Deb Haaland has work to do and state Republicans have some major deciding to do. Those are the messages from the first public polling of the '26 gubernatorial primary races released Wednesday.

The April 18-19 survey conducted by Emerson College for KRQE-TV gave a jolt to the political community showing Haaland beating Sam Bregman 40.4% to 23.9% with a large 35.7 percent undecided. 

That 16 point lead for former Sec. of Interior Haaland is down significantly from the 30 point lead (56-26) she had in a poll released by her campaign in February. 

On the Republican side former Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull came out on top in this first public poll, getting 21 percent support to 10 percent for cannabis executive Duke Rodriguez and 9 per cent for ABQ businessman Doug Turner. But the most important number turned out to be the undecided. A whopping 61 percent of those planning to vote in the GOP primary, including independents, said they had not made up their mind.

Emerson provided some of the demographics from the poll for the Dem primary:

Deb Haaland holds plurality support, driven by a 24-point advantage among women, leading Bregman 42% to 18% and a 30-point lead among voters with college degrees, leading 53% to 23%. Men break for Haaland by a narrower margin: 38% support Haaland and 31% Bregman, and voters without a college degree are split: 28% support Haaland and 25% Bregman.” Registered Democrats break for Haaland, 48% to 23%, while independent voters participating in the Democratic Primary break for Bregman, 28% to 17%; a majority of independents are undecided (56%). 

Emerson did not release demographic info on the Republican race. 

INDYS OVER SAMPLED?

The firm polled 1,000 likely primary voters including 250 independents who for the first time are able to vote in state party primary elections. That's 25 percent of the electorate, reflecting their state registration However, their turnout rate for the primary is expected to be much lower--from 5 to 10 percent of the voters, say most analysts we have interviewed. That could explain some of Haaland's weakness in the survey. Bregman does best with men and independent voters, with the possibility that the poll may have over sampled the independent influence.

BREGMAN REACT 

Bregman and Haaland

Still, Bregman took heart from the survey showing as it did showing as it did that Haaland was still below the magic 50 percent mark that so often signals a candidate's eventual victory. The BernCo District Attorney's campaign made these points to the blog: 

The Undecided Factor: At 36%, the "Undecided" vote is. . .a massive opportunity for Bregman to pull ahead as the June 2nd primary approaches in six weeks. 

The Independent Surge: This is New Mexico’s first semi-open primary. Bregman’s record as Bernalillo County District Attorney resonates strongly with the Independent voters who are expected to decide this election. 

Haaland is Underperforming: Despite years in the national spotlight, Haaland has failed to clear the 50% mark, signaling that Democratic and Independent voters are looking for an alternative.

Well, independents will be hard-pressed to "decide this election" but despite the hyperbole Bregman did get a life line from the poll and his fund-raising should not take a major hit as a result. 

The Haaland campaign made no public comment on the survey. 

PAYNE'S TAKE 

Our longtime blog analyst, former ABQ City Councilor and Santa Fe attorney Greg Payne said last week when Haalnd released a campaign finance report that dwarfed Bregman's numbers  that it appeared her candidacy was becoming "a fait aaccompli." We asked him to revisit the campaigns in light of the Emerson survey:

I'm a little surprised Deb Haaland isn't at 50 percent. Neither of the theses campaigns seeem to have fired up the Democratic base fully yet. For the amount of money she has spent and to be at only 40 percent would bother me if I were her campaign manager. On the flip side there are still many undecided but I don't seem them breaking Sam Bregman's way. So her candidacy is looking more like "a quasi-fait-accompli."

The Republican polling drew less immediate reaction because it appears so wide open and everyone involved is waiting for the three candidates to get their paid media up and running which appears will be a deciding factor in what is shaping up as a close contest for the state's minority party. 

Emerson says of its April 18-19 survey:

The sample of New Mexico likely primary voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percent. The Democratic Primary consists of n=564 likely primary voters with a credibility interval of +/-4.1%. The Republican Primary consists of n=436 likely primary voters with a credibility interval of +/-4.7%

 NEW MEXICANS ON ISSUES

Also from Emerson's findings: 

A majority of voters (61%) are undecided. Healthcare and the economy are the top issues foro likely primary voters, at 23% respectively, followed by crime (17%), education (12%), housing affordability (9%), threats to democracy (7%), and immigration (5%). 

JOURNAL POLL SUNDAY 

An unusually early ABQ Journal poll of the June 2 primary election contests hits the streets and the screens this Sunday. It could sway potential donors but because of the early start it will not have the predictive power a mid-May survey would have. 

This April poll is the only one the Journal has planned for the primary.

Longtime pollster Brian Sanderoff of Research and Polling says the survey to be released this weekend will cover the contested Democratic statewide races which include governor, land commissioner and secretary of state. He did not say if the results will be rolled out in one day or over several days. 

Results of the polling in the Republican gubernatorial contest will not be released until Sunday, May 3.

In 2024 the Journal poll of that year's primary election was conducted May13-18 so it included voters who had already cast ballots and fewer undecided voters. It also captured candidate momentum heading into the final days of the campaign. This year's April survey comes before any early votes have been cast and also before the heaviest advertising begins.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics 

Sam Bregman got a shot of momentum when the campaign of Deb Haaland stumbled after posting information about the locations of four homes owned by the BernCo District Attorney. Now he's trying to keep it going with his harshest attack yet on the front-runner for the '26 Democratic gubernatorial nomination. 

Bregman's new TV ad throws the proverbial kitchen sink at Haaland, featuring a series of mostly women voters posing negative questions of her: 

Why is Deb Haaland attacking Sam Bregman? Because she doesn't have detailed plans to run on? Or is it because Deb Haaland doesn't want you to know that she flew on Jeffrey Epstein's charter jet? Or that Deb Haaland failed to act on sexual abuse at a school she managed at Interior. Maybe that's why she won't even debate Sam. I'm Sam Bregman. The people deserve more than attack ads. Deb, let's debate. 

Haaland was the first Native American Secretary of Interior and this is Bregman's first volley over her tenure as a Biden cabinet secretary. 

The allegation that she "failed to act"on sexual abuse at a school refers to allegations of mismanagement and cover ups regarding misconduct at Haskell Indian Nations University in Lawrence, Kansas. 

It is Bregman's attempt to chip away at what Haaland considers one of her major accomplishments at Interior--the establishment of a Federal Indian Boarding School Initiative to investigate historical abuses.

Bregman's ramped up attacks on Haaland come with absentee ballots set to be mailed in less than two weeks--May 5--and with polling that has showed him lagging Haaland. His landslide defeat at the Dem party preprimary convention also slowed him. 

Bregman has turned out to be more a threat than the Haaland camp expected, raising enough money to compete for attention, hiring top gun consultants and putting to use his experience as a veteran campaigner who has lost most of his previous races. 

Gone for the most part in Bregman's ads is the black cowboy hat he constantly sported in his early appearances. Bregman, 63, a noted trial lawyer before becoming DA, now appears more sober and lawyerly as he faces the toughest case of his lengthy career. 

DOW'S WIN

In Republican action, state Rep. Rebecca Dow was placed back on the June primary ballot by the NM Supreme Court Tuesday. The Dems were poised to take the rural southern District 38 seat after she was kicked off. Now the Republicans are set to keep it in their column. The Democrats have only a write-in candidate. 

Watching the mega-celebration on social media of Dow's court win was a bit odd, but given the state of New Mexico Republicans holding on to the little you have is a reason to party. As for Dow, she is a valuable member of the small minority House caucus and provides thoughtful opposition to the Dems. The court fight tested her mettle. 

 DUKE DOINGS

Rodriguez Facebook ad

Duke Rodriguez has roused state Democrats. They come with this hit on the GOP governor candidate's lawsuit over the state's universal child care program:

Arizona’s Duke Rodriguez Tries to Take Away Universal Childcare RPNM gubernatorial field maintains GOP’s universal opposition to universal childcare 

Arizona’s Duke Rodriguez recently filed a lawsuit to take away universal childcare from New Mexicans. This blatant attention grab from the “Duke of Scottsdale" Rodriguez, who is known to voters for being from Arizona, being sued by other Republicans, and an embarrassing loss at RPNM’s pre-primary convention, comes just weeks before voting starts in the primary election.  

Rodriguez has won several lawsuits challenging his New Mexico residency and continues to court both Republicans and independents who for the first time this year are allowed to vote in party primaries.

His appeal to Hispanics leaps from the page and may be one reason the Democrats are taking time to attack him even before the primary is over. Rodriguez says:

 The Democrats have taken the Hispanic vote for granted for decades. Not anymore. I'm running — and winning--on common sense, conservative values that New Mexico families actually believe in.

Rodriguez may not have lived her consistently in recent years but he grew up in Silver City and his Hispanic heritage is critical to his electoral success. No Anglo has been elected Governor since Gary Johnson won re-election in 1998. Johnson has endorsed Rodriguez.

The "Duke of Scottsdale," the nickname awarded him by New Mexican columnist Milan Simonich, must still survive expected attacks from Doug Turner and Greg Hull over his residency, his ethics as well as his numerous campaign contributions to Democrats. Will those attacks immediately collapse his candidacy or will the Duke become the king of the GOP? 

Stay tuned to this space. . . 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics 

It's common for a candidate to take heat when their fund-raising comes up short but this year there's a switch. The candidate who has raised the most is being questioned over the huge amount she has already spent.  

Dem Guv hopeful Deb Haaland's historic $11.1 million take with seven months still to go in the cycle is a stunner, but so is the reveal that she has already gone through over half that cash. 

In her finance report released last week Haaland reports expenditures as of April 6 of $6.713 million and cash on hand of $4.366 million.

In the October-April period she raised $4.075 million and spent $2.610 million. So where did the money go? There was no high dollar TV campaign or radio ads during that time. Her foes argue the big spend shows she is fiscally reckless and will be the same as Governor. The political pros are more cautious. They say the cost of raising money has ballooned and that for each dollar raised nearly half of that dollar may be spent to raise it which is the case for Haaland. 

We had consultants and AI help us parse the tremendous amount of data in Haaland's 13,000 page report  for that October-April period and found that 47 percent of the cash she collected went to fund-raising. 

With the standard warning that AI can make mistakes but is usually strong with data, here are the details:

The vast majority of the campaign's overhead is geared toward maintaining its massive small-dollar donor engine. 

--Digital fund-raising and list acquisition cost of $1,145,000. This is the largest single category of spending. Haaland’s campaign relies on a high volume of low-dollar donations (she says the over all donor average is $35). To keep this engine running, they spent heavily on digital ads. About $820,000 went to digital firms for acquisition ads designed to find new donors. 

Email & SMS Strategy: Approximately $325,000 was paid to consulting firms to manage the high-frequency email and text message program that drives the bulk of the $4 million. 

--Because the campaign is grassroots-funded, it pays a significant amount in transaction taxes. The report shows roughly $161,000 paid to ActBlue. This is the standard 3.95% fee on credit card contributions. Essentially, for every $1 million raised online, $39,500 never actually reaches the campaign's bank account.  

--Direct Mail & Tele-Fundraising $412,000. Despite the digital focus, the campaign invested heavily in traditional outreach to reach older voters and rural donors.

--Printing & Postage: $285,000 for high-gloss mailers focused on fundraising appeals. Call Centers: $127,000 for donor maintenance and tele-town hall fundraising events. Fundraising Staff & Travel:$218,000.

Of the $4,075,653 Haaland raised in October to April, AI estimates the direct cost to raise it was $1,939,280. That's approximately 47 cents to raise every $1.00 in the six month period. 

THE BOTTOM LINES 

Haaland has raised massive amounts of campaign funds and spent prodigious amounts to ensure a donor base not only for the primary but one that is ready to give for the general election--should she defeat Sam Bregman June 2.

While a 47% "cost to raise" is high, it is considered healthy for a grassroots operation. By spending this money now, the campaign has built a massive database estimated by AI at over 39,000 donors. They can return to them for free in the final months without having to pay for new ads.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.

Duke Rodriguez

Duke Rodriguez is hedging his bets. 

The GOP gubernatorial candidate seeded his campaign with an initial $500,000 in personal money and declared that he would spend as much as $2 million on the primary. But he is on track to fall short of that number. 

Upon release of his latest campaign finance report last week, the business entrepreneur announced he would be donating another $500,000 in personal funds to his campaign for a total of $1 million. Critics jumped, questioning his commitment to the race which also features ABQ businessman Doug Turner and former Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull who each report raising about $500,000. We asked Rodriguez about that $2 million commitment and why he has not come with the entire amount. He said: 

I remain fully committed to investing up to $2 million in this campaign. Any smart businessperson deploys capital in tranches, not all at once. You invest strategically, measure impact, and then scale. . . I could have written a check for the full amount and sat on a pile of cash comparable to at least one of the Democrats—but that proves nothing. Empty claims don’t win elections. Execution does. What matters is what we’re doing now. Just this week alone, we launched a second round of billboard buys, a six-figure radio campaign, next is TV, and we’re rolling out additional print and direct mail. That’s real investment, not talk. The reality is it takes about a million dollars to move the needle on name ID in a race like this. And with more than 70% of likely voters still undecided, this is the most critical phase. We’ll be deploying another $500,000 over the next 50 days to define who I am to voters. . .I’m focused on building a campaign that wins—and letting others take their best shots along the way. 

Rodriguez sounds as if he may be putting a cap of $1 million on his declared $2 million spend for the June 2 primary. Consultants we asked still don't rule out a final days additional donation from Rodriguez, believing he will analyze his polling as mid-May approaches and make a final decision on putting up cash beyond the $1 million. One of them opined:

If he’s gaining ground, he could lean in on spending more to cross the finish line. But if he’s stalled in the teens, he might stick to the $1 million and call it a day. 

There has been no public polling in the race. The candidates are not widely known making cash even more critical than usual. Rodriguez still has the edge. As of April 6 he reports spending $373,000 of the first $500,000 he has donated, leaving him with $175,000 in cash on hand. Combined with the fresh $500K he is giving, that amounts to $675,000 in cash. 

Turner reported $440,000 in cash and Hull reported $238,000. 

DINING AT MAR-A-LAGO

While the PR does not say "Trump is attending," a May 6 high-dollar fund-raiser--$10,000-$25,000 per couple--at the president's Mar-a-Lago private club for Guv candidate Doug Turner and Alaska's Bernadette Wilson--signals an alignment with the Trump agenda. 

New Mexico oil tycoons Mark Murphy and Harvey Yates, Jr. have the communications lines open to Trump. They back Turner and an educated guess is that they have been helpful with the invite to the event hosted by Chris and Ashlee Clarke, advertising heavyweights. 

Insiders tell us Murphy attended a party at the turn of the year at Mar-a-Lago where Trump was in attendance. 

Speculation has it that pairing Turner with an Alaska Guv hopeful could be a broader effort to fuse together governor campaigns in energy producing states. 

All the NM GOP Guv candidates have shied away from Trump on the campaign trail--the proverbial elephant in the room---but whomever is the party's nominee will have to carry his baggage in blue New Mexico. Some will say Turner's cozying up to Trump is a change of "math" rather than a change of heart. One GOP Alligator commenting:

He’s betting that the Trump connection gets him through the primary, and his "moderate businessman" resume gets him through the November general election.

Whatever the case, collecting Trump-related cash could up the ante and put heat on Rodriguez. 

Meanwhile Hull and Turner continue to get aced by Rodriguez in the battle for free media. This lawsuit he filed challenging MLG's funding for universal early childhood care received a fair share of ink.  

DOXXER DEB?

Bregman and Haaland

Meanwhile in the Democratic Guv primary we're seeing the first public tension between Deb Haaland and Sam Bregman with the BernCo District Attorney personally confronting her over his family's safety. This after her campaign posted information about four houses that Bregman owns in ABQ, Angel Fire and Houston. 

The post says Bregman won't stand up to millionaires because he is one, but the reference to his homes was taken down Friday when Bregman condemned the posting and declared that he was being doxxed--that his family was put at risk. 

The post did not have the addresses of the properties but did provide a link for other information about them.

That was enough for Bregman to go on the offensive and do so in person. At a weekend meeting of El Dorado Democrats near Santa Fe where both candidates appeared, Bregman stood with microphone in hand while Haaland was seated to his right and blasted her--a moment shared on the socials:

I have to be honest. Deb, this was an epic failure of judgement. when you posted on your website my 88 year old grandmother's house, my daughter's house (who) is with my two grandchildren. It's a click away from someone finding out. Everyone knows what I do for a living, I'm the District Attorney but you want to post that to get some kind of political shot in. That's called doxxing. It's not right and I can't believe we have actually stooped to that level in this campaign. My family in danger because of a political campaign? Ridiculous. 

A Haaland spokeswoman responded: 

None of this is private information. We did not publish his address, and ultimately, there are ways to look this up.  

Bregman has been attacking Haaland in paid media for taking a ride on a jet linked to Jeffrey Epstein and constantly chiding her over her refusal to debate him. While a counterattack could be expected, the posting about homes owned by the chief prosecutor in the state's largest county appears to be a rookie error. For the moment it pumps some fresh air into Bregman's uphill campaign. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.

The immense fundraising reported by Dem gubernatorial candidate Deb Haaland--over $11 million already raised for a campaign in a state of 2.1 million--comes with multiple descriptions: "Overwhelming, insane, a national phenomenon." (Full report here.)

Perhaps most alarming to Haaland's critics is the label assigned by longtime state political analyst, former legislator and attorney Greg Payne who opines:

Her candidacy is starting to look like a fait accompli.

In her finance report released this week Haaland reports total expenditures thus far of $6.713 million and cash on hand of $4.366 million. Her Dem primary foe Sam Bregman is not even in shouting distance with $853,000 in cash. 

Haaland's report of donations for the last six months runs nearly a stunning 13,000 pages, so large that the Secretary of State's office needed several days to get it downloaded. 

Overall, the report is so astonishing that it prompts the question of whether her progressive supporters --most of whom are ardent campaign reform advocates--won't ask her to voluntarily place a limit on her future fundraising. She won't, of course. Those grassroots supporters see her cash haul as a mandate. The manic fundraising goes on even if there is only a shred of hope that the eventual GOP nominee could compete against her national cash avalanche that is premised on Haaland becoming the state's first Native American governor and the nation's first female Native American governor.

BERNIE SANDERS AURA 

There are large donations on the report but it is the massive number of small donations from all 50 states that gives it a Bernie Sanders aura, recalling his presidential campaign that first harnessed millions of small-donors in the Democratic grassroots and made history. 

The national ownership of this candidacy also sparks debate over how Haaland would governor our small southwestern state. Would it become even more of a laboratory for California-style progressive politics? Would she pursue national ambitions upon taking office? Would she employ her fund-raising prowess for robust paid ad campaigns to push her agenda through the legislature? Could she get involved in Democratic primaries to take out what remains of the moderate wing of the Democratic party?

A PAPER TIGER? 

Here's a larger issue that has irritated Haaland and her campaign and that can't be hidden behind mountains of cash: Is she a paper tiger? Does she remain vulnerable to a case of the glass jaw where she breaks under the pressure? Is she "incompetent," a charge made publicly this week by GOP governor candidate Doug Turner? 

Bregman says yes to all of the above and has repeatedly challenged Haaland to TV debates which she continues to reject. (The one joint appearance scheduled in May does not qualify as a real debate.)

Haaland's wildly successful fund-raising also can't erase doubts that her candidacy could amount to an ultra-expensive vanity project, anointing her to a first in the nation status but then flailing when challenged by the prospect of truly governing. It is not an imagined worry. 

In 2010 Republican Susana Martinez was celebrated as the nation's first Hispanic woman governor only to falter badly and leave office unpopular and largely unaccomplished after eight years in office. Martinez's deficiencies were seen during her campaign but an enamored electorate looked the other way. 

Money can do wonders for a campaign as Haaland is showing, but it does not change the fundamental nature of a candidate's personality that campaigns are intended to test. The most pressing question on the table at this historic juncture is whether Haaland will be put to the test or is the "fait accompli" already inevitable? 

PAC ATTACKS 

That PAC needling Haaland over her link to Jeffrey Epstein is being financed by figures in the orbit of Sam Bregman although his campaign denies being behind the Accountable NM PAC which reports raising $87,000 for ads attacking Haaland's ride on a jet linked to accused pedophile Epstein. The news:

At least three of (the PAC's) four donors are linked to Bregman through New Mexico’s horse racing industry. . .all four contributed to Bregman in the last campaign reporting period, according to filings. Bregman served as chairman of the New Mexico Racing Commission before stepping in as Bernalillo County district attorney in early 2023. His campaign denied any involvement with the group.

Sam Bregman

What's left of the conservative and moderate wings of the state Democratic party is grasping at the coattails of Sam Bregman who continues a spirited but still long-shot campaign to deprive progressive Deb Haaland of the party's gubernatorial nomination at the June 2 primary election.

In campaign fund-raising reports released this week in which Haaland again greatly out-raised Bregman but did not bury him, his links to the nonprogressive segments of the party are on fully display. They reveal how the sparks would fly between the Fourth Floor and the progressive-dominated state House if Bregman were somehow to pull off an upset win. (His campaign finance report here.)

For example, Gallup state Rep. Patricia Lundstrom, onetime leader of a vibrant conservative House Dem wing who was ousted from her chairmanship of the powerful House Appropriations Committee when progressive Speaker Javier Martinez took over, had her campaign committee donate $5,000 to Bregman. What a comeback a win by him would be for her.

State Rep. Joseph Sanchez of Alcalde came in even stronger for the Bernalillo county district attorney, donating $10,000 and signaling continued dissatisfaction among Hispanic men with his very "woke" party. Sanchez is seen as a natural House leader but not under the current regime. 

Las Cruces state Rep. Doreen Gallegos once basked in the shadow of state senate powerhouse John Arthur Smith but his defeat in 2020 and the ongoing progressive wave sent her to the sidelines. She donated $5,000 to Bregman and her longtime business lobbyist husband, Scott Scanland, topped that with a $7,400 contribution.

Also from Cruces, the campaign committee of Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Joe Cervantes, who ran unsuccessfully for the '18 Dem gubernatorial nomination as a moderate, kicked in $1,500, hoping Sam can do what Joe could not.

Back to the north where former Las Vegas area state Rep. Ambrose Castellano was tossed from his House seat two years ago by a progressive challenger and is running again this year. He gave $7,500 to Bregman. Imagine how that alliance would rock the House if it came to fruition.

Former State Treasurer and current Bernalillo County Treasurer Tim Eichenberg has been a conservative Democrat who has survived and lived to tell the tale. He is back fighting with a $10,000 donation to Bregman in hopes of slowing the progressive bent at the Roundhouse. 

With the odds so much against Bregman, the willingness of these folks to spit into the prevailing wind shows the scar tissue they've developed from the battlefields of La Politica. Keen observers will keep them in mind if Bregman manages to catch lightning in a bottle June 2. 

FAMILY TIES

Reagan and Alex Bregman

The Bregman report highlights the deep family ties of the candidate as they gave $30,000 to the campaign, including $10,000 from his famous baseball playing son Alex Bregman.

Alex also comes into play with a $10,000 donation to his dad from Ivan T. Carbrera of Louisiana, a horse owner who has partnered with Alex to buy thoroughbred horses and run Bregman Family Racing. 

Reagan Bregman, the wife of Alex, is an entrepreneur who has tapped the services of boutique ad agency Best Efforts for her salsa company Wild Sol and baby skincare firm Roe Wellness. We counted at least $60,000 in total donations to Sam Bregman from employees of Best Efforts stationed in El Paso. 

BIZ BUZZ

It's no secret that Bregman appeals more to business than Haaland and that was again demonstrated in this report covering the period from last October to early April.

Presbyterian Health Plan, one of the largest and most influential business partners of the state, donated $12,400 to Bregman.

Presbyterians relationship with the state is built on their multi-billion dollar managed care contracts for Medicaid and providing insurance for the state's large workforce. Haaland's report was not available at blog press time to see if Pres also donated to her. (Update: Pres gave Haaland $12,400 and it was reported in an earlier report)

Real estate interests have been giving heavily to Bregman. In ABQ the well-known Rembe development family gave generously, including a $5,000 donation from Penny Rembe.

Before politics Bregman was a noted defense attorney. His latest report is loaded with trial lawyer donations from here and afar, including the Whitener Law Firm that came with $12.400.

And we can't forget the oil boys whose support for Bregman is constantly targeted by his progressive foes. They were not shy about their giving with Devon Energy President Clay Gaspar donating $12,400, one of many energy company donations received by Bregman. That's highly relevant because of this headline: 

"Devon Energy’s $79 million acquisition of federal oil and gas leases in New Mexico’s Eddy County marks a defining moment for the Permian Basin as the industry enters 2026.

The business community and the significant segment of voters not on the progressive side of the aisle have been on the defensive but are not irrelevant. Bregman has built a bridge to them. They will alook for signs that the sometimes uber-progressive Haaland will do the same--if she becomes the Dem nominee. 

THE NUMBERS

Here's a report on the filings of all the Dem and GOP governor candidates.  

Bregman's total contributions for Campaign  '26 now total $3,680,755.74. Total Expenditures are $2,917,274.95. In-Kind Contributions $79,592.07. His current cash balance is $853,428.72 

Deb Haaland has reports raising $11,079,700.86 with expenditures of $6,712,907.66 and In-Kind Contributions of $21,566.88. Her current cash balance is $4,366,793.20 is 5.12 times larger than Bregman's cash on hand. 

RIO RANCHO RESULTS  

Mayor-elect Wymer

Rio Rancho City Councilor Paul Wymer won the city's mayoral run-off election in a landslide Tuesday, defeating Dem challenger Alexandria Piland 63% to 37%. The results affirmed the Republican lean of the suburban city directly northwest of ABQ. 

Results late Tuesday had Wymer with 10,394 votes to Piland's 6.096, a turnout of about 20 percent of the about 84,000 registered voters in the city of 112,000.

More on the election is on our Monday blog. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics 

It's the issues not making headlines in today's Rio Rancho mayoral run-off election that catch the eye of New Mexicans who may harbor a streak of envy. 

In that sprawling suburb of of 112,000 souls, ensconced a hop and a skip away from Big Burque, hardly a peep can be heard about drug addiction, crime--juvenile or otherwise--or the homeless. Those, of course, are the perennial problems that bedevil their neighbors. 

Instead the big issue in the City of Vision is the respective candidates' vision for making the car-clogged roads easier to navigate. Really? Yep. That's it. 

That may make the political class stifle their yawns but Mr. and Mrs. New Mexico would probably give away a freezer full of green chile to have a Rio Rancho election election of their own. That's not to be because Rio Rancho is unique. 

IN THE BEGINNING. . .  

The city was founded in the 1960's by a real estate company who populated it with retirees from the New York area who gladly gobbled up the desert acreage to escape the ravages then sweeping across big city East Coast life.

Those emigres were primarily Anglo working class--retired cops and firefighters, schoolteachers and others. That DNA is still in the city today with a conservative streak dominating politics. There are now more Hispanic voices as the city became attractive to ABQ and Santa Fe working class voters tired of overpriced homes, schools that didn't deliver and the insidious creep of drugs and crime. 

Given that backdrop it would be quite the upset if Democrat Alexandria Piland were to defeat Republican Rio Rancho City Councilor Paul Wymer today but not unimaginable. Both have been on their game as they campaign widely and energetically while raising close to $80,000 each to woo voters. 

FOLLOWING THE MONEY 

Wymer and Piland

Digging into the finance reports we find Republican Wymer's donations lean heavily on the ABQ development community that does considerable business in the city including on those aforementioned roads. 

Roadrunner Redi Mix donated $5,000 to Wymer's effort. JPR Decorative Gravel also came with $5,000 as did ABQ land developer Garett Price and ABQ contractor S& S Enterprises. 

Piland, a former official with the Sandoval County Democratic Party, saw her campaign receive $5,000 from that party. Offsetting Wymer's development money, she received $20,000 from various labor groups including $5,000 each from the Central NM Labor Council, the Plumbers and Pipefitters union, the IBEW PAC and the NM Building and Trades council. 

Piland also reports significant individual donations with $8,000 coming from Corrrales couple Peter Coha, a retired Intel engineer, and his wife Nicki Norwark.  

RIO RANCHO VS. ABQ 

Rio Rancho Mayor Greg Hull held the office starting in 2014. He ended his long run this year to run for the '26 gubernatorial nomination. Hull gets his fair share of praise for ably governing the city and keeping away the big city evils that often thrive on the doorstep. But a direct comparison of Rio Rancho to ABQ is apples and oranges. 

Rio Rancho is in so many ways a homogeneous community easily united by a population that moved there for the specific purposes of low crime, affordable middle-class housing and decent schools. There has been very little disagreement over the city's destiny since it was first incorporated in 1981. 

On the other hand, ABQ is a beehive (some would say a hornets' nest) of diverse opinions and population that is exceedingly difficult to get on the same page on anything. But the city does offer a more zestful and varied quality of life than Rio Rancho even as it struggles with a challenging set of social ills. To each his own as the saying goes. 

Today's mayoral run-off election won't settle much. Both Wymer and Piland have inherited that DNA from the original settlers who sought a quiet refuge that had features of a city but at heart was and is an escape from one. 

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A new study showing New Mexicans shouldering the fourth highest tax burden in the nation will be fodder for GOP Guv candidates Duke Rodriguez and Doug Turner. Both have been calling for either eliminating or chipping away at the state's gross receipts tax and personal income tax.

If the WalletHub study has it right (and some tax nerds may dispute it) the state's total tax burden (just the state burden not the Feds) is10.76 percent, placing us behind only Hawaii, New York and Vermont for the highest tax rate in the nation. 

New Mexico's gross receipts tax is largely responsible, says the study. 

The overall NMGRT rate is 6.28 percent with only Hawaii's 7.48 percent sales and excise taxes higher

The GRT in the state varies widely with Taos Ski Valley the highest at 9.4375 percent. ABQ is at 6.625. The city of Santa Fe is at 8.312% and downtown Las Cruces at 8.39% 

The state rate is currently 4.875 percent but local governments can add their own increments and that takes the rate much higher. 

Unlike the sales tax in other states, the NMGRT is know as the "tax on everything." It applies to almost all services leading to a much broader tax base. 

State government says it is expected to raise $4 to $5 billion from the GRT in the budget year that ends in June. Cutting into that significantly is not impossible but problematic. The latest state General Fund budget is $11.1 billion. 

As we recently noted, MLG engineered two small GRT cuts during her two terms. Rather than elimination of the GRT, such continued small cuts and a more sweeping reduction in the personal income tax rate may be an alternative that emerges to lower the state's too-high tax burden.

Keeping the PIT on high earners earners but eliminating it for a broad class of other taxpayers is one way to lower the state's overall burden. And it should be lower, say tax cut advocates, given the huge oil money reserves and the state's low per capita income.

Republicans are on board and Dem Guv candidate Sam Bregman appear flexible but Dem Guv front-runner Haaland, a progressive, may need convincing.  

A CLEAR PATH 

Vasquez & Cunningham

The path has been cleared for Greg Cunningham to become the Republican nominee for the 2nd congressional district with the announced withdrawal of his rival Jose Orozco. 

Cunningham, a Gulf War Marine veteran and former APD officer, says he is building his campaign on a platform of "border security, economic growth, and accountable governance." 

Cunningham was always the favorite for the nomination. Orozco had to resort to getting additional petition signatures to make the ballot after failing to get enough support at the GOP preprimary convention. But having Orozco, a Marine veteran and former DEA contractor, out of the contest will remove any competition Cunningham had for funding and gives him longer to establish himself without interruption as he preps to take on two-term Dem US Rep. Gabe Vasquez in November. 

The 2nd CD contest is now ranked "lean Democratic" so Cunningham will need more breaks like Orozco's towel throw to get the race in play. 

NO WRITE IN FOR DOW

We erred in the first draft of our Thursday column when we said there is a possibility that GOP state Rep. Rebecca Dow might run as a write-in candidate in the November election after being kicked off the June primary ballot by a district court for submitting incomplete screenshots of her petition signatures.

As the SOS's office explains:   

Representative Dow cannot be a write-in candidate in the November election. Pursuant to state statute, "No person shall be a write-in candidate in the general election who was a candidate or who filed a declaration of candidacy in the primary election immediately prior to the general election" (Subsection F of 1-8-66 NMSA 1978). 

Dow filed her official "Declaration of Candidacy" in March to run in the primary so she is legally considered a "candidate" for that office. 

We regret the error. To atone for it we have submitted to four lashes with a wet noodle (the maximum punishment being 10 lashes).

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Rep. Dow (Eddie Moore, Journal)

Don't believe the optimists. It can always get worse. Case in point is the latest downer development for state Republicans. State Rep. Rebecca Dow, one of the leading lights left in the beleaguered minority party, flubbed the petition process for her re-election bid and has been denied a spot on the June primary ballot. She says she will appeal to the NM Supreme Court but a reversal is unlikely. 

The Democrats have only a write-in candidate for the June primary, David Mooney of Radium Springs whose website has no bio details but the messaging is progressive Dem. He can get on the November ballot by attracting around 30 votes required at the primary. If the political machine of House Speaker Javier Martinez then goes all-in for Mooney for November, the seat should be theirs. 

This means the Dems are now well-positioned to retake House District 38, a swing seat that includes parts of Dona Ana, Sierra and Socorro counties. Dow was first elected there in 2016 and served until she decided to make an unsuccessful run for the GOP gubernatorial nomination in 2022. That year Democrat Tara Jaramillo won the seat but in '24 Dow took it back.

The House is currently controlled 44-26 by the Dems. Any D pick-up would further the deep disadvantage Republican Santa Fe legislators already face. They would have to flip a Dem seat to make up for losing Dow--not an easy lift. 

The irony wasn't lost on anyone that former Rep. Jaramillo was signed up to be the plaintiff in the case  challenging Dow's petition signatures. The crafty attorney Daymon Ely, a former ABQ area Dem state rep, needed a registered District 38 voter to make good on his court challenge and Jaramillo was ready to go.  

THE LEGAL ANGLE 

Attorney Ely

Dow, a well-respected conservative, screwed up. Plain and simple. 

With a foe as legally agile as Ely and in spite of her protests that hers was a "technical" violation, her political ambitions were quashed by the district court who agreed with Ely's skillful argument: 

Ely said the issue was more than just a technical problem, "She filed screenshots of her nominating petitions and so a challenger looking at that couldn't find the addresses [of voters who signed her nominating petitions] because they weren't there," he said. "The screenshots do not include any addresses for the signatories, This is not simply a ministerial problem. Dow's opponents do not have an adequate method by which to determine whether the signatures are duplicative. The process is designed to keep people on the ballot, right? We want voters to have access. You want to have choices, and I agree with that. "But in this case, this is other side of the coin, which is people shouldn't be on the ballot if they've jeopardized in their ability to challenge their signatures. Otherwise you're going to have people just filing for office without valid signatures and not being challenged. And the election code is set up so that it's a transparent process, and then the challenger has a very short period of time to make the challenge. And in this case, that was compromised substantially by what Rebecca Dow did."

Any questions?

ROADMAP FOR CYFD 

The state attorney general's office--now called the Dept. of Justice-- has been making headlines for successfully suing Facebook for having a harmful influence on children. Important stuff but closer to home is the department's just reeleased in-depth investigation scorching the systemic and longtime problems causing the ongoing crisis at the state's Children, Youth and Families Department. 

CYFD says the AG's report "underplays" the "measurable success" made at the agency but we've been hearing that for years while horrific abuses continue and poor management makes matters worse. There is a lengthy list of recommendations in the report to improve how the state deals with neglected and abused children. They are well worth the special attention of the Legislature and the wanna be governors on the campaign trail. 

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