Sanchez & Perry (Moore, Journal)

New Mexico's political class continues to break with vehement grassroots opposition to Project Jupiter, and that could mean a major break for the controversial data center development near Santa Teresa following the Nov. 3 election.

In a recent KKOB radio debate (audio here) Democratic land commissioner candidate Juan Sanchez signaled the possible reversal of a decision made by current Land Commissioner and Dem lieutenant governor nominee Stephanie Garcia Richard. She denied Jupiter the right of way across state trust land to construct a natural gas pipeline that would fuel the center being built by tech giant Oracle. Here's Sanchez:

Cunningham and Vasquez

Did Republican Greg Cunningham even once mention the name of President Trump during the one and only TV debate for the southern-based congressional seat? Not that we heard. 

(Full KRQE debate here starting at 1:09.)

Like a hurricane suddenly growing from a Category 1 to a Category 5, inflation, the war in Iran, and Trump's policies regarding both have swept over the nation and sent the GOP reeling. Rather than trying to dig out of that deep hole, Cunningham did his best to deflect (or ignore) Dem. Rep. Gabe Vasquez's continuous attacks on the administration and attempted to score points on crime and other localized issues. It was an uphill battle. 

--Pressed repeatedly on whether he supported the war in Iran, Cunningham said he did not support Iran having a nuclear weapon and that he supported the troops—a non-answer—while Vasquez emphasized that he has voted six times against the unpopular war that has sent energy prices soaring. 

--Cunningham's attempt to rattle Vasquez over his "no" vote on a bill to compensate Trinity Site "downwinders," met with the response that he has the support of the downwinders' coalition, headed by Tina Cordova, and that he voted against the measure because it was part of a bill containing GOP culture-war policy riders. 

--Cunningham, 60, a retired APD narcotics detective, pressed hard on the now-notorious 2020 video showing Vasquez, then a Las Cruces city councilor, wearing a disguise at a protest and calling to defund the police. That video has been rolled out in each of Vasquez's two previous election bids for the 2nd Congressional District and remains the centerpiece of the GOP effort. Cunningham prosecuted the matter effectively, forcing Vasquez to admit he was indeed the masked person in the video. The problem? Vasquez, 42, has repeatedly voted over four years for funding and other measures supportive of law enforcement--and he's gathered the endorsements of sheriffs across the district. 

Trailing Vasquez 48 to 44 percent in this month's ABQ Journal poll, Cunningham simply could not break through the dense fog of the Iran war and the resulting affordability crisis surrounding Republican candidates in contested districts. In the Albuquerque-area 1st Congressional District, Republican candidate Didi Okpareke threw Trump overboard on the war. That was not an option for Cunningham, whose base voters on the rural east side remain supportive of Trump. That dynamic put him between a rock and a hard place. 

Cunningham's calm, collected, and mature demeanor served him well during the one-hour confrontation, and he may have put to rest fears that he is a raging MAGA minion. However, he simply lacked the ammunition to take down the two-term incumbent. Vasquez, perceived as weak since his first run for the seat in 2022, has grown into the role and appears more sure-footed and confident. Cunningham and the Republicans have put up a good fight, but you can't outrun a hurricane. 

UPFRONT AND PERSONAL

Nikki Santos

New Mexicans are learning more about the personal lives of their congressional representatives as campaigns head toward the general election.

During their Friday night television debate, candidates were asked to share a positive attribute about their opponent. Republican challenger Cunningham, a combat Marine, former APD detective, and father of six, offered up surprising news: Democratic U.S. Rep. Gabe Vasquez is about to become a father for the first time. Vasquez thanked Cunningham for the recognition but did not elaborate. 

While Vasquez is single, his campaign confirmed earlier this year that he is in a “loving, committed relationship with his partner and fiancée" Nikki Santos, a former Biden administration appointee and  member of the Coeur d’Alene Tribe, was recently named CEO of the National Native American Boarding School Healing Coalition. The release announcing her appointment said: "She lives in Washington, D.C., with her daughter, partner, and two dogs."

When it was his turn, Vasquez commended Cunningham for his long-standing dedication to public service.

The father-to-be disclosure follows another recent revelation regarding Democratic U.S. Rep. Melanie Stansbury who has maintained strict privacy regarding her personal life. But at her recent debate voters learned that Stansbury is now married to the brother of Democratic state Rep. Andrea Romero making Stansbury Romero's sister-in-law. 

When Stansbury’s Republican opponent, Dede Oparake, brought up the relationship during the debate, Stansbury neither confirmed her marriage nor her connection to Romero—who chairs the state’s Truth Commission investigating Jeffrey Epstein’s Zorro Ranch. However, Stansbury did not dispute the claims.

Personal details vary across the rest of the state's congressional delegation: 

U.S. Rep. Teresa Leger Fernández (D): Divorced with three sons who have been featured in her campaign ads.

U.S. Sen. Martin Heinrich (D): Married with two college-aged sons who are not in the spotlight.

U.S. Sen. Ben Ray Luján (D): Single. On the campaign trail he references his family’s experiences caring for his elderly mother and includes her in social media posts.

NO SUPER MAJORITY?

It could be a Blue Wave year, or maybe not. However it comes down in New Mexico, pollster Brian Sanderoff says don't expect head-turning gains by the Democrats in the state House, where they currently hold a 43–25 majority with two vacancies. Says Sanderoff:

I think that there won’t be a significant net change in legislative seats. I think that, because of redistricting over the years, there are a lot of safe Democratic seats [and] a lot of safe Republican seats. . . The rural areas are becoming more conservative, the cities are becoming more liberal, and it’s hard to flip seats anymore.

A supermajority—two-thirds of the 70 members of the House or 47 members—would give House Dems the ability to override a gubernatorial veto and could reshape legislative strategy between the House and governor. With a supermajority, they could also require that approved legislation take effect immediately instead of waiting for the standard effective date.

Records show the last time there was a Dem supermajority in the House (maybe the only time) was in 1992. Democrat Bruce King was governor at the time. The Speaker then was Rep. Raymond Sanchez of ABQ, who got along well with the Governor. Ditto for then-Senate President Manny Aragon.

This is the Home of New Mexico politics.   

This is the Home of New Mexico politics.   

There are no early surprises in the first week of early voting for the 2026 election. About 30,000 votes were cast statewide through Monday, according to the Secretary of State. Democrats dominate the early turnout with 59% of the total, while Republicans sit at 27% and independents account for 14%.

The very early Dem vote is traditionally quite heavier than the GOP whose share should increase as we move closer to Nov. 3.   

If total turnout in the governor’s race reaches around 700,000—matching 2018 and 2022 levels—then over 4% of the total vote is already cast. Early voting is currently limited to absentee ballots and in-person voting at county clerk offices. That expands on October 17, when early voting stations open across the state through October 31.

The latest trend in state party registration shows Democrats slipping below 40%, holding 576,918 registered voters (39.5%). The GOP accounts for 30.5% (445,215), while independents have reached 28.1% (409,219) and minor parties make up 1.9% (27,363).

At this current trajectory, registered independents will soon surpass Republicans. As demonstrated during the recent semi-open primary—when independent voters were first allowed to participate in party primaries—a majority chose Democratic ballots.

That undercuts the GOP argument that Democratic influence is eroding as independent strength grows. These are not the traditional swing voters of past generations who leaned conservative; in a predominantly blue state, today's independents are voting blue.

ENVIROS VS. HEINRICH

Sen. Heinrich

Sen. Martin Heinrich has joined with Republicans to craft a new energy bill that aims to speed up the development of energy projects—especially wind and solar—only to draw fire from an array of environmental groups who normally support Heinrich but now accuse him of "betraying" his long-held environmental practices.

200 environmental groups—usually hardcore supporters of Heinrich—have come out against his latest stab at bipartisan lawmaking:

More than 200 conservation organizations sent a letter today urging Congress to oppose the “Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026,” introduced by Sens. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), Martin Heinrich (D-NM), Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV), and Mike Lee (R-Utah). The bill includes sweeping attacks on the Endangered Species Act that would gut protections for nearly every endangered species across the country.

Heinrich said the bill, expected to be voted on in the Senate after the election, “will mean more energy on the grid, more good-paying jobs, and lower electricity costs for families and businesses." 

Perhaps Heinrich is eyeing his possible assumption of the chairmanship of the powerful Senate Energy Committee next year. It would likely happen if the Democrats take back control of the Senate in November. Heinrich is the ranking Democrat on the committee. Would bipartisanship help him guide that panel, or would he be consumed by opposition from his base supporters?

In March, Heinrich drew guffaws and criticism for bolting from his party and voting to support the nomination of Sen. Markwayne Mullin as Secretary for the Department of Homeland Security. Mullin has since run into a buzzsaw of criticism for ICE going overboard and other actions.

Heinrich has a history of quirkiness when it comes to bipartisanship. In 2014, he spent a week on a deserted island with then-Arizona Senator Jeff Flake for a reality TV show. Now, enviros who have heartily supported him are voting to send Heinrich back to the island. 

EYE CATCHING

This one out of Massachusetts is an eye-catcher: 

Ten years after Massachusetts voters legalized recreational marijuana, they're being asked to reverse course. Massachusetts voters approved recreational marijuana in 2016. . .In September the state reported that recreational marijuana businesses had surpassed $10 billion in sales. If approved, the measure would take effect January 1, 2028. Massachusetts would become the first state to repeal a voter-approved recreational marijuana market. . .Supporters point to concerns about youth access, impaired driving, mental health, and the commercialization of cannabis. They argue that the regulated market has brought consequences voters didn't fully anticipate in 2016. Opponents warn that eliminating recreational sales could push consumers toward illicit markets, eliminate tax revenue, and threaten businesses and jobs. 

New Mexico legalized cannabis in 2021 and the industry immediately boomed. Now its been going through a long bust as supply outweighed demand. 

 MORE CONNY AMENDMENT 4 

With the top of the ticket races looking less competitive, the action shifts down ballot and to that proposal to provide New Mexico legislators a salary. Constitutional Amendment #4 continues to draw reader interest with Alan Schwartz writing:

It is really disappointing to me how our state government continuously exploits the economic naivety of the general population. Case in point, Constitutional Amendment 4. Each individual legislator, 112 in all, would receive a "salary" equivalent to the New Mexico median household income. It should go without saying that the typical "household" income more often than not is based on at least two wage earners if not one working two jobs. The "pro" faction argues "It ties legislator pay to what the rest of us make". If that were true than wouldn't a more accurate comparison be to individuals? Like the 65% of single tax filers who reported income of $45,000 or less. This is a textbook case where the mode tells the story and the mean or median is a distractor. If a true "average" individual was making $65,000 a year it would require an hourly wage of over $30 dollars. And that is for a full year, not the 30/60 the part time Legislature has. 

A "concerned taxpayer" writes of Amendment 4:

Will legislators get to continue getting paid a public salary if they are a teacher? Continue to collect a public pension if they are a retired public employee and a legislator, as well as collect a new public salary and daily $247 per deim while in session? And don't forget forget the extremely generous retirement pension. There is a law that a "regular" public pension paid employee can't double dip and work full time at the legislature without stopping their pension, and if you are a state employee they can't serve in the House or Senate. So how much really will these legislator cost in public taxes? We are asking to put the cart before the horse when we don't address these questions through reform measures. How can any of these legislators complain about too much PAC money in politics when this is the vehicle they are using to convince the public we should pay them? Asking for a friend. 

To answer the question for you and "a friend," there is no prohibition in the amendment to prevent a public employee such as a school teacher from getting the full-time legislative salary that, if approved, would be about $67,000.

THE BOTTOM LINES 

The Haaland campaign comes with a 30 second Spanish language TV ad titled Juntos (Together).  In the Oct.1-9 Journal poll the Dem Guv nominee has the support of roughly 64 percent of non-Anglo voters--including Hispanics and Native Americans compared to 26 percent for Republican nominee Gregg Hull. . .

Another Haaland TV spot--Water--touts the success of the former Secretary of Interior in bringing funding to the state for water infrastructure projects and features former State Engineer Mike Hamman. . .

Sen.Ben Ray Lujan has only token opposition with Republican candidate Larry Marker but he is making the re-election rounds. Here's a TV interview where you can size up how he's doing and here's Marker's website. 

This is the Home of New Mexico politics.   

Vasquez & Cunningham

A look through the sole ABQ Journal poll of New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District paints a grim picture for Republican challenger Greg Cunningham, virtually shutting down his pathways to victory.

To stay competitive, the retired APD detective needed to hold off Democratic incumbent Rep. Gabe Vasquez in the populous urban cores of Bernalillo and Doña Ana counties. Instead, the October 1–9 poll shows Vasquez running away with both strongholds: leading 51–37 in the southern ABQ metro area and 57–36 in Doña Ana County.

Districtwide Vasquez holds a 48–44 lead over Cunningham with 8 percent undecided—a four-point margin that mirrors his 2024 victory over Republican Yvette Herrell (52–48).

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus five percent.  

The only other public poll in the race was conducted Aug. 28 to Sept. 2 by SurveyUSA and showed Vasquez with a 46-43 lead.  

Vasquez, a former Las Cruces city councilor, retains a bedrock local base. Cunningham hails from Albuquerque, but his local track record offers no momentum—having lost back-to-back bids in '22 and '24 against Democratic Rep. Joy Garratt in Westside House District 29. Furthermore, while both candidates are Hispanic, the national GOP brand has eroded among Hispanic voters, leaving Cunningham to pay the price locally.

The Cook Political Report ranks the seat as "Lean Democrat," and this poll, conducted among 338 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent,  solidifies that status as Vasquez seeks a third term.

While national Republicans have poured substantial funding into effective attack ads, they haven't uncovered fresh dirt on the incumbent. Messaging continues to rehash older controversies around Vasquez's past statements on law enforcement funding—arguments voters have already weighed and moved past.

On paper, the 2nd District looks alluring to Republicans. But it is no longer a rural-dominated seat; over half the electorate resides in the Democratic-heavy urban centers of Albuquerque and Doña Ana County. With Vasquez holding a firm grip on the urban vote, Cunningham is left waiting for an incumbent blunder significant enough to reshape the race.

House Speaker Mike Johnson was back in the district yesterday for a second visit this cycle to aid Cunningham--this time at a Las Cruces fund-raiser, according to Vasquez's campaign. The Speaker appeared in ABQ for Cunningham in late August. 

Bettors at Polymarket give Vasquez a 93 percent chance of victory and 4 percent for Cunningham. 

WAY BELOW RADAR 

There is a below-the-radar amendment to be decided by voters--Amendment #1--that addresses the esoteric pocket veto exercised by New Mexico's governors. The amendment—to the delight of many legislators—would do away with the pocket veto. Columbia University student Maya Henry looked into the details and came with this for NM In Depth:

For a bill to become law, it must pass both chambers of the state Legislature, a process that often takes months of negotiation and revision. Then it faces a new challenge: the governor. 

As the state constitution stands, a bill the Legislature has passed goes to the governor who can either sign it into law or veto it, explaining in a written message the reason for a veto. That written explanation gives lawmakers something to go on should they want to revise the bill and send it back to the governor for a second try.

But there’s an exception. If a bill passes in the last three days of a session the governor has 20 days to sign it into law, or to simply let it die without a signature, no reason required. That is called a “pocket veto” because the governor isn’t required to veto the bill outright.   

Pocket vetoes are unpopular with lawmakers who usher bills through the ups and downs of the legislative process, because they don’t provide information about changes necessary to garner the governor’s signature in years to come. 

In protest, a bi-partisan group of lawmakers, representatives Matthew McQueen, Rod Montoya and Reena Szczepanski and senators Joseph Cervantes and Pat Woods, sponsored House Joint Resolution 2 in January 2025. It passed the Legislature without a single no vote.

If voters approve the measure (Constitutional Amendment 1 on your ballot) in this year’s general election, the measure makes a simple switch. If the governor doesn’t sign or veto a bill during that 20-day window, it won’t die. Instead it will automatically become law. In addition, a governor would have to explain their rationale for all vetoes. Currently, the constitution only requires the governor to explain bills that are vetoed while the Legislature is in session. Vetoes typically come in the 20-day-period after a legislative session ends. 

The office of the governor has called the measure “ill advised,” saying it “infringes upon the Governor’s veto power.” In a response to the 2025 legislation, the governor’s office wrote:  “There may be (a) number of reasons for a governor to choose to pocket veto a bill rather than formally veto it. For example, the pocket veto allows the Governor to disapprove of legislation based on unforeseen issues without being compelled to publicly disclose sensitive information in a veto message.”

For McQueen, a Galisteo Democrat, getting rid of the pocket veto is a matter of transparency and good government. “It’s hard to pass legislation. It’s really hard to get through both chambers and to the governor’s desk,” he said in an interview. “If we have a bill that has been approved by both chambers and the governor decides not to sign it into law? The governor should tell us why.” 

The pocket veto is not unique to New Mexico: the President can employ a pocket veto by not acting on legislation within just 10 days of session adjournment, and 11 state governors enjoy some form of pocket veto privilege. The Office of the Governor cited these examples as reason to oppose such a constitutional change. 

The projected cost of such constitutional change would be indeterminate but minimal, a report prepared by the Legislative Finance Committee concluded. The costs could include the additional time and manpower the governor’s office needs to review bills passed by the Legislature and prepare veto messages as well as “legal challenges related to explanations given by the governor.

This is the Home of New Mexico politics.   

More voters in the populous ABQ metro are withholding judgment on the gubernatorial race than most other regions, appearing to prevent Democrat Deb Haaland from reaching the key 50 percent mark in her race against Republican Gregg Hull.

The second and final poll on the contest from the ABQ Journal—taken October 1–9 and released Sunday—has Haaland prevailing over Hull 49 to 42 percent, with 9 percent undecided.  

The first Journal survey released in late September had the race virtually the same—49–43 for Haaland. The margin of error in this survey is a tight 2.9 percent, reflecting the large sample of 1,125 likely voters. 

In the metro area 10 percent of voters are holding back final judgment. Hull is a popular former three-term mayor of Rio Rancho with deep roots here. Haaland leads him 49 to 40 percent in the Bernalillo-Sandoval-Valencia county region.

Statewide 18 percent of independents remain undecided with Haaland favored by 48 percent and Hull 34 percent. 

Haaland has begun targeting the indys in mailers, pledging that she "will work with anyone to lower costs and tackle our toughest challenges." Hull claims the poll shows that Haaland is "stuck." You could make the same argument about Hull who can't break past 43 percent in the polling. 

In the heavily Democratic north-central region, only 6 percent of voters are undecided. Haaland leads there 65 to 29 percent. In the Dem-dominated Las Cruces/Southwest region, undecided voters stand at 7 percent, and Haaland leads there 53 to 40 percent.

Haaland targets Indys

In 2022, when Gov. Lujan Grisham ran for re-election, she also faced a Republican, Mark Ronchetti, who was rooted in the metro area. She ended up carrying the region 52–46, an underperformance for a Democrat that limited her statewide victory margin to that same 52 to 46 on Election Night.

Haaland may or may not be headed on a similar trajectory, but because this final Journal poll comes earlier than any previous conducted in a gubernatorial cycle, there is still time for Haaland to surge more than MLG did, especially with the favorable national environment.

Hull's cash-starved campaign is barely on television, has no debates with Haaland to look forward to, and faces the aforementioned dreadful environment for Republicans this cycle. But he has that Sandoval County base that should help offset the landslide he is expected to suffer in Democratic Albuquerque.

STATE OF THE RACE 

Click to enlarge

Haaland has spent heavily since the last poll, but the peak of her spending has yet to come. Hull has some cash and is expected to be on the air more by October 17—when critical in-person early voting begins. However, Haaland's advantage is so lopsided that the fear among the GOP is that she could break free and head for a double-digit win as voters default to the candidate they have seen and heard the most.

Haaland, a national political figure who has raised over $17 million to Hull's $2 million, was expected to have an easier time of it at this stage. Longtime analyst and Santa Fe attorney Greg Payne says in light of her historic fund-raising he would characterize Haaland's polling performance as "weak." 

There are structural issues that could be impacting the race. 

Haaland is seeking to become the first Native American governor. That draws support from many Democrats, but hardens her opposition, which sees her as an unqualified token candidate.

Haaland is also seeking to overturn other history. Since 1986, the governorship has alternated between Democrats and Republicans. A Haaland win would mean a third consecutive term for the Democrats—a first in 40 years.

There is also her campaign strategy. Haaland has been careful not to throw any red meat to voters. She has run a cautious effort, marketing her personality and pushing out programs that represent gentle change, but nothing transformational. If it's not red meat, voters may need something more to sink their teeth into before moving toward her.

That brings up negative campaigning. The Democratic Governors Association has started an ad blitz tying Hull to Trump, and Hull is defenseless to respond. That could easily make up for Haaland's deficiencies. Also, Hull has pledged to conduct no negative campaigning, and no outside PAC has picked up the slack as the DGA has for Haaland.

There have now been three public polls in the governor's race. The average of those polls is 48 percent for Haaland and 42 percent for Hull. Polymarket bettors give Haaland a 92 percent chance of victory.

CANDIDATE REACTION

In a fund-raising pitch following release of the poll Haaland said:

I just got our newest poll, and the margins are still too close for comfort. They’re saying that my Republican opponent is “within striking distance"! Here’s why I’m concerned: MAGA donors have already poured hundreds of thousands of dollars into this race, and this poll will only encourage them to spend even more to close the gap. Republicans have made it clear: They will spend whatever it takes to buy this election, flip New Mexico red, and bring Donald Trump’s extreme agenda to our state.  

Hull said:

(Pollster) Brian Sanderoff, is already telling reporters that time is running out for our campaign. I’m not buying it, and you shouldn’t either. In the Journal’s last poll, we had a 17 point lead in the Las Cruces area. Now, somehow, that has completely flipped? So which poll was flawed?. . .

Over nine days of calls, only one came after the debate my opponent skipped. Most of the people in this poll answered before New Mexicans saw me standing next to an empty lectern, answering questions she wouldn’t. 

The poll also builds its sample from 2024 voters, a presidential year when turnout is always far higher than in a governor’s race. A lot of those voters won’t cast a ballot. . .We’ve seen this before. In the final week of our primary, the polls said it was close. We won by 10. A poll like this does one thing: it tells Republicans and independents that the race is decided so they’ll stay home. That’s exactly what Deb Haaland needs to happen. She has spent millions. . . and she still hasn’t moved the needle since August. She’s stuck. A large share of independents haven’t made up their minds. 

BALLYHOO

That ballyhooed nondebate featuring Hull in person and Haaland represented by an empty podium fell flat fast. 

Despite having the half hour to himself after the station went forward with his appearance when Haaland turned down their offer, Hull did nothing to compare and contrast his policies with those of Haaland. Only at the end did he even point out her absence from the stage.

Hull had an ideal opportunity to indict the policies of MLG, Haaland, and the entire Democratic progressive machine, but the audience that stuck around saw a low-key, competent fellow talking ably about his policies while failing to connect them to everyday New Mexicans. If that's all Mr. and Mrs. New Mexico were going to get had Haaland shown up for the debate, they didn't miss much. 

This is the Home of New Mexico politics.