Hull and Haaland

The first major public poll of the '26 gubernatorial chase seems to rule out a blow-out win by Democrat Deb Haaland but nudges only slightly, if at all, that big boulder that lies on the path to victory for Republican Gregg Hull. 

The ABQ Journal survey conducted August 21-28 among 516 likely voters with a margin of error of 4.3 percent shows Haaland with 49 percent Hull at 43 and 8 percent undecided. 

The poll was perceived as a blow to Haaland because expectations have been running higher than that 49 percent--whcih is one point shy of the magic 50 percent.  Her superior fund-raising, higher name ID and the Democratic lean of the state were the reasons. But the poll is in line with past ones that pointed to an eventual Democratic win. That includes 2018 when MLG was ahead of Republican Steve Pearce 50 to 43 in an early September survey, nearly identical to this year's first Journal poll. She won that race 57 to 43 percent.

In 2022 in the late August Journal survey MLG sported a 47 to 40 margin over Republican Mark Ronchetti in the late August Journal poll. She went on to win by 6.4 percent. 

The last time a Republican won the gubernatorial contest was in 2010 and everyone saw it coming as Diane Denish trailed Susana Martinez 45 to 39 in the Journal's late August survey and went on to beat Democrat Denish 53 to 47 percent. 

While Haaland clearly lost the expectations game and gave Hull something to shoot for, the national handicappers who rate the race "solid Democratic" are unlikely to change their ratings based on the survey. If they did, it could boost the cash coffers of the former three term Rio Rancho mayor.

The poll barely registered with the bettors placing cash wagers on the outcome. On Polymarket Sunday after the poll was released Haaland had a 93 percent chance of victory to Hull's six percent.

MONAHAN'S RULE 

In the ABQ metro Haaland is beating Hull 56 to 39 percent. The populous metro has been key to the Dems long string of statewide wins--no statewide executive office (Governor, land commissioner etc.) has gone to a Republican since Susana Martinez was re-elected in 2014. The R's last statewide win was in 2016 for a state supreme court seat. Until the key ABQ metro again becomes competitive the state will stay uncompetitive. 

Still, the poll could serve to dampen any smugness that the Haaland camp has over having to fight fiercely for the Fourth Floor--to use one of her favorite adjectives. A major mishap could still put the race in play as could a poorly run effort in the final eight weeks.  

Hull's campaign remains cash-starved. Big oil Republicans have essentially boycotted him, some of them apparently miffed that their favorite for the GOP nomination, Doug Turner, was turned away by primary voters in favor of Hull. We'll see if Hull's decent polling performance reverses their lack of enthusiasm.

Haaland with her national reputation has raised a staggering $14 million. It's a record amount and as we said another reason the poll did not meet those higher expectations. 

ROOTING FOR A RACE 

The managing editor of the Republican-leaning Journal took the unusual step of publishing a front-page commentary celebrating the relative closeness of the race in their poll saying, "so much for the coronation." But Brian Sanderoff, the paper's longtime and estimable pollster, did not appear convinced that there is now a true "horse race" as the headline over the editor's commentary claimed. He opined:

It’s narrower than many people expected, including me, Despite the fact the race is closer than expected, Gregg Hull still faces an uphill battle.

CANDIDATES REACT 

(click to enlarge)

Haaland's camp, which all summer has been trying to motivate donors by claiming she was six points behind in some polling, did not have anything to say about the Journal's survey that shows her actually six points ahead. She could, of course, use that characterization of the contest as a "horse race" to excite donors as well as Democratic voters she needs to go to the polls. 

For his part Hull did all he could to gin up enthusiasm over the narrower than expected lead Haaland commands, exclaiming that "they said it would be a blowout. It isn't." He also claimed he was now within "striking distance" of Haaland.

But Hull's pleas for money following the poll revealed that time is growing short to raise the millions he will need to compete in the final two months and this poll must mark a pivot from his dismal performance in that regard:

Eight percent of New Mexico voters have not made up their minds yet, and. . . my opponent will use her advantage to flood the airwaves from now until November 3. She will spend millions telling New Mexicans who I am before I get the chance to tell them myself. I am not going to let that happen. But I need to be on television, on the radio, and in mailboxes in every corner of this state at the same time she is, and that takes resources we have to raise right now. 

Haaland will definitely be on all forms of broadcast media and soon. And if there is only a minimal Hull presence she could quickly pull ahead in the polling to come.  

ANGLO ANGLE 

A Dem consultant pointed out that the poll shows Anglo voters favoring Hull 48 to 46 percent, helping to keep her lead over Hull in the mid-single digits. He theorized:

The Dems taking on a significant Socialist wing may be helping a Blue Dog mentality taking hold among some Anglo men in particular--and they have been early deciders for Hull. That got him quickly to that base conservative vote of 43 percent. These were votes against her not for him. He remains largely unknown.

WHAT HULL MUST DO

Republican analyst Jamie Estrada does some heavy lifting on exactly where the Republican nominee stands in the aftermath of the Journal survey. He begins with the last time a Republican was elected governor:

Eighteen months before the 2010 election the Republican primary candidates made their campaigns about tying Lt. Gov Diane Denish to Gov. Bill Richardson’s corruption. Over time they persuaded enough voters. Unfortunately for Republicans, MLG’s administration is not the same kind of target Richardson’s was. There are, however, examples of grave incompetence, especially CYFD, and during Deb Haaland’s term as Interior Secretary she raised real questions about her competence. Those concerns are showing up again in her interviews and candidate forums. Hull has not been making the case against the Democrats' incompetence or corruption. In fact, he has made it clear that he will not run a negative campaign. So, will this poll finally convince Republican donors to get off the sidelines? It's doubtful given his stubborn refusal to draw sharper contrasts. Being a statesman and aggressively pointing out Haaland’s weaknesses and terrible policies are not mutually exclusive. What’s worse is that Haaland might raise millions off this poll, arguing that she needs more money to get over the finish line. 

DEM GATOR TAKE 

A Senior Alligator of the Dem variety found the poll interesting but was nonplussed by the closer than expected margin: 

That poll seems reflective of a pretty low profile race--perhaps a bit of oversampling of independents and some big assumptions on name ID. Undecideds are low. I can’t believe that Gregg Hull is as well-known as this poll portrays. He has had zero media and few voters know that he was mayor of Rio Rancho. I think when Haaland gets on the air with a heavy presence, Democrats will come home and the anti-Trump energy will overwhelm Hull. But Sanderoff's poll pleases the Journal and their conservative readers. Maybe they believe the Democrats are lazy and will stay home. 

That Gator pointing out that Haaland has stayed dark on paid broadcast media over the summer is notable but underdog and under-financed Hull was also dark and unable to force her into the daylight. 

HIDING THE BALL 

Hide the ball continues to be Haaland's strategy and she is avoiding joint appearances with Hull. Will that change in light of her losing the polling expectations game? State Republicans are starting the drumbeat:

Some of the most influential organizations in our state have provided candidates an opportunity to answer questions and explain their vision. Gregg Hull has shown up. Deb Haaland has not. At the Association of Counties annual conference, Hull was there and Haaland was a no-show. At the Alliance of Health Councils forum, Hull showed up to discuss healthcare with community and tribal health leaders--Haaland did not. (Dem. Lt. Gov. candidate) Stephanie Garcia Richard appeared instead. Then, at last week’s Municipal League Annual Conference in Las Cruces, Hull again appeared  while Garcia Richard substituted for Haaland . . .Deb Haaland wants New Mexicans to elect her as our state’s next governor, but Stephanie Garcia Richard is becoming the one sent into the room to answer questions. The governor will be responsible for a multibillion-dollar state government. . .Gregg Hull isn't asking someone else to explain what he believes. He isn't avoiding organizations whose members may ask difficult questions. That should matter to New Mexico voters. 

The two candidates have made one joint appearance. That was at a meeting in mid-August of an ABQ business group. The newspaper described the session as "congenial" with neither candidate attacking the other. 

Only one TV debate is scheduled thus far. Haaland has agreed to face off with Hull on KOB in mid-October. Haaland rejected one proposed by KOAT and the Journal. 

Haaland, as the state GOP infers, is obviously trying to protect herself from committing a major gaffe by fumbling hard policy questions and giving Hull the opportunity to compare and contrast his views with hers. Pressure will and should grow on her to come out hiding if she is to avoid the nickname No Show Haaland. A wanna be Governor just like a sitting one needs to project confidence. Haaland needs to dig deeper and make that list of no shows much shorter. 

As for the polling the Journal will have another in October not far from the November 3 election which is rapidly coming into sight. 

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Labels: 2026 Journal poll, Deb Haaland, Gregg Hull, New Mexico governor.

Sen. Wirth and Sen. Trujillo

There will be a new power player in Santa Fe come November and their rise to prominence will have little to do with the election.  

Sen. Peter Wirth, who has served in the powerful position of Senate Majority Leader since 2017, is leaving leadership and indications are that Sen. Linda Trujillo of Santa Fe could be the new face managing the rush of vital legislation introduced in the upper chamber of the New Mexican Legislature. 

The majority Democrats hold 26 seats and the Republicans 16. Dems will chose their new majority leader at a November caucus after the general election. Sen. Bill Sharer of the Four Corners is expected to again be selected by the Republican caucus as their Minority Leader.

While Trujillo is favored there could be a contest for the prestigious job when senate Democrats meet to select all of their leadership for the '27 legislative session and beyond. ABQ Senator Linda Lopez, Las Cruces area lawmaker Bill Soules and northern Senator Pete Campos are being mentioned as possible contenders for majority leader. 

But Trujillo, who was elected to two terms in the state House from District 48 and won election last year to the Senate District 24 seat vacated by Nancy Rodriguez, appears to be the odds-on favorite. 

Said a longtime Roundhouse lobbyist of Trujillo's prospects:

Besides her House service she is a licensed attorney, was a Head Start teacher, an elected member of the Santa Fe School Board and is a former Superintendent of the State Regulation and Licensing Department. That covers a lot of bases. Her main attribute is her level-headed approach. While progressive in instinct she is able to build bridges between the factions now dominant in the Senate. 

Wirth, a trial attorney, was also a bridge builder but those bridges started to burn last year when his resistance to medical malpractice reform overwhelmed him. It was clearly time to head for the exits. He resigned from leadership but will stay in the Santa Fe senate seat he was first elected to in 2008 until 2028.

Trujillo, 67, who earned an associate degree in early childhood education, a bachelor’s degree in public administration and a law degree from Seattle University School of Law, came to New Mexico from her native Washington state in 2000. Her husband worked for the City of Santa Fe. They have five adult children.

If Trujillo is tapped for Senate Majority Leader it will keep the important role with a Santa Fe lawmaker. ABQ Sen. Mimi Stewart occupies the top leadership position of President Pro Tem. ABQ also holds the majority whip position with Sen. Michael Padilla. 

WOMEN AND POWER 

Trujillo would be the first female Majority Leader, building on the gains women have made at the capitol in recent years. There are now 45 women in the state House--a majority of the 70 seats. In the Senate they hold 16 seats or 38 percent. In total women hold 61 of the 112 seats in the legislature, making New Mexico one of only a few states with majority female governance. In addition, the state has had 16 consecutive years of women governors.

This large female presence is no longer a novelty. In fact, if Trujillo does take power expectations will be high for her to help finally harness the progressive female majority and implement badly needed changes at the troubled Children, Youth and Families Department and also pursue education reform that has stagnated and left the state the worst performing in the nation. 

In the House Trujillo was one of the creators of the Early Childhood Education Department. She also championed historically large pay raises for state teachers, bringing them up to par with neighboring states and then some. She was a sponsor of the Interstate Medical Licensure Compact Act that passed the Senate unanimously but not before it gave Wirth and the trial lawyer lobby headaches.  

TAKING THE HEAT 

Trujillo endured criticism when she abruptly resigned her House seat in 2020 just one month after winning the primary election. She cited financial hardship brought on by the pandemic during which her hours as a working attorney were shaved and her husband was furloughed from his city job. 

She said these hardships gave her no choice but to give up the seat. Today she says she is financially comfortable and receiving a government pension.

As head of the State Regulation and Licensing Department under MLG, Trujillo was responsible for building the regulatory framework for adult-use cannabis, a framework that has received mixed reviews and continues to be overhauled.

HAALAND'S HOPES  

Haaland and Hull

The next Senate Majority Leader will set the floor agenda and lead parliamentary strategy during debate. That leader will be one of the keys to success for the new governor to be elected in November, widely predicted to be Democrat Deb Haaland with Republican Gregg Hull fighting that narrative. Said one Roundhouse veteran: 

Haaland has already established a relationship with House Speaker Javier Martinez. The Senate's factionalism makes doing that there more challenging. But like Senator Wirth, Trujillo knows the ins and outs of policy and the senate which is going to be crucial for the incoming administration. There is wariness about the transition because some senators felt bullied by MLG and her relationship with the senate suffered. They don't want a repeat.

THE GOP VIEW 

Trujillo seems acceptable to Republican senators even if they have no say in who is selected. Sen. Jim Townsend of Artesia served with Trujillo when they were both in the House. He said of her when she resigned her House seat:

She is polite, nice and professional. We have not always agreed on policy and procedure but I always looked forward to working with her and I hope she has the same feelings across the aisle working with us.

FOLLOW THE MONEY 

Sen. Muñoz

It is the Democratic senators who will make the pick and signs are good for the first term Santa Fe senator. 

Moderate Dem Sen. Moe Maestas donated $1,500 to Trujillo's 2024 campaign fund and progressive Senator Stewart came with $2,500. Outgoing leader Wirth contributed $3,500. Sen. George Muñoz, a moderate Dem and chair of the influential Senate Finance Committee on which Trujillo serves, was another donor to her campaign kitty. He gave $1,500. 

Those senators or their committees donated cash to other senators as well, but if those who donated to Trujillo are with her at the November caucus she would not need many more votes (Sens. Duhigg and Sedillo Lopez?) to take the prize.

The business community is closely watching the coming shift of power in the Senate and Trujillo is not discouraging their support. Her 2024 donors include $11,000 from oil giant Chevron, $1,500 from tobacco company Altria and $3,000 from Anheuser-Busch.

Those donations from corporate America and certain senators may draw heat in some quarters but Trujillo's boosters say it's all part of building those bridges. 

Veronica Garcia, a longtime NM education leader who served as Superintendent of Santa Fe public schools when Trujillo sat on the school board, says of the woman who may become the state's newest power player: 

Over and over she’s demonstrated finesse and diplomacy and is able to get things done.  

READER VOX POPULI

Reader Bob Ferguson writes: 

I want to thank you and the ABQ Journal's Dan Boyd for your political commentary at the recent AARP town hall meeting in ABQ. 

For most races, I vote for the least objectionable candidate--the lesser of two evils. And while I am a lifelong moderate Republican, I vote for the person and not the party. For our gubernatorial election, I am firmly in Gregg Hull’s camp. I know Hull has a steep climb to defeat Deb Haaland as she has name recognition going for her as a former US House representative and Secretary of the Interior. But I see her as an “empty vessel” and not very smart. She can’t seem to think on her feet very well and has her team do all her talking. I think she will win the election, but for the life of me I cannot understand why anyone would vote for her. Hull describes himself as moderate and as such I think he needs to publicly distance himself from Trump and the far right MAGA. This state is so deeply blue that unless he does so, I don’t think he has a chance. I give his campaign money every month, something I have never done before and which shows how badly I want him elected. 

Reader John Locke writes: 

Hi Joe, I read your Aug. 17  post and my reaction to the “poll numbers games”  was “I knew it." I got the text from the Haaland campaign like others but didn’t scratch my head. I read your post and knew that the campaign citing a six point deficit for Haaland was BS. My second reaction to the text was annoyance. Is this how it’s going to be, Ms. Haaland? You are going to lie to us when it suits your fancy? I know politics is a dirty business but this deliberate lie looks like an unforced error. Let’s hope we see no more of this kind of nonsense. 

TRY 17 NOT SIX 

From the Archive: 2008

Haaland's campaign continues to hammer away in fund-raising missives about that purported six point polling deficit but reality is catching up. The first independent public poll--although conducted on line and not with in person phone calls--shows what is obvious to the political community--Haaland has a considerable lead over Republican Gregg Hull. 

The BSP Research survey has her 17 points ahead of Republican Gregg Hull--41% to 24% with 27 percent undecided. 

The poll among 800 registered voters was conducted July 22 to August 8 and has a margin of error of 3.5 percent. BSP focuses on reaching Hispanics and immigrants. In that regard Haaland had about 40 percent support from both Anglos and Hispanics. Hull was at 30 percent with white voters and 16 percent with Hispanics. 

The killer for the Republicans remains the ABQ metro where the survey showed Haaland ahead of Hull by 26 percent. Until the GOP can start cracking that nut their fortunes for any statewide victories remain dismal.

Nothing seems to stop Haaland's fund-raising mavens from fudging the numbers as they troll for out-of state dollars where news of the lopsided race in Haaland's favor doesn't penetrate but still annoys many of her supporters here. Soon after the survey was released the money chasers were again using the GOP poll showing her behind. Maybe the rigorous and comprehensive ABQ Journal poll set to be released this Sunday will change their tune. The melody is getting old. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics. 

Hull and Haaland

The sleepy '26 gubernatorial race is about to be jolted awake. Whether it returns to a coma-like condition may be dependent on the severity of the jolt. 

At the end of the month--August 30 to be precise--the ABQ Journal will release their first poll of the contest featuring Democrat Deb Haaland and Republican Gregg Hull. 

The paper's Santa Fe bureau chief Dan Boyd and veteran pollster Brian Sanderoff of Research and Polling, who has conducted the Journal surveys since the 80's, tell us that the August poll will be the first of two. The second will drop in October when early voting for the November 3 election is well underway.

But it will be the first batch of numbers that will be most critical, coming as they will during a summer-long polling vacuum in which no unbiased scientific surveys have been released. That's unusual but not unexpected given the conventional wisdom that the race is a nonstarter with Haaland in the driver's seat and the expense of conducting solid polling.

Without any public polling the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball have already rated the race as solid for the Democrat--their best possible rating. So Hull desperately needs to reset the early narrative. The Journal survey, widely regarded as a gold standard for polling, offers him that chance but also the prospect of a punch to the jaw. 

PROPPING IT UP 

Hull tried to prop things up with an in-house mid-July poll that actually showed him beating Haaland 49 to 43 percent. However, the fine print said that happened after voters were presented with an "informed ballot." In other words, it was a push poll conducted by Republican firm McLaughlin and Associates who filled the heads of respondents with dire images of Haaland and her policies and then asked voters' their choice for governor. 

That hasn't stopped Hull from using the survey in his fund-raising and has Haaland--somewhat ironically--also employing that same polling to boost her own campaign war chest. 

While her private polling very likely shows her with a secure lead--her campaign strategy indicates as much--Haaland is using her six point deficit in the Hull poll to try to put fear into the hearts of supporters. Take a look:  

Right now, we are building a grassroots movement to protect working families and fight for our shared values across New Mexico, but with Fox News calling our race a top pickup opportunity and a new poll showing me trailing my Republican opponent by 6 points, we need every single person reading this email to chip in. 

Hull released his poll on the socials July 22. In a campaign memo sent July 29 Haaland's campaign manager, Dylan McArthur, said the race was secure for Haaland:

99 days out from the general election, Deb Haaland is in a strong position to win November’s election. . .  with a united Democratic coalition, growing support among independent voters, and demonstrated strength in every region of New Mexico. . .Haaland has built the broadest coalition in the race, is expanding the electorate, and enters the general election with significant momentum and a clear path to victory.

Meanwhile, we've received inquiries from readers scratching their heads over Haaland's fund-raising pitches citing those misleading polling numbers. Their confusion should end with release of the Journal's survey. 

The poll will be conducted with the most reliable (and expensive) methods--including in-person phone interviews with prospective voters. No text messaging, robocalls, internet chats or other sometimes questionable methods to obtain a true reading of the race. And that seems more essential after the polling controversies in the August Wisconsin and Michigan primaries. 

A bad poll for Hull would not be the end of the line but the hit to his already anemic fund-raising could be severe. A surprise that puts the former Rio Rancho mayor anywhere in the vicinity of a possible upset will come as a shock and could set Haaland back on her heels at least momentarily. 

Good polling provides clarity and context for where a race stands at a specific time. Given the current void accompanied by misinformation, the August 30 Journal survey will be more welcome than usual. 

FIGHTING UPHILL 

(Eric Lucero photo)

Several of the top Republican candidates gathered Saturday for the opening of Gregg Hull's campaign headquarters on San Pedro NE in ABQ. 

Despite their long odds for success, the hopefuls came with their game faces and seemed ready for the uphill battle ahead. 

Starting from the left in the posted photo, there is state Sen. David Gallegos, a native of Mora county who represents the SE oil counties of Eddy and Chaves. Gallegos, who worked 30 years in the natural gas industry, is the GOP lieutenant governor nominee and a popular member of the Senate where he has served since 2021. He balances the GOP Guv ticket both geographically and ethnically. 

Ndidiamaka "Didi" Okpareke faces a difficult task in unseating Democratic US Rep. Melanie Stansbury in the 1st Congressional District centered in the ABQ metro. No Republican has won the seat since Heather Wilson was re-elected for a final time in 2006. 

The Cook Partisan Voter Index for the district is D+7. That means that in the last two presidential elections the district's results were 7 points more Democratic than the national average. 

Still, Okpareke (pronounced oak-PAH-reh-kay) has an engaging background that could find appeal among the district's diverse voters. Her campaign says:  

Ndidiamaka Okpareke (you can call her “Didi” for short) was born from immigrants who came to the United States from Nigeria. . .after surviving the destructive Biafran war in Nigeria from 1967 to 1970. . . New Mexico has been Didi’s home for almost 30 years. She’s lived in Albuquerque since 1997, attending Sandia High School and graduating from UNM. In 2016, Didi became a business owner. . .and started Olive Tree Compounding Pharmacy. Throughout her career as a pharmacist, she’s witnessed the essential healthcare needs of New Mexicans. . .Didi is a mother of three boys.

Interesting indeed, but not a background that Stansbury will care to expose to her 1.2 million TikTok followers as she seeks re-election to the seat she first won at a special election in 2021. 

GOP US Senate candidate Larry Marker, pictured between Okpareke and Gregg Hull, is a native of Hobbs who grew up in Roswell. He an unabashed Trumper who got off to a slow start. Marker had to qualify for the November ballot by running as a Republican write-in candidate for the US Senate seat held by Sen. Bey Ray Lujan who is seeking a second term and who Marker is challenging. 

Marker has shown himself adept at landing blows against the state's junior senator but this race is another very steep climb. No Republican has been elected to the Senate from New Mexico since Pete Domenici won re-election in 2002. But a debate between the fiery Marker and the more sedate Lujan would still be must-see TV. Will we get one?

Finally, there's Gregg Hull who will need those thumbs he has pointed up in the photo to stay up during what promises to be a withering attack campaign against him. He does know what it's like to win, having done so as Rio Rancho mayor three times and again in this year's hotly contested GOP governor primary. He'll need to keep that winning past in mind during the turbulent days to come.

THE BOTTOM LINES 

In our Aug. 3 report we said that state Sen. Harold Pope, Jr. would have been the state's first African-American on a major party gubernatorial ticket. Pope, who lost his bid to become the Democratic lieutenant governor nominee when state Dems selected Stephanie Garcia Richard, would have been the first Democratic Black nominee on a gubernatorial ticket. Ant Thornton, also African-American, was the 2022 Republican nominee for governor--a first for that party and the state. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics. 

We could discuss endlessly why a state with the well-deserved nickname the "Land of Enchantment" has undergone one of the greatest periods of population stagnation in its over 400 year history. Instead let's focus on one aspect of that stagnation impacting our politics. That would be how folks here are so much older than just a few decades ago.

Our state--one of the nation's youngest when I disembarked from a Greyhound bus here in 1971--is now one of the oldest, joining the top ten of fastest graying states. 

According to U.S. Census Bureau estimates, 21.1% of New Mexico's population is currently 65 or older. This reflects a sharp upward trend over the past few decades, making New Mexico one of the fastest-aging states in the country. And there's no end in sight. UNM population projections say the percentage of seniors in the state will hit nearly 25 percent in 2040 or one in four residents. 

How vast a change we've witnessed is revealed by Census numbers from 2000 when only only 11.7 percent of the NM population was 65 or over. That jumped to 13.2 percent in 2010, ranking us 35th in the nation for oldsters. When the Great Recession struck it accelerated the depopulation and aging trend with the number of seniors pole vaulting in 2020 to 18.5 percent and now we are at 21.1 percent.

POLITICAL IMPACT 

So why have New Mexico's politics become significantly more Blue even as the population dramatically ages? Shouldn't it be the opposite or at least less pronounced? After all seniors are traditionally more conservative? Well, as former NM territorial Governor Lew Wallace explained long ago: "All calculations based on experience elsewhere fail in New Mexico." Let's take a look: 

--In states like Florida or Arizona, much of the senior growth is driven by wealthy, predominantly conservative retirees migrating from other states. In New Mexico, a far higher proportion of that growth comes from long-time residents aging in place. New Mexico’s senior cohort reflects the state's broader population: significantly Hispanic and Native American. Nationally and locally, non-white older adults vote Democratic at much higher rates than non-Hispanic white seniors. Also, long-term local residents often have decades-long political ties to the state's Democratic Party or labor unions. 

Older in NM

--For older voters the most critical issues are often healthcare access, prescription drug costs, Medicare, and Social Security. New Mexico’s dominant Dems have emphasized Medicaid expansion, state-subsidized healthcare coverage, and lower prescription costs. That resonates directly with the senior demographic. 

--The senior population growth is heavily concentrated in urban and suburban centers like the ABQ metro and Santa Fe. Seniors living there lean more progressive than the state's rural seniors, reflecting the broader political divide seen across the country. 

--The political math in New Mexico gives Democrats a big buffer. Registered D's make up roughly 40% of the electorate compared to 31% for Republicans and 28% for independents. Because voter turnout among seniors is higher than among the younger set, the state's Democratic-leaning senior base turns out reliably in most elections.

Still, the graying of New Mexico has not stopped efforts to improve the woeful conditions that too many of the state's children live in. Free universal early child care and free college tuition have been put into law and the dysfunctional Children Youth and Families Department (CYFD) is now getting the political attention necessary to see a turnaround. 

While New Mexico's growing number of grandpas and grandmas have their healthcare cushions, it's not coming at the expense of those who hope to be around long enough to join their ranks. 

BOOMERS RULE  

Govs. Johnson, MLG & Martinez

When it comes to the top job in La Politica the baby boomers are on a roll and may very well continue. 

Dem governor nominee and front-runner Deb Haaland, 65, was born in 1960 in the middle of the baby boom ('46-'64). 

Gregg Hull, 60, her GOP opponent, was born in 1966 and claims membership in Generation X ('65-'80).

The Boomers have held the Governor's office for all this century with Governors Johnson, Richardson, Martinez and Lujan Grisham. Does the generational difference matter? It does to Generation Z ('97-2012) who disagree with many of their boomer elders on key social and economic issues, including Medicare for all. 

In New Mexico many of the young left also want the state to buy out PNM, the state's largest electric utility, and slap a moratorium on all data center developments like the controversial Project Jupiter. Dem nominee Haaland does not support either position. 

ENDORSING HULL

Former Gov. Gary Johnson, 74, is still around, enjoying the good life in Taos and endorsing candidates for Governor. In this year's GOP primary he endorsed Duke Rodriguez who served in Johnson's cabinet in the 1990's. Now Johnson, who bolted the GOP to twice run for president under the Libertarian party banner, has come aboard with primary winner Hull: 

As New Mexico's former governor, I'd like to think I know what it takes to lead this state with fiscal discipline and common sense. Gregg Hull built a business from the ground up, then spent 12 years proving as Rio Rancho's mayor that experienced leadership delivers real results — safer streets, a growing economy, and a city other communities look to as a model. New Mexico needs that same kind of leadership at the state level, and that's why I'm proud to endorse Gregg Hull for governor.

Hull, of course, welcomed the endorsement and said folks who like it should consider giving his campaign $25. That's all? Gary and his well-off buddies leave that much in the tip jar at Starbucks (or should). 

Shoot a little higher, Gregg, you just might hit a bigger target.  

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UPDATE: The ABQ City Council Monday evening said the panel has "dismissed" the proposed increase in the gross receipts tax. 

Affordability is the buzzword for the '26 campaign but that falls on deaf ears among some members of the ABQ City Council. Two councilors in particular, Council President Klarissa Peña, a Democrat, and Republican Brook Bassan have launched a last-minute push to raise taxes on city residents.

The two councilors have given up getting a majority of the nine member council to approve an increase in  the Gross Receipts Tax--the council defeated two attempts this year on 5 to 4 votes--but now they're pushing the council to place the hike on the November ballot and asking voters to tax themselves. And there's a rush to do it. The deadline for submitting the resolution is August 25.  

The tax hike would mean the GRT would go up by .04875 percent and take the overall rate in the city to 8.113 percent or $8.11 on a $100 purchase. 

That high rate is viewed as especially onerous for low and middle income residents who spend nearly all their income on living expenses. Higher income households spend a smaller proportion on everyday services with a significant portion of their income going toward savings and investments that escape the tax.

On the same day the councilors released their new plan for increasing taxes Mayor Keller came with a release reminding residents that the city's minimum wage will increase from $12 an hour to $13 on January 1. He said ABQ is "living through a historic cost of living crisis." 

If this was meant to soften the blow of raising taxes on low-income workers, it fell flat. If there is an affordability crisis why consider taking money out of their pockets with a tax hike?

The increase is opposed by small businesses that have long cited the GRT as an inhibitor to economic development. In fact, MLG and the legislature in recent years have passed two small cuts in the state's portion of the GRT which is now 4.875 percent, but municipalities like ABQ still have room to raise their rate.

THE REASONING 

Councilor Peña

Bassan and Peña insist that while the city has an annual budget of over $1.5 billion including federal funds, the city can't finance higher pay for city employees and that it is becoming difficult to find new hires. If it gets on the ballot and is approved by voters, the tax could bring in $113 million a year. From the councilors release: 

If approved by voters, 53 percent of the revenue would be dedicated to municipal operations and maintenance, including employee wages. These funds will help address compensation gaps, strengthen recruitment and retention efforts. . .The remaining 47 percent. . .would be dedicated to community enhancement projects, including parks, trails, transportation infrastructure, public safety facilities, cultural and recreational facilities, and other capital improvements This portion of the funding is dedicated for 21 years, ensuring focused investment in long-term community priorities 

The city has some 6,000 employees who hold some of the best paying and most stable jobs in the state, replete with medical insurance, guaranteed vacations, paid overtime, predictable cost of living raises and generous pensions that make the ones in the private sector look third-rate.

Even as ABQ's population has actually declined in the last decade from 559,000 in 2016 to 555,000 today and the information age has brought vast efficiency improvements, the number of city employees has not declined. That needs explaining before voters are asked to administer the self-punishment of a tax increase.

(We didn't mention the skyrocketing overtime pay at APD, a systemic issue the city's political class has failed to address for years.)

A POOL AND A TAX 

Councilor Bassan

There could be another sore spot with voters. Councilor Bassan has stated that she wants to utilize the tax to finish building the North Domingo Baca Aquatic Center in her NE Heights district. The original cost estimate was $32 million but has since soared to $75 million, calling into question the need for such a facility. 

It's estimated that over $35 million is still needed to finish construction which includes a competitive 50 meter lap pool. So voters might ask, "why should we increase the price on everyday needs for a giant swimming pool?"

Mayor Keller and the Council have done little to realize cost savings that could be implemented to avoid the tax increase even as the city projects lower revenue in the years ahead. The city government has been unable to cope with a long-term stagnant economy that is at the root of its financial difficulty and have no comprehensive restructuring plan that would make delivery of city services more efficient and less costly. Instead they are opting for tax increases that could discourage growth and compound the problem.

Bernalillo county government also has their heads in the sand. Thanks to various tax increases, they now have a bloated budget of $1.09 billion. 

The city's population is 560,000. Only 107,000 residents live in the county for a total BernCo population of 667,000. Many of the services provided by these two separate governments could be consolidated, resulting in significant cost savings. Consolidation would require approval from both city and county voters. It has been over two decades since voters last rejected that proposal.  

Restructuring, consolidation, efficiency. Those should be the buzzwords for Councilors Peña and Bassan before they plead with voters to bail them out of the financial inertia they preside over at Government Center. 

Correction: In a first draft we reported that ABQ Councilor Telles voted for a GRT increase. She did not.   

THE POPE SCARE

It took a final-hours scramble by the state's Democratic party establishment last week to thwart the political ambitions of ABQ state Sen. Harold Pope, Jr. He was defeated in his bid to become the party's lieutenant governor nominee by Stephanie Garcia Richard in a close vote that saw her win 255 votes from the party's State Central Committee to Pope's 218. Two other hopefuls received four votes. 

The committee battle was joined when Maggie Toulouse Oliver, who had won the lieutenant governor nomination at the June primary, withdrew for health reasons. She had defeated Pope in that primary 80-20 percent.

Pope would have been the first African-American on a Democratic gubernatorial ticket but Garcia Richard and governor nominee Deb Haaland will now be the first all-female ticket. (African-American Ant Thornton was the GOP nominee for Lt. Governor in 2022.

Pope put on an impressive campaign, full of unapologetic progressivism backed by a career in the Air Force and his Roundhouse experience.

Garcia Richard brought two terms of experience as the Commissioner of Public Lands, a statewide office that is only second in power to that of the governor.

Haaland openly backed Garcia Richard and took a hit over the close vote. Critics argued Garcia Richard should have easily walked away with the win and when she didn't it exposed Haaland's less than firm grip on the party apparatus. 

Gov. Lujan Grisham and Rep. Leger Fernandez were among the Dem heavies coming with last minute endorsements of Garcia Richard. That helped put her over the top and avoid an outright embarrassment  for Haaland. 

Sen. Pope

While Pope may be going away, his candidacy sparked a vigorous debate in the party. His support of universal basic income for lower income households and his backing of the state buying PNM, the state's largest electric utility, won him raves from the progressives, some who now identify as democratic socialists. 

As a governor Haaland could have her hands full negotiating between the two wings of her party. Pope could be an ally at the Roundhouse and is expressing willingness to work with her. He certainly has her attention. 

If Garcia ultimately becomes lieutenant governor--and the odds heavily favor that outcome--the prize will come with a harsh penalty. Unless she can break the mold, like all previous lieutenant governors she will be relegated to the political shadows. But it is comfortable there with a full-time salary and staff and plenty of funerals and graduations to attend.

This is The Home of New Mexico Politics 

Labels: ABQ Gross Receipts Tax, Councilor Bassan, Councilor Peña, Harold Pope Jr., Stephanie Garcia Richard

If they're going to move the New Mexico presidential primary to February 15, 2008 instead of holding it late in the nominating cycle in June, how about a favorite son candidate (or is it favorite daughter now)? 

As the fourth state to go up to bat under a Democratic National Committee recommendation, a local yokel would have a shot at first place but could spoil the party for the national heavyweights who will be trekking here if the calendar is finalized by the DNC next month. 

The starting states would be: South Carolina, January 22, 2028; Nevada, February 1, 2028; New Hampshire, February 8, 2028; New Mexico, February 15, 2028; Michigan, February 22, 2028; Virginia, February 29, 2028

How about Deb Haaland for president? We know. Say it ain't so, Joe! We would if every sitting governor since Gary Johnson in the 90's hadn't toyed with the national spotlight. Dem Bill Richardson ran a serious campaign for the nation's top job and Johnson secured the Libertarian Party presidential nomination in 2016.  

How about MLG? She's been pushing the hardest for the earlier primary, citing our status as majority-minority border state with Hispanics and Native Americans dominating. The Governor's national star was tarnished when President Biden quietly rejected her for a cabinet post but if in '28 the then former governor is looking for work, what's to stop her?

Haaland still has an election to deal with in the here and now before she gets starry-eyed over her national prospects, if she does at all. But her path to the governor's office is looking like a well-lighted stroll under a full moon. With less than 100 days to go Polymarket bettors give her an 89 percent chance of victory. Noted political predictor Larry Sabato and his Crystal Ball has joined the pundits at DC's Cook Political report in ranking her race against Republican Gregg Hull "safe Democratic." 

That's as good as it gets and unless Hull can shake her loose by forcing a major mistake, she is going to keep smiling and hawking salsa on the socials before getting overly serious about policy. Certainly the political consultants are not going to let her stray. After raising $14 million her campaign has plenty of them who remind her each day to look busy but say little. 

'08 AND '28

An early Dem presidential primary was actually conducted here in February 2008 when Hillary Clinton enjoyed a very narrow win over Barack Obama. (We filed this report in the wee morning hours before Hillary put it away a day later.)

The primary was novel but not without problems. The state Dem Party decided to provide only one polling place for the entire city of Rio Rancho. Voters stood in line for a long wait scowling and taking the name of Dem Party Chair Brian Colon in vain in a variety of ways--most of them starting with the letter "F."

Dem Sen. Mark Kelly is thinking about running for president in '28. He's from just across the way in Arizona so we would put him up near the top of the list of possible candidates who would benefit from an early NM primary. But he full field has yet to form and the only certainties for an early primary are that every candidate will visit Barelas Coffee House for the mandatory enchilada lunch (posole if they insist) and the TV ads will be ubiquitous.

THE CBS SHOCKER

Speaking of campaign TV ads, in the future KRQE-TV may be selling fewer of them and cheaper. 

That's just one of the possible impacts on the station after dropping their affiliation with the CBS Network, one that it had since 1953 and that will now go to Hearst-owned ABC affiliate KOAT.

KRQE owner Nexstar did not want to pay the CBS asking price to keep the affiliation. KOAT channel 7 grabbed the opportunity and starting in August will broadcast CBS programming on a digital channel easily accessible over the air, on cable and satellite. (Other CBS affiliates were also dropped by Nexstar.)

The seismic shift will see the FOX Network, already affiliated with Nexstar and KRQE, replace CBS programming along with an increased local news presence. (Station announcement here.)

The problem is FOX lacks the star and ratings power of CBS which could mean lower ratings for primetime and local news. That in turn could mean a loss in revenue leading to layoffs and other cutbacks in the months ahead. 

While KRQE gets weekly Sunday NFL games from Fox, the most valuable piece of real estate in broadcast TV, the CBS NFL schedule now moves to KOAT, ramping up their advertising power and putting the station in rotation for the highly popular Super Bowl. 

CBS is also home to the NCAA college basketball tournament, Masters golf, the highly-rated 60 minutes, the CBS Evening News and CBS Morning News. All of that plus the CBS primetime entertainment line-up--the most highly rated among the broadcast networks--will now be at KOAT. Political and other advertising will flow to those marquee programs at the expense of KRQE. That could easily make the dual-affiliated KOAT the state's dominant and most profitable station in the state.

As for KRQE's touted news expansion to fill the crater in their schedule, unless the station is going to spend much more on news, they could dilute the product and earn only anemic ratings while suffering dramatic ad losses because of the CBS departure.

THE KOAT ADVANTAGE 

Meantime KOAT can simply simulcast its 10 p.m. and other news broadcasts on their CBS channel with no extra expense and take advantage of popular CBS lead-in programs as KRQE currently does and which has helped make them first in the local news ratings. If played right, KOAT could easily become the new leader.

While broadcast TV has been in decline with half the audience streaming programming and not relying on traditional TV, the business is still highly profitable. For example, political ads are mostly aimed at voting audiences over 50 and that remains the demographic most loyal to broadcast television.

New Mexico's contests for governor and the 2nd Congressional District are going to attract millions of dollars of ads in the coming weeks. KRQE's CBS loss could be felt in the ratings by the time Labor Day arrives.  

For now KRQE will work to stop the bleeding and avoid a doom spiral where lower ratings lead to fewer ads, less revenue and a significant cutback in their news department. They will also have to deal with employees now eying KOAT as a port in the storm as the winds of change upend the local TV landscape. 

ELECTRIC SOCIALISM

The ABQ chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) endorsed Sen. Harold Pope for Lt. Governor. In a related matter, we get this:

Joe, I read your comments referring to Senator Pope’s proposal for NM to purchase PNM as “socialism.” There are plenty of governments including Farmington, New Mexico that own their own utilities. And many big cities including Austin, San Antonio and Omaha. Public ownership incentivizes a utility to invest in conservation rather than expansion of utility infrastructure, precisely to contain consumer rates. Farmington’s utility offers electricity rates that are historically 20% to 31% lower than the national average and neighboring utility cooperatives. It’s a proven model that frankly we should be moving towards as a state, rather than the monopoly investor owned electric utility model. In my community El Paso Electric is seeking a 50 rate increase! 

Good points but taking over a small electric company in Farmington does not compare with the government of New Mexico buying the state's largest utility and running its day-to-day affairs. One can only hope if it ever happened the management at CYFD would be prohibited from taking part. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics

Labels: CBS, Deb Haaland, Gregg Hull, KOAT, KRQE, Larry Sabato, MLG, Nexstar