The New Mexico economy has has been a blog specialty the past two decades so a survey from the Harvard Kennedy School grabbed our attention. It's titled New Mexico's Economy Over Time and Space. The report offers interesting insights on the state's challenges, many of which have been explored here. excerpts from the report:

THE BEGINNING--Slowdowns and uneven growth meant that New Mexico never attracted people in the way that Arizona, Colorado, or Utah did. Recent population growth has been the slowest in the last 120 years, indicating important economic problems that have made people “vote with their feet.”. . New Mexico missed early waves of manufacturing that benefited other states. This likely indicates a limit on how much manufacturing growth is possible, as the state has fewer capabilities. . .Mining, including the extraction of oil and gas, grew to be a critical part of the economy and government revenues, but never accounted for more than 10% of jobs. Government activity also grew to be a large part of the state economy because of both state and federal funding.

ECONOMIC DRIVERS--New Mexico’s economy is striking for the variation of economic performance and drivers across the state. Many rural areas are still responding to economic shocks to their sources of income that often happened many decades ago. In an ideal world, major urban hubs would absorb the outmigration from regions that are losing population. However, as rural communities navigate these challenges, urban areas have not been in a strong enough position to absorb displaced populations or in-migration. As the economy has evolved from industries that are rooted in place (such as agriculture and mining) to industries that thrive in more urban settings (such as professional services), the weaknesses of urban economies in New Mexico in comparison to other states stand out.

THE CHALLENGES--New Mexico’s per capita growth has been relatively low, and its income level has fallen further behind other states. . .The period of 2005-17 was exceptionally weak, marked by several years of per capita contraction. . .Arguably, the most important problem over 2005-17 was that state and local government activity made the downturn worse when fiscal policy could have partially offset the pain of the downturn. The decline in state government activity appears to be driven by a significant drop in tax collection that was only partially cushioned by increased federal spending. While New Mexico is now enjoying more robust growth, an economic upswing since 2018 has yet to offset the effects of a prolonged stagnation. Past dynamics suggest that today’s “boom” in growth will likely be followed by a period of “bust”. Whether the current higher growth should be expected to continue hinges on the sustainability of current growth drivers and the potential for others to emerge.

THE COUNTIES--A few urban counties, most of all Bernalillo County, drive the state’s overall economic activity, and their growth has lagged national trends. One can see the effects of state-level downturns across many counties, but state growth does not translate equally in all counties. In fact, some counties have grown in a negatively correlated way with statewide growth over the last 25 years. Depending on their local economic drivers, some counties are growing rapidly — for example, Lea and Eddy counties, which benefit directly from current oil and gas expansion in the Permian Basin. Several rural counties have seen growth, driven by different sectors in recent years, even as they face long-term pressures. Meanwhile, several urban economies are struggling to absorb population and labor. A deep dive into Albuquerque’s growth finds that an undersupply of housing is the most binding constraint today.

THE SUCCESSES-- Recent successes, including business investments in Albuquerque and Las Cruces and the expansion of universal childcare and tuition-free college, mark important steps forward. The state has channeled a great part of its oil and gas windfalls into permanent funds, ensuring increased reserves for use in education, early childhood, and future flexibility. Annual distributions from these reserves now account for major shares of education spending. . . New Mexico has also had some success in targeting sectors for investment attraction and in a public push in site development and site readiness for investment. The state also faces new and recurring stressors, and this report has several implications for strategy moving forward. 

SUGGESTIONS--New Mexico has improved its ability to save revenues generated during the current resource boom, but it will have to navigate spending tradeoffs. We suggest more deployment of fiscal resources to expand regional capacity to attract investment and actions to better address housing supply in urban areas. . .While New Mexico is moving in the right direction by targeting sectors and identifying key sites for development, the diversity of regional challenges and opportunities calls for greater regional tailoring. County-by-county analyses of diversification opportunities are available in this online repository. As for labor supply constraints, investments in childcare and higher education effectively target long-term pressures on talent retention. However, the obstacle remains housing. There are state and local actions that can be taken to allow housing supply to better meet growing demand.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics. 

Sens. Mullin and Heinrich

If anyone still wonders why Sen. Martin Heinrich will not be the Democratic nominee for Governor this year look no further than his eyebrow raising decision to cross party lines and vote to confirm Sen. Markwayne Mullin as the new Secretary of the Homeland Security Department. Only one other Democrat voted for Mullin (Sen. Fetterman) who was approved Monday 54-45. The Heinrich vote was a direct slap in the faces of progressive Democrats (and many others) who months ago rallied around Deb Haaland and thwarted Heinrich's gubernatorial plans.

Heinrich's vote to confirm the controversial Mullin was not seen as a "meeting of the moment" for voters anxious for bipartisanship. Rather, it was viewed as a serious misread of the room in a majority-minority state that is haunted by the aggressive actions of ICE.

Heinrich knows that because he sees the polling of Hispanic voters who had a flirtation with Trump in 2024 but who are now fleeing him in wake of the ICE mishaps and Trump's overall immigration crackdown.  

Heinrich was safely re-elected to a third term in 2024 and does not stand for re-election until 2030--eons away in politics. But the senators centrism, born in the early part of this century when it was the favored flavor but has since gone the way of the typewriter, has isolated him from his party.

He explained his vote this way: 

I consider Markwayne Mullin a friend. We have a very honest and constructive working relationship. We have authored legislation together, such as the Tribal Buffalo Management Act, and we crafted the Legislative Branch Appropriations bill together this year. We often disagree and when we do, we work to find whatever common ground we share.I have also seen first-hand that Markwayne is not someone who can simply be bullied into changing his views, and I look forward to having a Secretary who doesn’t take their orders from Stephen Miller. For five years, under this and the previous Trump Administration, I have lacked any constructive relationship with the Secretary of Homeland Security. This is despite my state being home to hundreds of TSA, CBP and Border Patrol constituents and many miles of the U.S./Mexico border. I want someone who recognizes the necessity of judicial warrants, as he has. I would like a Secretary who I can call and have a constructive conversation with about my state and the unique terrain that exists in the southwest and the proper mix of structure, technology and personnel necessary to effectively secure our border.m For these reasons, I will vote to confirm Markwayne Mullin to be Secretary of Homeland Security.

THE PUSHBACK 

On the socials the attacks were swift and pointed from Democrats. Elaine Cimino came with a cutting rebuttal:  

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Higher for longer is the catch phrase for the New Mexico economy and the politics that follow.

State economists forecast the average oil price at $58 a barrel for the current budget year---July 2025-June 2026--but since the Iran war broke out nearly a month ago the average has been far above that mark, with West Texas oil still trading near $90 a barrel Monday. Then there's this Wall Street prediction:

If the oil price exceeds the state's projected $58 mark for at  least three months and WTI averaged $70 a barrel, the capitol's bean counters say it would mean about $600 million more in oil boom money as production cranks up. If oil goes to $90 and stays there the state windfall could soar to over $1 billion, a nice pop for the $13 billion state budget. 

Of course, the downside risk is equally dramatic and a price crash can't be ruled out. 

Then there's the dramatic increase for consumers filling up their gas tanks--which brings us to the politics.

Dem Guv Sam Bregman's proposal for $500 rebates for residents making less than $200,000 a year is aimed at  softening the impact of the energy shock but critics say the plan is premature given the extreme uncertainty in the oil market. Only when the money is safely tucked away under the Santa Fe mattress, they argue, should rebates join the campaign conversation. Until then, how much higher and for how long remains the state's catch phrase. 

NOT HOWIE

Some wall-leaners thought Lt. Gov. Howie Morales, 53, an educator from Silver City with a PhD, might have a shot at becoming the next president of Western NM University but it was not to be:

Amy Barela

If history is any guide, there appears to be little wiggle room for NMGOP Chair Amy Barela to hold on to her position. 

Republicans are being ripped apart by Barela's decision not to vacate the chairmanship when an opponent filed to challenge her in the GOP primary for her Otero County Commission seat. Party rules state when that happens the chair must give up the chairmanship. The rule:

In the event the state chairman or any other state officer of the Republican State Central Committee files as a candidate for public office and there is another Republican who has filed for the same office, the state officer shall immediately vacate the party office. In that event, the successor shall be selected in the manner for filling vacancies as provided for in these rules. Please note the result of this rule is mandatory and not up for discussion or debate.

State Sen. Jim Townsend of Artesia, taking Barela's side against the big city ABQ Republicans, tries to spin the rule to her advantage:

A similar scenario played out in 2004 when ABQ GOP state Senator Ramsay Gorham faced a bitter intraparty fracas when she drew a primary foe for her North Valley seat. Gorham initially refused to leave but eventually gave in and not only resigned her chairmanship but vacated her senate seat as well. 

We were there and covered the Gorham story--one of the more sensational in state GOP history. From the April 1, 2004 blog:

Ramsay Gorham

The crisis in the New Mexico Republican Party reached the breaking point Wednesday, leaving all to wonder who will pick up the pieces. The sudden resignation of Chair Ramsay Gorham after a ten month political melodrama that pitted her against the forces of John Dendahl, the chairman she ousted just last year, served only to heighten concerns that the party was hopelessly divided and, as a result, President Bush could be robbed of the state's precious five electoral votes in the coming election. 

Back then the NMGOP had real power. This was a swing presidential state with George W. Bush narrowly losing it in 2000 and winning it in 2004. GOP Senator Domenici held sway over a powerful congressional delegation and the state legislature was Purple---not Blue as it is today. Who was in charge of the GOP mattered.

GOP HUMILIATION 

Flash forward and the GOP looks as if it has endured an extinction level event. Barela is being called out for ignoring party rules when it comes to her primary, but a worse sin may be her party's inability to field candidates to oppose Democrats. 

The party has been humiliated as it seeks to place write in candidates on the ballot to run against US Sen. Ben Ray Lujan as well as state treasurer and state auditor. The party is shut out from all of the statewide executive offices and faces long odds to take the governorship this year.

The once might GOP has fallen. While yesteryear's intraparty spats were akin to watching a heavyweight boxing match, today the wrangling resembles a playground dust-up.

Barela continues to resist calls for her resignation. The GOP State Central Committee could take action to remove her or the controversy could end up in court. 

We did it again--incorrectly identifying Santa Fe's standing among the state's largest cities. First, we had the City Different as the second largest then third, but it is actually the fourth largest, behind ABQ, Las Cruces and Rio Rancho. Why do we keep screwing this up? Well, for Las Cruces it may be out of sight, out of mind. For Rio Rancho it could be because it seems like a suburb not a city, leaving ABQ and Santa Fe. We're working on it. . . 

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During the ABQ mayoral campaign last year we noted how crime did not appear to have its usual impact and that voters were pivoting to the economy and especially the high cost of daily life. Flash forward and here come the '26 gubernatorial candidates.

Democrat Sam Bregman is calling for a "reimbursement of up to $500 per family member to New Mexico families earning less than $200,000 a year" and financing it with the revenue windfall the state continues to receive from the oil boom. He says:

While Trump’s illegal war in Iran has driven oil prices higher and boosted our state’s revenue, too many families are still struggling to pay for groceries, rent, and gas. When I am Governor, I will return a portion of this surplus directly to the people.”

State revenue would get boosted from the higher prices caused by the war, but they would have to stay high for a matter of months--not weeks--for the money to be realized. 

SWEEPING PLAN

For a more sweeping economic strategy look to Republican Duke Rodriguez. He is now amping up his call for a complete elimination of the state's personal income tax---as ten other states have. He delivers a double whammy by advancing a proposal to abolish the often controversial gross receipts tax on "all retail sales."

Rodriguez

Rodriguez says the gross receipts reform would cost the state "nearly a billion" annually but with Santa Fe carrying annual surpluses three times that amount, he argues it is doable. 

And it may be more politically doable than in the past. After all, since MLG took office in 2019, she has overseen the first state reductions in the GRT rate in over 40 years, winning two cuts that took the state rate from 5.125% to 4.875%. That paves the way for a future governor. 

(Remember, local governments get their own share of GRT. The overall local rates often soar to over 8 or even 9 percent. A bill that would have taken ABQ's rate over 8% was defeated at the City Council this week.)

Leading Dem Guv hopeful Deb Haaland is sticking to a progressive path on the economy, advocating for a higher minimum wage and increases in the child care and working families tax credits. But the GRT is notoriously anti-progressive, hitting lower income families the most. There is plenty of room for Haaland to get on board with a GRT cut.

The sweeping Rodriguez plan may have looked alien a decade ago but with the state's immense reserves, the affordability crisis taking hold and the economy becoming a political football, his plan could be quickly mainstreamed at the Legislature even if his candidacy fails. 

DATELINE SANTA FE (CONT.) 

Mayor Garcia

Comments and observations on the Wednesday blog critical of the performance of Santa Fe Mayor Michael Garcia in his first months in office, including during a local KTRC radio program, drew a lengthy response from the new mayor. Here are some excerpts edited for brevity:

Here are a few highlights of what our administration has been up to:

--Successfully worked to negotiate a land swap deal with the State. This not only required negotiating with the General Services Department, but also required getting the approval of the legislature. This required me to gain support for the proposal from legislators (and)testify in both Senate and House committees. . . I am proud to report that the land swap proposal passed unanimously. . .This land swap will allow for the city to attain land in the Midtown campus. This newly acquired land will be crucial for future affordable housing development. 

 --Began the process of formally reorganizing city government to reduce bureaucratic bloat. It is my priority to build a leaner and stronger city government. This proposal is scheduled to be approved by the governing body next Wednesday. 

 --Addressing the matter of the Soldiers Monument. There were actions that the previous administration did not take, such as formally reaching out to the US Veterans Administration. I am following Judge Matthew Wilson’s order, which requires me to work with the State Historic Preservation Office (SHPO) on the next steps with the monument. I have also been working collaboratively with the state Cultural Affairs Department on this topic. A first step was to pass a resolution that gave the approval to temporaily placethe broken obelisk portion of the Soldiers Monument in the New Mexico History Museum. This resolution was passed March 10. A full proposal will be coming forward very soon regarding my recommendation on how to move forward with the remains of the monument. This is not a unilateral decision I get to make. 

 --We submitted our annual city audit early. This is a drastic change from the previous administration as past audits were consistently submitted late. --Bringing forward a contract for speeding and noise cameras. This will help to address the aggressive driving and excessive muffler noise that is impacting our city. We are planning for an April 8th approval by the governing body. 

I am proud of what we have been able to accomplish in our first 77 days given the circumstances our administration inherited. What I highlighted above does not fully cover all the work that we have accomplished thus far. Our team is working diligently so that city government can earn back the trust of Santa Fe residents. 

Garcia presides over the fourth largest city in the state. A blog headline over our Wednesday report initially said ABQ and Santa Fe were the state's "two largest cities." 

KELLER RESPONSE 

City Hall spokesman Alex Curtas came with this response to the criticism of ABQ Mayor Keller, also on that Wednesday blog:

Just in the three weeks since I started with the city we've had a $30 million economic development announcement (BlueHalo/AV), a Journal story about Mayor's priorities, completion of phase 3 of Daniel Webster Park, the launch of an important traffic safety campaign (Stop for Everyone), announced the 3 APD chief finalists, launched a major Westside road improvement project, and announced a partnership between APS and the Real Time Crime Center. Phew. If that's sluggish we might have a different idea of that word.

This the Home of New Mexico Politics. 

Mayor Keller

Despite their robust election victories in November ABQ Mayor Tim Keller and his Santa Fe counterpart Michael Garcia are off to sluggish starts. 

Keller has gone mostly incognito after securing an unprecedented third term, with one TV reporter having to chase him down the street to get a comment on his selection process for a new APD chief. Keller running from a camera is like seeing a lion saying no thanks to a beef steak. It just doesn't happen.

While Keller hibernates the City Council strays and seems rudderless. They needlessly stepped into a mine field by taking up a tax increase just as the cost of living has risen to the top of the agenda. Predictability it was defeated but revealed the lack of a real agenda among the councilors.

That Keller did not even make a whisper about the hot button item showed an unusual level of disengagement for the usually peripatetic politico. 

Keller appears to be playing wait and see and relaxing into this third term. He won approval of most of his programs for homelessness and crime in the first two terms. The receding of post-pandemic crime nationally helped power him to re-election despite the crime wave that struck the city earlier. 

The verdict remains out on ABQ's expensive efforts to combat homelessness. Based on the experience of other cities dealing with the plight, we could be in for a quasi-permanent state where the number of unhoused stays sticky and the price tag remains high. The continued flow of drugs and the challenges of rehab extends the anguish.

DATELINE SANTA FE  

Mayor Garcia

In Sana Fe freshly minted Mayor Michael Garcia is coming across cautious and bureaucratic--not what was expected when he was successfully marketed as a new face with bold attributes. The city's decision to continue the debate over what to do about the historic obelisk that was torn down by protesters nearly six years ago on the downtown plaza gives him an aura of indecisiveness and floundering. 

"I keep waiting for him to get moving but he doesn't," opines Santa Fe radio host Richard Eeds of Garcia's tentative start.

Gracia may be on a long learning curve, despite his previous service as a city councilor or he may be a bureaucrat in hiding and what you see is what you get. Those expecting more punch certainly hope not. 

Keller won't stay scarce before the TV cameras for long. It's not in his nature. With his most vociferous critics now quieted, he has an opportunity to make things more interesting--or take a long nap.  

This the Home of New Mexico Politics. 

Bregman and Haaland

For the first time, decline to state voters in New Mexico will have the chance to vote in the Democratic or Republican primaries June 2 but they will likely have little impact on the outcome of the gubernatorial or other contests.

The chief reason is the very low number of independents expected to take advantage of the opportunity to vote. Longtime New Mexico pollster Brian Sanderoff estimates only about 10 percent of the 364,000 voters registered as "decline to state" will cast ballots in the primary election. He admits that could be on the high side. 

Sanderoff bases his prediction on innumerable polls he has conducted here and on the experience of other other states that have allowed independents to get in on the primary action. For the June election here, his forecast would mean the addition of about 36,400 independent voters. Again, that could be on the high side. 

So what would the impact of that hypothetical turnout mean for Deb Haaland and Sam Bregman who are vying for the Dem Guv nomination and the three GOP Guv candidates expected to be the choices for Republicans?

Assume 60 percent of those 36,400 independents opt to vote Democratic--not unusual considering the party's dominance here and the overall blue lean of the state. That would be 21,840 new Democratic voters. Further assume that moderate Dem Bregman beats Haaland handily with them--55 percent to  45 percent. That would be a pick up of 2,184 votes for Bregman,

Turnout in the open 2018 Dem governor primary was about 176,000 and a similar or even larger number can be expected this year. A big Bregman independent win (that 2,184) would amount to about 1.25 percent of the total votes cast. Even an unlikely 65 percent independent win by the BernCo DA would make no appreciable difference---unless the race was exceptionally tight. 

In 2018 MLG beat two primary opponents with 66 percent or 59,000 votes. Haaland, according to public polling, is ahead of Bregman by at least 10 percent and probably more. That would put her on track for at least a 17,600 vote win with a 176,000 turnout, if Bregman got to 45 percent. 

If Bregman could somehow break the mold and stimulate a larger than expected turnout among independents, he could improve his chances. But that's a longshot. His best chance as well as Haaland's is to diligently cater to Democratic base voters who will continue to be the nominating wing of the state's largest party regardless of the entry of independents.

In the GOP primary, barring a squeaker of a race, we can rinse and repeat basically the same analysis in the chase for their gubernatorial nomination. 

About 118,000 voters showed up for the open GOP 2022 primary. Under the turnout forecast we are using, about 14,560 indys would join them this year. In a three way race where a dominant candidate received 40 percent to 60 percent for the two challengers, the winner would pick up 1,456 votes--not inconsequential but not a game-changer. 

TAX REJECTED 

Late Monday the ABQ City Council rejected a proposal to raise the gross receipts tax by nearly half a percent, an issue we blogged about Monday. From the Council: 

The Council voted down the Community Enhancement Municipal Gross Receipts Tax Monday night. The ordinance, sponsored by Councilors Baca and Bassan, would have imposed a 0.4875% excise tax on gross receipts for businesses operating in Albuquerque, with revenues dedicated to municipal capital projects and general operational purposes.  

Councilors Brook Bassan and Joaquín Baca co-sponsored the tax hike but voted no vote after saying amendments "killed the spirit" of the bill.  It failed on a 8-1 vote with only Councilor Feibelkorn voting in favor. 

ZORRO RANCH (CONT,)

Zorro Ranch

The investigation into the Epstein NM ranch gets an in-depth look from NBC:

This the Home of New Mexico Politics. 

ABQ GOP City Councilor Dan Lewis tells us the move to increase the city's gross receipts tax by nearly half a percent will not win approval, if it comes to a vote at tonight's Council meeting. Still, the mere idea of raising taxes in a city with no looming fiscal crisis has both business interests and progressives on high alert and united in opposition. 

The gross receipts tax would soar to over 8 percent if the tax is approved, settling at 8.113 percent. The tax is already known as a business killer as it adds that amount to most retail purchases--like restaurants--as well as bills sent out by professionals such as architects, attorneys and CPA's. 

The tax is especially tough on lower income households who spend most of their money on every day goods and live paycheck to paycheck. Former US attorney and '25 progressive mayoral candidate Alex Uballez explains:

A regressive tax means that it disproportionately impacts low-and-moderate-income ABQ residents through higher prices on goods and services. While it can be used to generate local revenue (good thing!), these kinds of increases can place a higher relative burden on lower-income households.  

The oddest part of the plan is that it comes from a Republican--NE Heights City Councilor Brook Bassan--who barely survived her 2023 re-election bid when she fudged her education credentials. Is this her off-key swan song? 

The hike is co-sponsored by Dem Councilor Joaquin Baca who is pushing an unpopular downtown performing arts center. 

BROOK'S OBSESSION 

Bassan has been obsessed with completing the the aquatic center at North Domingo Baca Park that has become a money pit. It appears part of the tax increase would go to finish the boondoggle that Bassan has been unable to move to completion. 

Councilor Bassan

By mid-2023 the city had raised roughly $$40$ million for the center. Inflation pushed the project cost from around $$32$ million to about $$50$ million. One 2026 estimate now has the projected cost near $$70$ million. Is that what we'll see with other projects the Councilor has in mind for her tax increase? 

The odd couple of Bassan and Baca say that the $113 million the tax would generate annually would be devoted to a variety of capital outlay projects and maintenance of parks and the like. 

The Councilors say the tax could even lead to free admission to golf courses, the BioPark and museums. However, skeptics point out that only a small fraction of the populace uses those facilities, yet everyone would be forced to shoulder the new tax to run them.

INEFFECTIVE LEADERSHIP?

Councilor Baca

The Councilors point out that Albuquerque is behind on capital projects, but opponents say forcing a tax hike is a sign of ineffective leadership. Instead of looking to Santa Fe—which is currently awash in billions of dollars in surplus—the Council and Mayor have failed to secure the necessary funding or increase the city’s bonding capacity. Now, they want to use half of this new tax increase to back $360 million in bonds for projects that remain largely unnamed.

Worse yet, this proposal arrives amidst global instability. With the Middle East crisis increasing the probability of a recession, gas prices climbing, and inflation stinging, is this the time to add a tax burden? Albuquerque has endured a stagnant economy for years; raising the GRT to an extreme level may well add to the city's woes rather than alleviate them.

The Council meeting today starts at 5 p.m. and will be aired on YouTube. 

ON THE AIR 

It seems everyone in La Politica ends up on the Richard Eeds Santa Fe talk show on KTRC--including yours truly. 

In our latest appearance we bantered with the longtime host about the key issues currently on the table--the Guv's race, oil prices, Santa Fe's never-ending obelisk argument and more. Listen here. 

This the Home of New Mexico Politics.  

E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com)

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Candidates lined up to file for all 70 state House seats this week amid continued wreckage for Republicans in special elections around the nation, 

Those national headwinds. say our analysts, rule out any serious chance this year of Republicans altering the Democrats overwhelming House majority of 44-26. Rather, they believe the question is whether the house Democratic caucus, now the center of power at the Roundhouse, will tilt even more progressive after the election or be dotted with a few additional conservative Demcorats who could alter the tone--if only slightly.

That is a meager diet for political junkies for the June 2 primary but as we've been reporting for several years, New Mecico has gradually become a one party state, reducing the number of competitive contest in both the primary and general elections.

In any event, among the key primary rivalries to watch for any tonal shift include NE ABQ District 27 where lawyer Abby Foster is challenging moderate Dem Rep. Marian Matthews; District 40 in Mora County and vicinity where progressive pediatrician Nancy Wright is competing against Dem Rep. Joseph Sanchez; District 41 centered in Rio Arriba County where former longtime moderate Dem Rep. Debbie Rodella is staging a comeback effort and faces progressive Yolanda Jaramillo in the race to replace retiring progressive Rep. Susan Herrera and District 70, based in San Miguel County that sees former Rep. Ambrose Castellano, another conservative Dem, trying to take back the seat he lost in the '24 primary to Rep. Anita Gonzales.

There are a number of others that are on the radar that we'll cover int he weeks ahead. Complete priamry candidate list for all offices is here. 

 POST PREPRIMARY SPIN

The camp of GOP gubernatorial hopeful Duke Rodriguez is out with their post preprimary convention spin, saying of Rodriguez's poor third place showing at the Ruidoso meeting: 

The convention is one room. The primary is the entire state.

They also point to the eligibility of independents now able to vote in state primaries starting with the June primary. They believe Rodriguez as the outsider candidates has particular appeal to them. And the campaign also leans into his Hispanic heritage, saying: 

He is the only Hispanic gubernatorial candidate in the field, Republican or Democrat, and the last three governors elected in New Mexico have been Hispanic.“This is not identity politics. This is the electorate speaking,” Rodriguez said. “New Mexico tends to elect leaders who reflect the culture, the communities, and the families of this state.”   

SANCHEZ FOR TURNER 

Sanchez

Second place preprimary finisher Doug Turner has rolled out an endorsement from former Lt. Gov. John Sanchez who was the 2022 GOP Guv nominee. 

Doug is an inspiring and successful entrepreneur who built a global company right here in New Mexico. Doug brings much needed energy and momentum to this race.

Sanchez served with Gov. Martinez from 2011-19. Martinez has not endorsed a candidate in the primary. Sanchez took a pass on running afor governor this cycle. Former GOP Gov. Gary Johnson (1995-2002) has endorsed Rodriguez who was a cabinet secretary under Johnson.     

Gregg Hull is trying to build post convention momentum with his first place showing by dubbing himself the "frontrunner" in the race while seeking camapign donations.  

NOT A POWER BROKER 

Reader Jeffrey Paul, a Dem delegate to the preprimary convention, pushes back against Sam Bregman who explained his loss to Deb Haaland as the result of "power brokers" controlling the convention:

I certainly don't consider myself a party power broker. Haaland's big win wasn't about a crown, it was about a choice. A choice that 74% of the delegates (teachers, retirees, police officers, salesmen, authors, and healthcare workers) made for the candidate that they felt would bring experience, dedication, wisdom, and commitment to the Governor's office. Bregman's response was beneath him; or was it?

This the Home of New Mexico Politics. 

A real debate or a three ring circus? 

The one and only "debate" that Dem gubernatorial candidate Deb Haaland has agreed to participate in with opponent Sam Bregman is in fact not a debate but one of the oddest set-ups for a candidate face-off ever seen in these enchanted parts.

The event, scheduled for May 2 in ABQ, features three rounds that have hardly any similarity to what most voters expect from a debate--an intense question and answer session where the contenders fire off responses and rebut the answers of their opponents with journalists serving as the arbiters.

In this "debate" sponsored by the progressive group Dukes Up, that traditional and time-tested playbook is thrown out the window in favor of a forum featuring three separate rounds which could easily turn into a three ring circus. 

They are actually calling the event "Debate Games" so the circus analogy may not be far off:   

Styled as the “Governor Debate Games,” the event will feature elements of debate and policy-focused competition, divided into three rounds. 

Round One: Student Team Competition. The first round will pair each candidate with one of three small groups of high school students. Leading up to the event, the candidates will be encouraged to communicate their policy positions to their team of students. At the event, the candidate’s student team will be asked a series of multiple choice questions about their candidate’s policy positions. The team that correctly picks their candidate’s answer will score a point. The winning team will bring a trophy back to their school. 

Our take: Are we having a debate to inform voters who can actually vote or pick a high school class president? And where are Haaland and Bregman in this bizarre celebration of teen spirit? On the playground? 

Bregman and Haaland

Round Two: Questions from Participating Organizations. Round Two will be more like a traditional candidate forum, with open questions asked to each candidate, who provide a time-limited response. The questions will be authored by such groups as. . .the ACLU of NM, the New Mexico Immigrant Law Center, and the NM Center for Biological Diversity, with many more invitations to be made. There will be a “game” component to this round as well. Judges in the live audience will decide whether each candidate answered (rather than evaded) each question. Score will be kept. 

Our take: What a round! This is sure to add spark by focusing on rigid ideological queries favored by interest groups. This sounds more like a litmus test than an authentic attempt to solicit the views of the candidates. What happened to old fashioned journalism? And who are the judges? Members in good standing of a Kangaroo Court? 

Round Three: Candidate Questions. Each candidate will ask their opponent one question of their own choosing. 

Our take: Be still my heart! We actually get a debate--of one single question. 

The only improvement to be made to this peculiar spectacle is to have the cheerleaders from the winning high school in round one entertain at half-time. Better yet, send in the clowns. 

THE BOTTOM LINES 

In a first draft Tuesday we had the Dem preprimary convention taking place at Ruidoso. It was held at the Inn of the Mountain Gods in Mescalero. The GOP preprimary was held at Ruidoso.

This the Home of New Mexico Politics. 

Haaland

Deb Haaland easily overpowered Sam Bregman at the Democratic party preprimary convention at the Inn of the Mountain Gods this weekend, besting the BernCo District Attorney by winning the votes of 733 delegates for 73.52 percent of the vote. Bregman managed only 264 votes or 26.48 percent. The lopsided, decisive victory cemented Haaland's status as the clear front-runner in the race for the '26 Democratic gubernatorial nomination that will be decided at the June 2 primary election.

Complete preprimary results here.  

The result was not unexpected but the landslide margin was important for Haaland whose candidacy got off to an uneven start with lots of movement, but little substance and some internal strife. She has since steadied the ship but Bregman has rocked the boat with his repeated challenges for her to debate him. There also has been a whisper campaign against her--with the help of Republicans--that claims she does not have the smarts for the state's top job.

The preprimary win gives Haaland, the former Sec. of Interior under President Biden, the chance to head back on the trail with some air beneath her wings. Her campaign manager declared:

Her performance is a testament to the strong, winning campaign Deb continues to build. Our campaign has the winning message, the strongest and most experienced candidate, the best team, and the momentum to deliver a decisive victory in June and again in November.

Bregman's performance will be seen by party pros as nearly a death rattle and he will have much work to do to prevent that perception from locking in during the final weeks of the campaign. Following release of the preprimary results late Monday, he went to work:

The people of New Mexico, not a room full of party power brokers, will decide who leads this state. What we’re seeing across New Mexico is a campaign bringing in new voters, new voices, and people who know the old political playbook is leaving too many families behind. We checked the convention box. Now we’re taking our message directly to voters across the state. 

Bregman

While it's true that the preprimary does not signal an automatic primary, over the many years we have covered them we find that the Dem preprimary conventions are more reflective of the party as a whole while the Republican preprimary meets are less so.

Haaland's internal polling is obviously holding up well or she might not be so dismissive of Bregman's calls to debate her. (There is a quasi-debate/forum scheduled for the candidates May 2. Both will be there.) And she has plenty of money--if deployed wisely--to considerably outspend Bregman.  

Bregman came into the convention with a large TV buy behind him in which he attacked ICE and promised to prosecute any ICE agents who break state law. He has also rolled out an in-depth campaign  platform and been traveling the state extensively. But none of it stuck with the progressive Dems--who are the nominating wing of  the party--and whose love affair with fellow progressive Haaland has been long and ardous. That she would be the first Native American woman Governor sends them swooning.

For Bregman, an old pro with some old pros by his side, it is time to explore new paths. For Haaland the directive is to trod the straight and narrow road that is keeping her with a handsome lead. 

SOS RACE

The Dem nomination for Secretary of State is still up for grabs after the preprimary but Santa Fe County Clerk Katharine Clark has to be breathing easier after her 46%-36% win over Dona Ana County Clerk Amanda López Askin and third place finisher Sonya Smith who received 18 percent and will have to get more petition signatures to be on the primary ballot. 

This is a tight race between two ambitious, capable and politically astute women. The preprimary signals the edge that Clark may have in ABQ and Santa Fe where she has media exposure, but López Askin has that Las Cruces base and the Hispanic heritage that is so often a vote-getter in statewide contests.

Rather than giving us a front-runner for the SOS nomination, the preprimary affirmed that this race appears destined to go down to the wire. 

LT. GOV. CONTEST 

Speaking of SOS, the current one, Maggie Toulouse Oliver, is termed out and seeking the Dem nomination for lieutenant governor as is ABQ state Sen. Harold Pope. MTO had a solid 58 to 42 percent preprimary win over Pope but did not quite put him away. She will need a healthy media spend to do the job. 

Pope would be the state's first Black lt. governor. That and his legislative experience has made him plenty of fans in the party. 

There is also the issue of an all-female ticket. If Haaland and MTO were paired, they would be the first. In today's era this may not matter greatly but concern about having a gender balanced ticket may have helped Pope. MTO remains the heavy favorite in the June primary but Pope lives to fight another day. 

LAND OFFICE RESULTS 

Juan Sanchez

Sen. Martin Heinrich has been trying to take over the state land office for. . .well. . . a very long time. He went all-in for a Dem candidate friend in '16 but came up empty. This time he's backing his former political aide Juan Sanchez who is off to a decent start. 

Sanchez, of central NM, scored 56 percent of the delegates, crushing fellow rancher Jonas Moya of the eastside who did not make it on the ballot with his 7 percent. And there's more. . .  

Santa Fe area state Rep. Matthew McQueen, a darling of the environmental left, came with 37 percent and is not going away. Ironically, much of McQueen's base voters are the same as Heinrich's, an enviro senator if there ever was one. 

McQueen is a well-regarded state rep. Sanchez is a sharp politico with a possible ethnic advantage working for him if Jonas does not get on the ballot by getting more signatures.

If this stays a two way race keep a lookout for the fund-raising numbers. They could tell the tale.  

CONGRESS

The state's three Democratic US House members all ran unopposed for a ballot position--District one Rep. Melanie Stansbury; District 2 Rep. Gabe Vasquez and District 3 Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez. The Stansbury and TLF districts are ranked Safe Democratic here and the Vasquez district is Lean Democratic.

US Sen. Ben Ray Lujan, seeking a second term, was challenged by socialist Dem Matt Dodson. Lujan brushed it off by getting 86 percent support. Lujan is unopposed in the general election but the GOP is trying to field a write-in candidate.

This the Home of New Mexico Politics.