Bregman and Haaland

For the first time, decline to state voters in New Mexico will have the chance to vote in the Democratic or Republican primaries June 2 but they will likely have little impact on the outcome of the gubernatorial or other contests.

The chief reason is the very low number of independents expected to take advantage of the opportunity to vote. Longtime New Mexico pollster Brian Sanderoff estimates only about 10 percent of the 364,000 voters registered as "decline to state" will cast ballots in the primary election. He admits that could be on the high side. 

Sanderoff bases his prediction on innumerable polls he has conducted here and on the experience of other other states that have allowed independents to get in on the primary action. For the June election here, his forecast would mean the addition of about 36,400 independent voters. Again, that could be on the high side. 

So what would the impact of that hypothetical turnout mean for Deb Haaland and Sam Bregman who are vying for the Dem Guv nomination and the three GOP Guv candidates expected to be the choices for Republicans?

Assume 60 percent of those 36,400 independents opt to vote Democratic--not unusual considering the party's dominance here and the overall blue lean of the state. That would be 21,840 new Democratic voters. Further assume that moderate Dem Bregman beats Haaland handily with them--55 percent to  45 percent. That would be a pick up of 2,184 votes for Bregman,

Turnout in the open 2018 Dem governor primary was about 176,000 and a similar or even larger number can be expected this year. A big Bregman independent win (that 2,184) would amount to about 1.25 percent of the total votes cast. Even an unlikely 65 percent independent win by the BernCo DA would make no appreciable difference---unless the race was exceptionally tight. 

In 2018 MLG beat two primary opponents with 66 percent or 59,000 votes. Haaland, according to public polling, is ahead of Bregman by at least 10 percent and probably more. That would put her on track for at least a 17,600 vote win with a 176,000 turnout, if Bregman got to 45 percent. 

If Bregman could somehow break the mold and stimulate a larger than expected turnout among independents, he could improve his chances. But that's a longshot. His best chance as well as Haaland's is to diligently cater to Democratic base voters who will continue to be the nominating wing of the state's largest party regardless of the entry of independents.

In the GOP primary, barring a squeaker of a race, we can rinse and repeat basically the same analysis in the chase for their gubernatorial nomination. 

About 118,000 voters showed up for the open GOP 2022 primary. Under the turnout forecast we are using, about 14,560 indys would join them this year. In a three way race where a dominant candidate received 40 percent to 60 percent for the two challengers, the winner would pick up 1,456 votes--not inconsequential but not a game-changer. 

TAX REJECTED 

Late Monday the ABQ City Council rejected a proposal to raise the gross receipts tax by nearly half a percent, an issue we blogged about Monday. From the Council: 

The Council voted down the Community Enhancement Municipal Gross Receipts Tax Monday night. The ordinance, sponsored by Councilors Baca and Bassan, would have imposed a 0.4875% excise tax on gross receipts for businesses operating in Albuquerque, with revenues dedicated to municipal capital projects and general operational purposes.  

Councilors Brook Bassan and Joaquín Baca co-sponsored the tax hike but voted no vote after saying amendments "killed the spirit" of the bill.  It failed on a 8-1 vote with only Councilor Feibelkorn voting in favor. 

ZORRO RANCH (CONT,)

Zorro Ranch

The investigation into the Epstein NM ranch gets an in-depth look from NBC:

This the Home of New Mexico Politics. 

ABQ GOP City Councilor Dan Lewis tells us the move to increase the city's gross receipts tax by nearly half a percent will not win approval, if it comes to a vote at tonight's Council meeting. Still, the mere idea of raising taxes in a city with no looming fiscal crisis has both business interests and progressives on high alert and united in opposition. 

The gross receipts tax would soar to over 8 percent if the tax is approved, settling at 8.113 percent. The tax is already known as a business killer as it adds that amount to most retail purchases--like restaurants--as well as bills sent out by professionals such as architects, attorneys and CPA's. 

The tax is especially tough on lower income households who spend most of their money on every day goods and live paycheck to paycheck. Former US attorney and '25 progressive mayoral candidate Alex Uballez explains:

A regressive tax means that it disproportionately impacts low-and-moderate-income ABQ residents through higher prices on goods and services. While it can be used to generate local revenue (good thing!), these kinds of increases can place a higher relative burden on lower-income households.  

The oddest part of the plan is that it comes from a Republican--NE Heights City Councilor Brook Bassan--who barely survived her 2023 re-election bid when she fudged her education credentials. Is this her off-key swan song? 

The hike is co-sponsored by Dem Councilor Joaquin Baca who is pushing an unpopular downtown performing arts center. 

BROOK'S OBSESSION 

Bassan has been obsessed with completing the the aquatic center at North Domingo Baca Park that has become a money pit. It appears part of the tax increase would go to finish the boondoggle that Bassan has been unable to move to completion. 

Councilor Bassan

By mid-2023 the city had raised roughly $$40$ million for the center. Inflation pushed the project cost from around $$32$ million to about $$50$ million. One 2026 estimate now has the projected cost near $$70$ million. Is that what we'll see with other projects the Councilor has in mind for her tax increase? 

The odd couple of Bassan and Baca say that the $113 million the tax would generate annually would be devoted to a variety of capital outlay projects and maintenance of parks and the like. 

The Councilors say the tax could even lead to free admission to golf courses, the BioPark and museums. However, skeptics point out that only a small fraction of the populace uses those facilities, yet everyone would be forced to shoulder the new tax to run them.

INEFFECTIVE LEADERSHIP?

Councilor Baca

The Councilors point out that Albuquerque is behind on capital projects, but opponents say forcing a tax hike is a sign of ineffective leadership. Instead of looking to Santa Fe—which is currently awash in billions of dollars in surplus—the Council and Mayor have failed to secure the necessary funding or increase the city’s bonding capacity. Now, they want to use half of this new tax increase to back $360 million in bonds for projects that remain largely unnamed.

Worse yet, this proposal arrives amidst global instability. With the Middle East crisis increasing the probability of a recession, gas prices climbing, and inflation stinging, is this the time to add a tax burden? Albuquerque has endured a stagnant economy for years; raising the GRT to an extreme level may well add to the city's woes rather than alleviate them.

The Council meeting today starts at 5 p.m. and will be aired on YouTube. 

ON THE AIR 

It seems everyone in La Politica ends up on the Richard Eeds Santa Fe talk show on KTRC--including yours truly. 

In our latest appearance we bantered with the longtime host about the key issues currently on the table--the Guv's race, oil prices, Santa Fe's never-ending obelisk argument and more. Listen here. 

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Candidates lined up to file for all 70 state House seats this week amid continued wreckage for Republicans in special elections around the nation, 

Those national headwinds. say our analysts, rule out any serious chance this year of Republicans altering the Democrats overwhelming House majority of 44-26. Rather, they believe the question is whether the house Democratic caucus, now the center of power at the Roundhouse, will tilt even more progressive after the election or be dotted with a few additional conservative Demcorats who could alter the tone--if only slightly.

That is a meager diet for political junkies for the June 2 primary but as we've been reporting for several years, New Mecico has gradually become a one party state, reducing the number of competitive contest in both the primary and general elections.

In any event, among the key primary rivalries to watch for any tonal shift include NE ABQ District 27 where lawyer Abby Foster is challenging moderate Dem Rep. Marian Matthews; District 40 in Mora County and vicinity where progressive pediatrician Nancy Wright is competing against Dem Rep. Joseph Sanchez; District 41 centered in Rio Arriba County where former longtime moderate Dem Rep. Debbie Rodella is staging a comeback effort and faces progressive Yolanda Jaramillo in the race to replace retiring progressive Rep. Susan Herrera and District 70, based in San Miguel County that sees former Rep. Ambrose Castellano, another conservative Dem, trying to take back the seat he lost in the '24 primary to Rep. Anita Gonzales.

There are a number of others that are on the radar that we'll cover int he weeks ahead. Complete priamry candidate list for all offices is here. 

 POST PREPRIMARY SPIN

The camp of GOP gubernatorial hopeful Duke Rodriguez is out with their post preprimary convention spin, saying of Rodriguez's poor third place showing at the Ruidoso meeting: 

The convention is one room. The primary is the entire state.

They also point to the eligibility of independents now able to vote in state primaries starting with the June primary. They believe Rodriguez as the outsider candidates has particular appeal to them. And the campaign also leans into his Hispanic heritage, saying: 

He is the only Hispanic gubernatorial candidate in the field, Republican or Democrat, and the last three governors elected in New Mexico have been Hispanic.“This is not identity politics. This is the electorate speaking,” Rodriguez said. “New Mexico tends to elect leaders who reflect the culture, the communities, and the families of this state.”   

SANCHEZ FOR TURNER 

Sanchez

Second place preprimary finisher Doug Turner has rolled out an endorsement from former Lt. Gov. John Sanchez who was the 2022 GOP Guv nominee. 

Doug is an inspiring and successful entrepreneur who built a global company right here in New Mexico. Doug brings much needed energy and momentum to this race.

Sanchez served with Gov. Martinez from 2011-19. Martinez has not endorsed a candidate in the primary. Sanchez took a pass on running afor governor this cycle. Former GOP Gov. Gary Johnson (1995-2002) has endorsed Rodriguez who was a cabinet secretary under Johnson.     

Gregg Hull is trying to build post convention momentum with his first place showing by dubbing himself the "frontrunner" in the race while seeking camapign donations.  

NOT A POWER BROKER 

Reader Jeffrey Paul, a Dem delegate to the preprimary convention, pushes back against Sam Bregman who explained his loss to Deb Haaland as the result of "power brokers" controlling the convention:

I certainly don't consider myself a party power broker. Haaland's big win wasn't about a crown, it was about a choice. A choice that 74% of the delegates (teachers, retirees, police officers, salesmen, authors, and healthcare workers) made for the candidate that they felt would bring experience, dedication, wisdom, and commitment to the Governor's office. Bregman's response was beneath him; or was it?

This the Home of New Mexico Politics. 

A real debate or a three ring circus? 

The one and only "debate" that Dem gubernatorial candidate Deb Haaland has agreed to participate in with opponent Sam Bregman is in fact not a debate but one of the oddest set-ups for a candidate face-off ever seen in these enchanted parts.

The event, scheduled for May 2 in ABQ, features three rounds that have hardly any similarity to what most voters expect from a debate--an intense question and answer session where the contenders fire off responses and rebut the answers of their opponents with journalists serving as the arbiters.

In this "debate" sponsored by the progressive group Dukes Up, that traditional and time-tested playbook is thrown out the window in favor of a forum featuring three separate rounds which could easily turn into a three ring circus. 

They are actually calling the event "Debate Games" so the circus analogy may not be far off:   

Styled as the “Governor Debate Games,” the event will feature elements of debate and policy-focused competition, divided into three rounds. 

Round One: Student Team Competition. The first round will pair each candidate with one of three small groups of high school students. Leading up to the event, the candidates will be encouraged to communicate their policy positions to their team of students. At the event, the candidate’s student team will be asked a series of multiple choice questions about their candidate’s policy positions. The team that correctly picks their candidate’s answer will score a point. The winning team will bring a trophy back to their school. 

Our take: Are we having a debate to inform voters who can actually vote or pick a high school class president? And where are Haaland and Bregman in this bizarre celebration of teen spirit? On the playground? 

Bregman and Haaland

Round Two: Questions from Participating Organizations. Round Two will be more like a traditional candidate forum, with open questions asked to each candidate, who provide a time-limited response. The questions will be authored by such groups as. . .the ACLU of NM, the New Mexico Immigrant Law Center, and the NM Center for Biological Diversity, with many more invitations to be made. There will be a “game” component to this round as well. Judges in the live audience will decide whether each candidate answered (rather than evaded) each question. Score will be kept. 

Our take: What a round! This is sure to add spark by focusing on rigid ideological queries favored by interest groups. This sounds more like a litmus test than an authentic attempt to solicit the views of the candidates. What happened to old fashioned journalism? And who are the judges? Members in good standing of a Kangaroo Court? 

Round Three: Candidate Questions. Each candidate will ask their opponent one question of their own choosing. 

Our take: Be still my heart! We actually get a debate--of one single question. 

The only improvement to be made to this peculiar spectacle is to have the cheerleaders from the winning high school in round one entertain at half-time. Better yet, send in the clowns. 

THE BOTTOM LINES 

In a first draft Tuesday we had the Dem preprimary convention taking place at Ruidoso. It was held at the Inn of the Mountain Gods in Mescalero. The GOP preprimary was held at Ruidoso.

This the Home of New Mexico Politics. 

Haaland

Deb Haaland easily overpowered Sam Bregman at the Democratic party preprimary convention at the Inn of the Mountain Gods this weekend, besting the BernCo District Attorney by winning the votes of 733 delegates for 73.52 percent of the vote. Bregman managed only 264 votes or 26.48 percent. The lopsided, decisive victory cemented Haaland's status as the clear front-runner in the race for the '26 Democratic gubernatorial nomination that will be decided at the June 2 primary election.

Complete preprimary results here.  

The result was not unexpected but the landslide margin was important for Haaland whose candidacy got off to an uneven start with lots of movement, but little substance and some internal strife. She has since steadied the ship but Bregman has rocked the boat with his repeated challenges for her to debate him. There also has been a whisper campaign against her--with the help of Republicans--that claims she does not have the smarts for the state's top job.

The preprimary win gives Haaland, the former Sec. of Interior under President Biden, the chance to head back on the trail with some air beneath her wings. Her campaign manager declared:

Her performance is a testament to the strong, winning campaign Deb continues to build. Our campaign has the winning message, the strongest and most experienced candidate, the best team, and the momentum to deliver a decisive victory in June and again in November.

Bregman's performance will be seen by party pros as nearly a death rattle and he will have much work to do to prevent that perception from locking in during the final weeks of the campaign. Following release of the preprimary results late Monday, he went to work:

The people of New Mexico, not a room full of party power brokers, will decide who leads this state. What we’re seeing across New Mexico is a campaign bringing in new voters, new voices, and people who know the old political playbook is leaving too many families behind. We checked the convention box. Now we’re taking our message directly to voters across the state. 

Bregman

While it's true that the preprimary does not signal an automatic primary, over the many years we have covered them we find that the Dem preprimary conventions are more reflective of the party as a whole while the Republican preprimary meets are less so.

Haaland's internal polling is obviously holding up well or she might not be so dismissive of Bregman's calls to debate her. (There is a quasi-debate/forum scheduled for the candidates May 2. Both will be there.) And she has plenty of money--if deployed wisely--to considerably outspend Bregman.  

Bregman came into the convention with a large TV buy behind him in which he attacked ICE and promised to prosecute any ICE agents who break state law. He has also rolled out an in-depth campaign  platform and been traveling the state extensively. But none of it stuck with the progressive Dems--who are the nominating wing of  the party--and whose love affair with fellow progressive Haaland has been long and ardous. That she would be the first Native American woman Governor sends them swooning.

For Bregman, an old pro with some old pros by his side, it is time to explore new paths. For Haaland the directive is to trod the straight and narrow road that is keeping her with a handsome lead. 

SOS RACE

The Dem nomination for Secretary of State is still up for grabs after the preprimary but Santa Fe County Clerk Katharine Clark has to be breathing easier after her 46%-36% win over Dona Ana County Clerk Amanda López Askin and third place finisher Sonya Smith who received 18 percent and will have to get more petition signatures to be on the primary ballot. 

This is a tight race between two ambitious, capable and politically astute women. The preprimary signals the edge that Clark may have in ABQ and Santa Fe where she has media exposure, but López Askin has that Las Cruces base and the Hispanic heritage that is so often a vote-getter in statewide contests.

Rather than giving us a front-runner for the SOS nomination, the preprimary affirmed that this race appears destined to go down to the wire. 

LT. GOV. CONTEST 

Speaking of SOS, the current one, Maggie Toulouse Oliver, is termed out and seeking the Dem nomination for lieutenant governor as is ABQ state Sen. Harold Pope. MTO had a solid 58 to 42 percent preprimary win over Pope but did not quite put him away. She will need a healthy media spend to do the job. 

Pope would be the state's first Black lt. governor. That and his legislative experience has made him plenty of fans in the party. 

There is also the issue of an all-female ticket. If Haaland and MTO were paired, they would be the first. In today's era this may not matter greatly but concern about having a gender balanced ticket may have helped Pope. MTO remains the heavy favorite in the June primary but Pope lives to fight another day. 

LAND OFFICE RESULTS 

Juan Sanchez

Sen. Martin Heinrich has been trying to take over the state land office for. . .well. . . a very long time. He went all-in for a Dem candidate friend in '16 but came up empty. This time he's backing his former political aide Juan Sanchez who is off to a decent start. 

Sanchez, of central NM, scored 56 percent of the delegates, crushing fellow rancher Jonas Moya of the eastside who did not make it on the ballot with his 7 percent. And there's more. . .  

Santa Fe area state Rep. Matthew McQueen, a darling of the environmental left, came with 37 percent and is not going away. Ironically, much of McQueen's base voters are the same as Heinrich's, an enviro senator if there ever was one. 

McQueen is a well-regarded state rep. Sanchez is a sharp politico with a possible ethnic advantage working for him if Jonas does not get on the ballot by getting more signatures.

If this stays a two way race keep a lookout for the fund-raising numbers. They could tell the tale.  

CONGRESS

The state's three Democratic US House members all ran unopposed for a ballot position--District one Rep. Melanie Stansbury; District 2 Rep. Gabe Vasquez and District 3 Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez. The Stansbury and TLF districts are ranked Safe Democratic here and the Vasquez district is Lean Democratic.

US Sen. Ben Ray Lujan, seeking a second term, was challenged by socialist Dem Matt Dodson. Lujan brushed it off by getting 86 percent support. Lujan is unopposed in the general election but the GOP is trying to field a write-in candidate.

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Former Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull reset the race for the '26 GOP gubernatorial nomination in Ruidoso Saturday by chalking up a formidable 57 percent preprimary convention win in the five way race for placement on the June 2 primary ballot. 

(All convention results here.) 

Hull, who received 239 of the 420 delegate votes, saw his campaign get off to a soft start as he sometimes acted uncertain about his commitment to the contest. Now he appears to have hit his stride with the significant convention win and the announcement that he has raised $400,000 for the battle ahead.

And a battle it promises to be as long Duke Rodriguez lives up to his pledge to spend upwards of $2 million of his personal fortune to be competitive. 

He has already purchased expensive full-page newspaper ads but now the true test arrives.

Turner

With a not unexpected poor third place showing of 39 votes (9.8 percent) among the delegates, self-described outsider Rodriguez is now on his own. Any flinching from his spending pledge could crush momentum and his candidacy. 

Rodriguez had already collected enough signatures (and beat back legal challenges) to qualify for the ballot without needing the required 20 percent of the primary delegate support. 

His backers say his position is somewhat similar to that of Mark Ronchetti in 2022. He also had little appeal to convention delegates and finished in last place but still went on to handily win that year's nomination.

Complicating the race is the respectable showing by ABQ businessmen Doug Turner, who has been out of sight and out of mind since his unsuccessful Guv run in 2010 when Susana Martinez won the Republican nomination.

This time around Turner secured the support of two former state GOP chairmen--Harvey Yates and Ryan Cangiolosi--to help vault him to a second place preprimary finish with 104 votes for 24.76 percent. 

Longtime GOP fund-raiser Andrea Goff is also with Turner who fought himself into the race with a late entry.

Turner's sleeper candidacy has awakened, but if not fully roused he and Hull could spoil each other's chances. Both represent the establishment wing of the party. If they split that vote and Rodriguez goes on to catch fire, it could hand the cannabis tycoon the win. 

WHERE'S TRUMP? 

Where is the outright Trump candidate? There is none. Neither Turner or Hull--moderate Republicans--nor outsider Rodriguez are looking to him for support. And Trump forces are not looking to win the state in November where the president's approval rating is below 40 percent, according to recent surveys.  

DUKE'S DETRACTORS 

Rodriguez

Meanwhile Duke detractors are busy working him over in the wake of the convention, dismissing his effort as a "vanity candidacy," with one GOP Alligator telling us the convention shows Rodriguez's support is "an inch wide and a quarter-inch deep." They assert he will ultimately be derailed by unresolved legal questions over his residency and that the GOP must jump off his ship now or risk disaster.

Rodriguez has struggled with those legal challenges but has prevailed in two lawsuits. Also, his often ebullient temperament has drawn criticism. 

But unlike Rodriguez, Hull and Turner are seen as comparatively colorless candidates who lack the charisma, name ID and energy that the 68 year old Rodriguez exhibits. And as the only Hispanic in the three way race, he gets an additional edge. 

The bottom line is that Rodriguez, the early front-runner for the nomination, has lost that status for now and the door has been opened for Hull and Turner. How long that will last may be up to how Rodriguez performs in the days ahead.

THREE WAY

It is a three way GOP Governor race because candidates Steve Lanier and James Ellison received little preprimary support (Lanier 31 votes or 7.38 percent and Ellison 7 votes oor 1.67%) and are not expected to submit the required petition signatures to make up for their failure to garner the required 20 percent support for automatic ballot placement.

LIGHT GUV

As uncertainty looms over the governor's race, Republicans are pleased with the race for #2--the lieutenant governor. They chose Eunice GOP state Senator David Gallegos to carry their flag. Gallegos scored 67%; A. Blair Dunn 19% and Manuel Lardizabal 15 percent. 

The thing about Gallegos is he fits like a glove with whomever the GOP chooses as their gubernatorial nominee. His SE NM roots and Hispanic heritage are ideal for a statewide ticket led by a candidate from the ABQ area---where the three governor candidates are from. He is also an experienced and  knowledgeable legislator.  

ROAD TO CONGRESS

Greg Cunningham

Hopefuls for the state's three congressional seats were also vying for ballot placement at the convention. A mild surprise was the collapse of the candidacy of DEA contractor Jose Orozco in the race for the southern-centered Second Congressional District. Former APD officer and Marine vet Greg Cunningham overwhelmed him by getting 87 percent of delegate support. 

Even if Orozco goes the petition route to get on the June ballot, he will not have money. National Republicans--still hoping to take the seat away from Dem. Rep Gabe Vasquez--will now push Orozco out. The seat is ranked lean Democratic after two wins by Vasquez.

In the First Congressional District in ABQ and some SE NM territory, popular Dem Rep. Melanie Stansbury has few worries. Didi Okpareke beat Steve Jones and will be the GOP nominee. But she is unknown and under-financed. Stansbury was first elected at a June 2021 special election and has become the most vocal member of the state's congressional delegation as well as the most outspoken anti-Trump member.

In the northern Third Congressional District the race will be a bit more interesting. GOP state Rep. Martin  Zamora of Curry county is unchallenged for the nomination. Republicans describe the rancher/businessman as "solid." They believe he will at least test Dem Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez as she seeks a fourth term to represent the sprawling and heavy Dem district. 

MORE STATEWIDE ACTION 

Insiders have long pegged former Assistant State Land Commissioner and Chaves County Commissioner Michael Perry as a top notch choice for the GOP nod for Land Commissioner. He was unchallenged at the convention and will be the nominee. There is a three way race for the Democratic nomination.

In the race for Secretary of State Ramona Goolsby was tapped as the GOP nominee. 

The Dems have two powerhouse candidates competing for their nomination--County Clerks Clark of Santa Fe and López Askin of Dona Ana--and are expected to easily keep the office in their column. 

The GOP nominee for attorney general will be Las Cruces attorney Sam Kane. No Republicans ran for state auditor or treasurer. Incumbent Auditor Joseph Maestas and incumbent Treasurer Laura Montoya get free rides for second terms. 

MONAHAN'S BOTTOM LINES 

Democrats are in good shape to continue their hold on the governorship, all three congressional seats and the statewide executive offices. Look to the state land commission contest for any change to that scenario. 

Democrats also met in Ruidoso Saturday for their preprimary convention. Their vote was done through an absentee process. Results are expected later today.

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A spate of good economic news has arrived in New Mexico but it's largely due to bad news from around the globe. 

An ABQ defense firm says they are expanding their workforce to manufacture more drones which have become a weapon of choice in the Ukraine and Middle East wars.

DC is looking to Los Alamos Labs to build even more plutonium pits for nuclear weapons which would send the Labs' already robust budget even higher. 

As always the most important development for the state is the price of oil. This time the price has shot up from the low 60's to the low 70's per barrel because of the Iran oil shock. How long it will stay there, of course, is unknowable but the big price jump makes it timely to look at the impact that war and the oil price has on the state. 

A one-dollar change in the price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has outsized impact on the state budget. New Mexico is now the second-largest oil producer in the U.S.--thanks to the ongoing boom in the Permian Basin in SE NM. 

For every $1.00 increase in the annual average price per barrel of oil, the state's General Fund gains approximately $30 million to $35 million. When you include the tax and royalty money that goes into the Early Childhood Trust Fund and other savings—the total impact can top $45 million per dollar change. 

While a $1.00 increase is a boon, the state is also vulnerable to the downside. If oil drops $10 below the forecast, the state suddenly faces a $300 million to $350 million hole.

State law now requires that "excess" oil and gas revenue (anything above the five-year average) be diverted into permanent funds rather than spent on daily operations. This acts as a shock absorber so the state doesn't have to cut essential services if the price crashes.

The oil boom has been a gift for New Mexico politicos who have legislated with barely any financial pressure throughout the two terms of MLG. Will that continue for the next Governor and legislature? That's out state's most expensive question.

ATTENTION CANDIDATES

We get this from Bernalillo County of special interest to those running for election this year:

Candidate Filing Day for County Commissioner (Districts 1 & 5) County Assessor, County Sheriff and County Probate Judge for the June 2 primary is Tuesday, March 10, from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. at county commission chambers downtown. Candidates must also complete and submit a Bernalillo County Statement of Certain Financial Interests. Candidates should review the Secretary of State's Primary Candidate Guide and required forms prior to filing

WHITMAN WATCH

Whitman

Billionaire Meg Whitman, settling into ABQ as her new residence, continues to make the rounds. After penning a newspaper op-ed about the state's economic future, she has now conducted a half-hour newspaper video interview posted on social media. The discussion did not touch upon any public service ambitions Whitman may have here. 

Reliable sources have told us that Whitman could have her eye on the soon-to-be vacant presidency of the University of New Mexico. 

She is a former CEO of Hewlett Packard, a Republican turned Democrat who served as ambassador to Kenya under President Biden and once ran for governor of California. Her husband, now leads the UNM Neurosurgery department. 

This the Home of New Mexico Politics. 

Councilor Paul Wymer

Rio Rancho, the state's third largest city, chose GOP City Councilor Paul Wymer as their favorite mayoral candidate last night, sending him to an April 14 run-off election with Democrat Alex Piland.

Wymer goes into that second election a heavy favorite after claiming 45 percent of the vote in the Republican leaning city to Piland's 27 percent with four other hopefuls trailing.  

(City election results from around the state here.) 

Wymer, a licensed architect who has lived in the City of Vision since 1984, has been on the Council since 2020 and has been supportive of the policies of current GOP Mayor Gregg Hull who is leaving the post he has held since 2012 to run for Governor. 

Piland, a retired teacher and "proud Latina," is a former chair of the Sandoval county Democratic party.  

Hull leaves city government popular and praised for attracting more business to the city that keeps more tax revenue in local coffers instead of going to ABQ. Affordable housing has continued to expand during his tenure and Rio Rancho has escaped the crime wave that engulfed ABQ.

Alex Piland

Wymer wants to continue to develop the tax base and provide a "balanced' approach to government similar to Hull. Some nicknamed him "the continuity candidate."

Piland, endorsed by the Sierra Club, leans into social issues more than Wymer. 

Rio Rancho's once explosive growth has settled down this past decade but still sports an annual growth rate of about 1.7 percent, much higher than the rest of the state. The current population is about 116,500 only slightly behind Las Cruces with about 119,500 residents. 

TARGETING SAM 

Deb Haaland may be taking a hands-off approach when it comes to directly attacking Sam Bregman before Saturday's important Democratic party preprimary convention but that doesn't mean her supporters and political operatives are sitting on the bench.  Far from it. 

As seen here ProgressNow New Mexico, a longtime progressive group, is out with a blast aimed at the BernCo District Attorney who has made his anti-ICE stance a centerpiece of his campaign:  

For years (as a trial attorney) Sam Bregman' specialty was defending cops accused of crimes against New Mexicans. Now, running for re-election, he suddenly finds his voice against abuse of power? This isn't consistency. It's political convenience. New Mexico deserves better. 

Bregman's long career as a noted trial lawyer before becoming DA is not the only soft spot the Bregman posse is zeroing in on. 

On Saturday state Democrats will hold that preprimary convention at the Inn of the Mountain Gods at Ruidoso. Delegates will vote to place Bregman and Haaland on the June 2 ballot with 20 percent support required, if a candidate is to avoid the embarrassment of being forced to submit extra petition signatures to make the grade. 

Bregman is expected to get to that 20 percent mark but the Haaland camp appears to have its sights set on a "blowout" victory that keeps Bremgan in the 20's and delivers a psychological blow to him. 

While Bregman absorbs the hits before the preprimary, right after he will have to face the dilemma of attacking Haaland directly, if he s to make a race of this. 

That will be tricky because of her popularity in the party and her status as possibly the first Native American to be elected governor. So far Bregman has stepped gingerly, claiming Haaland is scared to debate him but landing few other punches. If he is knocked to the canvas Saturday, his time to come out swinging will grow shorter. 

This the Home of New Mexico Politics. 

Deb Haaland

 Is the debate over debates over? It seems so.

After weeks of chiding from Sam Bregman for not agreeing to debates, Deb Haaland's camp has clarified that there is one debate scheduled and she will take part:

The announcement comes after Haaland agreed to the debate in September 2025. The debate will be hosted by Dukes Up and air statewide on PBS. It will be held on May 2 at CNM’s Smith Brasher Auditorium and is free to the public. “I am excited to share my agenda with New Mexicans. From standing up to Donald Trump to lowering costs to expanding access to health care, I have the most experience of any candidate running for governor. I look forward to meeting my opponent on the stage and letting voters decide." Haaland said. 

It may be the bare minimum but usually when a candidate agrees to at least one debate, it takes the issue off the table. And make no mistake this is the bare minimum. Haaland continues to reject invitations for other debates with Bregman as they battle for the June 2 gubernatorial primary nomination.

Those continued refusals reveal both her weakness and strength. 

Her weakness is fear that she still does not have a grasp on policy nuance that could be her undoing in a face-to-face confrontation. Her strength is her continued popularity among Democratic base voters that make unnecessary any risk-on moves such as debating. 

Haaland's camp tells newsman Daniel Chacón they are rejecting a KRQE-TV invite to engage with Bregman:

Deb has a commanding lead in the race to be New Mexico’s next Governor. That’s because New Mexicans know Deb and understand she can lead our state and fight Trump’s abuse of power. . .Deb has been traveling all over the state and if voters want to hear from her, there are plenty of opportunities to hear from her directly.

Bregman has been spinning internal polling to show that the race is actually tightening but Haaland's avoidance of debates indicate that she sees the contest as still heavily tilting her way and that there are few consequences for refusing to debate the aggressive BernCo District Attorney. 

Bregman has been doing his best to put the heat on. He has focused on Haaland for flying on a private jet in 2014 with Dem Guv candidate Gary King that was chartered by convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. But the story does not seem to have legs--despite a push poll conducted by Bregman that showed otherwise. 

The stymied Bregman did come with some of his best lines in reacting to Haaland's rejection of the KRQE debate:

(Voters are) asking for answers about public safety, about accountability, and about how we make sure predators like Epstein never find protection or proximity to power in our state. If you want to lead New Mexico, you don’t avoid the biggest stage in the state. You show up. You debate. You put your record and your ideas side by side and let voters decide.

BOMBASTIC VS. PENSIVE 

Sam Bregman

The May PBS forum where Haaland has agreed to engage with Bregman lacks the spark, tension and the large audience commanded by a a live televised debate on one of the major commercial networks (like KRQE) where any Haaland missteps would be amplified. 

Bregman, a bombastic trial attorney, is known for his love of the camera. Haaland is more pensive and on less sure footing under the glare of the spotlight. That showed when she served as Secretary of Interior and struggled to answer congressional questions at several oversight hearings. 

While Haaland may come across as shallow on policy, there is no denying that she harbors superb political instincts. She was elected to and presided successfully as chair of the state Democratic party; she easily won the '14 Dem Lt. Gov. nomination; was elected to two terms from the ABQ congressional seat and fought off Sen. Martin Heinrich and other heavyweight contenders to become the first Native American to be named Secretary of Interior.

Bregman can choose to push harder to get the debate door open but knocking elsewhere may be in order. 

THE BOTTOM LINES

Gary King slipped quietly into private life following his '14 loss for governor but now King and his legendary political family find themselves back in the spotlight and not in a favorable way. More on the king family ties to Jeffrey Epstein and the Zorro ranch they sold to him continues to unfold. The latest here.  

This the Home of New Mexico Politics. 

Friday's dismissal of a second lawsuit challenging Duke Rodriguez's right to be on the June 2 primary ballot sets the stage for the next big moment--Saturday's GOP preprimary at Ruidoso where delegates from across the state will vote on placing candidates on the ballot. 

Insiders don't expect Rodriguez, nicknamed the Cannabis King for his ownership of Ultra Health, the state's leading legal marijuana business, to win that convention. He faces competitors Gregg Hull, Steve Lanie, Doug Turner and Jim Ellison. 

Those insiders point to several reasons for Rodriguez's expected mediocre preprimary showing. One is his status as a party outsider. Another is the disclosure reported on this blog that in the past decade he has donated at least $189,000 to the campaigns of Democratic candidates.

"They absolutely hate that," declared a GOP operative now desperate to slow Rodriguez in the aftermath of his two court wins. 

It will take 20 percent of the voting delegates--(about 500 voted in 2024) for a candidate to secure a party-approved spot on the ballot. That's a low bar but Rodriguez actually does not need to cross it to continue his candidacy. Candidates who don't reach that threshold can submit more petition signatures to get on he ballot and Rodriguez already has more than enough to do just that. 

Outsider Guv candidate Mark Ronchetti saw the writing on the wall when he ran in 2024. He bypassed the convention and still went on to easily win the nomination.

Not Duke. He is living up to his reputation as a scrappy fighter and is twisting arms to get to the 20 percent. If he does he will see it as a victory that further demoralizes his foes. If he doesn't, there is little downside.

STOPPING DUKE 

Can his opponents keep him under 20 percent and ignite some enthusiasm to stop his wild romp toward the nomination? A big win by one of them--perhaps Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull--might help reset the race and make it more competitive--if such a win resulted in better fundraising.

Amplifying the desperation of the anti-Duke chorus is that pledge he's made to spend upwards of $2 million of his own money on the primary. He's been making good on it by buying expensive full-page newspaper ads and a digital presence. 

While Republicans may hate his Dem donations, the party of business loves it when a candidate has that kind of skin in the game. 

The preprimary will be conducted in a still unsettled legal environment surrounding the Rodriguez candidacy. The District Court rulings on the two lawsuits challenging his NM residency could be appealed and undergo the legal scrutiny they have so far evaded. Both suits were dismissed for technical reasons with the residency issues going unaddressed,

But that's down the road. For now Rodriguez appears to own the road that leads to Primary Night '26.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Former state Senator John Sapien, once a ringleader of the now defunct conservative Dem coalition that ruled the chamber, is back in politics. The Corrales businessman is running in the June primary for an open seat on the Sandoval County Commission. It's familiar territory for Sapien. His late father once represented the same commission district. . .The infamous New Mexico Zorro Ranch is getting a closer look as the Epstein files continue to filter out. The NYT takes a long look. 

This the Home of New Mexico Politics.