AG Torrez

Democratic Attorney General Raul Torrez has an easy path to re-election. He faces no primary opponent and no general election threat from Republican injury attorney Sam Kane of Las Cruces.

That easy path isn't stopping Torrez, who served as BernCo District Attorney before becoming AG in 2023, from aggressively fund-raising. In the '26 cycle he has raised $945,000 and has cash on hand of $852,000, according to the early May state reports.

The AG's office exercises considerable enforcement power over the state's gaming tribes. 

Torrez received $7,400 from Ohkay Wingeh; $6,200 from Isleta Pueblo and $7,400 from the California Habematolel Pomo tribe. Bill Windham of Louisiana, president of the Downs at ABQ casino and racetrack, gave $5,000. The Melloy Brothers car dealers gave $10,000; the ABQ Parnall law firm donated $12,400--$6,200 for the primary and the same for the general.

Torrez been making headlines for suing Meta (the parent company of Facebook), accusing the tech giant of fraud and running an "unconscionable" business model that puts profits over safety. The state argues that Meta lied about the danger of its apps while knowingly designing addictive features and algorithms that lead to the sexual exploitation of children. 

Torrez secured an historic $375 million jury verdict against the company and is now asking a judge to force accurate age verification and turning off addictive design tools for minors which Meta claims are impossible to implement. The company has threatened to shut down its services in New Mexico. 

CRITICS QUESTIONS 

While winning mostly favorable press, critics question the lawsuit's timing as Torrez seeks re-election and launches a legal war that guarantees national headlines. They argue those same legal resources could be spent prosecuting more impactful crimes in the state--including an abundance of child abuse cases. 

(Most of the legal money spent on the Meta case is for out of state lawyers who work on contingency.)

Torrez did file a civil lawsuit in April against CYFD over confidentiality rules but skeptics argue that suing for paperwork and data is a toothless PR move that avoids the gritty task of building criminal cases against abusers.

The ambitious attorney general was mentioned as a possible '26 gubernatorial candidate but Deb Haaland's rise blocked any hopes. That leaves Torrez with his cash pile positioned for re-election and in a wait and see mode for what comes next. 

PERLS VS. LUJAN

Perls

Former state Rep. Bob Perls of Corrales (1993-'96) will run for the US Senate against presumed Dem nominee Ben Ray Lujan now that the Forward Party has earned minority party status and will be able to place candidates on the fall ballot. 

We asked Perls why he is running against Lujan who is seeking a second six year term and faces Matthew Dodson in the June 2 primary ballot but is expected to easily prevail: 

The incumbent has done nothing to buck the party, to be independent, to represent all New Mexicans. . .He votes the party line nearly 100 percent and does not coalition-build. . . Running for Senate gives me a platform to talk about why we need competitive elections.

First is the national effort to pass reform measures like open primaries, term limits and independent redistricting commissions. We must change the way we elect, district and finance candidates so that incentives are there for all candidates to coalition-build. 

Second, to uphold the Constitution and the rule of law, something President Trump has not done. . .We could say the same for certain Democrats who did not secure the border and did not insist on a competitive primary and open convention when President Biden did not seel re-election. 

Third, to create competitive elections to provide more choice. 80% of our races are not competitive. . .What we stand for is representing the 80% of New Mexicans who feel left out of both legacy parties. 

In 2015 Perls, 67, became head of NM Open Elections and was a key player in establishing the semi-open primaries that are taking effect for the firs time in the June primary. Perls is now state Chairman of the Forward Party of NM. The national Forward Party was co-founded by former presidential candidate and businessman Andrew Yang who came here and met with Perls to establish the state branch.

Perls needs 7,100 petition signatures to make the ballot so his challenge is not assured until he gets those signatures. The deadline to submit them is June 25. 

The Senate election could focus intensely on economic conditions, making it difficult for Perls to appeal to a wide swath of voters. n that statement, he faulted Dems for "failing to secure the border" which could give him entree to more conservative precincts.  

Healthcare might be another issue for the freshly minted candidate to push out. Perls is a healthcare management expert. He also has foreign policy chops having served as a US diplomat in posts such as Germany, Pakistan and Canada.

The Republicans failed to field a candidate against Lujan and now have Trump advocate Larry Marker running as a write-in. If he gets 2,351 write-in votes June 2, his name will appear on the November ballot along with Lujan's and now that of Perls.  

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Michael Perry (NYT)

He's got them worried. 

That would be Republican state land commission candidate Michael Perry, the retired game warden of Roswell who has been flagged as perhaps the only statewide GOP candidate who may have a shot at upsetting a Democratic rival in November. 

The worry is spreading fast among the Dems who are already alarmed over former NM GOP Congressman Steve Pearce taking over as Trump's director of the Bureau of Land Management. They fret that Perry would team up with Pearce and open the state's public lands to more industry development The NYT pulls the alarm bell:

Perry. . .pitches himself “not as a Republican or Democrat,” but a “New Mexico state land commissioner” obsessed with “collaboration, accountability and responsible land management.”His Democratic rivals see something entirely different: an existential threat. That’s because President Trump has nominated another New Mexico Republican, Steve Pearce, to lead the U.S. Bureau of Land Management, sometimes referred to as the nation’s largest landlord. And with two New Mexico Republicans potentially at the helm of both agencies, dramatic changes could come to a state known as the Land of Enchantment for its breathtaking landscapes and cultural riches.

While Perry has a free ride in the GOP primary, in the Dem primary there is an intense three-way battle for the land commissioner nomination. The candidates are Juan Sanchez, a former political aide to Sen. Heinrich who hails from a ranching family; Santa Fe area state Rep. Matthew McQueen, an ardent environmentalist, and rancher Jonas Moya.

Moya has little money but could draw Hispanic votes that could hurt polling front-runner Sanchez whose new TV ad is energetic. 

Conservation Voters NM PAC (CVNM) is running TV for McQueen emphasizing his commitment to renewable energy, 

This could be a close race and Heinrich, who went all-in for a Dem land commission candidate in 2018 who lost, has a lot of prestige on the line.  

Fundraising has been so-so. Sanchez has raised $201,000 and reported $149,000 in cash in the early May report. However, a dark money Virginia based PAC has just entered the race on behalf of Sanchez with big money and mailers. (Hello, Sen. Heinrich?)

McQueen reports raising $258,000 and cash on hand of $237,000. Moya reported less than $1,000 in cash. 

On policy, Sanchez is more centrist thus the firmer progressive support for McQueen. 

The battleground? As usual it's Big BernCo. McQueen should landslide Santa Fe and vicinity and Sanchez should sweep Hispanic wards around the state.

NOVEMBER OUTLOOK 

Joe Monahan

The NYT painting Perry as a threat to the Dems could help him generate conservative excitement and donations for his uphill effort.   

Perry reports $150,000 in donations for the cycle and $130,000 cash on hand. Pros say he will need to triple that amount for the November election and also get the help of a multi-million dollar big oil PAC which would not be unusual. 

Many observers say New Mexico's top races this year--Governor, Senator, etc.-- are simply not in play for the GOP and if the beleaguered party is going to revive, it needs a win. They see that possibility with Perry and argue for centering party efforts on his candidacy.

Perry has to be rooting for McQueen to win the Dem nod, the Anglo liberal who may be most vulnerable to attack and who would not have the ethnic voting safety net of Sanchez. 

As for the three alarm fire being signaled over Perry possibly winning, Republicans Aubrey Dunn, Jr. and Pat Lyons both served as land commissioner in recent years and didn't burn the place down.  

Land Commission '26--another major race to watch Election Night, June 2. We'll do our watching and reporting from our perch at public radio KANW 89.1 FM. Be sure to join us. 

HAALAND’S WORTH

We may have left the impression that Deb Haaland is in the poor house when writing Monday about the book deal she struck. At least a number of readers thought so. 

We really don’t know her net worth since we don’t have new financial disclosures. Her net worth climbed dramatically to the one to $2 million level, according to the disclosures during her marriage, but she was divorced in 2025 and since then information about her personal finances has not been released. 

Since leaving Interior Haaland says she has engaged in public speaking and writing. Former Cabinet members frequently earn income through speaking engagements, book deals, or consulting work during transition periods.

Haaland is not allowed to use her campaign funds as a salary but most daily expenses are covered by the campaign while she is campaigning. A reader adds:

 

Deb Haaland earned a base salary set at Level I of the Executive Schedule, which ranged from $221,400 annually early in her term to $246,400 in 2024, prior to the end of her tenure in January 2025. Before her appointment as a Cabinet secretary, Haaland earned an annual salary of $174,000 as a U.S. Representative. Her detailed financial compensation and personal disclosure reports are available through the U.S. Office of Government Ethics or by searching her candidate records on OpenSecrets.

 

Here is Haaland's final federal Public Financial Disclosure Report covering her final year as Sec. of Interior in 2024. Here is her 2022 filing showing a married and quite well-off Haaland with a variety of investment accounts. 

What got all of this going was when Forbes magazine reported in 2021 that Haaland had a net worth of zero in large part because of student loan debt. Because New Mexico's financial disclosure requirements are so vague we may be unable to determine her assets in the future even if she is elected Governor--unless she voluntarily discloses them.  

 ATTACK TIME

 It's not a circular firing squad because Gregg Hull has pledged not to attack his rivals but Doug Turner and Duke Rodriguez are going full throttle as they unload on Hull and each other with just two weeks until Election Day.

The Rodriguez attack on Turner centers on contracts Turner’s PR agency, Agenda, has received under the Democratic Biden and Lujan Grisham administrations. 

The Protect Our NM PAC supporting Turner comes with a hit on Hull, calling him out for not being a true conservative, saying he refused to endorse Trump and appointed a liberal City Councilor when he was Mayor of Rio Rancho. 

The pro-Turner PAC also came after Rodriguez, citing his lengthy voting record in Arizona and said "he moved here to run for Governor."

The three way GOP race has muddled along, overshadowed by the Dem contest which is much better financed and therefore more visible--not to mention that this is a Dem state. Even the independents, allowed for the first time to cast ballots in state primaries, are deciding to vote in the Dem primary at a rate of 65 percent in the early voting. 

As for where the GOP race stands and who might be the one left standing Election Night, we turn to a Senior Alligator of the Republican variety for a close-up look:

Doug Turner may have entered the race too late and didn’t hit the accelerator all the way when he did. He could still come on in the final days if he has higher-octane fuel.

Duke got in at a decent time but wasted money on things like billboards (saw one in the Democratic ABQ Barelas neighborhood and has low quality TV ads.  What's worse is that it doesn’t seem like he has many friends in the party. 

Hull has been campaigning for over a year. He made friends across the state even if he didn’t inspire the traditional donor class of oil and gas types. He is a nonoffensive Republican who hits the right notes with the evangelical base and is the only candidate to have an actual political base in Sandoval County where he served three terms as Rio Rancho mayor. The county is an important place for Republicans these days.  

Hull was the leader in the early polling. For what it's worth he is currently getting 73 percent of the betting money on Polymarket; Rodriguez gets 21 percent and Turner 6 percent.

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Deb Haaland has made history by already raising a staggering $11 million for her gubernatorial bid. The contrast of that achievement with her lack of personal wealth is startling but may finally be changing.  

Haaland has authored a memoir tiled A Voice Like Mine that will be released following the June 2 primary that stands to stabilize her bank account. Industry sources say that authors such as Haaland can receive an advance on sales of $150,000 to $250,000.

Haaland nor her campaign or publisher has released the amount of her advance publicly. That's not unusual but such information does often leak. Her campaign referred inquires to her publisher.

Her presumed upfront payment is not exorbitant but for Haaland, who famously claimed a net worth of zero when making her financial disclosure to become Secretary of the Interior, it could be a godsend.

Her 2021 marriage vaulted her up the income ladder with her household income zooming from zero to the $1 to $2 million level. But a divorce in 2025 in which her husband kept the martial home sent her back to square one. 

Haaland hasn't necessarily mishandled her personal finances. She has not had a high-paying career. As she writes in her memoirs, a good portion of her adult life was mired in poverty and alcoholism in addition to being a single mother who relied on food stamps. (Her daughter Soma, 31, today lives in New York.)

Haaland eventually earned a law degree, served as chair of the NM Dem party, was the '14 Dem lieutenant governor nominee, was elected to the ABQ congressional seat and then chosen by President Biden as Sec. of Interior. 

Campaign TV ads label her primary rival Sam Bregman a "millionaire" who doesn't care about the common folk but Haaland's book deal, while not giving her millionaire status, could put her in a tax bracket closer to Bregman's neighborhood. 

A BOOKISH CAMPAIGN  

The former cabinet secretary's up by the bootstraps story is obviously worthy of a book. That it dovetails with her gubernatorial campaign--assuming she wins the June 2 primary against rival Sam Bregman--will be a golden opportunity to promote that candidacy. 

Ethics rules guide her conduct going forward. Her campaign cannot pay for her book tour or spend any money to promote the book. The publisher Holt and Co. must foot the bill. When she is making media appearances she can't urge viewers to donate to her race for governor.  

The hardcover of Haaland's book will sell for $28.99 and the Kindle version $14.99. An audio version that Haaland will narrate may prove most popular and will sell for $23.99.

If sales are solid and her share of royalties surpasses the advance she received, she will realize more income from the memoir.  

If Haaland wins election she will receive the governor's salary that is scheduled to be raised to $169,174 on Jan. 1, 2027.

NATIONAL AMBITIONS? 

Does the book indicate Haaland is already looking at national political office as is often the case with politicians? That's unlikely. 

Such a candidacy would mean rigorous media interrogation on such broadcasts as Face the Nation and Meet the Press. Haaland has refused offers to debate Bregman for fear of making a grave error. Also, her unsteady congressional testimony when Sec. of Interior is now being used against her and would not stand up to a national test. 

Her future is here and if it means being Governor for four or eight years that's not bad, if you consider what could have happened to her life. 

Do look for Haaland to promote her book on various cable programs such as MSNBC and CNN that will feed into the positive image of her campaign. The free publicity will also be a financial windfall for the campaign, giving her free time that her Republican opponent will not be able to compete against. 

The most valuable aspect of her book deal may be that Haaland, 66, finally puts her personal finances on a stable course for an eventual retirement and not be dealing with them while juggling the demands of the governorship. 

 HEATED SOS BATTLE  

There's no love lost in the bitter and often nasty race for the Democratic nomination for Secretary of State featuring Santa Fe County Clerk Katharine Clark and Dona Ana Clerk Amanda Lopez Askin.

Both sides are now up with soft TV ads, unlike the vicious combat taking place on the socials. (Clark ad here. Lopez Askin ad here.)  

Clark was forced into tweaking her ad by the state Dem Party who complained she was making it seem as though the party was endorsing her candidacy when she put up on the screen "chosen by the Democratic Party." She dropped the phrase "chosen by" and the Dem party logo something they don't do in contested primary elections.  

Clark did win the party's state preprimary and said that win was what the ad intended to convey. Insiders say she resisted a call from the party to pull the ad down in its entirety. The Democratic party said that is not the case and only asked the campaign to change certain aspects which the Clark campaign did. 

Lopez Askin has out raised Clark but Clark has a larger voting base in the North than Lopez Askin has in the South. Clark also appears to have an edge in the ABQ media market. 

But progressives like Sen. Katy Duhigg are relentless in their attacks on Clark for reasons that are not always clear. But Clark's independence from segments of her party is clear. Lame duck MLG has endorsed Lopez Askin but Clark has that preprimary support from Dems across the state. 

Outgoing SOS Maggie Toulouse Oliver, now campaigning for the Dem nomination for lieutenant governor has also endorsed Lopez Askin who says in her TV spot that she wants to emulate MTO in the office. 

A supporter of Clark's responds:

The current Secretary of State was a disaster when it came to transparency. Look at the mess that is the campaign finance web site. She had ten years to get it right and could not or did not want to. That has deprived us of transparency over the huge money that has since flowed into politics from PAC's and also proper oversight of candidate fund-raising and spending. Toulouse Oliver constantly blamed the legislature for not providing enough funding, refusing to take responsibility for the fiasco. Clark could be the solution. 

Toulouse Oliver

Does that view signal Clark could have a more aggressive posture than Lopez Askin to supervising dark money, PAC spending and candidate finance reporting? It seems so. Much of that money now comes from progressive-backed national groups and billionaires. Perhaps that explains some of the fierce push back Clark is receiving but whose reasoning can seem ambiguous. 

Both of these women are smart and tenacious but are being shaken by the stress and unexpected emotionalism of this battle. It is the first exposure of both to the bright lights of statewide La Politica.  Which candidate best keeps their composure and plows ahead without mistakes may be the one who takes the prize. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.

Independent voters are making a bit of history this election. We say a "bit" because even though this is the first time they are allowed to vote in the major party primaries, their expected impact and the attention being paid to them by the campaigns is negligible. 

That's because 10 percent or less of the indys, also known as Decline to State voters, are expected to cast a ballot in the June 2 primary. Early and absentee voting is on that 10 percent path, according to stats from the SOS.

We did find one campaign where the independent vote is being openly pursued---House District 14 in ABQ's downtown and South Valley.

That's where Rep. Miguel Garcia, 75, who took office in 1997 and is the longest-serving member of the House, is facing a credible primary challenge from injury attorney Joseph Romero who is emphasizing bread and butter issues and his military service.

The race must be close. Garcia, as seen in today's post, is specifically targeting independents in a paid mailer, saying he deserves their support because he sponsored the measure that allowed them to vote in primaries. 

Romero, 46, has not attacked Garcia's record (yet) nor made Garcia's lengthy tenure an issue. 

Garcia, a retired APS Spanish language arts teacher, is known for his focus on land grants, veterans' affairs, and environmental conservation. 

Romero is also working for independent votes as seen in this mailer targeting them.

Unlike Garcia he does not mention independents by name. But his emphasis on his military service in the heavily Hispanic district indicates he perceives many as moderates.

Romero furthers that impression by veering to the center on the question of gun control. He says:

I support laws targeting criminal use of firearms, keeping guns out of kids' hands through safe storage, and holding manufacturers and dealers accountable when they sell to criminals. I understand the concern behind calls for broader bans, but the focus should be on the people actually causing harm.  

Garcia is more liberal:

I support a ban on military style assault firearms like the AK-47 and the AR-15. These firearms were made for the battlefield to take out a human life and not for target practicing or deer and elk hunting. We should also make illegal the manufacturing of “ghost” firearms. 

Garcia has never been a big fund-raiser and is being outraised and outspent by Romero. Garcia has raised $17,000 and had cash on hand of $15,000 at last report. 

Romero has raised a more robust $53,000 (with the help of donations from fellow ABQ trial attorneys Lisa Curtis and David Duhigg) and has cash of $43,000 for the final stretch.

It would not take much of a bump in the independent vote to make a difference. As few as 2,500 of the 9,393 registered Democrats in the district are expected to vote. There are 5,130 independents so in a close race they could be key. The problem for both candidates is inspiring them to vote. 

By the way, the District is only 17 percent Republican with 3,045 registered. Republican Ruben Zubio is running in the GOP primary as a write-in candidate. 

Garcia vs. Romero is one of the races we'll keep a close eye on when we take to the airwaves of KANW 89.1 FM June 2 for our traditional wall-to-wall Election Night coverage.  

WHERE INDEPENDENTS RULE

Rep. Silva

Do any of the 70 House districts have a majority of independents? Yes, there is one but only by a hair.

In District 53 in Dona Ana and Otero counties there are 6,684 registered independents and 6,676 Democrats for a tiny indy majority of 8 voters, reports the SOS. That's 36 percent for each with Republicans getting the remainder.

The district is represented by progressive Democrat Rep. Sarah Silva who is seeking re-election. She is unopposed in the primary and will face Republican Ben Luna in the general election. 

It is that large swath of independents that make this one of the most competitive districts in the state.

Silva won her 2024 election by just 50.8% to 49.2%. She has a strong incentive to remain responsive to the independents who helped put her in office and who are decidedly middle of the road in this southern region. 

How has Silva approached her majority independent district?

She serves on the House Appropriations and Taxation committees which focus on the state budget and infrastructure rather than divisive culture war issues.

She has framed the abortion rights question not as a social justice matter but one of personal freedom and privacy, appealing to indys who are not fond of big government,

On the controversial Project Jupiter data center proposed for Dona Ana county and that is close to Silva's district, she has taken a supportive but skeptical position. She is not trying to kill the project as some progressive enviros are demanding but instead calls for aggressively protecting the local water and air. 

Some might call Silva a pragmatic progressive. Will her script go statewide as the ranks of independent voters swell? It could, but only if indy turnout approaches the rate of the two major parties. That's when the centrism of the independents would have impact--at least that's the case in the sole House district where the leading party is not a party.

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Hull, Turner & Rodriguez

Sometimes it seems no one really wants the Republican gubernatorial nomination. The campaign has been meek, underfunded and led by political unknowns laboring under the shadow of likely Democratic nominee Deb Haaland whose fund-raising machine could quickly consign the Republican nominee to the showers.

The latest money reports for the June 2 primary again reveal the anemic state of the race. 

Former Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull has proved to be what one insider calls "borderline inept" at raising money despite taking the front-runner role in two public polls. 

Hull raised only $71,000 in the April 7 to May 4 period and goes into the final critical days with a mere $227,000 in cash on hand. The Journal poll showing him with a lead of 30-21 over Doug Turner was released May 3, a day before the reporting period closed. Among his expenditures Hull reported paying Peakland Strategies of Lynchburg, VA, $47,000 for campaign consulting. 

A Senior Alligator (as we call our longtime reliable sources) says: 

Hull desperately needs more cash but his campaign appears helpless or oblivious. The candidate himself offered the excuse that donations will come to whoever wins the nomination, but the problem is the money will have a major role in determining who will win that nomination. He knows that, but appears unable to fix it, sending a chilling message on how he might govern. 

ABQ businessman Doug Turner is the most likely recipient of Hull's disappointing performance. He reported raising $200,000 in the period and had $281,000 cash on hand. That does not appear to include whatever he brought in from a May 6 Mar a Lago fund-raiser. Also, big oil has a PAC out there that could help Turner overtake Hull even more. Turner's recent contributions read like a who's who of the state oil biz. 

Turner sent back a lot of money he collected to the PR agency he founded, reporting over $200,000 in payments to Agenda for digital advertising.  

A Senior Alligator offers this: 

Turner faces his own problem with messaging. It is unclear. He cut a digital ad about the Epstein ranch investigation that seemed out of context. But the messaging overall is not bad. It is passable and if his money talks louder than Hull's, it is enough to get him in the winner's circle.  

Duke Rodriguez's residency controversy and others saw him hit the skids in the polling. Only 9 percent supported him in the Journal survey. He reported that he has now donated $1.5 million of personal money to his campaign. He reported $513,000 in cash on hand for the final stretch. So far he has spent $994,000. He spent $351,000 on TV airtime and production in the recent period and $168,000 on digital ads.  

At the start of the campaign the marijuana tycoon said he could donate up to $2 million of personal funds. That's a fair amount but so much damage has been done that the dynamics of the entire campaign may have to change to put him near victory.

It is the lack of dynamism that is the signature of the '26 GOP race. But it should not be too surprising. The party has been decimated by numerous defeats in recent years and is so torn asunder from internal battles that another November bloodbath looks more likely than improbable. That leaves Hull, Turner and Rodriguez to fight over the scraps in a party that has been deserted by big names and big money.

 THE SPEAKER FUND

Speaker Martinez

Gerrymandering has insured that the 70 member state House will very likely keep its majority of 45 Dems and 25 Republicans this cycle. But The Speaker Fund, led by Dem Speaker Javier Martinez, is ready for any unexpected battles. The Fund reports $233,000 in cash on hand and raising $111,000 this period. 

The  Western States Regional Council of Carpenters Legislative Improvement PAC gave $39,500. Carpenters and other trade unions here and elsewhere have been pushing for the large and controversial Project Jupiter proposed for Santa Teresa. It could employ up to 4,000 construction workers. The developers include mega software company Oracle. 

Speaker Martinez has a split caucus on his hands over the project. Some progressives are opposed because of environmental concerns,

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What a little money in the bank will do. Just ask Deb Haaland. 

In the latest campaign finance report covering April 7 through May 4 Haaland reported raising $869,000 and bringing her total for the campaign to just shy of $12 million. That's only about $1.5 million less than MLG spent on both her primary and general election efforts in 2022. 

That we're dealing with something historic in state politics is an understatement.  

With the cash raised from across the nation the front-running Democratic gubernatorial candidate is exercising total domination of the airwaves and digits.  

The possibility that Haaland will become the first female Native American elected as a governor is driving the fund-raising frenzy. Her donation report is spread over nearly 2,000 pages filed with the SOS. Her first report covering a longer period overwhelmed the software and forced a delayed release.

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Hull, Turner and Rodriguez

Gregg Hull is claiming that he now has the momentum in the chase for the GOP gubernatorial nomination and there are plenty of reasons to believe him.

Hull scored an easy win (57 percent) at the March GOP preprimary convention, has led his two opponents convincingly in two independent polls and over the weekend added an important straw poll win. 

The April 18-19 Emerson College survey had Hull at 21 percent, Duke Rodriguez at 10 and Doug Turner at 9. Sixty percent said they were undecided. 

The ABQ Journal poll conducted April 24-May 1 affirmed Hull's lead, giving the former three term Rio Rancho mayor 30 percent to Turner's 21 and Rodriguez's 9. Forty-percent said they were undecided.

Then over the weekend a straw poll was conducted among members of the politically conservative Legacy Church in ABQ at an event that featured questioning of the three hopefuls. Hull announced on the socials that he had walked away with 58 percent of the congregants backing him, Turner getting 25 percent and Rodriguez at 15. He said:

We had strong support in the straw poll at the end of the night—momentum is building.

Rev. Smotherman

The evangelical church is one of the largest and most successful in the state. It was built from scratch by the Reverend Steve Smotherman who is as devout in his conservatism as he is in his spiritual beliefs and is a proven force to be reckoned with in Republican politics. 

In July of 2022 we reported how he dealt a critical blow to the general election hopes of GOP Guv nominee Mark Ronchetti over the candidate's stance on abortion.

That Hull, who has not at all emphasized socially conservative issues nor embraced Donald Trump, performed so well in the Legacy poll is yet another shot across the bow of his rivals. 

Hull's bio says he was active in church youth ministries for 20 years. He would be the first governor since Democrat Bruce King in the 1990's without a college degree. Before politics Hull was a businessman/entrepreneur.

Hull, 59, has also picked up the endorsement of the Santa Fe New Mexican in the liberal north where there are fewer Republicans but it was another boost in helping persuade the many undecided voters to go his way. 

The Oklahoma native who came to the state 35 years ago is indeed on a roll except when it comes to crucial fund-raising. It has been anemic with Republican enthusiasm for the election in the cellar and donations hard to come by. Also holding up Hull is that massive 40 percent of undecided Republicans in the ABQ Journal survey.

ABEYTA ANALYSIS 

Nevertheless longtime Democratic analyst and lobbyist Sisto Abeyta says while roadblocks remain Hull is poised for a win:

As a former three term Mayor of Rio Rancho he has worked across the state with other public officials for years. He is the best known personally of the three candidates which is why his lack of money is not taking him out. His solid voter base in Rio Rancho combined with his history in GOP circles is making all the difference.  

Hull's website lists a variety of GOP endorsements from current and former city officials from around New Mexico.

Abeyta says Turner has turned in decent numbers but "may have started too late" and that the Rodriguez situation speaks for itself--his poor polling and a string of controversies has stopped him in his tracks, despite deploying personal money to outraise and outspend Turner and Hull. 

Abeyta believes the high number of undecided voters in the Journal survey not only reveals how widely unknown the contenders are but points to a low turnout for the June 2 election: 

A low turnout would work to Hull's benefit because that Rio Rancho base is ready to be tapped. They are not going away. 

Veteran Republican analyst and campaign expert Jamie Estrada says it appears Hull "is a few good TV spots from going over the top."

While Turner had a major fund-raiser at Trump's Mar a Lago estate last week (Trump was not in attendance) and is largely bankrolled by the oil and gas industry, Hull has not embraced either Trump or big oil. He is still expected to have enough cash to have media impact but cash flow remains a danger if Turner can apply pressure. 

If Hull is right about having seized the momentum Turner's polling will show it and negative campaigning in the low key primary could be the next chapter before a victor emerges Election Night. 

In a debate last week the candidates continued to play soft shoe with each other, rarely contrasting their positions. With Hull claiming he now has a head of steam, that approach could quickly go by the wayside.  

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.