first all female major party ticket in state history. 

Some Pope supporters say he would be a better balance and attract more men and minorities. But political identity which has played a major role in state Dem politics may tilt against him. Haaland would be the first Native American elected governor and with MTO the Dems would have that historic first.

As for qualifications, both Pope and MTO are more than qualified for the post that pays $144,714.

GOP AND GALLEGOS 

Gallegos

On the GOP side, state Senator David Gallegos is the likely nominee in a race against ABQ attorney A. Blair Dunn and ABQ ordained minister Manny Lardizabal.

Gallegos, whose career was in natural gas, was first elected to his Lea/Eddy County seat in 2020. He is not up for re-election until '28 so he can run for lieutenant governor without giving up the seat. 

As the only political pro in the race, Gallegos would complement Guv candidates Duke Rodriguez and Doug Turner who have never held elective office. 

For candidate Gregg Hull of Rio Rancho, Gallegos would provide geographic and ethnic balance. 

Just don't clean out your office early, Senator, not the way this year is shaping up for the Dems.

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MLG's scoreboard was lit up with a win as a compromise was crafted that protects her landmark universal child care bill but that same board is dimmed by her continued resistance to reforming the troubled Children, Youth and Families Department where so many child abuse cases have been botched. 

This represents perhaps the most compelling irony of Lujan Grisham's tenure. Her child care concept now leads the nation as her handling of CYFD lags the nation. 

The compromise coming out of Senate Finance adopts some copays for wealthier families who along with all others are eligible for free child care. 

There was concern that the program would be too expensive over the long haul if all families were included but Sen. Bill Soules was among those pointing out that a nearly obscene amount of money rests in the Early Childhood Trust Fund--$11 billion--that can be tapped to extend the program well into the future. 

On CYFD, ABQ Dem State Rep. Eleanor Chavez can't get the Governor to release her grip and support a a constitutional amendmnt (HJ4) that would finally take management of the agency out of the Governor's office and place it with a three member commission appointed by the Governor, House Speaker and Senate President. 

After years of turmoil and tragedy under numerous governors this is a last gasp measure that does not require approval of the Governor but does require a majority of both the Senate and House in order to send it to voters for their required approval. What Chavez needs is moral support from the executive and more of her fellow Democratic progressive women joining her effort. 

Rep. Chavez

There is much hope that free child care will not only alleviate the worry of working parents over what to do with their kids, but also flag possible child abuse and/or neglect issues that otherwise might not surface. That's where CYFD would come into play but in its current condition hope fades that it is up to the task. 

Other fears are getting enough trained child care workers and proper facilities but CYFD watchdogs like state Rep. Rebecca Dow and Sen. Crystal Brantley are on top of that.

Massive investments in early childhood education (approved by state voters) and MLG's universal child care lay a rock solid foundation. It is CYFD's future that is the missing link to complete a transformation that in ten years time could prove if not miraculous certainly extraordinary. Completion of the job will require a gubernatorial vision where these two worlds don't collide, but complement each other. 

A DIFFERENT SIDE 

MLG is known for her stubbornness but she recently showed a different side when it comes to one aspect of the state's child well-being crisis:  

. . . .(The Governor) now regrets signing the Comprehensive Addiction and Recovery Act bill into law, which was supposed to support babies born with drugs in their system. “We were releasing, after they were well enough to go home, infants in the care of highly drug-addicted parents who were not required to take any service or get treatment for their addiction. Now I don’t know if there is any better recipe for a disaster in America than that one,” she said.

Last summer, the governor issued an order that a judge had to decide whether babies could go home. She said that out of 180 cases so far, in 178, a judge ruled that under no circumstance was the baby safe at home. Lujan Grisham said since then, they haven’t had babies dying. 

Now, can the same logic be applied to CYFD? 

WHAT'S OFFERED? 

This reader, a possible swing voter, sums up the problems facing the NMGOP as it preps for the '26 campaign: 

What does the NM GOP offer? More Trump, more ICE chaos? My big three issues are income equality, clean energy and protecting our children from gun violence. I’ll add a fourth, due process for immigrants and Americans. I’m not a partisan these days. I line up best with the never Trumpers. I don’t love the Dems. But the Dems in this state better align with my priorities. Back to my question, what does the NM GOP offer us? If it’s Trump, it’s a hard pass. 

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New Mexico may return to a competitive two party state someday but looking at this week's filings for the statewide offices for the June 2 primary that day seems as distant as Cuba is from Carlsbad. 

All congressional and statewide office filings here.

Take the US Senate race, a dismal nonstarter if there ever was one. Sen. Ben Ray Lujan, seeking a second term, is getting his ticket punched early. Democratic socialist Matt Dodson is making a symbolic play in the primary. Republicans have fielded unknown Christopher Vanden Heuvel who previously ran unsuccessfully for the Rio Rancho city council.

Luján's FEC filing for the final quarter of 2025 shows $778.9K raised, $368K spent, and $3.7M cash on hand. His only challenge is to make sure he stays healthy. As for all that moolah, he might consider helping Dems more in need. 

We'll skip the Governor's race which has been blogged ad infinitum for another day as well as the contests for Lt. Gov. and jump to the US House action--or inaction.  

DISTRICT 2 

The state's three US House seats also appear to be a bust for the R's--and that includes District 2-- the onetime swing southern seat held by Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez now seeking a third term. 

Vasquez drew a Dem challenger, Tom Wakely, who ran for Congress in Texas and now lives in Columbus, NM and calls himself an "economic populist." This too is a symbolic run albeit one with a message that has appeal. 

On the GOP side Greg Cunningham, a Marine veteran and tough-on-crime former APD cop faces ABQ's Jose Orozco. Cunningham has run unsuccessfully for the state House on the westside. Orozco is a former DEA contractor. He has raised $212,000. Cunnigham reports donations of $171,000 in the early going. 

Will the national GOP again commit to this race after losing it by 10,000 votes in '24? If they do, will it matter? Everyone and their uncle is now calling the seat lean Democrat. It only isn't if Vasquez, who has struggled to fully nail the territory down, makes a major screw-up.

STANSBURY SEAT 

Rep. Stansbury

In District 1 based in ABQ, Dem Rep. Melanie Stansbury has drawn three below-the radar Republicans seeking to oppose here. Her often ultra-liberal views  drive the GOP and others up the wall but her base looks impregnable.

The problem for the R's is that Stansbury knows her material, really likes the job and in turn is well-liked here and in DC. She's also the only member of the delegation to frequently engage the national media by carrying an anti-Trump banner. Those base voters can't get enough. 

The 46 year old is running for a third elected term and already is outgrowing the seat. But no senate opportunity is on the horizon. A climb further up the House ladder is the order of the day.

LEGER FERNANDEZ

A quiet performer but well-regarded in much of the sprawling northern 3rd District, Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez is getting what should be a respectable challenge from GOP Rep. Martin Zamora, who is giving up his Santa Rosa area state House seat to make the run. The district looks more enticing to the GOP since redistricting. 

Leger Fernandez, 66, a liberal voice who leans heavily into the districts large Native and Hispanic communities, is going for a fourth term. With Trump's immigration policies costing him inroads he made in this area in 2024, the Dems are positioned for the win.

LAND COMMISSION CLASH 

Perry

There is justifiable excitement on both sides of the aisle for one down ballot race--the contest for state land commissioner. Three Dem candidates and one R--all solid--have filed with the SOS.

The Dems are former Sen. Heinrich aide Juan Sanchez, Santa Fe county state Rep. Matt McQueen and Tucumcari rancher Jonas Moya who lives in ABQ. There's an ethnic vote split developing with McQueen hoping to benefit. Fund-raising could be the deciding factor.

Hopes run high within the GOP for Michael Perry, a Chaves county commissioner and a former assistant state land commissioner, who is their sole candidate. He is indeed a strong contender and if Republicans are finally going to break their long statewide drought for elective office, look to this race.

NASTY SOS RACE 

Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver is termed out and is running for the Dem nod for lt. governor. She is a tough act to follow. First elected in 2016, she has delivered with well-run elections. Three Dems and one R are running to replace her. Two of them are heavyweight county clerks, Santa Fe's Katharine Clark and Dona Ana's Amanda López Askin. They are joined by Sonya Smith, a former Veterans Services cabinet secretary.

López-Askin

Clark and López-Askin are hyper-ambitious and both come to the main ring of La Politica prepared. It took no time for the race to get nasty among their supporters, setting the stage for later jousting between the pair. Maybe Sonya can raise some money and run it up the middle but it's a long shot. 

The two county clerks will demonstrate in the June primary campaign what insiders already know--that if either is eventually elected they are likely to follow in the steps of MTO as a statewide player. But first the winner will have to prove their mettle on the trail and later by administering the multi-layered SOS office. 

As for the GOP, no R's need apply for this one but Ramon Goolsby of Rio Rancho is doing her party a favor and taking one for the team as their '26 nominee.

SLEEPY AG RACE 

As for the attorney general's race, when has an incumbent Dem not been re-elected? Raul Torrez is seeking a second four year term with GOP ABQ attorney Sam Kane Sr. filing for the Republican slot. Like his predecessors there is no singular achievement that Torrez will run on but he hasn't done anything to offend. That and history puts him comfortably in the driver's  seat. 

THE FINAL TWO 

State Auditor Joseph Maestas and State Treasurer Laura Montoya drew no Dem primary or GOP general election opposition. Both credit clean living, prayer and yoga. 

WHITMAN (CONT.)

In a first draft Wednesday we identified Meg Whitman as a Republican. She ran for the California GOP gubernatorial nomination in 2010 under the GOP banner. But she is now a Democrat, reports a longtime reader who heard Whitman state her Dem party affiliation at a recent meeting of the ABQ Economic Forum. Whitman's registration is not yet reflected in the NM voter file, according to a Dem consultant. 

Whitman was named ambassador to Kenya in 2022 by President Biden. We wrote about her in reference to her apparent interest in being appointed the next UNM President. We also added to that blog that her husband, Griffith Harsh, became chair of Neurosurgery at UNM in Jan. 2025.

BOB MCNEILL 

Bob McNeill

Finally, we're sad to report the passing of longtime friend and state politico Bob McNeill. 

A stalwart Dem, Bob served as Chief of Staff to US Senator Joseph Montoya and as a cabinet secretary under Gov. Toney Anaya. He served as a board member for NM Voices for Children among many other public affairs activities. 

An attorney originally from PA, Bob badly wanted to be elected to political office in his own right but various runs, including a try for AG in '86 that ended in a cliff-hanger, did not pan out. 

Away from politics, Bob, who died at 87, was an ace race car driver and car collector often seen at events with Charlie Daniels, the late state Supreme Court Justice who shared his passion. 

During a last visit with him recently, his craving for La Politica was undiminished as he handicapped the Dem Guv primary race and other contests. 

Hasta la vista, Bob. 

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Meg Whitman

Why in the name of a discounted burrito is one of the world's richest people writing an op-ed in the Sunday paper about the future of New Mexico's economy?

Good question. Let's take a look. 

Meg Whitman, according to Forbes, is worth $3.7 billion and ranks as the 1,100 richest person on the planet. An outlet called The Richest (yes, for real) says of her wealth: 

Her fortune stems primarily from eBay stock during her 1998–2008 CEO tenure, plus compensation from HP (2011–2018) exceeding $35 million annually at peaks, and board roles at Procter & Gamble and others. 

Whitman, now an ABQ resident who assumes the title of the state's wealthiest citizen (by far), ran unsuccessfully for the 2010 GOP nomination for governor of California, so that causal op-ed she penned raised the question of whether she was looking at seeking elective office again--perhaps right here in River City.

Apparently not. Whitman, who spent a breathtaking $144 million of her own money on that 2010 campaign, could conceivably try to unseat Sen. Ben Ray Lujan who is seeking a second term this year. But he can breath easy. We're informed that's not in the cards.  (And apparently Whitman is now a Democrat, reports a longtime reader who said she heard Whitman report the switch at a recent meeting of the Economic Forum.) 

EYES ON UNM? 

But what Whitman may have her eyes on, reports one of our Senior Alligators, is the presidency of the University of New Mexico. And why not? Meg has an MBA from Harvard so she just might fit in here at our very own Harvard on the Rio Grande. Or maybe not. 

The UNM Board of Regents is taking applications to replace outgoing President Garnett Stokes. No confirmation yet on whether Whitman, 69, has applied. Although she is known as a moderate, in this woke era (or really any other) awarding the presidency to someone in good standing with the world oligarchy might rub the common folk the wrong way. 

Or maybe not. She does have a strong Dem connection.

Whitman says she and her husband moved to ABQ in February 2025 after she served as US Ambassador to Kenya for two and a half years, appointed by President Biden (who condemned the rise of an oligarchy in his exit speech.) 

UNM CONNECTION  

Whitman's husband, Griffith Harsh, serves as the Chair of Neurosurgery at the University of New Mexico School of Medicine. He assumed that role at the start of 2025. 

Sen. Munoz

DEAR GEORGE. . .

Furthering that Dem relationship, in her op-ed Whitman gives a love tap to conservative Democrat and state Senate Finance Committee chairman George Munoz:

Sen. George Muñoz. . .recently announced a bold investment in a quantum computing and emerging technology “moonshot” — a cornerstone of a targeted $1.5 billion package designed to jump-start New Mexico’s innovation economy, accelerate development and commercialization of transformative technologies, and position the state as a national leader. 

Does George, the holder of the UNM purse, get on the phone and put in a good word for Meg with UNM Regents President Paul Blanchard? 

Whitman's op-ed indicates she may need a tutorial in how in the past the state has been led down a primrose path littered with high tech innovations that never came and as a fall in socioeconomic conditions continued. But she does get credit for giving it the college try. What remains to be seen is whether she ends back up in college. 

SPEAKING OF. . .  

Speaking of former ambassadors, former NM Governor Bill Richardson was one--to the United Nations no less. But our long-held fear that Big Bill, one of the more charismatic politicians in state history, would have his legacy irreparably damaged by the Epstein affair, sadly continues to come true. The latest:

 Former Gov. Bill Richardson arranged to meet with Jeffrey Epstein at least nine times after the financier’s Florida conviction on sex crimes, including a visit to Epstein’s private island, newly released records show. Richardson scheduled meetings with Epstein as late as 2018, according to emails included in a batch of more than 3 million documents released by the U.S. Department of Justice. 

Epstein, who owned a large property in southern Santa Fe County called Zorro Ranch, was indicted the following year in New York on federal child sex trafficking charges and died in federal custody just over a month later. . . .

 In 2019. . .a spokesperson for Richardson denied Richardson was Epstein’s friend, claiming “to the best of his recollection,” the former governor had visited Epstein’s ranch outside Santa Fe only once while he was campaigning in 2002. 

Richardson also denied ever visiting Epstein’s private island, Little St. James, in the U.S. Virgin Islands. However, emails and flight logs show the two carried on a relationship in the intervening years, planning meetings at Zorro Ranch, Epstein’s Manhattan home and elsewhere. Richardson visited the private island — where Epstein was accused of sexually abusing numerous girls — in 2010, records indicate. 

Emails suggest he visited Epstein’s island in November 2010.. . Richardson and his wife would be visiting St. Thomas in two days, and Richardson wanted to call Epstein after they arrived, an aide to Richardson wrote in an email to Epstein’s assistant. Emails between Epstein and someone who appears to be his assistant show them then coordinating Richardson’s visit to the private island. “His wife is here with a group of girl friends so it will just be him,” the aide wrote in an email to Epstein, after talking to Richardson on the phone. Richardson would be free to come in the following two days, the aide wrote.

Cynics will say this information is not startling but the confirmation that Richardson blatantly lied about his involvement with Epstein and that his relationship was even deeper than suspected, may in the future loom larger than the memory of his often productive eight years as governor.

Richardson did escape the indignity of having the Epstein affair featured in his obituary. He died at 75 in 2023. 

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Ken Miyagishima

It will be a head-to head match-up between Deb Haaland and Sam Bregman for the 2026 Democratic gubernatorial nomination. Former Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima has bowed out of the Dem primary, announcing he will run for Governor as an independent. 

That's a plus for BernCo District Attorney Bregman who faces an uphill climb against the onetime Interior Secretary. Miyagishima and Bregman have both been vying for moderate Dem voters as well as independents who will be able to cast ballots for the first time this year in state primaries. Now Bregman has that field to himself. 

As he headed for the exits, Miyagishima said:  

Moving forward requires us to come together, regardless of party lines. By becoming an independent candidate, I aim to foster a political environment that embraces fresh ideas and encourages community involvement. “If New Mexico wants more hyper-partisan national politics, they have options, if they want a Governor for all the people all the time, I’m here.” 

Much of the women's vote in the female majority state Dem party is lined up behind Haaland. Bregman now avoids a split in the male vote that is partial to him.

Haaland, meanwhile, rolls out an endorsement from 88 year old actor and activist Jane Fonda who has been a leading critic of Trump and ICE and whose PAC is centered on climate change. That enhances Haaland's standing with her critical left wing.   

Jane Fonda

It's noteworthy because DA Bregman's announcement that he would arrest ICE agents if they violate citizen rights--accompanied by a TV buy--went over well with not only progressives but Hispanic moderates and others who have soured on Trump. 

Haaland continues to hold the pole position with four months to go but Bregman has had a good few weeks that got his ebbing momentum revving again and keeps the contest alive.

We can't recall a Dem governor primary more vital. That's not because of transformational changes that the candidates are embracing but because the chances of a Republican candidate have never seemed worse. 

The increasing Dem lean of the state combined with the unpopularity of Trump are making even the governorship--so often a swing position in state history--just another state office that is likely Democratic

While Miyagishima's withdrawal helps moderate Bregman in the Democratic primary, his independent candidacy would hurt the eventual Republican nominee. He needs 14,000 signatures to qualify for  the November ballot. Republicans can only hope he doesn't get them. The ball and chain around their ankle is already too heavy.    

CRIME DROP DEBATE

APD Interim Chief Barker

Our Jan. 29 blog noting the significant drop in ABQ crime in 2025 quoted police for the reasons behind the drop. That brought this:

Joe, I'm writing about this statement in your column: 

"More effective policing--not new laws--appears to be a key factor in the decline. APD says it has gotten better with technology and targeting and the homicide team has been increased. . .None of this plays into the playbook that more laws are essential to cleaning up crime." 

There's an inconvenient truth here--crime is declining across the country. A secular decline in all 50 states can't be the result of "better" police work, unless you believe all 50 states got markedly better at catching criminals at the same time. I think the more likely story is the decline in fentanyl potency, which is the result of the Chinese government cracking down on exporters who were sending the raw materials to Mexican cartels. Take a look at this article reporting how fentanyl overdoses saw dramatic declines in both the United States and Canada at exactly the same time. 

This is an inconvenient story for both Republicans and Democrats: It is inconvenient for Republicans because it tends to show that throwing people in jail doesn't have a meaningful effect on overall crime rates. This makes sense when you think about how most crime is petty property and violent crime that is driven by drug users, an explanation that you have repeatedly subscribed to on your blog. 

It is inconvenient for Democrats because it tends to show that the government can do little, if anything, to address drug addiction. It was Chinese bureaucrats, not increased access to behavioral health care and opioid antagonist medicine such as naloxone, that drove the decline in overdoses.  

JUNIOR GATOR  

A self-described "Junior Alligator" says one explanation for the decline in homicides in ABQ doesn't add up:

How does “more policing” prevent murders? Really shouldn’t APD say: “We have gotten better at making murder arrests?” Because unless APD can point to even one murder they stopped, this is a badly worded attempt at PR. 

Thanks, Junior Gator.

By the way, for newcomers here a "Senior Alligator" is our moniker for our most trusted sources for off the record info on all things pertaining to New Mexico politics. 

How we arrived at the name is a long story but those awarded the coveted title must meet several requirements. They must be a minimum age of 45, contributed at least three substantial and accurate exclusive contributions to the blog, and it is preferred that they have sought and lost elective office. (The losers of La Politica tend to learn more than the winners.)

The original Senior Alligator (circa 2003) was the late Andrew Leo Lopez of ABQ's South Valley. One year we thought he was so full of himself that we bet him $500 on the outcome of that year's race for Governor. 

We lost. 

Hey, that's why they're called Senior Alligators.  

This is it. . . The Home of New Mexico Politics.  

Rep. Andrea Romero (Moore, Journal)

Welcome back.

At the Roundhouse: ICE may not melt away here even as the bill banning local governments from contracting with the three ICE detention centers is on the fast track to the Governor. . .

Dem legislators are sending a strong message of disapproval--led by Santa Fe Rep. Andrea Romero--of the agency's conduct. The House passed the ICE ban on a 40-29 vote, despite ardent opposition from rural Republicans who say the resulting lost jobs would be a severe economic hit and also warned of possible Trump retaliation.

But will those jobs really be lost? Probably not.

The three centers in Torrance, Cibola, and Otero counties are privately managed so they could keep running via direct ICE-private contracts, which the bill doesn't touch. The New Mexico law is similar to those in California and Maryland where facilities adapted and which seems the likely outcome here. 

If Santa Fe was intent on closing the centers it could do what a new California proposal does--impose a 50% tax on profits made by corporations running ICE-funded detention centers.

While the impact may be more symbolic than substantial, the stirring and important debate over ICE and passage of HB9 may be the most-remembered event of the 30 day session. 

It could also be the most politically impactful in determining who will be the next Governor. Deb Haaland and Sam Bregman have been locked in a contest over who would best respond to the Trump administration on immigration. The issue continues to send demonstrators to the streets of ABQ and soon will be sending them to the June primary polls. 

AN APPLE A DAY

The state's doctor shortage, especially primary care physicians, is not just about malpractice laws or quality of life issues. The fact is compared to other states too many New Mexicans don't take care of themselves. and that creates more demand for doctor visits.

The state's elevated rates of poverty, obesity, drug addiction and related chronic conditions amplify the shortages beyond what's seen in healthier states. 

New Mexico ranks near the bottom nationally in obesity with a 32-35% adult rate and has a poverty rate at 18-20 percent. Opioid and fentanyl overdoses remain among the highest per capita, straining behavioral health services statewide.

All this health dysfunction drives heavy demand for primary care, addiction treatment, and specialists and compounds the impact of the doctor exodus.

Multiple state departments have been working on the obesity and drug issues but to muted effect. Is it time for lawmakers to double down on outreach programs, including more bilingual messaging on personal health? After all, it's still true that "an apple a day keeps the doctor away."

MISSING MD'S (CONT.)

More now on what keeps the doctors away--or maybe doesn't--depending on what statistics are being passed around. 

Reader Ron Nelson wrote here Thursday of the inability of the state to nail down just how may docs are practicing and in doing so mentioned the role of the NM Medical Board. A member of that Board since 2019 responded while opting for anonymity: 

Our roles are to license and discipline physicians and other health care providers. We have no responsibility to recruit or retain physicians. We license applicants that have met all the qualifications. We only collect data on licensees but not what they are doing in NM if anything. 

We are licensing a record numbers of providers. However, this is in large part a function of the increase in telemedicine and temporary/traveling providers. Often, these providers work for large companies and may have over 40 licenses to their name. They may not even know all of the places where they are licensed. And often it is a staff person filling out the applications.

Having a valid license here does not mean the provider practices here. Finding that out requires data about billing. If it is a cash only business, there will not be billing records. If there are billing records, they

are often traced to the company that employs the provider and one cannot be sure it is the provider himself providing care. We often encounter providers who have a license here but have never practiced in NM. They have the license just in case. And if they are telemedicine, they do not need to have a physical address in NM to be licensed. So using address changes is not reliable either. 

This is a challenge all states are facing. Workforce numbers are difficult to pin down with accuracy. So having high numbers of licensees and a scarcity of providers can both be true. And we have good reason to believe that both are true. What is curious is that the state does collect surveys asking what the licensee is doing and what their practice is like. But as your reader pointed out, the big computer hack to the Regulation and Licensing Department database a few years ago has caused much of that data to disappear. 

All of the board members are volunteers and we spend many many hundreds of hours a year collectively trying to sort this and other issues out. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.   

Even when crime raged at historic levels the legislature was getting nowhere with a tough on crime agenda. 

Now with 2025 stats showing homicide and overall crime down significantly in the state's largest city that agenda--epitomized by the repeated failure of the pre-trial detention bill--appears fated to stall again.  

Any casual news consumer can tell that crime is nowhere near as omnipresent as a couple of years ago--so much so that the narrative "that crime may be down but people don't feel it" may finally be unwinding. 

That certainly seemed to be the case at the December '25 ABQ mayoral run-off when Mayor Keller decisively won a third consecutive term despite being pummeled in TV ads that highlighted the "750 murders" that occurred under his watch.

The final ABQ homicide tally for '25 shows 65 slayings, a far cry from the record 121 in 2022 and more reflective of the average over the past ten years. 

It is not only homicides that have peaked. As Downtown News reports. . .

Across the city in 2025, just about every category of crime was down. APD reports that property crimes (auto theft, auto burglary, residential burglary, commercial burglary, shoplifting) were down 23 percent through November in the aggregate, while violent crimes excluding homicide (aggravated assault, sex crimes, robbery) were down 12 percent.   

The decline in the murder rate provides a sigh of relief signaling that the lengthy and vicious crime spike was not here to stay--and national trends confirm that. 

Other crimes that also shot up in the pandemic era are now settling at historic levels--still too high--but more normalized for the NM public to digest and deal with. 

More effective policing--not new laws--appears to be a key factor in the decline. 

APD says it has gotten better with technology and targeting and the homicide team has been increased. MLG's controversial deployment of the National Guard to the city last year may also have helped by relieving pressure on the cops. 

None of this plays into the playbook that more laws are essential to cleaning up crime. What it does point to is the need for constantly improving the effectiveness and innovation of local police departments which are amply funded. That's where legislators and the LFC may want to focus as the state finally and gladly closes what was a brutal chapter in crime history. 

MISSING MD'S

Reader Ron Nelson takes on the confusion over the doctor shortage in the state as noted on the Tuesday blog:

Joe, it astonishes me that this state cannot account for the number of physicians it has practicing and that we are not looking at our medical board for more accuracy. 

All licensing agencies are to submit to the governor an annual report that breaks down the numbers by county. I believe where the confusion lies with the many traveling doctors and nurses. They get a license good for a couple of years then move to other assignments after their contract expires. That active license sits in the data base for more than a year or so as “active.” 

Then there are doctors who get hired by our health systems then decide to leave but continue to renew their licenses even though they don’t live here. Both the nursing board and medical board have a rule that if you move you’re supposed to file a change of address. Some do, some don't. I believe the glitch is in the program where it can’t cross reference an address to an active license to see if the individual is in state. 

DISGRUNTLED DEM 

A disgruntled Dem reader writes:

Joe, the progressive wing of the Democrats has led and failed this state. Too soft on juvenile crime, no progress on the failed education system as well as a failed CYFD. Now after seven years MLG saw the light and set forth an Executive Order to stop kid’s from sleeping in CYFD offices. What took so long? We as Democrats have failed our children. No amount of "free" will fix a failing system. I only hope the next administration, Democrat or Republican, see the years of failure and truly take steps to right the ship. 

As always, we welcome your comments, criticisms and the venting of existential angst. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.