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Monday, September 29, 2025A Dissatsified City Is Also Dissatisfied With Mayoral Choices; Journal Poll Shows Undecided Voters Exceptionally High; Keller Leads But Draws Just 29 Percent As His Foes Lag Far Behind; Election '25 News And Analysis Is Up Next
A city dissatisfied with the direction it's going in is also dissatisfied with the choices to lead the city for the next four years. The dreary details are revealed in the ABQ Journal poll of the November 4 mayoral race, showing none of the seven candidates could even manage 30 percent of the vote. Also, in what appears to be an historic high for this stage of a mayoral campaign, 37 percent of likely voters polled describe themselves as undecided. Granted, there hasn't been much of a campaign and the race should grow more heated In October but no one is expecting fireworks. Mayor Tim Keller, seeking an unprecedented third consecutive four year term, is in a fight with himself. His low approval ratings are haunting him as Keller only pulls 29 percent of the vote despite having nearly universal name ID. The problem is illustrated with this social media reaction to the poll from Brett Hendrickson: Keller has had 8 years to clean up the city and now wants another 4 years. Where is the logic in giving him another term? I don’t trust polling. Driving down Central, Zuni, and Menaul is enough for anyone to want change. Keller's campaign said of the poll: Our campaign is strong, our message is resonating, and Mayor Tim Keller is in the lead. In a crowded field of seven, Tim is the clear frontrunner. . . 37% of voters are still undecided. That means this race is far from over. And with Darren White — a Trump lackey who represents a dangerous, backwards vision for Albuquerque — in second place, it’s clear what’s at stake. The landscape still points to Democrat Keller coming in first but getting 50 percent of the vote in order to avoid a run-off election with probable second place finisher Darren White remains a steep climb. White, however, is worse off. The former sheriff's 16 percent support is half of what the main GOP candidate in the contest could expect at this point. That he is nowhere close to that level speaks to the high pile of negative baggage he's accumulated with fellow Republicans during his time in the public eye including his controversial move into the legal marijuana business That makes any Keller-White run-off already looking like a fait accompli for the incumbent.
Mayling Armijo, Daniel Chavez and Eddie Varela are polling at one or two percent. The Journal showed those levels of support among Dems, Republicans and indys. That makes the trio nonfactors in the contest. Progressive former US Attorney Alex Uballez falls flat, garnering a mere 6 percent of the vote. He now has to determine how fluid the electorate is, if he can make a major move and muster the necessary money. A tough position but still a lingering threat if something big should happen. His campaign said of the survey: This election will be decided by the 37% of likely voters who are still undecided and the unlikely voters we recruit into the project of democracy. Predictably, the top two candidates currently are the incumbent with only 29% support and Darren White with only 16% support. . .Any poll done this far out from the election is more a measure of name recognition than it is support. Alex’s main competition in this race is name recognition, nothing else. For now Trump does not appear to be strongly motivating the progressive vote. Keller, who gets 43 percent Democratic support in the survey, will work to change that as will Uballez. MONEY MATTERS The Mayor is the only candidate who can really do much of anything in the final stretch because he is the only hopeful with any significant money. He was the only one to qualify for over $750,000 in public financing when the others failed. They then failed to raise money from a public they have yet to impress. As of September 8 Keller had $654,000 in public financing still left to spend and an outside PAC supporting his candidacy reported $120,000 in cash. That's $774,000 of messaging power versus White's $130,000 in cash; Sanchez's $149K and $116,000 for Uballez. The Journal poll could make raising additional money to take on Keller even more difficult. Keller will likely be the only candidate with a significant TV ad campaign. The vast majority of voters in a mayoral race are well over 50 and watch local TV news stations and their network programming. Younger voters, much less likely to vote, are not big TV watchers but are glued to social media. The lack of enthusiasm or even the disdain for the mayoral field drew this comment from longtime political analyst and Santa Fe attorney Greg Payne: After this poll Keller ought to change his campaign slogan to "Better the Devil You Know." GETTING TO 50
Here is a closer look at that extraordinary 37 percent of voters who say they are still undecided. When those undecided voters were asked which candidate they were leaning toward, most still said they were not sure. But with those who did express a “lean” factored in, Keller’s support in the survey rose to 35%, with White’s support at roughly 19%. Even after the "leans" are accounted for 29 percent of voters remain undecided. That signals a low voter turnout, well below the 120,000 who voted for mayor in 2021. That favors Keller's political machine which is well-financed and can target the most likely voters with expensive mail and TV. Ordinarily most analysts would not entertain the thought of having no run-off election in a seven candidate field but the massive financial mismatch and the weakness of the opposing campaigns still keeps some hope alive in the Keller camp that they can get him to an outright majority. The Journal has Keller’s approval rating at 42%, up about 10% from a couple of years ago so that also puts the 50% mark on the table. That may be the most suspenseful question going forward unless his challengers can somehow reverse course in roughly the month remaining on the '25 election calendar Th Journal polled 514 likely city voters Sept. 19-26. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent. 96 percent of voters polled were reached by cell phone and 4 percent by landlines. This is the Home of New Mexico Politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. Thursday, September 25, 2025Poll Says Santa Fe Voters Are Very Unhappy Over City's Direction and Turning To Michael Garcia In Mayor's Race; He Sports A Solid Lead And Challengers Appear To Face Steep Climb Catching
The Garcia surge to replace two-term Mayor Alan Webber was actually recorded Aug18-24 in a poll conducted on behalf of the Santa Fe Realtors Association, but the group did not release the survey until this week. When they did it was a jaw dropper because Garcia appeared considerably ahead. There is another catch to the poll by American Strategies which does polling for real estate groups nationally. They did not have a horse race question, matching the contenders against each other. Instead they chose to ask voters if they rated the candidates favorably or unfavorably. Garcia fared far better than any other candidate in the race, with 14% of voters rating him "very favorably" and 29% "somewhat favorably." Ron Trujillo ranked second, with 31% finding him favorable (8% very favorable), and JoAnne Vigil Coppler third, with 28% finding her favorable (5% very favorable). This is Trujillo's second try for mayor. He is an anti-Webber populist but Garcia is doing better at bottling the anger of voters. The other four candidates, including progressive Santa Fe County Commissioner Justin Greene, were largely unknown to those polled. All the hopefuls have only about a month to turn the race around. That will take a hearty Stop Garcia movement featuring high octane negative messaging to reverse the trend, say experts such as Sana Fe Fe attorney, former state legislator and political consultant Greg Payne: I think it's an uphill battle for all of the Garcia challengers. If I had to predict today, I'd say Garcia wins. But my main take away from this poll is, the people of Santa Fe are pissed off. Mayor Webber is seen as a total failure. Payne's perception is grounded in this finding of the poll of 400 Santa Fe registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent: As we've commented of late crime and homelessness in Santa Fe are starting to remind us of how ABQs problems accelerated with the same issues and contue to challenge the city today. Garcia can't wave a magic wand but as a pragmatic centrist with a masters in public administration, he said he plans to restore stable management to the city which has he says has been hampered under Webber. His mantra on improving basic city services is apparently catching fire. On homelessness he says he would like to pursue a plan that is similar to ABQ's Gateway Center where a variety of services are offered to assist people start anew rather than simply providing temporary shelters. The front running Garcia is not without baggage. He has developed a reputation for confrontation over unity and he has bailed on some key council votes on key issues like crime. But overall he projects confidence and competence and most important, he is not a woke progressive like Webber who after eight years has worn out his welcome. That Garcia and Trujillo are the two candidates who poll the best also may speak to a yearning by City Different voters to have a native son with deep roots in the community take the helm. Garcia is not a businessman, his career has been in the nonprofit world, but he is fond of saying running a city is not a business and points to Webber's experience as a wealthy entrepreneur in administering the city and coming up short. He gives the mayor's performance an F minus. MLG recently endorsed her old friend Joanne Vigil Coppler for mayor but that is seen as a personal nod and having little impact on the race. For Garcia, who was also ahead in the only other public poll released over the summer, now needs to avoid a foot-in-the-mouth moment, take his positive numbers and steer to victory. For the challengers the heavy guns must be fired to slow his march but with no big money poised to do that, a win could be in store for the 45 year old Garcia. Here is video of a recent in-depth interview done with Garcia. American Strategies says it uses in-person telephoning, online sampling and text messaging to compile their surveys. This is the Home of New Mexico Politics. Wednesday, September 24, 2025Dem Light Guv Race Would Be A Slugfest If SOS Joins Land Commissioner In Contest; Stephanie Answers Maggie's Tease With Name Endorsement, Plus: Udall And Kenny Thomas Pop Into Guv Race
State Land Commissioner Stephanie Garcia Richard has been in the race since March and is of no mind to end her political career at the hands of the SOS. The two Dem titans both boast good name ID and political savvy. The race would be fierce. Even without a formal entry Toulouse Oliver has rattled Garcia Richard's cage. As soon as MTO publicly dangled her possible run the twice elected land commissioner rolled out an endorsement from former Dem US Senator Jeff Bingaman seemingly designed to send MTO a message not to get in. Actor Jane Fonda, a fave of progressives and Anglo boomer women, is also backing Garcia Richard. She once lived here and her former husband, Ted Turner, has extensive state land holdings. MTO is a former two term Bernalillo County Clerk and a twice elected Secretary of State who terms out at the end of 2026. Her base is the biggest voting county in the state and she may believe it gives her the edge in a primary. She did, however, lose statewide in 2014 when she lost the SOS race to Republican Dianna Duran. If this match-up happens, it could be a fight to the political death. Both would be so bloodied by the end that recovering from defeat would be improbable. THREE WAY RACE  Either Garcia Richard or Toulouse Oliver could handle the sparse duties of lieutenant governor but if they think it could be the gateway to being elected Governor, history is a harsh reminder. No #2 in modern state history has gone up that ladder. Both of them are long-term public employees and getting a four year gig (or eight) would get them closer to the years they need to enhance their PERA checks. Speaking of endorsements, former US Senator Tom Udall, 77, wants a fellow progressive to advance to the governorship so he has come out for Deb Haaland. He did so on the very day that that Haaland opponent Sam Bregman was announcing his 189 page Blueprint for New Mexico and when Bregman also came with a name endorsement. Basketball legend Kenny Thomas gave him the nod. The two endorsements restate the obvious in the Guv campaign--Haaland is the fave of most women and progressives while Bregman and Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima are more favored by men and centrists. This is the Home of New Mexico Politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. Tuesday, September 23, 2025Dem Guv Candidate Bregman Supports Bill To Let Out Of State Doctors And Other Healthcare Workers Practice Here; Trial Lawyers May Be Softening Opposition But MLG Says No Deal Struck With Key Dem Senators To Put It On Special Session Agenda The question surfaced again after '26 Dem Guv candidate Sam Bregman last week released his Blueprint for New Mexico. He said, if elected, he would support the state adopting interstate health compacts that would allow doctors and other medical practitioners outside New Mexico to see patients here. Bregman is now the BernCo District Attorney, but previously he was a high-profile trial lawyer. His support for the state signing on to the compacts comes amid talk that the NM Trial Lawyers Association, many of whose members support a PAC to fight medical malpractice reforms, apparently is no longer opposed to the compacts. That could make the moment ripe for Gov. Lujan Grisham to get the proposal before the special session of the legislature that she has called for October 1. MLG said Monday she would put the issue on the special session agenda if legislative leadership agreed but they don't. That kicks it to the regular session in January. Here is video of her statement. The trial lawyers have been concerned that compacts shields the commissions running them from lawsuits, which endangers accountability. Their critics say they are more worried about losing their shot at big settlements. 43 other sates have already signed off on various compacts. ROUNDHOUSE STALL State Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Joe Cervantes, a trial attorney, has been adamant in his opposition to the compacts and has stalled them after they cleared the House unanimously. He teamed with fellow trial attorney and ABQ Dem Senator Katy Duhigg to pile on amendments. At the last session 10 medical compacts were considered that would have opened the state's doors to doctors, psychologists, physical and occupational therapists, dentists and more. Cervantes did not respond to an inquiry to determine if his stance has changed. Senate Majority Leader Peter Wirth, also a trial attorney, said the issue should wait until January: We need the time to examine how interstate compacts would interact with New Mexico’s existing laws and ensure that any changes truly serve the long-term interests of providers and patients. Cervantes later came with this comment:  The state has taken measures to allow more out of state physicians access but compact proponents say it is nowhere near enough and that it is long overdue for the state to join the Interstate Medical Licensure Compact that allows medical practitioners licensed in other states to practice here. The doctor shortage is most severe in rural areas. The compacts, supporters say, could see border communities attract more doctors to provide care. Examples include doctors going from Durango to Farmington and from El Paso to Las Cruces. Trial lawyers have also been fighting against medical malpractice insurance reforms. They may be willing to offer the compacts as a compromise as their standing with the public comes under pressure. At least that's the buzz that is building. But the Governor and Cervantes working together seems critical to pushing the compacts over the line, As for malpractice reform, in his blueprint Bregman does not embrace it, saying there is "no silver bullet" for the doctor shortage. However, he does propose tax credits for physicians facing escalating insurance premiums for malpractice coverage. This is the Home of New Mexico Politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. Monday, September 22, 2025First Scientific Poll Coming In ABQ Mayoral Race; Sunday Release Slated As Keller Challengers Still Scurry For Funds And Recognition, Plus: Massive Project Jupiter At State Border Wins Approval
Longtime Research and Polling President Brian Sanderoff confirms the poll will be out Sunday, Sept. 28. That's the good news. The bad news is it may be the only one. "Just one poll is planned at this time." He said. For those new to New Mexico and polling here, Sanderoff, 71, has been polling the state for the Journal for 40 years. Pundit Nate Silver's 2025 ratings of 27 national polling firms ranks Research and Polling as the fourth most accurate in the nation. That's heady territory for a New Mexico based business. The firm relies on in-person phone calls to prospective voters, the most accurate method of determining how they may vote. A scientific poll with a randomized and representative sample, rigorous methodology, and statistical weighting for accuracy--is a specialized service. There are not many firms around anymore that do it, with more reliance on the Internet for surveys. The personal phone polling is expensive with cost of a basic city survey estimated to easily reach $30,000 and more as the poll adds questions. As the newspaper industry has been downsized the Journal polls have been less frequent than past election cycles but at least one is conducted for the major elections and usually includes a list of issues that are covered over a week. That can't be easy but the paper, to their credit and their readers' benefit, have stayed the course. Sanderoff is also a political analyst for KOAT-TV but these days politics is only a small part of his company's business which also works for a wide variety of major corporate and government entities. STATE OF THE RACE
The Journal survey should pinpoint that support demographically and also indicate who is most likely to get into a run-off with Keller, if the Mayor fails to reach the 50 percent mark but does come in first or second. Whatever the poll shows, it will be difficult for the challengers to act upon the results. All of them are under-financed. Keller is now spending over $750,000 he qualified for under public financing and an outside PAC supporting him had $120,000 in cash at last report. Republican Darren White and Democrat Louie Sanchez, who has donated a hefty $150,000 in personal funds to his campaign, are both up with radio ads. Keller's campaign has signs dotting front yards around the city and Alex Uballez has a few as well. But most of the campaign has been taking place on social media which is a shot in the dark when it comes to reaching the most likely voters. That will now begin to change with paid media (and negative campaigning) becoming more noticeable. Early voting at the County Clerk's Annex begins October 7. That is also when absentee ballots will be mailed to city voters already on the list. To get an absentee ballot (the deadline to request is Oct. 21) info is here. In-person citywide voting begins Oct. 18. Election Day is November 4. History says well over half the vote will be cast before then. As for TV debates, none have been publicly announced. If any are held and all seven candidates attend, it would be hard for any of them to get an advantage. Often the stations pass on doing debates with such a large field or confine it to digital platforms. THE FORUMS  That will change with forums now scheduled where all or most of the candidates are expected to attend and which should generate media coverage. September 30--The business group NM NAIOP will host the candidates at the ABQ Sheraton Uptown, an event that is usually well-attended and reported on. Journal editor Jay Newton-Small will moderate. October 7--Bike ABQ & Strong Towns will conduct a a mayoral forum at 6 p.m. at the First Congregational United Church of Christ. October 16--The Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors® (GAAR) conduct their mayoral forum at 9 a.m at the GAAR Event Center. Tickets are available via the link. JUPITER A GO  Opposition has centered on energy and water issues and tax incentives seen as too generous. But at a tense public meeting the Commission approved the bonds on a 4-1 vote, citing the 750 permanent jobs that the project is predicted to generate as well as a significant increase to the tax base of the poverty-stricken region. The money would be invested over a 30 year period with a $50 billion pop at the beginning. Austin-based BorderPlex Digital Assets is the company making the investment. They will not pay property taxes on the 1,400-acre campus and instead pay the county $360 million over 30 years--$12 million annually. AI developer STACK Infrastructure, owned by private equity firm Blue Owl Capital is a partner with BorderPlex. The enormous numbers involved are representative of the massive AI investment taking place in the nation. Jupiter will have four hyperscale buildings designed for high-density computing, capable of housing thousands of servers for big tech clients.
The BorderPlex Digital leadership team includes former NM Economic Development Secretary Alicia Keyes, working in government affairs, and George P. Bush, a nephew of former President George W. Bush, consulting on strategy. MLG has given the project her full support as has Dona Ana state Rep. Nathan Small, chair of the House Appropriations Committee. The company's NM lobbyist is Vanessa Alarid. Las Cruces area Dem state Reps. Angelica Rubio and Micaela Lara Cadena have opposed Jupiter along with state Sen. Bill Soules. This is the Home of New Mexico Politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. Thursday, September 18, 2025Below The Radar Election In ABQ Metro Is Underway; All Candidates In It Are Unopposed, Plus: More Gaming Of GOP Guv Race There is an election underway in the ABQ metro that hardly anyone is aware of. Four positions for the board of directors of the Midddle Rio Grande Conservancy District (MGRCD) district are being decided. The reason the election is receiving very little notice? There is only one candidate running for each slot so the election is basically over before it begins. Three of the four running are incumbent members on the seven member board. Only property owners within the district's boundaries--which includes parts of Bernalillo, Sandoval, Valencia and Socorro counties, are eligible to vote. Election info is here. Early voting started Sept. 15 and Election Day is October 7. That's rare. Nearly all state municipalities follow a November schedule under the Local Election Act. Exceptions are mostly limited to special districts like the MRGCD. Former state Senator Daniel Ivey Soto tried unsuccessfully to get the MGRCD elections changed to November to increase participation. The MGRCD, established in 1925, manages irrigation, flood control, and water conservation along the Rio Grande from Cochiti Pueblo to Elephant Butte Reservoir. With climate change the board has been higher profile, wrestling with such issues as severe water shortages, river flow and drought. High assessment fees on irrigated lands to fund MGRCD have emerged as a flash point. Small farmers have been overwhelmed and that has led to land sales. The four unopposed candidates are: Position No. 3 – Bernalillo County– Karen Dunning; Position No. 4 – Bernalillo County– Colin T. Baugh; Position No. 6 – Socorro County– J. Chris Lopez; Position No. 7 – Sandoval County– Michael T. Sandoval. More on the election here. NAKAMURA ANALYSIS  I don't see Nakamura running. The GOP/MAGA primary voters aren't going to take the trade off of accepting her liberal social positions even if they think her odds are good for taking the Guv's Mansion. Even if it's a one-on-one match between Nakamura and Gregg Hull, I disagree with the Alligators who say she could beat him in that scenario. However, she might be able to win in a crowded field. Think of Gary Johnson in the 1994 GOP primary. A black and white/conservative versus a moderate liberal match-up--which is what a Hull-Nakamrua race would be--doesn't work for her but a multi-candidate race could. Rio Rancho Mayor Hull is the only GOP candidate currently in the '26 gubernatorial race. THE BOTTOM LINES Conservative reader Jim McClure couldn't resist making a crack about MLG's arm being in a sling after a recent surgery: This is the Home of New Mexico Politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. Wednesday, September 17, 2025Fraught With Peril: Tense Search For New UNM President Looms As Stokes Heads To The Exits, Plus: Project Jupiter: Gargantuan Bond For Cruces Area Data Center Draws Scrutiny; Water And Energy Key Concerns
Saying that replacing Stokes will be extremely difficult is not necessarily a statement on her job performance, although that has received passing grades from the Regents. But getting aboard a new president is fraught with political and financial peril for those same Regents. Of course, MLG will weigh in on the national search for a replacement. She appoints the Regents and like past governors will expect to have her voice heard at a critical moment for the institution. The national environment will make what is always a challenging task even more tense and complex. Stokes, who will leave in July of '26, and UNM have already felt the Trump administration's foray into university governance and there is no reason to think there won't be a play made for more influence as UNM looks to hire a new president. DEI at UNM--diversity, equity and inclusion programs--could be at the center of any battle that develops over a new president. The administration has targeted DEI in federal agencies and education which has led UNM and other universities to review hiring, promotion and recruitment policies. The new president will have to know how to handle political pressure--like threatened cuts to influence university behavior--while maintaining UNM's diversity. Funding for Hispanic Serving Institutions like UNM has already been hit with the administration ending several grant programs, arguing they are unconstitutional. They've redirected some of the money to Black colleges and tribal colleges. That's tricky territory to navigate. There is also a plan to cap federal funding for research grants. A cap of 15 percent for federal funding of "indirect costs" of research grants would be drastic for UNM and could cost $20 million. The plan is being fought in court. The new UNM president will need to be a staunch defender of academic freedom and institutional autonomy and prepared to defend the university's mission in the face of contentious debates over Palestine, teaching methods and free speech. They will also have to know their way around Washington to ward off cuts in funding. The new president will have to protect faculty and staff but also accommodate legitimate calls from inside and outside the university for change in UNM policies. Stokes came across as a caring apolitical centrist. But the times ahead will demand a more assertive personality but still one not prone to alienate constituencies. Even if the Regents pay the new president as much as the football coach--over a million a year--they could have a hard time finding outstanding candidates. A hefty dose of Lobo luck will be needed when UNM begins a new leadership chapter. PROJECT JUPITER  Joe, If we could get a shout out on our community efforts that would be great. Thanks for all you do. We don’t have the blogs or journalists down here like we used to. Constituents will come together Wednesday at the Dona Ana County Government Center to voice concerns on Project Jupiter. A project of this magnitude, $165 billion, and its potential impact to Sunland Park, Santa Teresa and Dona Ana County is unknown. Constituents and the critical stakeholders deserve transparency. . .We stand as concerned citizens not in rejection of Project Jupiter, but a call for thoroughness and accountability. Project Jupiter Wednesday, September 17th 10 am at Dona Ana County Government Center That $165 billion is not a typo: Project Jupiter is a proposed $165 billion hyperscale data center campus focused on artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, developed by STACK Infrastructure in partnership with BorderPlex Digital Assets. It is planned for an unincorporated area in Santa Teresa, Doña Ana County, New Mexico, just north of the U.S.-Mexico port of entry near El Paso, Texas. . . Dona Ana county commissioners are considering approving a historic $165 billion industrial revenue bond (IRB). The incentive would support building a campus to include four data center buildings powering AI technology and a microgrid energy facility. The chief concerns of those gathering today are water usage, energy demands and transparency. Critics worry about the data centers' cooling needs. Developers say a closed-loop system requires only a one-time fill and minimal ongoing use. Also, the data center campus could consume energy equivalent to the entire county's current usage. The Dona Ana County Commission will meet Friday, Sept. 19 to consider the massive bond package. This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.
E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. Tuesday, September 16, 2025Uballez Throws Shade At City Clerk's Office Over His Failure To Qualify For Public Financing; "The Ref Wasn't Treating Us Fairly" But Offers No Evidence For Claims
No wonder that crushing blow continues to be felt by progressive Democrat Alex Uballez. But his deep disappointment has veered into the bizarre. Uballez implies in a TV interview that the City Clerk's office, charged with overseeing the public financing system, was somehow not on the level in dealing with his effort to qualify. The incendiary accusation from Uballez comes with no evidence offered and Uballez is not claiming that he qualified for the financing. So what gives? He explains his surprising inference about the Clerk this way: You understand the Mayor is the ref (referee), right? The city clerk's office. . . is the one who counted all of our five dollar donations (needed to qualify for the public financing). . . and gave me a call and said, 'hey, there was a clerical error. Some (of the donations you submitted) are going to fall off.' I get it. Clerical errors happen (but) when we looked at the number of qualifying contributions that had fallen off it was over a hundred." Q: Do you believe you did qualify for public financing? A: No. To be clear, when that happened we decided that the ref wasn't treating us fairly so we would have to play by our own rules. The intimation by Uballez that there may have been some kind of wrongdoing in verifying his donations but without specifying exactly how is even more surprising coming as it does from a former New Mexico US Attorney whose job was to prosecute federal crimes. After the Uballez bid for public financing was rejected, Uballez complained about the high number of donations needed to qualify but he did not impugn the Clerk's integrity. At that time the Keller campaign commented that Uballez complaining was like ""blaming the ref because you can't hit your free throws. The real issue isn't the rules. It's the lack of grassroots support, campaign credibility and organizational strength to lead." CASH RACE  An outside PAC supporting his candidacy reported raising $155,000 and had $120,000 in cash on hand. Uballez, forced to rely on private donations, has reported raising $193,000 and had cash on hand of $115,000. NO FRAUD The public financing system for mayoral hopefuls has been criticized for requiring too many qualifying donations--3,780. That threshold should be lowered, says former progressive City Councilor Eric Griego, the architect of the system. However, there have been no claims that the City Clerk--now or in the past--has exhibited bias in determining who has qualified for public money or engaged in any kind of fraud. Among Keller's six opponents on the ballot, Uballez has been seen by analysts as the the main threat to Keller who is seeking a third consecutive term. If no mayoral candidate wins 50 percent of the vote November 4, a runoff between the tow top contenders would be held about a month later. FUDGING UPWARDS
I'm 66. Your parts give out. When your parts give out, you get new parts and I started with the right arm. Actually, the Governor is still 65 and does not turn 66 until October 24. Maybe after nearly seven years on the Fourth Floor she's feeling her age and then some. She wouldn't be the first--nor the last. As for what part of her right arm was replaced, she didn't say. Whatever. She can now use the left arm when she points out legislators not listening to her. This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.
E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. Monday, September 15, 2025Got Keller Fatigue? ABQ Mayor Offers Cure; Says He Won't Seek A Fourth Term; Outlines Key Reasons Why He Should Get A Third. Also: Mayoral Management of APD Shootings Spotlighted
After eight years at the helm Keller, 47, faces six foes on the November 4 ballot all arguing that the incumbent has had more than enough time to resolve the city's aches and pains and that it is time for a change. Of course, Keller argues not so fast. In a PBS interview he delivered the short version of why he wants four more years, one that ABQ voters will be hearing repeatedly in the days ahead: We are making real progress on long-standing generational challenges. . . especially homelessness and crime. That's why we need a little more time. It's that sustained effort of doing the hard work every day that is critical right now because these are such tough times. . . We've made real progress but we have a long ways to go and the initiatives that we have been working so hard on. . . I wish they were done faster but I need a few more years. I think it would be disastrous for us to turn back. TRUMP, KIRK FACTORS As he did during Trump 1.0 iin 2017, Keller again seeks election amid a chaotic and divisive national backdrop and is moving to nationalize the local election. In the process he is also saying he won't be taking a fourth bite out of the apple: We have to have someone who is strong and experienced to stand up to President Trump and I will tell you there are fights weekly with the federal government on a range of issues and I don't think now is the time to try someone new. I really don't. I think we have to hold our city together for three and half years then I am sure it is time for someone else to be mayor. The shocking assassination of conservative influencer Charlie Kirk has pushed the national agenda deeper into the mayoral race. Keller stands to benefit. (Kirk appeared before UNM students in 2022.Video here. A campus memorial service was held for Kirk Saturday.) The Mayor's main competitor for the anti-Trump vote will be fellow progressive Democrat Alex Uballez whose campaign engine stalled in the early going and now must roar back to life if he is to have a chance of getting in a run-off election with Keller. The nationalization of the contest among the other candidates is less clear but Republicans Darren White and Eddie Varela will be aggressive in courting the pro-Trump vote. Conservative Democrats Louie Sanchez and Mayling Armijo have a trickier path. The dream of Team Keller is an anti-Trump wave across the city that pushes him to the 50 percent mark November 4 and avoids a run-off election a month later with the second place finisher. If not that scenario, then a face-off with pro-Trump White is their favored run-off alternative. MAYORAL MANAGEMENT
During the interview he struggled some with his management of APD: Q: Despite all the reforms that have happened under the (DOJ) consent decree Albuquerque officers still killed people at the highest rates of any major metro last year. That would be 14 per one million residents. How is that what reform looks like? A: Reform was about making sure that when there is a wrong use of force officers are held accountable. Reform was not about reducing the number. We (do) want those to go together. We all want less violence. . . whether it's an officer being a perpetrator or not. But the challenge is that's really driven by crime and fentanyl, violence on our streets, guns on our streets and the difference is, is the officer using constitutional policing. Q: But if those are all constitutional uses of force, why does Albuquerque stand out above the rest of the large metros? Why are our officers killing more people? A: Three reasons, guns are more prevalent here than almost anywhere else. Narcotics, which has also been a longstanding challenge and the third reason is domestic violence. . . So we have crime challenges that drive officers feeling, unfortunately,. . .that they have to use constitutional use of force. . . So those two issues . . . overlap but they are distinctly different. While Keller points out crime is coming down, it is apparently not enough to disrupt the record number of police shootings in the city. His critics can and will argue that it is not only high crime but unsuccessful management that is responsible. Keller repeated during his sit down that APD Chief Harold Medina will not be serving in a Keller third term. This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. Thursday, September 11, 2025City Paying To Air Keller Speech On TV May Violate FCC Rules But His Foes Can't Cash In, Plus: White's Cash Coffers Still Short Of The Mark, And: More FeedBack On Universal Childcare Plan
Republican contender Darren White rightfully pointed out in a letter to the stations, including KRQE-TV and KOAT, that coming so close to the November 4 election the address constitutes a political appeal and rallying cry by Keller. The FCC equal time rule is clear that officials in an election cycle can get airtime for "bona fide" news events without triggering the equal time rule but in this case the paid for speech is clearly not that. However the impact of Keller's aggressive move may be academic. The 30 minute speech will air five different times across five stations. That's 150 minutes for each of his opponents--but not for free. The stations are obligated to offer the same amount of time to those candidates but can do so for the same price Keller paid. With most of the campaigns cash-starved and the speech airing in low-watched non primetime slots, there isn't much incentive for Keller's foes to take the stations up on their offer. The KRQE manager says his group of stations stands ready to sell air time to White and the others. To which the reply might be, "well, thanks for nothing." So go moral victories in a political campaign. But why is the city paying to broadcast any State of the City speech? It started during the pandemic when there was some reasoning for it, but with that over and free social media outlets so numerous, that reasoning is in the rear view mirror. Candidate Alex Uballez is calling on Keller's campaign to pay the city back the money spent on the TV time. MORE ON WHITE  At this point a unified GOP would have White with $500,000 in cash. In his Sept. 8 report, White reports total fund-raising of $199,000, spending of $68,000 including $39,000 for services from McCleskey. That left him with cash of $130,000. The big GOP money is simply not flowing to him. His contributions include $20,000 from the owners of the Downs at ABQ, the racetrack and casino that makes their home at the state fairgrounds and that could be moved under plans being studied by MLG. White, who once worked at the Downs, is opposed to moving the fairgrounds. Fund-raising status of all the mayoral candidates is here. ALL IN FOR CHILDCARE Reader KBV offers a counterpoint to the blog reader who Wednesday criticized the Governor's plan to pay for universal child care no matter how high the income of those receiving the subsidy: Joe, While I 100% agree the state and the governor need to “use the same riches to focus next on our most vulnerable children-those in CYFD custody,” I applaud the state’s free childcare program for all. But be bold with our vulnerable babies, too. Regardless of income, NM parents are literally working, contributing to our economy and supporting their families. NM has its struggles with many things, maybe daycare should not be one of them. If I’m not mistaken the NM Lottery for college tuition didn’t have income requirements and a lot of our kids went to our univeristies. They didn’t leave and neither did their parents. Maybe this is the same thing. Lord knows these days our government is giving our hard earned tax dollars to rich people, wouldn’t we rather give our money back to all working parents? I would. Have a good day, Joe. This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.
E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. Wednesday, September 10, 2025Keller And Uballez Step Up Efforts For Progressive Vote; Each Come With Notable Endorsements, Plus: PAC Supporting Mayor Draws Most Donations From Interests Doing Biz With City The endorsement of ABQ Mayor Tim Keller's re-election by US Rep. Melanie Stansbury of ABQ would normally be a yawner but Keller foe Alex Uballez just picked up the endorsement of OLÉ, a leading progressive group that could draw support from Keller's political base. Now comes Stansbury, arguably the central figure among metro area progressives, with a ringing endorsement of Keller who is seeking a third term in November: Mayor Keller has a clear plan for defending Albuquerque from an administration that is freezing funding, deploying troops to American cities, and creating chaos and disruptions to our daily lives. Mayor Keller has provided strong and steady leadership through some of the most tumultuous moments of the last several years, and is prepared to defend Albuquerque and our people from the uncertainties we will face in the coming years. Stansbury also praised Keller's efforts on housing and public safety but she focused on the national impact of the mayoral race which is at the top of the progressive agenda. That's what Keller needs--plenty of chatter about the White House and less about crime and homelessness.  OLÉ is proud to endorse Alex Uballez for Mayor of Albuquerque! Alex is committed to fighting for hard-working Burque families. Together, we can build a city that works for everyone, not just the privileged few. KELLER CASH It's Keller's dominant financial position that has been the killer thus far of any movement to take him down. In addition to the $750,000 in public financing he qualified for--the only one of the seven mayoral contenders to do so--the Ascend ABQ PAC is out on the town raising more money for Keller. As of mid-August they have pulled in $155,000 and had cash on hand of $120,000. Where is the money coming from? The usual suspects--those with significant stakes in city business and the outcome of the election. For example, Robles, Rael & Anaya, a go to law firm for many local government entities, is a major Ascend donor with partners of the firm coming with $30,000 in donations. The firm for years has contracted with the city legal department to provide outside legal services. Two brothers of the Garcia family, owners of car dealerships as well as major downtown ABQ developers, gave $5,000 each. Fresquez Concessions, which holds numerous concessions at the ABQ Sunport gave $15,000. Big labor came with the big money. The New Mexico Building and Construction Trades Council donated $20,000. The United Brotherhood of Carpenters & Joiners of America also donated $20,000 to the Ascend PAC. The Ascend PAC is separate from Keller's public finance account. His campaign is not allowed to coordinate activity with the PAC. THE BIGGEST PROBLEM? We get this reader reaction on MLG's announcement that she will expand the state's free childcare program to include all families even the most affluent: Last Friday the Governor announced the departure of Teresa, Casados, Secretary of CYFD. On Saturday two more babies died. So Monday needing a diversion Governor promotes an idea she has been holding for the right moment--expand free childcare. Context: New Mexico previously expanded free childcare to families earning up to 400% of the federal poverty level ($124,000 annual income). This new announcement extends the benefit to every family statewide, so now all families with income greater than $124,000 per year are eligible. So seemingly the biggest problem we have in our state is families making $124,000 or more a year have to pay for their own childcare. I’ve never seen a state so excited to use tax dollars to give free childcare to families with income greater than $124,000. I hope we use that same richness to focus next on our most vulnerable children--those in CYFD custody who are victims of severe child abuse and/or neglect and babies born drug addicted so we can keep them safe and stop babies and youth from dying. NOT A PUEBLOIn the first posting of the Tuesday blog reporting on the endorsement of Dem Guv candidate Sam Bregman by the Jicarilla Apache Nation, we erroneously referenced the nation as a pueblo. Bregman's endorsements from Native American communities include Sandia Pueblo--one of 19 in the state-- and the Jicarilla Apache Nation, not "two pueblos" as we first stated. This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. Tuesday, September 09, 2025Nakamura Said To Be "Still Interested" In '26 Guv Run But Major Obtacles Loom; One Scenario That Could Get Her In The Race, Plus: Bregman Ratches Up Pressure On Haaland; Comes With Second Major Native American Endorsement
Hull, while well-known in Rio Rancho, is unknown statewide and not the big name that some Republican consultants think could give the Democrats a run for their money. With that in the background, we checked on the status of one of those "big names." Former NM Supreme Court Justice Judith Nakamura said in April that she was "considering" a candidacy but has since been quiet. A senior source familiar with her thinking tells NM Politics with Joe Monahan she is "still interested" in running but there are a lot of considerations for her to weigh. They explain: The irony is that what hurts Nakamura in a GOP primary dominated by hardcore conservatives could actually help her in a statewide race against the Democratic nominee. So would Nakamura have a shot if she were to run? Republican pros say her best bet is if Hull remains the sole major candidate seeking the nomination and that other possibles--like former Lt. Gov. John Sanchez--stay out. They believe Nakamura, 64, could defeat Hull in a one-on-one race despite her baggage with fellow R's because the lure of her beating the Democratic nominee would be hard to resist and because Hull is also known as a moderate R, not a wearer of the MAGA hat. Along with Nakamura Roswell oilman Mark Murphy and healthcare executive Duke Rodriguez say they are "considering" a run. John Sanchez has made no public statements about his intentions. Some video of Nakamura is here. JICARILLAS FOR BREGMAN  This endorsement follows the July bombshell dropped by Sandia Pueblo when they endorsed Bregman over Haaland who would be the first Native American governor in state history. Bregman's campaign quotes Jicarilla President Adrian Notsinneh as telling him: You demonstrated a clear and actionable plan to tackle critical challenges, including crime, substance abuse, and economic development within our communities. Bregman rubbed it in, declaring: I am the only candidate for governor with both a proven track record and a clear vision to deliver results for New Mexico’s tribal communities. I am honored to have received this important endorsement. . .As the tribe with the largest land mass in New Mexico, the Jicarilla Apache Nation support marks the first tribal nation endorsement of the election and a strong sign of Sam’s growing momentum. Haaland has significant Native American support from around the nation, including financially, and she has announced some endorsements of her own: Haaland backers note that women are not traditional leaders in Native American communities and that may be helping Bregman pick up his endorsements. With the official backing of one pueblo and one tribe Bregman continues to dent the Haaland campaign's original thesis that her nomination is inevitable. ABOUT THE JICARILLAS The background: The U.S. Census Bureau counted 2,596 residents in 2022 and 3,176 in more recent estimates. Over 95% of tribal members live in or near Dulce, New Mexico, the tribal headquarters. About half of the members speak the Jicarilla language fluently, primarily older individuals, and around 70% practice an organized religion, often Christianity blended with traditional beliefs. The tribe's population has rebounded from near-extinction threats in the early 20th century, but like many Apache groups, their language is endangered. This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.
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