Haaland

Deb Haaland easily overpowered Sam Bregman at the Democratic party preprimary convention at Ruidoso this weekend, besting the BernCo District Attorney by winning sthe votes of 733 delegates for 73.52 percent of the vote. Bregman managed only 264 votes or 26.48 percent. The lopsided decisive victory cemented Haaland's status as the clear front-runner in the race for the '26 Democratic gubernatorial nomination that will be decided at the June 2 primary election.

Complete preprimary results here.  

The result was not unexpected but the landslide margin was important for Haaland whose candidacy got off to an uneven start with lots of movement, but little substance and some internal strife. She has since steadied the ship but Bregman has rocked the boat with his repeated challenges for her to debate him. There also has been a whisper campaign against her--with the help of Republicans--that claims she does not have the smarts for the state's top job.

The preprimary win gives Haaland, the former Sec. of Interior under President Biden, the chance to head back on the trail with some air beneath her wings. Her campaign manager declared:

Her performance is a testament to the strong, winning campaign Deb continues to build. Our campaign has the winning message, the strongest and most experienced candidate, the best team, and the momentum to deliver a decisive victory in June and again in November.

Bregman's performance will be seen by party pros as nearly a death rattle and he will have much work to do to prevent that perception from locking in during the final weeks of the campaign. Following release of the preprimary results late Monday, he went to work:

The people of New Mexico, not a room full of party power brokers, will decide who leads this state. What we’re seeing across New Mexico is a campaign bringing in new voters, new voices, and people who know the old political playbook is leaving too many families behind. We checked the convention box. Now we’re taking our message directly to voters across the state. 

Bregman

While it's true that the preprimary does not signal an automatic primary, over the many years we have covered them we find that the Dem preprimary conventions are more reflective of the party as a whole while the Republican preprimary meets are less so.

Haaland's internal polling is obviously holding up well or she might not be so dismissive of Bregman's calls to debate her. (There is a quasi-debate/forum scheduled for the candidates May 2. Both will be there.) And she has plenty of money--if deployed wisely--to considerably outspend Bregman.  

Bregman came into the convention with a large TV buy behind him in which he attacked ICE and promised to prosecute any ICE agents who break state law. He has also rolled out an in-depth campaign  platform and been traveling the state extensively. But none of it stuck with the progressive Dems--who are the nominating wing of  the party--and whose love affair with fellow progressive Haaland has been long and ardous. That she would be the first Native American woman Governor sends them swooning.

For Bregman, an old pro with some old pros by his side, it is time to explore new paths. For Haaland the directive is to trod the straight and narrow road that is keeping her with a handsome lead. 

SOS RACE

The Dem nomination for Secretary of State is still up for grabs after the preprimary but Santa Fe County Clerk Katharine Clark has to be breathing easier after her 46%-36% win over Dona Ana County Clerk Amanda López Askin and third place finisher Sonya Smith who received 18 percent and will have to get more petition signatures to be on the primary ballot. 

This is a tight race between two ambitious, capable and politically astute women. The preprimary signals the edge that Clark may have in ABQ and Santa Fe where she has media exposure, but López Askin has that Las Cruces base and the Hispanic heritage that is so often a vote-getter in statewide contests.

Rather than giving us a front-runner for the SOS nomination, the preprimary affirmed that this race appears destined to go down to the wire. 

LT. GOV. CONTEST 

Speaking of SOS, the current one, Maggie Toulouse Oliver, is termed out and seeking the Dem nomination for lieutenant governor as is ABQ state Sen. Harold Pope. MTO had a solid 58 to 42 percent preprimary win over Pope but did not quite put him away. She will need a healthy media spend to do the job. 

Pope would be the state's first Black lt. governor. That and his legislative experience has made him plenty of fans in the party. 

There is also the issue of an all-female ticket. If Haaland and MTO were paired, they would be the first. In today's era this may not matter greatly but concern about having a gender balanced ticket may have helped Pope. MTO remains the heavy favorite in the June primary but Pope lives to fight another day. 

LAND OFFICE RESULTS 

Juan Sanchez

Sen. Martin Heinrich has been trying to take over the state land office for. . .well. . . a very long time. He went all-in for a Dem candidate friend in '16 but came up empty. This time he's backing his former political aide Juan Sanchez who is off to a decent start. 

Sanchez, of central NM, scored 56 percent of the delegates, crushing fellow rancher Jonas Moya of the eastside who did not make it on the ballot with his 7 percent. And there's more. . .  

Santa Fe area state Rep. Matthew McQueen, a darling of the environmental left, came with 37 percent and is not going away. Ironically, much of McQueen's base voters are the same as Heinrich's, an enviro senator if there ever was one. 

McQueen is a well-regarded state rep. Sanchez is a sharp politico with a possible ethnic advantage working for him if Jonas does not get on the ballot by getting more signatures.

If this stays a two way race keep a lookout for the fund-raising numbers. They could tell the tale.  

CONGRESS

The state's three Democratic US House members all ran unopposed for a ballot position--District one Rep. Melanie Stansbury; District 2 Rep. Gabe Vasquez and District 3 Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez. The Stansbury and TLF districts are ranked Safe Democratic here and the Vasquez district is Lean Democratic.

US Sen. Ben Ray Lujan, seeking a second term, was challenged by socialist Dem Matt Dodson. Lujan brushed it off by getting 86 percent support. Lujan is unopposed in the general election but the GOP is trying to field a write-in candidate.

This the Home of New Mexico Politics. 

Former Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull reset the race for the '26 GOP gubernatorial nomination in Ruidoso Saturday by chalking up a formidable 57 percent preprimary convention win in the five way race for placement on the June 2 primary ballot. 

(All convention results here.) 

Hull, who received 239 of the 420 delegate votes, saw his campaign get off to a soft start as he sometimes acted uncertain about his commitment to the contest. Now he appears to have hit his stride with the significant convention win and the announcement that he has raised $400,000 for the battle ahead.

And a battle it promises to be as long Duke Rodriguez lives up to his pledge to spend upwards of $2 million of his personal fortune to be competitive. 

He has already purchased expensive full-page newspaper ads but now the true test arrives.

Turner

With a not unexpected poor third place showing of 39 votes (9.8 percent) among the delegates, self-described outsider Rodriguez is now on his own. Any flinching from his spending pledge could crush momentum and his candidacy. 

Rodriguez had already collected enough signatures (and beat back legal challenges) to qualify for the ballot without needing the required 20 percent of the primary delegate support. 

His backers say his position is somewhat similar to that of Mark Ronchetti in 2022. He also had little appeal to convention delegates and finished in last place but still went on to handily win that year's nomination.

Complicating the race is the respectable showing by ABQ businessmen Doug Turner, who has been out of sight and out of mind since his unsuccessful Guv run in 2010 when Susana Martinez won the Republican nomination.

This time around Turner secured the support of two former state GOP chairmen--Harvey Yates and Ryan Cangiolosi--to help vault him to a second place preprimary finish with 104 votes for 24.76 percent. 

Longtime GOP fund-raiser Andrea Goff is also with Turner who fought himself into the race with a late entry.

Turner's sleeper candidacy has awakened, but if not fully roused he and Hull could spoil each other's chances. Both represent the establishment wing of the party. If they split that vote and Rodriguez goes on to catch fire, it could hand the cannabis tycoon the win. 

WHERE'S TRUMP? 

Where is the outright Trump candidate? There is none. Neither Turner or Hull--moderate Republicans--nor outsider Rodriguez are looking to him for support. And Trump forces are not looking to win the state in November where the president's approval rating is below 40 percent, according to recent surveys.  

DUKE'S DETRACTORS 

Rodriguez

Meanwhile Duke detractors are busy working him over in the wake of the convention, dismissing his effort as a "vanity candidacy," with one GOP Alligator telling us the convention shows Rodriguez's support is "an inch wide and a quarter-inch deep." They assert he will ultimately be derailed by unresolved legal questions over his residency and that the GOP must jump off his ship now or risk disaster.

Rodriguez has struggled with those legal challenges but has prevailed in two lawsuits. Also, his often ebullient temperament has drawn criticism. 

But unlike Rodriguez, Hull and Turner are seen as comparatively colorless candidates who lack the charisma, name ID and energy that the 68 year old Rodriguez exhibits. And as the only Hispanic in the three way race, he gets an additional edge. 

The bottom line is that Rodriguez, the early front-runner for the nomination, has lost that status for now and the door has been opened for Hull and Turner. How long that will last may be up to how Rodriguez performs in the days ahead.

THREE WAY

It is a three way GOP Governor race because candidates Steve Lanier and James Ellison received little preprimary support (Lanier 31 votes or 7.38 percent and Ellison 7 votes oor 1.67%) and are not expected to submit the required petition signatures to make up for their failure to garner the required 20 percent support for automatic ballot placement.

LIGHT GUV

As uncertainty looms over the governor's race, Republicans are pleased with the race for #2--the lieutenant governor. They chose Eunice GOP state Senator David Gallegos to carry their flag. Gallegos scored 67%; A. Blair Dunn 19% and Manuel Lardizabal 15 percent. 

The thing about Gallegos is he fits like a glove with whomever the GOP chooses as their gubernatorial nominee. His SE NM roots and Hispanic heritage are ideal for a statewide ticket led by a candidate from the ABQ area---where the three governor candidates are from. He is also an experienced and  knowledgeable legislator.  

ROAD TO CONGRESS

Greg Cunningham

Hopefuls for the state's three congressional seats were also vying for ballot placement at the convention. A mild surprise was the collapse of the candidacy of DEA contractor Jose Orozco in the race for the southern-centered Second Congressional District. Former APD officer and Marine vet Greg Cunningham overwhelmed him by getting 87 percent of delegate support. 

Even if Orozco goes the petition route to get on the June ballot, he will not have money. National Republicans--still hoping to take the seat away from Dem. Rep Gabe Vasquez--will now push Orozco out. The seat is ranked lean Democratic after two wins by Vasquez.

In the First Congressional District in ABQ and some SE NM territory, popular Dem Rep. Melanie Stansbury has few worries. Didi Okpareke beat Steve Jones and will be the GOP nominee. But she is unknown and under-financed. Stansbury was first elected at a June 2021 special election and has become the most vocal member of the state's congressional delegation as well as the most outspoken anti-Trump member.

In the northern Third Congressional District the race will be a bit more interesting. GOP state Rep. Martin  Zamora of Curry county is unchallenged for the nomination. Republicans describe the rancher/businessman as "solid." They believe he will at least test Dem Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez as she seeks a fourth term to represent the sprawling and heavy Dem district. 

MORE STATEWIDE ACTION 

Insiders have long pegged former Assistant State Land Commissioner and Chaves County Commissioner Michael Perry as a top notch choice for the GOP nod for Land Commissioner. He was unchallenged at the convention and will be the nominee. There is a three way race for the Democratic nomination.

In the race for Secretary of State Ramona Goolsby was tapped as the GOP nominee. 

The Dems have two powerhouse candidates competing for their nomination--County Clerks Clark of Santa Fe and López Askin of Dona Ana--and are expected to easily keep the office in their column. 

The GOP nominee for attorney general will be Las Cruces attorney Sam Kane. No Republicans ran for state auditor or treasurer. Incumbent Auditor Joseph Maestas and incumbent Treasurer Laura Montoya get free rides for second terms. 

MONAHAN'S BOTTOM LINES 

Democrats are in good shape to continue their hold on the governorship, all three congressional seats and the statewide executive offices. Look to the state land commission contest for any change to that scenario. 

Democrats also met in Ruidoso Saturday for their preprimary convention. Their vote was done through an absentee process. Results are expected later today.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com)

A spate of good economic news has arrived in New Mexico but it's largely due to bad news from around the globe. 

An ABQ defense firm says they are expanding their workforce to manufacture more drones which have become a weapon of choice in the Ukraine and Middle East wars.

DC is looking to Los Alamos Labs to build even more plutonium pits for nuclear weapons which would send the Labs' already robust budget even higher. 

As always the most important development for the state is the price of oil. This time the price has shot up from the low 60's to the low 70's per barrel because of the Iran oil shock. How long it will stay there, of course, is unknowable but the big price jump makes it timely to look at the impact that war and the oil price has on the state. 

A one-dollar change in the price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has outsized impact on the state budget. New Mexico is now the second-largest oil producer in the U.S.--thanks to the ongoing boom in the Permian Basin in SE NM. 

For every $1.00 increase in the annual average price per barrel of oil, the state's General Fund gains approximately $30 million to $35 million. When you include the tax and royalty money that goes into the Early Childhood Trust Fund and other savings—the total impact can top $45 million per dollar change. 

While a $1.00 increase is a boon, the state is also vulnerable to the downside. If oil drops $10 below the forecast, the state suddenly faces a $300 million to $350 million hole.

State law now requires that "excess" oil and gas revenue (anything above the five-year average) be diverted into permanent funds rather than spent on daily operations. This acts as a shock absorber so the state doesn't have to cut essential services if the price crashes.

The oil boom has been a gift for New Mexico politicos who have legislated with barely any financial pressure throughout the two terms of MLG. Will that continue for the next Governor and legislature? That's out state's most expensive question.

ATTENTION CANDIDATES

We get this from Bernalillo County of special interest to those running for election this year:

Candidate Filing Day for County Commissioner (Districts 1 & 5) County Assessor, County Sheriff and County Probate Judge for the June 2 primary is Tuesday, March 10, from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. at county commission chambers downtown. Candidates must also complete and submit a Bernalillo County Statement of Certain Financial Interests. Candidates should review the Secretary of State's Primary Candidate Guide and required forms prior to filing

WHITMAN WATCH

Whitman

Billionaire Meg Whitman, settling into ABQ as her new residence, continues to make the rounds. After penning a newspaper op-ed about the state's economic future, she has now conducted a half-hour newspaper video interview posted on social media. The discussion did not touch upon any public service ambitions Whitman may have here. 

Reliable sources have told us that Whitman could have her eye on the soon-to-be vacant presidency of the University of New Mexico. 

She is a former CEO of Hewlett Packard, a Republican turned Democrat who served as ambassador to Kenya under President Biden and once ran for governor of California. Her husband, now leads the UNM Neurosurgery department. 

This the Home of New Mexico Politics. 

Councilor Paul Wymer

Rio Rancho, the state's third largest city, chose GOP City Councilor Paul Wymer as their favorite mayoral candidate last night, sending him to an April 14 run-off election with Democrat Alex Piland.

Wymer goes into that second election a heavy favorite after claiming 45 percent of the vote in the Republican leaning city to Piland's 27 percent with four other hopefuls trailing.  

(City election results from around the state here.) 

Wymer, a licensed architect who has lived in the City of Vision since 1984, has been on the Council since 2020 and has been supportive of the policies of current GOP Mayor Gregg Hull who is leaving the post he has held since 2012 to run for Governor. 

Piland, a retired teacher and "proud Latina," is a former chair of the Sandoval county Democratic party.  

Hull leaves city government popular and praised for attracting more business to the city that keeps more tax revenue in local coffers instead of going to ABQ. Affordable housing has continued to expand during his tenure and Rio Rancho has escaped the crime wave that engulfed ABQ.

Alex Piland

Wymer wants to continue to develop the tax base and provide a "balanced' approach to government similar to Hull. Some nicknamed him "the continuity candidate."

Piland, endorsed by the Sierra Club, leans into social issues more than Wymer. 

Rio Rancho's once explosive growth has settled down this past decade but still sports an annual growth rate of about 1.7 percent, much higher than the rest of the state. The current population is about 116,500 only slightly behind Las Cruces with about 119,500 residents. 

TARGETING SAM 

Deb Haaland may be taking a hands-off approach when it comes to directly attacking Sam Bregman before Saturday's important Democratic party preprimary convention but that doesn't mean her supporters and political operatives are sitting on the bench.  Far from it. 

As seen here ProgressNow New Mexico, a longtime progressive group, is out with a blast aimed at the BernCo District Attorney who has made his anti-ICE stance a centerpiece of his campaign:  

For years (as a trial attorney) Sam Bregman' specialty was defending cops accused of crimes against New Mexicans. Now, running for re-election, he suddenly finds his voice against abuse of power? This isn't consistency. It's political convenience. New Mexico deserves better. 

Bregman's long career as a noted trial lawyer before becoming DA is not the only soft spot the Bregman posse is zeroing in on. 

On Saturday state Democrats will hold that preprimary convention at the Inn of the Mountain Gods at Ruidoso. Delegates will vote to place Bregman and Haaland on the June 2 ballot with 20 percent support required, if a candidate is to avoid the embarrassment of being forced to submit extra petition signatures to make the grade. 

Bregman is expected to get to that 20 percent mark but the Haaland camp appears to have its sights set on a "blowout" victory that keeps Bremgan in the 20's and delivers a psychological blow to him. 

While Bregman absorbs the hits before the preprimary, right after he will have to face the dilemma of attacking Haaland directly, if he s to make a race of this. 

That will be tricky because of her popularity in the party and her status as possibly the first Native American to be elected governor. So far Bregman has stepped gingerly, claiming Haaland is scared to debate him but landing few other punches. If he is knocked to the canvas Saturday, his time to come out swinging will grow shorter. 

This the Home of New Mexico Politics. 

Deb Haaland

 Is the debate over debates over? It seems so.

After weeks of chiding from Sam Bregman for not agreeing to debates, Deb Haaland's camp has clarified that there is one debate scheduled and she will take part:

The announcement comes after Haaland agreed to the debate in September 2025. The debate will be hosted by Dukes Up and air statewide on PBS. It will be held on May 2 at CNM’s Smith Brasher Auditorium and is free to the public. “I am excited to share my agenda with New Mexicans. From standing up to Donald Trump to lowering costs to expanding access to health care, I have the most experience of any candidate running for governor. I look forward to meeting my opponent on the stage and letting voters decide." Haaland said. 

It may be the bare minimum but usually when a candidate agrees to at least one debate, it takes the issue off the table. And make no mistake this is the bare minimum. Haaland continues to reject invitations for other debates with Bregman as they battle for the June 2 gubernatorial primary nomination.

Those continued refusals reveal both her weakness and strength. 

Her weakness is fear that she still does not have a grasp on policy nuance that could be her undoing in a face-to-face confrontation. Her strength is her continued popularity among Democratic base voters that make unnecessary any risk-on moves such as debating. 

Haaland's camp tells newsman Daniel Chacón they are rejecting a KRQE-TV invite to engage with Bregman:

Deb has a commanding lead in the race to be New Mexico’s next Governor. That’s because New Mexicans know Deb and understand she can lead our state and fight Trump’s abuse of power. . .Deb has been traveling all over the state and if voters want to hear from her, there are plenty of opportunities to hear from her directly.

Bregman has been spinning internal polling to show that the race is actually tightening but Haaland's avoidance of debates indicate that she sees the contest as still heavily tilting her way and that there are few consequences for refusing to debate the aggressive BernCo District Attorney. 

Bregman has been doing his best to put the heat on. He has focused on Haaland for flying on a private jet in 2014 with Dem Guv candidate Gary King that was chartered by convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. But the story does not seem to have legs--despite a push poll conducted by Bregman that showed otherwise. 

The stymied Bregman did come with some of his best lines in reacting to Haaland's rejection of the KRQE debate:

(Voters are) asking for answers about public safety, about accountability, and about how we make sure predators like Epstein never find protection or proximity to power in our state. If you want to lead New Mexico, you don’t avoid the biggest stage in the state. You show up. You debate. You put your record and your ideas side by side and let voters decide.

BOMBASTIC VS. PENSIVE 

Sam Bregman

The May PBS forum where Haaland has agreed to engage with Bregman lacks the spark, tension and the large audience commanded by a a live televised debate on one of the major commercial networks (like KRQE) where any Haaland missteps would be amplified. 

Bregman, a bombastic trial attorney, is known for his love of the camera. Haaland is more pensive and on less sure footing under the glare of the spotlight. That showed when she served as Secretary of Interior and struggled to answer congressional questions at several oversight hearings. 

While Haaland may come across as shallow on policy, there is no denying that she harbors superb political instincts. She was elected to and presided successfully as chair of the state Democratic party; she easily won the '14 Dem Lt. Gov. nomination; was elected to two terms from the ABQ congressional seat and fought off Sen. Martin Heinrich and other heavyweight contenders to become the first Native American to be named Secretary of Interior.

Bregman can choose to push harder to get the debate door open but knocking elsewhere may be in order. 

THE BOTTOM LINES

Gary King slipped quietly into private life following his '14 loss for governor but now King and his legendary political family find themselves back in the spotlight and not in a favorable way. More on the king family ties to Jeffrey Epstein and the Zorro ranch they sold to him continues to unfold. The latest here.  

This the Home of New Mexico Politics. 

Friday's dismissal of a second lawsuit challenging Duke Rodriguez's right to be on the June 2 primary ballot sets the stage for the next big moment--Saturday's GOP preprimary at Ruidoso where delegates from across the state will vote on placing candidates on the ballot. 

Insiders don't expect Rodriguez, nicknamed the Cannabis King for his ownership of Ultra Health, the state's leading legal marijuana business, to win that convention. He faces competitors Gregg Hull, Steve Lanie, Doug Turner and Jim Ellison. 

Those insiders point to several reasons for Rodriguez's expected mediocre preprimary showing. One is his status as a party outsider. Another is the disclosure reported on this blog that in the past decade he has donated at least $189,000 to the campaigns of Democratic candidates.

"They absolutely hate that," declared a GOP operative now desperate to slow Rodriguez in the aftermath of his two court wins. 

It will take 20 percent of the voting delegates--(about 500 voted in 2024) for a candidate to secure a party-approved spot on the ballot. That's a low bar but Rodriguez actually does not need to cross it to continue his candidacy. Candidates who don't reach that threshold can submit more petition signatures to get on he ballot and Rodriguez already has more than enough to do just that. 

Outsider Guv candidate Mark Ronchetti saw the writing on the wall when he ran in 2024. He bypassed the convention and still went on to easily win the nomination.

Not Duke. He is living up to his reputation as a scrappy fighter and is twisting arms to get to the 20 percent. If he does he will see it as a victory that further demoralizes his foes. If he doesn't, there is little downside.

STOPPING DUKE 

Can his opponents keep him under 20 percent and ignite some enthusiasm to stop his wild romp toward the nomination? A big win by one of them--perhaps Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull--might help reset the race and make it more competitive--if such a win resulted in better fundraising.

Amplifying the desperation of the anti-Duke chorus is that pledge he's made to spend upwards of $2 million of his own money on the primary. He's been making good on it by buying expensive full-page newspaper ads and a digital presence. 

While Republicans may hate his Dem donations, the party of business loves it when a candidate has that kind of skin in the game. 

The preprimary will be conducted in a still unsettled legal environment surrounding the Rodriguez candidacy. The District Court rulings on the two lawsuits challenging his NM residency could be appealed and undergo the legal scrutiny they have so far evaded. Both suits were dismissed for technical reasons with the residency issues going unaddressed,

But that's down the road. For now Rodriguez appears to own the road that leads to Primary Night '26.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Former state Senator John Sapien, once a ringleader of the now defunct conservative Dem coalition that ruled the chamber, is back in politics. The Corrales businessman is running in the June primary for an open seat on the Sandoval County Commission. It's familiar territory for Sapien. His late father once represented the same commission district. . .The infamous New Mexico Zorro Ranch is getting a closer look as the Epstein files continue to filter out. The NYT takes a long look. 

This the Home of New Mexico Politics. 

Romero and Stansbury in DC

When ABQ Dem Rep. Melanie Stansbury invited Santa Fe state Rep. Andrea Romero to be her guest at the State of the Union Tuesday night the Alligators started splashing. 

Like many other Dems, the pair boycotted the actual speech and instead joined Epstein survivors to mark the occasion. Stansbury invited Romero because of her role as chair of the newly empaneled state Epstein Truth Commission which is charged with investigating Epstein's ties here, particularly to his now notorious Zorro ranch.

Romero's emergence on that international issue as well as on legislation banning ICE detention centers in the state have catapulted her up the food chain of La Politica. It was not entirely expected, given the heavy damage she sustained from an ethics scandal when she first ran for the legislature in 2018. 

But it was not the type of scandal that would lead to a permanent ghosting. In fact, House Speaker Javier Martinez has smoothed her entry into the limelight--and now Stansbury. 

Under scrutiny with her new high profile, Romero has acquitted herself well in fielding questions from national and local media. Danger however lurks with the Epstein matter. If her closely watched  commission doesn't perform, it could be a career threat. 

So where does the Congress part come in? Well, northern Dem Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez is 66 and certainly not ready for the rocking chair. But after another term or two she could be ready to come home permanently. That brings Romero into the succession equation. She fits the progressive bill for the Dems and if she has her eye on the prize, she is off to a solid start. Any potential rivals for that opening are on notice. 

Don't say we didn't tell you. . . 

DUKES DEM DONATIONS (CONT.)

We have a new grand total of the donations GOP gubernatorial candidate Duke Rodriguez and Ultra Health made to Democratic candidates since 2015. A Senior Alligator checked both of the totals posted here earlier and came with some minor adjustments. Donations from Rodriguez and his Ultra Health cannabis company to Democrats totals $188,150 and to Republicans $29,500. Here's that full report (and hopefully the last one).

BREGMAN POLLING 

Trying to get something started in his underdog race for the Dem gubernatorial nomination, Sam Bregman sent his pollster into the field after that news report revealing that front-runner Deb Haaland and Gary King had hitched a ride on an Epstein-linked jet in 2014 when she was the Lt. Governor nominee and King the Governor nominee. 

And surprise (or not) the poll showed Haaland taking a hit when voters were reminded of the incident and then asked who they would pick as their Dem nominee. Haaland polled at 46 and Bregman at 25. Meanwhile, Haaland's camp says her internal polling--before the Epstein story--had her getting 56 percent. (Click on posted poll for more).

This the Home of New Mexico Politics. 

Duke Rodriguez successfully jumped over one legal hurdle Tuesday. Now he has one to go before he is free and clear to make his run for the '26 GOP gubernatorial nomination. 

. ..A state judge dismissed a court challenge filed against the Republican gubernatorial candidate. But the question of whether Rodriguez meets a residency requirement to hold statewide office remains unanswered — at least for now. . .District Judge Curtis Gurley of Aztec granted a motion to dismiss the complaint filed by two Republican voters that claimed Rodriguez did not meet the residency requirement in the New Mexico Constitution. "Our courts want the voters to decide," Gurley said while announcing his ruling that granted Rodriguez's motion to dismiss the case on technical grounds.

The second lawsuit Rodriguez must overcome--and Legal Beagles say Judge Gurley's ruling gives him a head start--deals with the five year residency requirement to hold statewide office. That suit was filed by Rodriguez rival Jim Ellison and has yet to be scheduled for a hearing. 

Rodriguez attorney, former ABQ state Senator Jacob Candelaria, a onetime Dem turned independent, got a head start on the residency argument in his filings in the first suit, writing: 

Article V, Section 3 of the New Mexico Constitution requires that a person "have resided continuously in New Mexico for five years next preceding his election" to hold the office of Governor. . . This provision addresses the qualifications to hold office, not to run for office. 

And he added this argument: 

The determination of whether Mr. Rodriguez's name can appear on the 2026 primary election ballot is completely independent of, and therefore unaffected by, the question of whether he satisfies the constitutional residency requirement for the office of Governor. The constitutional question will not become ripe for judicial review until such time as Mr. Rodriguez receives a Certificate of Election to the Office of Governor.

More of the legal motion to dismiss the case is here. 

Elections expert and former Dem ABQ state Senator Daniel Ivey Soto reacted:

There is no legal provision that allows a candidacy challenge after the Primary and before the General. What would be raised after the General would be a constitutional challenge. . .If Duke were to win the General Election, that is when another case could be raised, but the conundrum for the judge deciding the case would be whether to overturn the will of the voters.  

Another Legal Beagle opined:

The argument is basically - Duke might not be qualified to be Governor, but he is qualified to be on the ballot.  

While he still has to endure some more legal limbo, Rodriguez, who has had residences in both New Mexico and Arizona, wasn't waiting to celebrate. Right after the ruling came out of the Four Corners courtroom, he declared:

I don't view this as just a victory for my campaign. Today, New Mexicans won. They won the opportunity to get beyond the politics of the past and to fix what’s broken. . .While other candidates in this race are trying to create voter confusion, I’m going to continue my focus on fixing the problems New Mexican families are facing: crime, healthcare, immigration, and building a stronger economy so families can thrive.

TOO LOW?

The Duke Rodriguez detractors remain busy critiquing his Dem campaign donations as the March 7 GOP preprimary convention nears and where delegates will vote to place gubernatorial candidates on the ballot. We get this from one of them in reaction to our Tuesday blog on those donations: 

Joe, The CFIS (the state's campaign reporting system)  is a real pain in the ass these days, but the $186k in Democratic donations you reported made to Dem candidates are just from his marijuana company Ultra Health. Rodriguez has donated $40,00 on his own. All of these numbers can be verified directly with the SOS. f you judge Rodriguez by his donations he's a quite the Democrat.   

Here is the donation report that reader cited. The initial report from GOP political operatives is on the Tuesday blog.

 SPEECH BOYCOTT 

Sens. Lujan and Heinrich

There was little political cost to members of the state's congressional delegation who boycotted last night's State of the Union speech from President Trump. After scaring Democrats in 2024 by coming within six points of presidential winner Kamala Harris in New Mexico, the president's polling remains low and has crashed Hispanics has crashed.

Trump's overall popularity has consistently been underwater here. A Morning Star poll conducted earlier this month has him with a 42 percent approval rating and 55 percent disapproval. A CNN survey also this month shows Hispanic approval of Trump is at 25 percent, down from the 44 percent approval he received in early '25. Economic concerns and the White House's aggressive immigration policies are the chief reasons, according to the survey. 

Rep. Gabe Vasquez was the sole member of the state's five member congressional delegation to attend the State of the Union.  

This the Home of New Mexico Politics. 

Marijuana magnate and GOP gubernatorial hopeful Duke Rodriguez didn’t just want legal weed in New Mexico—he was willing to pay for it. A decade of campaign finance records reveals an unabashed pattern of financial support for the very Democrats who made legalization a reality.

Records from the past ten years show 70 donations to state Democrats from Rodriguez's Ultra-Health and his personal funds totaling $184,000.

The report of Rodriguez's liberal giving to Dems was compiled and circulated by political operatives who hope to slow momentum for Rodriguez before the state GOP's March 7th pre-primary convention in Ruidoso. Delegates there will vote to place candidates on the June 2 ballot. 

The operatives' report shows only four Rodriguez-related donations over the period to state Republican candidates totaling less than $16,000. But we have not yet confirmed those as his only GOP donations.  

Rodriguez’s fortune was built on the back of medical marijuana, but his success exploded when adult-use cannabis was legalized in 2021. That victory followed intense prodding by Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham (MLG), who called a special session to push the bill over the finish line.

It's been previously noted that Rodriguez donated $11,000 to MLG's 2018 gubernatorial campaign but  records show he gave even bigger to the "The Speaker's Fund"--a $20,000 donation to that leadership PAC in August of 2023 and another $5,000 donation in May 2024. 

That $25,000 is the most Rodriguez donated to any Democratic official or group during the past 10 years. His other large donations to Democrats include $10,000 to the NM Senate Democrats in 2019 and another $12,500 to that PAC in 2020.  

The Speaker's Fund is currently run by Democratic House Speaker Javier Martinez who was selected for the post in 2023. Beyond the leadership PAC, Rodriguez personally bolstered Speaker Martinez’s own campaigns, cutting checks for $5,000 in 2020 and $3,000 in 2022.

The Speaker, who represents District 11 in the heart of ABQ, was and is an ardent advocate of legalized marijuana. He was the chief sponsor of the legalization bill. He and the Governor argued legalization would lead to an economic boom but it turned into somewhat of a bust when too many marijuana shops were licensed and caused an industry downsizing.

Rodriguez was also generous with donations to Santa Fe area Rep. Brian Egolf who served as House Speaker from 2017-'23. He donated $7,500 to Egolf's Speaker's Fund in 2021. 

Since the 2021 legalization of cannabis, Ultra Health--the state’s largest cannabis operator--has been  active in shaping the legal and regulatory landscape. The company has frequently used litigation to challenge state agencies and push for broader interpretations of the Cannabis Regulation Act (CRA)..

PERCEIVED FRONT-RUNNER

Duke Rodriguez

Rodriguez is the only GOP guv hopeful who has spent significant money in the early going, making a splash with full page newspaper ads and a heavy digital presence. 

Rodriguez says he will bet upwards of $2 million of his own fortune that Republican voters will prioritize his business acumen.

That announcement and making good on it in the opening campaign days has made him the perceived front-runner for the nomination, regardless of his performance at the upcoming pre-primary. 

Marijuana legalization is widely supported in the state but polls show the remaining pockets of opposition are among Republicans. 

Rodriguez remains unapologetic about his past Dem donations. He says all of them are driven by a "fully objective goal" of influencing how specific industries—particularly cannabis--are managed in New Mexico. In a 2021 interview, he said, "I'm proud of that," declaring that he supported lawmakers who were willing to work on the "proper execution" of state laws. 

The central question for the Ruidoso convention is whether delegates will view Rodriguez as a pragmatic businessman or a party outsider who funded the opposition. However, history suggests his background might not be a deal-breaker. Republicans previously rallied behind Darren White for ABQ Mayor despite his similar cannabis ties and history of Democratic donations.

Whether the state GOP is willing to "go green" with Rodriguez remains the most expensive question of the 2026 cycle.

This the Home of New Mexico Politics.  

Sen. Lujan

Can the GOP take advantage of an obscure state election law to reverse their historic failure to field a candidate against Dem US Senator Ben Ray Luajn in the November general election? 

That's the question now that the GOP's only candidate--Rio Rancho's Christopher Vanden Heuvel--failed to submit enough petition signatures to qualify for the June primary ballot. 

But there's still still one long-shot play available to the R's--qualify a write-in candidate for the June primary who could have a shot at getting on the November ballot. 

Longtime Rio Rancho Republcian activisd Todd Hathorne says on his social media that failed candidate Vanden Heuevel is now pursing the write-in option:  

Chris Vanden Heuvel did not quit. He is fighting every day. Signatures are coming in.

Here's how a Republican write-in candidacy plays out according to state election law and as explained by our ace analytical friends at Downballot and Sabato's Crystal Ball:

There’s an outside chance that Republicans could still land a Senate candidate, but time is running out. Anyone who wants to seek the GOP nomination as a write-in candidate only has until March 17 to collect 2,351 signatures—a number that represents 2% of the number of registered Republican voters who cast a ballot in the most recent gubernatorial election. They would then need to win that same number of write-in votes in the primary to get their name on the fall ballot.

We confirmed that take with the SOS's office as well as state elections expert and former state Sen. Daniel Ivey-Soto who wrote many of the state's election statutes. 

Yes, it is quite the long-shot but perhaps worth taking to avoid the embarrassment of having no GOP candidate for a US senate seat for the first time in state history. 

Meanwhile, DC was as surprised as New Mexico over Lujan's developing free ride:

The Crystal Ball already had New Mexico’s Senate race rated as Safe Democratic, Lujan did not strike us as the most obvious candidate for a “free ride” in 2026. When he was first elected to the chamber in 2020, he ran noticeably behind the top of the ticket despite a well-established record in state politics: as Joe Biden carried New Mexico by 11 points, Lujan defeated Republican TV weatherman Mark Ronchetti by 6 points. 

Old timers will recall 1980 when Joe Skeen became only the third person in US history to get elected to the US House as a write-in candidate. After upheaval in the state Dem party, Skeen won the battle for the open southern NM congressional seat and he did not retire from it until 2003. (Here is our obituary of Skeen from our Dec. 8, 2003 blog.)

In the Lujan case there is no upheaval among the Dems--although the senator has drawn a symbolic Dem primary foe in Matt Dodson--and Lujan is heavily favored to beat any Republican candidate who may arise. It would, however, be a point of pride for the GOP to have someone--anyone--fill that glaring opening on their '26 ballot. 

AN INDY CANDIDATE?

Lujan could still be challenged by an independent candidate but they would have to gather about 14,000 valid petition signatures by late June to qualify for the November ballot. 

Could a Republican now run as an independent? A "former" Republican could. 

The SOS says an independent candidate for the general election would have to be registered as a decline to state voter by the time the Secretary of State issued the General Election Proclamation on January 26. 

This the Home of New Mexico Politics.