Deb Haaland

New Mexican politics are not about to make a dramatic shift to the left if Democrat Deb Haaland wins the governorship November 3. The progressive wing of her party may be ignoring what she says—as they often have with Gov. Lujan Grisham—but facts speak for themselves. Haaland is planting herself in the calm center, not with her energized left twin. Here is a look:

Take Project Jupiter, the giant data center being built by Oracle in Doña Ana County that is now said to be 26 percent completed. The project has become the centerpiece of the state environmental movement with demands it be shutdown, or at least a firm moratorium on future builds. Yet Haaland will not move to shut it down. She has called for "guardrails" for Jupiter and other data centers. Today she is expected to announce support for a moratorium on future centers, which would have to be approved by the legislature. Haaland threw a bolt of lightning at her left wing when she accepted a $12,400 donation from Jupiter developer Oracle—signaling that the "corporate Democrat" nickname affixed to MLG is now moving to Haaland.

(Candle editor Bruce Wetherbee reports that Jupiter developers gave over $270,000 in campaign donations to New Mexico politicians since mid 2025 with most coming this year. House Speaker Javier Martinez and committees affiliated with him received $67,200. Senate Majority leader Peter Wirth received $10,000.)

That passivity extends directly to energy policy, where her acceptance of oil money marks yet another red flag being shooed away by the hard Democratic left. They were unrelenting in their criticism of Haaland's primary opponent Sam Bregman when he traveled to Texas to collect oil money. But campaign reports show Haaland was taking a $6,200 contribution from Exxon during that primary, and she collected another $6,200 in the most recent finance report released Monday.

Beyond Exxon, the corporate oil checks keep rolling in—including $12,400 from ConocoPhillips, a company that benefited in a huge way from a decision made by then-Sec. of Interior Haaland to open up Alaska's Willow Basin on the North Slope to oil drilling. Chevron also shows up on Haaland's list with a $12,400 donation. So where are the climate change activists, the hawks on methane release? Very silent as Haaland slips to the center on the state's most dominant industry—just as current Governor MLG has repeatedly done.

NO RADICAL OVERHAULS

The centrist drift is equally apparent in the state's battle over public utilities. Private equity firm Blackstone is plowing ahead with its proposed merger with PNM, the state's major electric utility. Blackstone, also with a target on their back placed by powerful environmental advocates, has offered friendly consumer terms for the takeover. While progressives have called for the state to use its billions in reserve to buy and run PNM, that radical takeover is getting nowhere with Haaland. She has framed her stance around traditional consumer protections—making utilities "more accountable to ratepayers" and "more affordable for consumers"—rather than state ownership.

A similar pragmatism appears to be shaping her approach to healthcare. Alongside House Speaker Martinez, Haaland's vision for state health coverage is now expected to focus on a public option that consumers could choose on the state health exchange alongside private options. Medicaid will remain the primary socialized healthcare delivery system, rather than creating a sweeping new state program to cover the currently uninsured.

THE SILENT LEFT 

So why the quiet compliance from the Democratic left? Their docility isn't accidental—it's calculated. For progressives, Republican Gregg Hull represents an unacceptable alternative, stripping the left of any real electoral leverage. At the same time, Haaland is a national barrier-breaker giving her a status that centrist Democrats rarely enjoy--attacking her feels like undercutting one of their own. Activists have concluded that a centrist Haaland at least guarantees access to the Fourth Floor, whereas a public fight only risks handing the executive branch to the GOP.

So much for the Deb Haaland of 2018 who, upon winning election to her ABQ House seat, became part of the radical "Squad" of Dem House members who lived and died for the Green New Deal and even signed a No Fossil Fuel campaign money pledge. Today's Deb Haaland is much more in the mold of the old centrism of Bill Richardson and the current corporate-friendly MLG. 

Haaland's primary objective appears to be guaranteeing the state's robust social safety net against Washington intrusion and expanding it as more voters confront a much higher cost of living.

In a Haaland governorship, there would be much talk of climate change, protecting public lands, "accountability," "affordability," and the dangers of Trump. What there would not be is an embrace of progressive economic policies that fundamentally confront the private sector. That calculation can't be lost on the wide-awake Left, but they can and are choosing to ignore it while Repbublicans are welcoming it.

DEBATE AVOIDANCE PLAN

Veteran journalist Peter St. Cyr comes with the cartoon of the moment, spotlighting the Haaland campaign's failure to schedule a TV debate with Republican Gregg Hull. Several readers joined in with their own skepticism. From Tony Schaefer: 

Joe, Deb Haaland risks a lot by refusing to debate Gregg Hull. She has a commanding lead in money, driven by national big Democrat donors and interests. Democrats control New Mexico politics and governance. By depriving voters of a fair hearing in an open debate she portrays the very oligarchy Bernie Sanders and AOC have railed against nationally. Is that what her campaign is really all about?  Deb routinely sends  her Lt. Governor running mate to forums instead of appearing herself. Is the real Deb the person we watched flounder on national TV at those Congressional hearings or not? Just asking.

An anonymous reader writes:

Hello Joe. Deb says, "Debates, what debates? We don’t need no stinking debates." She would not debate Sam Bregman, she won’t debate Gregg. I am more than happy not to hear Deb mumble um, um after every question. This is the best the Democrats have to offer? I hope we don’t have to resort to flying our NM flag upside down although it would still look the same. We need help, Joe, and I don’t think Deb is the answer. No last name just John. I already have enough haters barking at me. 

This is the Home of New Mexico politics.  

Haaland and Hull

How can the Republican candidate for governor run an effective campaign if the industry most critical to their fundraising is not going all-in? That’s the dilemma confronting GOP standard-bearer Gregg Hull.

In his latest financial report covering June 28 through Sept. 7, we count about $300,000 in direct and indirect contributions from the state oil and gas industry that continues generating fortunes in what is one of the longest oil booms in state history. That represents about 30 percent of the $943,000 Hull reported bringing in during the period but is still far short of what he requires from them (and others) to run an effective campaign for the final six weeks. 

Hull's energy-related donations from the booming Permian Basin in SE NM include:

• George & Nancy Brantley (Carlsbad): $24,800

• John Yates (Artesia): $10,000

• Strata Production Company (Roswell): $6,200

• Murphy Petroleum Corp (Roswell): $6,200 

Hull is down to $509,000 in cash compared to Dem nominee Deb Haaland’s $3.4 million—the same amount she raised during the reporting period. Her grand total for the campaign is $17.3 million and she has spent $13.9 million.

HAALAND'S HAUL 

Haaland has spent massive amounts to raise that $17 million—anywhere from 30 to 50 percent of her total take, according to consultants. The Pinon Post breaks it down.

In 2018 while running for Congress Haaland signed a No Fossil Fuel Pledge but then left Congress to join the president's cabinet. In this financial report she lists a $12,400 contribution from Conoco Phillips and also $12,400 from Chevron. She received $6,200 from Exxon for the primary and $6,200 in the general. 

As Sec. of Interior enviro groups pleaded with her to stop the Alaska Willow project allowing oil drilling on the state's North Slope but under pressure from President Biden she signed off on the drilling in 2023 so Conoco-Phillips could produce the large oil reserves there. 

Haaland also received $12,400 from Oracle, developers of the controversial Project Jupiter, a massive data center in southern New Mexico. 

HULL AND LEA 

Haaland's $3.4 million in cash with less than two months before the election may not loom as large had oil and gas not tightened up on Hull. The former mayor of Rio Rancho may have earned their scorn by running against their preferred candidate, ABQ PR executive Doug Turner, who was soundly defeated by Hull in the June primary. 

Longtime GOP fundraiser Andrea Goff of Lea County headed Turner's effort. She has close ties to former southern GOP US Rep. Steve Pearce, who made an oil fortune in the county and now leads the BLM in DC under Trump. During the primary, Turner attended a candidate fundraiser at Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate; Hull did not. Lea County oil money appeared to come with about $37,000 in the latest report--on the light end. 

It's not only the oil crowd apparently curtailing their giving, it's Hull's inability to raise money from other sectors as well. Hull has raised only $1.9 million so far. In '22 the GOP nominee raised $10 million for the primary and general elections. 

Hull may never have had a fighting chance in a blue state that for years has snubbed Republicans, but if the party was to begin a meaningful rebuilding phase, we should have seen it in Hull's campaign reports. 

An outside PAC has been playing but in their first outing, they misspelled the candidate's name.

To his credit, Hull polled at 43 percent to Haaland's 49 in the ABQ Journal late August survey. Some Anti-Haaland sentiment has coalesced around him, but growing from that base with meager funding would be like climbing Wheeler Peak in an hour.

CAMPAIGN ANALYSIS 

Hull's failure to surprise to the upside means we'll hear more soothing, platitudinous bromides from Haaland, who is America's current beneficiary of dialing for identity dollars. The $17 million raised comes from thousands of mostly out-of-state donors infatuated with crowning her the nation's first female Native American governor.

Ironically, the wealthiest New Mexico campaign ever is premised on making the omnipresent welfare state more relatable to voters. By anchoring TV spots like "Family" and "Defend" to her personal struggles Haaland hopes to persuade suburban swing voters around ABQ concerned with the cost of living while mobilizing low-income families statewide. 

What that strategy does not do is lay down markers for transformational change in a state that has become far too comfortable in lagging others in every imaginable social metric. But Haaland isn't about to give voters something they aren't asking for. She'll leave that to Gregg Hull.

PETE'S ELEPHANT

Buttigieg in Las Cruces

The elephant in the room at that Las Cruces rally that drew around 600 to hear possible '28 presidential hopeful Pete Buttigieg tout Deb Haaland and US Rep. Gabe Vasquez stood there silently. But if it could speak, it would ask: "Is the US ready to elect an openly gay man president?"

For some, it's no elephant at all. Cyndi Hiber of Indivisible Las Cruces said: “[Buttigieg] is down to earth... I like the fact that he is a family man. He seems very capable and intelligent.”

That could very well be the attitude among Democratic primary voters, but the culture wars that would ensue in red and purple states cannot be ignored. The first Dem primary state in '28 is South Carolina, and New Mexico follows about a month later, making it a must-stop on the White House wannabe circuit.

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Vasquez and Cunningham

What’s with Greg Cunningham’s obsession with border security and crime? Doesn’t he know those issues have fallen down the list of voter concerns as an economic tidal wave heads towards the state in the form of inflation? Won’t the economy (and Trump) be the deciding factors in his Second Congressional District race with Dem US Rep. Gabe Vasquez? In Dona Ana and Bernalillo counties where over half the vote will come from it’s still the economy that beats out the crime beat.

Somehow Cunningham has to find a way to erode the 46 to 43 early polling lead held by Vasquez. Crime is actually the surface issue. Underneath is the Republican effort to again point out that Vasquez is in general a weak character who has waffled on crime and is actually a liberal trying to pose as a moderate. 

That remains a soft spot for Vasquez who is seeking his third term after winning the seat 52 to 48 over Yvette Herrell in ‘24. By now he could have been expected to have nailed down the Democratic leaning district and not be subjected to a full-throated Republican challenge. But it is true that Vasquez is trying to play the role of a reformed liberal. It is that tinge of inauthenticity that has kept the seat in play for the GOP—at least on paper. Until Vasquez finds a way to shed it, he may have to put up with close contests.

BULLSHIT!

What’s a good Catholic boy like Ben Ray Lujan doing using the term “bullshit“ in his first campaign TV ad for his ‘26 campaign? Sure it’s an attention getting device. But Sen. Lujan is one candidate who doesn’t need much attention. His Republican MAGA opponent Larry Marker struggled to make the general election ballot, running as a write-in candidate in the June primary and who now has no significant party financial backing. Maybe Ben Ray should be offering up a Novena of thanks  for such a weak opponent and save the slang for the Senate gym. 

COMING UP SHORT

What’s the deal with Gregg Hull debuting his media campaign with a 15 second TV spot? We know Hull, the Republican governor nominee, is financially challenged but no spot is almost as good as the rapid fire 15 seconds in which he recounts his service as Rio Rancho Mayor. By the time he gets done saying Rio Rancho the spot is over. It seems Gregg needs more time on the phones raising money as well as more time on his TV ads. 

THREE AMIGOS

Then there were three. What’s up with state Reps. Andrea Romero and Joshua Hernandez and now Senate Finance Committee chairman George Munoz? They all fell off the ethics ladder almost at the same time. And that’s just in time for voters to think about paying lawmakers a salary for the first time in state history, which will be presented to them on the November ballot. The lawmakers’ bad acting was accompanied by bad timing. The question is will there be more before the election?

THE BIG STALL

What’s with the big stall by Deb Haaland when it comes to doing a TV debate with Gregg Hull? KOB-TV must have jumped the gun when they said that such a debate was already scheduled for October 8 but then the Haaland campaign said that’s not the case. Haaland has already rejected face-to-face debates with Hull on KOAT and KRQE so KOB is the only one left. Best to get on with it or does the cat really have Deb’s tongue?

This is the Home of New Mexico politics. 

Make it three in a row. That appears to be the case with the five statewide executive offices on the November ballot which went to Democrats in 2018 and 2022 and are set for a three-peat.

That expectation is grounded in ABQ Journal polling showing races for Attorney General, Secretary of State, Land Commissioner, State Auditor and State Treasurer as easy lay ups for the Democrats who hold 40 percent of the registered voters compared to the GOP's 31 percent. Party identification is vital. Down-ballot races see many voters revert to party loyalty when unfamiliar with individual candidates. While this edge has grown more pronounced this century, it has been a fixture since New Mexico turned away from the GOP in the Great Depression of the 30's.  

In the races for Auditor and Treasurer this year, Republicans are resorting to write-in candidates--hardly a sign of a party ready to compete or rebuild. 

LAND COMMISSIONER 

The Land Commissioner race remains a sore spot for Republicans with party insiders fretting that the position was their best hope to break the Dems executive office monopoly. 

Chaves County Commissioner Michael Perry has a strong resume but Trump's unpopularity and the Dems fund-raising advantage has made the race seem out of reach. The August 21-28 Journal poll of likely voters had former Sen. Heinrich political aide Juan Sanchez III at 48 percent and Perry at only 35.

It was Aubrey Dunn, Jr. who was one of the two last Republicans to prevail in the executive offices by capturing the land commission post in 2014. (The other was Dianna Duran for Sec. of State.) 

New Mexicans have welcomed Republican ranchers like Dunn and before him Pat Lyons. Their backgrounds created an emotional connection with voters over the state's prized natural environment. 

Perry is a former assistant land commissioner with a degree in wildlife management. While not a rancher he told me he is sensitive to the office's environmental responsibilities. His platform emphasizes wildfire prevention and water management.

Sanchez lays claim to a generations-long ranching heritage in Valencia and Cibola counties, donning a traditional cowboy hat in media ads to reinforce that link. During the June primary, an oil-industry-backed PAC—an enemy of the Democratic left—bought significant TV advertising for Sanchez. While his progressive opponents attacked the involvement, Sanchez noted his individual campaign did not solicit oil and gas contributions but would accept them, hinting at a pragmatist, run-up-the-middle approach if elected.

ATTORNEY GENERAL  

No Republican has won the Attorney General seat since 1986, and Las Cruces nominee Sam Kane is unlikely to disrupt that streak. Incumbent Raul Torrez leads Kane 51% to 34% in Journal polling—the largest margin on the executive ticket—and is set to become the fifth consecutive Democratic AG to complete two terms.

Like his predecessors, Torrez has sought high-visiblity cases. However, his lawsuit against Meta regarding child endangerment has broken new ground, significantly boosting his profile. Pollster Brian Sanderoff said he expects the AG to lead the Dem ticket. Kane counters that Torrez prioritizes national litigation against tech giants and federal agencies for public relations at the expense of core, state-level enforcement priorities.

SECRETARY OF STATE  

Maggie Toulouse Oliver is wrapping up a 10-year tenure, the longest in state history, which began in 2016 when she filled the final two years of the term vacated by Republican Dianna Duran. Her tenure was highlighted by the 2023 New Mexico Voting Rights Act and strong pushback against federal election interference. However, critics note her administration fell behind on web infrastructure and modernization.
Doña Ana County Clerk Amanda Lopez Askin leads Republican Ramona Goolsby 47% to 35% to succeed her. Askin pledges closer coordination with county clerks and improved data accessibility. Goolsby echoes claims regarding election integrity, despite New Mexico receiving national praise for running secure, sound elections.

STATE AUDITOR 

Political veteran Joseph Maestas holds a 47% to 34% lead over Republican Joshua Lawrence. No Republican has won the office since 1966, though Republican Wayne Johnson was appointed to fill out Tim Keller’s term when Keller was elected Albuquerque mayor. But Lawrence is running as a write-in candidate whose name will not appear on the ballot. Getting near 34 percent of the vote would be a minor miracle.

Maestas, a former mayor of Española, points to tighter internal controls following statewide financial audits and high-profile special investigations into CYFD, Western New Mexico University and executive travel. Lawrence and critics argue local governments still face severe audit backlogs, which Maestas attributes to a widespread CPA shortage. He says the most significant audit of his term was of Dona Ana county which he said uncovered widespread financial "dysfunction."

STATE TREASURER 

Incumbent Laura Montoya leads Republican James Ellison 47% to 35%. Ellison is also a write-in candidate with little chance of competing. Montoya is known for her feisty style. She drew GOP ire by opposing a high-profile pay hike for Tesla CEO Elon Musk and has raised eyebrows by pushing social achievement goals for state permanent fund investments as a member of the State Investment Council. She took a hit when the State Ethics Commission found she violated campaign laws by accepting an improperly disclosed $10,000 donation in 2022. Montoya says her achievements include high school financial literacy programs, "Baby Bonds" legislation for newborns, and university partnerships to recruit future public accountants. 

ONE PARTY RULE

One-party dominance has not led to blatant public corruption in recent years, but that wasn't always the case. Twenty years ago, back-to-back state treasurers were convicted in pay-to-play schemes and sent to federal prison. In 2005, the Richardson administration and the legislature enacted reforms that stripped political appointees of direct investment authority and established competitive bidding to eliminate the old "corruption stew." While these executive offices carry prestige and serve as launching pads for higher political office, the pay remains modest: The Attorney General makes $154,714; Commissioner of Public Lands $149,714; State Treasurer $144,714; State Auditor $144,714; Secretary of State $144,714. 

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Rep. Andrea Romero

 Alright. Let's dive in to all the political news from New America. . . er. . . New Mexico. 

Talk about crashing and burning. State Rep. Andrea Romero has done both in grand style, leaving a promising political career in ruins.  

It is a story no one relishes—concerning a Santa Fe rising star who showed great promise. After a speed bump winning her first term in District 46 in 2018, Romero, steadied herself and became a leading light for progressive Democratic women in the Roundhouse. But that was then. 

Romero, a UNM Law grad with a Stanford political science degree, turned pugnacious when Attorney General Raul Torrez called her out for taking an unlawful part-time job with First Judicial District Attorney Mary Carmack-Altwies. State law prohibits legislators from working for the state government they fund and oversee. Carmack-Altwies and Romero both pushed back, but the AG stood firm. Under immense pressure, Romero—chair of the legislative Truth Commission investigating Jeffrey Epstein’s Zorro Ranch—resigned her DA job. 

After claiming Torrez gave her conflicting advice, Romero asserted his opinion was "an attempt to disrupt" the Commission's work. She neglected to mention Torrez had reopened a criminal probe into Epstein and sued the federal government over withheld files. 

Torrez, a fellow Dem, was still accused by some of being weak-kneed when he did not seek sterner penalties against Romero for her flaunting of the law. Republicans cried foul and demanded Romero resign not only as chair of the Epstein panel but also from her House seat. 

Already wounded in one foot from her illegal deal with Carmack-Altwies, Romero then aimed her gun at the other by using a PR firm hired to represent the Truth Commission to respond to her legal woes even though they had nothing to do with the Commission's work. 

REPUBLICANS STRIKE

Sen. Sharer

As the GOP filed an ethics complaint against her, Romero argued her use of the PR firm was an innocent mistake. Senate Minority Leader Bill Sharer knew he had low-lying fruit and bit hard: 

Representative Romero was already caught taking a state job the Attorney General says was unlawful for a sitting legislator to hold. Now the evidence suggests she used taxpayer dollars appropriated for a Truth Commission investigating one of the most notorious predators in modern history to instead pay a contractor to clean up her own political mess. That is not what that money was for, and it is exactly the kind of self-dealing New Mexico’s Governmental Conduct Act was written to stop.

The Chicago PR firm promptly ended their relationship with the Commission. 

Even before this job dispute, the Truth Commission had begun contributing to Romero's downfall. Its initial report consisted largely of public newspaper clippings, reinforcing claims it was a showhorse rather than a workhorse.

ROMERO'S PAST MISSTTEPS

This job controversy conjures memories of 2018, when Romero faced scrutiny for mismanaging public funds as Regional Director of LANL Communities--including a infamous $28 shot of WhistlePig Rye on the taxpayer dime. Now, this second ethics scandal could doom her chances for higher office. Though unopposed for re-election, she will return to the Roundhouse badly wounded.

Only months ago, Romero was in the limelight: chairing the Truth Commission, attending the State of the Union, and passing legislation banning ICE detention centers. Those glory days are forgotten as she tussles over an ethics lapse she refused to admit. Pride goeth before the fall and for Romero it has been a free fall.

MORE DEM HOUSE TROUBLES 

Heather Ellison

Making matters worse for House Speaker Javier Martinez, Romero's slide coincided with San Juan County Rep. Joseph Hernandez getting drunk on a legislative trip to Chicago and wandering hotel hallways naked. Forced to withdraw from his race after the legal deadline, the Supreme Court ruled Democrats could not replace him—handing Republican Heather Ellison an unexpected gift in District 4. A similar late withdrawal in District 23 left Republican Alan Martinez unopposed. 

Ellison, 71, is a Navajo early childhood educator.  

PAY THEM? 

The outbreak of disturbing behavior by House Democrats could impact--and should--the proposed constitutional amendment on the November ballot to award state legislators a full-time salary of up to $68,000. This has been rejected repeatedly since statehood in 1912. 

This time the pay hike plan starts off with 39 percent in favor, 21 percent opposed and a large 40 percent undecided or wanting more information. The Journal poll was conducted Aug. 21-28. Proponents have already started media in favor. Opponents will have to follow in order to sway those undecided especially independent voters. 

Not that any of the 112 legislators are starving. They receive over $200 in expense money each day they meet in session and also receive that sum when attending one of the many interim committee meetings. These payments would continue even if they received salaries,

In addition the lawmakers now have district offices with a full-time paid staffer. 

Then there's their freshly liberalized pensions providing a comfortable cushion.

Then there are the yearly lobbyist expenditures topping $1 million with a substantial portion devoted to free meals and hosting social events for lawmakers. 

THE BOTTOM LINES

Joe Monahan

The Domenici conference is is back and starts today at the Las Cruces Convention Center. The annual conference, named for the late NM GOP US Sen. Pete Domenici, went into hibernation for eight years This year former GOP US Rep. Heather Wilson will be a speaker as will Dem NM Senator Ben Ray Lujan. The southern congressional candidates--Rep. Vasquez and Greg Cunningham are also scheduled. The midterms will be discussed with national pundits Paul Begala and Charlie Black. More info here. 

By the way, Pete decided before his death that NMSU would receive his congressional papers although he was an ABQ native and received his undergrad degree from UNM. It was a rare Aggie victory over the Lobos. 

We have analysis of the upcoming election with Santa Fe radio host Richard Eeds of KTRC. You can tune in here. 

We'll step on the gas and add some more weekday posts as the '26 campaign heats up. Stay in the loop by subscribing to the blog here or from the subscription box at the top of the page. 

Thanks for tuning in. 

Reporting from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan.

This is the Home of New Mexico politics. 

Labels: Attorney General Torrez, District Attorney Carmack-Altwies, Rep. Alan Martinez, Rep. Andrea Romero, Rep. Heather Ellison

Hull and Haaland

The first major public poll of the '26 gubernatorial chase seems to rule out a blow-out win by Democrat Deb Haaland but nudges only slightly, if at all, that big boulder that lies on the path to victory for Republican Gregg Hull. 

The ABQ Journal survey conducted August 21-28 among 516 likely voters with a margin of error of 4.3 percent shows Haaland with 49 percent Hull at 43 and 8 percent undecided. 

The poll was perceived as a blow to Haaland because expectations have been running higher than that 49 percent--whcih is one point shy of the magic 50 percent.  Her superior fund-raising, higher name ID and the Democratic lean of the state were the reasons. But the poll is in line with past ones that pointed to an eventual Democratic win. That includes 2018 when MLG was ahead of Republican Steve Pearce 50 to 43 in an early September survey, nearly identical to this year's first Journal poll. She won that race 57 to 43 percent.

In 2022 in the late August Journal survey MLG sported a 47 to 40 margin over Republican Mark Ronchetti in the late August Journal poll. She went on to win by 6.4 percent. 

The last time a Republican won the gubernatorial contest was in 2010 and everyone saw it coming as Diane Denish trailed Susana Martinez 45 to 39 in the Journal's late August survey and went on to beat Democrat Denish 53 to 47 percent. 

While Haaland clearly lost the expectations game and gave Hull something to shoot for, the national handicappers who rate the race "solid Democratic" are unlikely to change their ratings based on the survey. If they did, it could boost the cash coffers of the former three term Rio Rancho mayor.

The poll barely registered with the bettors placing cash wagers on the outcome. On Polymarket Sunday after the poll was released Haaland had a 93 percent chance of victory to Hull's six percent.

MONAHAN'S RULE 

In the ABQ metro Haaland is beating Hull 56 to 39 percent. The populous metro has been key to the Dems long string of statewide wins--no statewide executive office (Governor, land commissioner etc.) has gone to a Republican since Susana Martinez was re-elected in 2014. The R's last statewide win was in 2016 for a state supreme court seat. Until the key ABQ metro again becomes competitive the state will stay uncompetitive. 

Still, the poll could serve to dampen any smugness that the Haaland camp has over having to fight fiercely for the Fourth Floor--to use one of her favorite adjectives. A major mishap could still put the race in play as could a poorly run effort in the final eight weeks.  

Hull's campaign remains cash-starved. Big oil Republicans have essentially boycotted him, some of them apparently miffed that their favorite for the GOP nomination, Doug Turner, was turned away by primary voters in favor of Hull. We'll see if Hull's decent polling performance reverses their lack of enthusiasm.

Haaland with her national reputation has raised a staggering $14 million. It's a record amount and as we said another reason the poll did not meet those higher expectations. 

ROOTING FOR A RACE 

The managing editor of the Republican-leaning Journal took the unusual step of publishing a front-page commentary celebrating the relative closeness of the race in their poll saying, "so much for the coronation." But Brian Sanderoff, the paper's longtime and estimable pollster, did not appear convinced that there is now a true "horse race" as the headline over the editor's commentary claimed. He opined:

It’s narrower than many people expected, including me, Despite the fact the race is closer than expected, Gregg Hull still faces an uphill battle.

CANDIDATES REACT 

(click to enlarge)

Haaland's camp, which all summer has been trying to motivate donors by claiming she was six points behind in some polling, did not have anything to say about the Journal's survey that shows her actually six points ahead. She could, of course, use that characterization of the contest as a "horse race" to excite donors as well as Democratic voters she needs to go to the polls. 

For his part Hull did all he could to gin up enthusiasm over the narrower than expected lead Haaland commands, exclaiming that "they said it would be a blowout. It isn't." He also claimed he was now within "striking distance" of Haaland.

But Hull's pleas for money following the poll revealed that time is growing short to raise the millions he will need to compete in the final two months and this poll must mark a pivot from his dismal performance in that regard:

Eight percent of New Mexico voters have not made up their minds yet, and. . . my opponent will use her advantage to flood the airwaves from now until November 3. She will spend millions telling New Mexicans who I am before I get the chance to tell them myself. I am not going to let that happen. But I need to be on television, on the radio, and in mailboxes in every corner of this state at the same time she is, and that takes resources we have to raise right now. 

Haaland will definitely be on all forms of broadcast media and soon. And if there is only a minimal Hull presence she could quickly pull ahead in the polling to come.  

ANGLO ANGLE 

A Dem consultant pointed out that the poll shows Anglo voters favoring Hull 48 to 46 percent, helping to keep her lead over Hull in the mid-single digits. He theorized:

The Dems taking on a significant Socialist wing may be helping a Blue Dog mentality taking hold among some Anglo men in particular--and they have been early deciders for Hull. That got him quickly to that base conservative vote of 43 percent. These were votes against her not for him. He remains largely unknown.

WHAT HULL MUST DO

Republican analyst Jamie Estrada does some heavy lifting on exactly where the Republican nominee stands in the aftermath of the Journal survey. He begins with the last time a Republican was elected governor:

Eighteen months before the 2010 election the Republican primary candidates made their campaigns about tying Lt. Gov Diane Denish to Gov. Bill Richardson’s corruption. Over time they persuaded enough voters. Unfortunately for Republicans, MLG’s administration is not the same kind of target Richardson’s was. There are, however, examples of grave incompetence, especially CYFD, and during Deb Haaland’s term as Interior Secretary she raised real questions about her competence. Those concerns are showing up again in her interviews and candidate forums. Hull has not been making the case against the Democrats' incompetence or corruption. In fact, he has made it clear that he will not run a negative campaign. So, will this poll finally convince Republican donors to get off the sidelines? It's doubtful given his stubborn refusal to draw sharper contrasts. Being a statesman and aggressively pointing out Haaland’s weaknesses and terrible policies are not mutually exclusive. What’s worse is that Haaland might raise millions off this poll, arguing that she needs more money to get over the finish line. 

DEM GATOR TAKE 

A Senior Alligator of the Dem variety found the poll interesting but was nonplussed by the closer than expected margin: 

That poll seems reflective of a pretty low profile race--perhaps a bit of oversampling of independents and some big assumptions on name ID. Undecideds are low. I can’t believe that Gregg Hull is as well-known as this poll portrays. He has had zero media and few voters know that he was mayor of Rio Rancho. I think when Haaland gets on the air with a heavy presence, Democrats will come home and the anti-Trump energy will overwhelm Hull. But Sanderoff's poll pleases the Journal and their conservative readers. Maybe they believe the Democrats are lazy and will stay home. 

That Gator pointing out that Haaland has stayed dark on paid broadcast media over the summer is notable but underdog and under-financed Hull was also dark and unable to force her into the daylight. 

HIDING THE BALL 

Hide the ball continues to be Haaland's strategy and she is avoiding joint appearances with Hull. Will that change in light of her losing the polling expectations game? State Republicans are starting the drumbeat:

Some of the most influential organizations in our state have provided candidates an opportunity to answer questions and explain their vision. Gregg Hull has shown up. Deb Haaland has not. At the Association of Counties annual conference, Hull was there and Haaland was a no-show. At the Alliance of Health Councils forum, Hull showed up to discuss healthcare with community and tribal health leaders--Haaland did not. (Dem. Lt. Gov. candidate) Stephanie Garcia Richard appeared instead. Then, at last week’s Municipal League Annual Conference in Las Cruces, Hull again appeared  while Garcia Richard substituted for Haaland . . .Deb Haaland wants New Mexicans to elect her as our state’s next governor, but Stephanie Garcia Richard is becoming the one sent into the room to answer questions. The governor will be responsible for a multibillion-dollar state government. . .Gregg Hull isn't asking someone else to explain what he believes. He isn't avoiding organizations whose members may ask difficult questions. That should matter to New Mexico voters. 

The two candidates have made one joint appearance. That was at a meeting in mid-August of an ABQ business group. The newspaper described the session as "congenial" with neither candidate attacking the other. 

Only one TV debate is scheduled thus far. Haaland has agreed to face off with Hull on KOB in mid-October. Haaland rejected one proposed by KOAT and the Journal. 

Haaland, as the state GOP infers, is obviously trying to protect herself from committing a major gaffe by fumbling hard policy questions and giving Hull the opportunity to compare and contrast his views with hers. Pressure will and should grow on her to come out hiding if she is to avoid the nickname No Show Haaland. A wanna be Governor just like a sitting one needs to project confidence. Haaland needs to dig deeper and make that list of no shows much shorter. 

As for the polling the Journal will have another in October not far from the November 3 election which is rapidly coming into sight. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics. 

Labels: 2026 Journal poll, Deb Haaland, Gregg Hull, New Mexico governor.

Sen. Wirth and Sen. Trujillo

There will be a new power player in Santa Fe come November and their rise to prominence will have little to do with the election.  

Sen. Peter Wirth, who has served in the powerful position of Senate Majority Leader since 2017, is leaving leadership and indications are that Sen. Linda Trujillo of Santa Fe could be the new face managing the rush of vital legislation introduced in the upper chamber of the New Mexican Legislature. 

The majority Democrats hold 26 seats and the Republicans 16. Dems will chose their new majority leader at a November caucus after the general election. Sen. Bill Sharer of the Four Corners is expected to again be selected by the Republican caucus as their Minority Leader.

While Trujillo is favored there could be a contest for the prestigious job when senate Democrats meet to select all of their leadership for the '27 legislative session and beyond. ABQ Senator Linda Lopez, Las Cruces area lawmaker Bill Soules and northern Senator Pete Campos are being mentioned as possible contenders for majority leader. 

But Trujillo, who was elected to two terms in the state House from District 48 and won election last year to the Senate District 24 seat vacated by Nancy Rodriguez, appears to be the odds-on favorite. 

Said a longtime Roundhouse lobbyist of Trujillo's prospects:

Besides her House service she is a licensed attorney, was a Head Start teacher, an elected member of the Santa Fe School Board and is a former Superintendent of the State Regulation and Licensing Department. That covers a lot of bases. Her main attribute is her level-headed approach. While progressive in instinct she is able to build bridges between the factions now dominant in the Senate. 

Wirth, a trial attorney, was also a bridge builder but those bridges started to burn last year when his resistance to medical malpractice reform overwhelmed him. It was clearly time to head for the exits. He resigned from leadership but will stay in the Santa Fe senate seat he was first elected to in 2008 until 2028.

Trujillo, 67, who earned an associate degree in early childhood education, a bachelor’s degree in public administration and a law degree from Seattle University School of Law, came to New Mexico from her native Washington state in 2000. Her husband worked for the City of Santa Fe. They have five adult children.

If Trujillo is tapped for Senate Majority Leader it will keep the important role with a Santa Fe lawmaker. ABQ Sen. Mimi Stewart occupies the top leadership position of President Pro Tem. ABQ also holds the majority whip position with Sen. Michael Padilla. 

WOMEN AND POWER 

Trujillo would be the first female Majority Leader, building on the gains women have made at the capitol in recent years. There are now 45 women in the state House--a majority of the 70 seats. In the Senate they hold 16 seats or 38 percent. In total women hold 61 of the 112 seats in the legislature, making New Mexico one of only a few states with majority female governance. In addition, the state has had 16 consecutive years of women governors.

This large female presence is no longer a novelty. In fact, if Trujillo does take power expectations will be high for her to help finally harness the progressive female majority and implement badly needed changes at the troubled Children, Youth and Families Department and also pursue education reform that has stagnated and left the state the worst performing in the nation. 

In the House Trujillo was one of the creators of the Early Childhood Education Department. She also championed historically large pay raises for state teachers, bringing them up to par with neighboring states and then some. She was a sponsor of the Interstate Medical Licensure Compact Act that passed the Senate unanimously but not before it gave Wirth and the trial lawyer lobby headaches.  

TAKING THE HEAT 

Trujillo endured criticism when she abruptly resigned her House seat in 2020 just one month after winning the primary election. She cited financial hardship brought on by the pandemic during which her hours as a working attorney were shaved and her husband was furloughed from his city job. 

She said these hardships gave her no choice but to give up the seat. Today she says she is financially comfortable and receiving a government pension.

As head of the State Regulation and Licensing Department under MLG, Trujillo was responsible for building the regulatory framework for adult-use cannabis, a framework that has received mixed reviews and continues to be overhauled.

HAALAND'S HOPES  

Haaland and Hull

The next Senate Majority Leader will set the floor agenda and lead parliamentary strategy during debate. That leader will be one of the keys to success for the new governor to be elected in November, widely predicted to be Democrat Deb Haaland with Republican Gregg Hull fighting that narrative. Said one Roundhouse veteran: 

Haaland has already established a relationship with House Speaker Javier Martinez. The Senate's factionalism makes doing that there more challenging. But like Senator Wirth, Trujillo knows the ins and outs of policy and the senate which is going to be crucial for the incoming administration. There is wariness about the transition because some senators felt bullied by MLG and her relationship with the senate suffered. They don't want a repeat.

THE GOP VIEW 

Trujillo seems acceptable to Republican senators even if they have no say in who is selected. Sen. Jim Townsend of Artesia served with Trujillo when they were both in the House. He said of her when she resigned her House seat:

She is polite, nice and professional. We have not always agreed on policy and procedure but I always looked forward to working with her and I hope she has the same feelings across the aisle working with us.

FOLLOW THE MONEY 

Sen. Muñoz

It is the Democratic senators who will make the pick and signs are good for the first term Santa Fe senator. 

Moderate Dem Sen. Moe Maestas donated $1,500 to Trujillo's 2024 campaign fund and progressive Senator Stewart came with $2,500. Outgoing leader Wirth contributed $3,500. Sen. George Muñoz, a moderate Dem and chair of the influential Senate Finance Committee on which Trujillo serves, was another donor to her campaign kitty. He gave $1,500. 

Those senators or their committees donated cash to other senators as well, but if those who donated to Trujillo are with her at the November caucus she would not need many more votes (Sens. Duhigg and Sedillo Lopez?) to take the prize.

The business community is closely watching the coming shift of power in the Senate and Trujillo is not discouraging their support. Her 2024 donors include $11,000 from oil giant Chevron, $1,500 from tobacco company Altria and $3,000 from Anheuser-Busch.

Those donations from corporate America and certain senators may draw heat in some quarters but Trujillo's boosters say it's all part of building those bridges. 

Veronica Garcia, a longtime NM education leader who served as Superintendent of Santa Fe public schools when Trujillo sat on the school board, says of the woman who may become the state's newest power player: 

Over and over she’s demonstrated finesse and diplomacy and is able to get things done.  

READER VOX POPULI

Reader Bob Ferguson writes: 

I want to thank you and the ABQ Journal's Dan Boyd for your political commentary at the recent AARP town hall meeting in ABQ. 

For most races, I vote for the least objectionable candidate--the lesser of two evils. And while I am a lifelong moderate Republican, I vote for the person and not the party. For our gubernatorial election, I am firmly in Gregg Hull’s camp. I know Hull has a steep climb to defeat Deb Haaland as she has name recognition going for her as a former US House representative and Secretary of the Interior. But I see her as an “empty vessel” and not very smart. She can’t seem to think on her feet very well and has her team do all her talking. I think she will win the election, but for the life of me I cannot understand why anyone would vote for her. Hull describes himself as moderate and as such I think he needs to publicly distance himself from Trump and the far right MAGA. This state is so deeply blue that unless he does so, I don’t think he has a chance. I give his campaign money every month, something I have never done before and which shows how badly I want him elected. 

Reader John Locke writes: 

Hi Joe, I read your Aug. 17  post and my reaction to the “poll numbers games”  was “I knew it." I got the text from the Haaland campaign like others but didn’t scratch my head. I read your post and knew that the campaign citing a six point deficit for Haaland was BS. My second reaction to the text was annoyance. Is this how it’s going to be, Ms. Haaland? You are going to lie to us when it suits your fancy? I know politics is a dirty business but this deliberate lie looks like an unforced error. Let’s hope we see no more of this kind of nonsense. 

TRY 17 NOT SIX 

From the Archive: 2008

Haaland's campaign continues to hammer away in fund-raising missives about that purported six point polling deficit but reality is catching up. The first independent public poll--although conducted on line and not with in person phone calls--shows what is obvious to the political community--Haaland has a considerable lead over Republican Gregg Hull. 

The BSP Research survey has her 17 points ahead of Republican Gregg Hull--41% to 24% with 27 percent undecided. 

The poll among 800 registered voters was conducted July 22 to August 8 and has a margin of error of 3.5 percent. BSP focuses on reaching Hispanics and immigrants. In that regard Haaland had about 40 percent support from both Anglos and Hispanics. Hull was at 30 percent with white voters and 16 percent with Hispanics. 

The killer for the Republicans remains the ABQ metro where the survey showed Haaland ahead of Hull by 26 percent. Until the GOP can start cracking that nut their fortunes for any statewide victories remain dismal.

Nothing seems to stop Haaland's fund-raising mavens from fudging the numbers as they troll for out-of state dollars where news of the lopsided race in Haaland's favor doesn't penetrate but still annoys many of her supporters here. Soon after the survey was released the money chasers were again using the GOP poll showing her behind. Maybe the rigorous and comprehensive ABQ Journal poll set to be released this Sunday will change their tune. The melody is getting old. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.