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Tuesday, October 07, 2025Commentary: KOAT's Exclusion Of Two Mayoral Candidates From their Debate Stage Rests On Shaky Ground And Raises Questions About Station's Fairness Having all six ABQ mayoral candidates on your debate stage October 15 is not unmanageable and is the only fair option. The exclusion of Mayling Armijo and Eddie Varela is unfair and raises questions about your station's objectivity in covering the November 4 city election. KOAT says their 7 P.M. prime time debate will feature only the four "leading candidates"--incumbent Tim Keller and challengers Darren White, Alex Uballez and Louie Sanchez. The exclusion of Armijo and Varela is based on the recent ABQ Journal poll--a cosponsor of KOAT debates--that shows Varela pulling only 2 percent and Armijo just one percent. The problem? All the challengers have very weak numbers. Uballez and Sanchez are only getting 6 percent, second place finisher White scores a humbling 16 percent and Keller is first with 29 percent. The station seems to be saying that there is no chance of either Varela or Armijo to advance in the election which could result in a run-off if no candidate secures 50 percent--a likely occurrence. Political observers would agree that Armijo and Varela have less chance than the other Keller challengers of advancing but neither are nuisance or vanity candidates who should be banned from the debate airwaves. Heck, when Trump was first seeking the GOP presidential nomination there was 17 unique candidates participating in 12 televised debates (some of which included both a main stage and an undercard). There is a way of doing this to fully serve the voters of Albuquerque. SHOWING UP
Armijo is a New Mexico native, a veteran of the US Navy who served as Director of Economic Development for Bernalillo County. She also served as Deputy County Manager for Sandoval County. Her friends and family have contributed $120,000 to a PAC in support of her candidacy. Varela is a retired firefighter with 30 years experience, including service as Deputy Chief for AFD and Fire Chief for Barstow, California. He has also served on the city council of Reserve, NM. These are not frivolous people. They are just unknown, just as Alex Uballez and Louie Sanchez are mostly unknown. The debate takes on added importance because it will apparently be the only prime time mayoral debate on KOAT, KOB or KRQE--the three major network affiliated stations with news departments, The exclusion of Armijo, the only woman in the race, and Varela for the convenience of KOAT is unmerited and raises the question of fairness at the ABC affiliate, a question that has already surfaced because of the relationship of KOAT investigative producer T.J. Wilham with former Sheriff White. White--during the non election season--has been regularly featured by Wilham and KOAT as a guest expert on a wide range of law enforcement issues. Wilham was White's right hand man during the Republican mayoral administration of Richard Berry, serving as Public Safety Communications Director under White who was Chief Public Safety Director from 2009-2011. Wilham later became the Director of APD's Real Time Crime Center before joining KOAT-TV as an investigative producer and reporter in 2018 when Keller took over as mayor. In his official bio on the station's website, Wilham's high profile position with White is not mentioned. CONCERNING DECISION
It is also concerning that KOAT, led by a prominent African American broadcaster, is excluding a Hispanic ABQ native like Varela and Armijo, a native New Mexico woman of Asian-Hispanic heritage, in one of the most majority-minority cities in the US. KOAT needs to look in the mirror and remind itself that it serves under a federal license that requires them to serve the "public interest." Excluding two ABQ residents who have proven they are serious about the future of this city is not in the public interest, is unfair and a rebuke of KOAT's long tradition of fairness and inclusiveness. KOAT should let Armijo and Varela say their piece. They've earned it. And let the other candidates urge the station to reverse course. ACCURATE AD Reader Ralph Moller writes of Monday's blog on Mayor Keller's first TV ad: Joe, I was disappointed that you did not comment on the accuracy of the Mayor's ad. If all true, it sounds pretty impressive. Or is there some context I'm missing? It would be helpful to get your input. Keller's ad about his programs appears to be accurate. The context is the positive results of those programs that are implied in the ad and that led to the critical insights of the message. Hope that is helpful, Ralph. I'm Joe Monahan reporting from Albuquerque and. . . This is the Home of New Mexico Politics. Monday, October 06, 2025A Boastful Mayor Keller Ignores The Field But Takes On Media And ICE In First TV Ad; Says His Accomplishments Are Not Being Heard; Ad Takes On Happy Days Tone; Critics Call It Audacious A feeble opposition has prompted ABQ Mayor Tim Keller to embrace a "happy days are here again" narrative in his first TV ad, backing off his previous tone where he boasted of progress but with the caveat that serious challenges remain. In spot #1 any bow to his many skeptics is gone and the boasting is effusive. There is even come cocky confidence and blame-shaming as Keller chides the media, claiming, "we are getting a lot more done than the news media is telling you about." The ad features a young Hispanic woman posing as a peppy news reporter as she runs through a "pop quiz" with a beaming Keller by her side. The transcript: Pop Quiz. True or false. Tim Keller created the nation's first community safety department with mental helth responders. The police are freed up to fight crime. He created before and after-school programs for over ten thousand children, twenty-five hundred affordable housing units and shelter with addiction treatment for 1,000 homeless. He's also blocking ICE if they don't have a warrant. Keller: We're getting a lot more done than the news media is telling you about. Keller supporters will see the ad that sugarcoats homelessness and the high rate of violent crime as reasonably balanced when contrasted with his record. The critics, like several emailers here, will view it as audacious and the result of a political system so awash in apathy (and a failed Republican party) that it has produced no candidates who are a threat to Keller or an unsatisfactory status quo. Keller may not see a legitimate opponent in the field of candidates but he does need foils to finger because so many folks (over 60 percent) believe the city is headed in the wrong direction. In addition to alleged news media bias, his declaration about ICE adds President Trump to his target list. Dem consultant David Alcon is tracking the action: Keller is trying to set this up as a retention election where the opponents on the ballot continue to be ignored and where voters are simply asked to give him credit for his record. Having Trump hanging out there is a bonus. With no alternative messaging being heard, the strategy is sound. Keller essentially adopting the "stop bagging and start bragging" slogan is actually a defiant posture candy-wrapped in his pop quiz. The mayor's reasoning is that he has done everything that can be done--and done it right--to address crime and homelessness and that the city must now bend to his version of reality. It is confrontational with no opposition to seriously confront him. The political reality is that for many voters this campaign so far is like going to a restaurant with one item on the menu. Order it or walk away. GETTING SOCIAL Dem candidate Alex Uballez can't yet afford to go on broadcast TV like Keller but he does come with an ad for the socials "featuring Alex's mother-in-law, Peggy Lopez, sharing her twenty year relationship with Alex and what she's witnessed in their family and his career." The ad is here. IMPORTING POLITICOS  If you do not believe the Democratic Party has a new generation of leaders, you are not paying attention. Our state party vice chair is 24 and the Bernalillo County chair is 25. . .To suggest we should “import” politicos is an insult to New Mexico. We are not the Republican Party. The Democratic Party of New Mexico supports, trains, and pushes young people—and it’s not just chairs and vice chairs. I am 19 and have done consulting work from school-board races to statewide races, I have represented the State on the National Level with the DNC. The future of the state is in good hands. The claim that New Mexico is “running out of politicians” is wrong. It ignores what’s happening on the ground: young organizers, first-time candidates, and newly elected leaders are building the bench in cities, pueblos, and rural communities alike. That’s the pipeline. It’s already working. We joked that if McClure's plan can bring new politicos here then some of them should also be badly needed doctors. But that was no joke for physician Anjali Tenaja who writes: I think we can grow our own (politicians)! I am a family physician who ran for the NM state House (District HD 18), in last year's Democratic primary. I have also been keenly interested in how we support healthcare workers (physicians and others) to run for office. We critically need healthcare expertise at the state and local levels. Physicians and other healthcare workers also bring lived experience around healthcare and healthcare delivery in NM. A few of us have been informally discussing how to encourage and support healthcare workers to run. Thanks for noting how important it is to get doctors into office to help change policy and the course of things here in NM. THE BOTTOM LINES You didn't miss much but what action there was at last week's special legislative session that ended Thursday is here and here. This is the Home of New Mexico Politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. Thursday, October 02, 2025Clippings From Our Newsroom Floor: Mayor Keller's Various Poll Ratings Explained, Some Charter School Power And A Plan To Import Politicos The Research and Polling survey conducted Sept. 19-26 gives Keller a 42 percent approval rating and 47 percent disapproval. The paper notes that his approval in their polling in 2018 was 61 percent; 60 percent in October 2020 and 50 percent in 2021 when he won his second term. But they don't mention their poll released November 2, 2022 that gave Keller a dismal approval rating of just 33 percent. Flash forward three years and he is up nearly ten points from that mark to 42 percent. For purposes of this election cycle Keller's approval rating has actually been on an up slope, coinciding with a moderate drop in crime stats from historic levels. Still, in the Journal's candidate horse race Keller polled at 29 percent, well below his approval rating. But with a month of heavy paid media coming on his behalf and negative campaigning against him not expected to match that output, Keller's low number for Election Night could be around that 42 percent mark. Could he get to 50 percent and avoid a run-off as Democratic analyst David Alcon argues? He could, if the negative campaign against him doesn't stick. Alcon points out that Keller's approval rating among Democrats in the new poll is 54 percent. He says: Dem City Councilor Louie Sanchez is the best performing native ABQ Hispanic candidate but he is only polling at 6 percent while Daniel Chavez has dropped out and Republican Eddie Varela is at two percent. Alex Uballez also polled at 6 percent. CHARTER POWER Matthew Pahl, Executive Director Public Charter Schools of New Mexico, writes: Hi Joe, longtime reader, first time emailer. I'm writing to share that New Mexico's public charter schools are demonstrating the power of school choice. A poll by Research and Polling last fall found that 73% of New Mexicans support expanding public charter schools in their communities. Families are seeing the benefits of school-level decision-making and mission-driven education, which foster stronger connections and better outcomes. Charter schools consistently outperform traditional district schools, especially among economically disadvantaged students, who read at proficient levels 5 percentage points higher. Over 10% of New Mexico students are now enrolled in charter schools, with enrollment growing annually. Despite misconceptions, charter schools in New Mexico are public schools and are held to rigorous accountability standards—including oversight by elected authorizers and the same performance and governance requirements as all public schools in the state. IMPORT POLITICOS  Joe, the dissatisfaction with mayoral, candidates suggests a larger problem in New Mexico. We’re running out of politicians. The legislature refuses to address the state’s largest problems such as crime and the shortage of medical care. No candidate running for governor promises any significant change. Our Congressional delegation spends more time fighting the federal government than participating in it. The only reason the voters don’t throw these people out of office is that there’s nobody else to vote for. It’s unlikely New Mexico will produce a new generation of leaders when our smartest young people are leaving the state. So here’s a modest proposal: Import a fresh crop of politicians. We need a bipartisan organization to identify promising people in other states – such as up-and-coming Democrats in Texas and Republicans in California -- and offer them incentives to move to New Mexico. If they can work remotely for out-of-state employers, so much the better. The political parties can introduce them to green chile and groom them to run for office in a few years. (This would require Republicans to organize an actual political party.) This probably sounds far-fetched, but if a New Mexico town can name itself after a television show, anything is possible. Jim, how about we recruit doctors with politician ambitions and kill two birds with one stone? This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. Wednesday, October 01, 2025Hot Button Healthcare Item Has Senate Majority Leader Feeling Heat; Makes A Closely Watched Promise On Medical Compacts; Guv Puts Item On Special Session Agenda But Only For "Study", Plus: Complete Special Session Agenda
Wirth's woes began when he fought the move to place on today's special session agenda the adoption of interstate compacts for doctors and other health care workers. Those are agreements among states to accept medical licenses from other states that have adopted the compacts. An example would be a doctor licensed in Texas showing that license to the NM Medical Board and quickly getting licensed here. The problem is that Wirth is a noted Santa Fe trial attorney, a profession that has opposed the compacts despite their adoption in over 40 other states. The lawyers oppose a provision that prevents them from suing the interstate compact commissions, the boards that oversee each compact. Against that backdrop the Democratic leader stiffened his spine and came with this retort against his opponents: Healthcare policy should not be held hostage to short-term grant deadlines. Making permanent changes to professional licensing standards based on temporary funding availability and an ever-changing set of rules coming from the federal government sets a dangerous precedent. (Lawmakers) need the time between the special session and January to examine how the compacts would interact with New Mexico’s existing laws and ensure changes serve providers and patients long-term. Trouble is the compacts easily passed the House last session but were thwarted in the Senate by maneuvering over amendments. Then there's Wirth's fellow Democrat, MLG, saying she wanted the compacts considered at the special session but could not include the item in her agenda because it would be blocked by "legislative leaders." The Governor does list the compacts on her special session agenda but only for study not legislative action: Back to Senator Wirth. The dam could not hold and he soon changed his tune as a backlash developed. His new and improved statement brought forth the promise that is now under the microscope: I do support the medical compacts. I think that’s priority number one, and we’re going to get that done in January and work hard between now and then to make it happen. But it’s just not ready to go at this point in the special session. No wonder there was political backlash to Wirth's initial reticence. New Mexicans across the state are bemoaning the lack of doctors, swapping horror stories about months-long waits to see a provider or having to take themselves or their sick kids in need of specialists across state lines. And getting on Zoom is not an option if the Doc is not licensed here. To block a relatively simple measure like the compacts that could make a dent in the doctor shortage is untenable for the Democrats. That the Republicans have signed on to the compacts makes matters worse for them. COMPACT BINOCULARS Approving the compacts would not be the waving of a magic wand but it is a step to directly addressing the lack of doctors available to see the sick. Wirth's pledge to "get that done" means the majority leader can take his back off the Roundhouse walls for now, but it will be right back on them if his day job interferes with his pledge to take action (and not action that butchers the compacts.) Fred Nathan of Think Mexico already has his binoculars on and remains worried: Stay tuned. A DIFFERENT ANGLE  A more impactful solution, particularly for New Mexicans seeking out-of-state care, would be to automatically license physicians at major medical centers to practice in NM. This would enable patients who travel for care to legally receive telemedicine follow-up consultations. Examples of major medical centers include MD Anderson Cancer Center and Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center for cancer care; The Steadman Clinic and Hospital for Special Surgery for orthopedic care; and the Mayo Clinics and Cleveland Clinic for a wide range of conditions. Surely someone knowledgable in public health issues could develop suitable criteria or a list of centers. Thanks David. Good luck with your healthcare journey. SPECIAL AGENDA Here is the Governor's complete special session agenda as released by her office:--Rural Health Care Delivery Fund expansion: Amending the Rural Health Care Delivery Fund to allow for grants to health care providers and facilities in high-needs geographic health professional shortage areas and stabilize the provision of existing health care services. --Health insurance exchange eligibility: Adjusting eligibility requirements for participating in the New Mexico health insurance exchange. --Vaccine standards: Requiring rules for the immunization of children attending school or child care to be based on the recommendations of the New Mexico Department of Health, allowing the Department of Health to set vaccination standards for adults, and requiring vaccines purchased pursuant to the statewide vaccine purchasing program to be recommended by the Department of Health. --Federal budget cuts response: Appropriating funds to respond to recent federal budget cuts. --Western New Mexico University Board of Regents: Confirming regents to the Western New Mexico University Board of Regents.  --Behavioral health legal proceedings: Appropriating funds to the Administrative Office of the Courts for a competency pilot program and behavioral health support for parties in legal proceedings. --Appropriation Contingency Fund: Transferring funds into the Appropriation Contingency Fund to ensure New Mexico has money set aside for emergency response. --Regulation and Licensing Department funding: Appropriating funds to supplement the New Mexico Regulation and Licensing Department's budget. --Interstate medical licensing compact: Studying and preparing for the implementation of any interstate medical licensing compact. --Legislative expenses: Appropriating funds for the expenses of the Fifty-Seventh Legislature, First Special Session, 2025. The New Mexican has a play by play on each item. THE BOTTOM LINES Now there are six, but the names of seven mayoral candidates will still be on the November 4 ABQ election ballot. The candidacy of Daniel Chavez has imploded as the candidate deals with a battery charge and the ABQ Journal poll that had him receiving only 1 percent of the vote. He cited that poll--not his legal troubles--as the reason for ending his mayoral run. Coming as late as his withdrawal does, his name will remain on the ballot. This is the Home of New Mexico Politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. Tuesday, September 30, 2025Special Session Scored As Trump Bashing Party But Major DC Health Care Cuts Loom Over Roundhouse, Plus: Medicaid For New Mexico's Future; Strategies Weighed That question has been repeated and answered by state Republicans who say MLG's decision to call a special is simply an opportunity to bash Trump. Senate Minority Leader Bill Sharer claims the session is about "fantasy worries" and says no New Mexican will lose Medicaid or food stamps for at least 18 months. To me, this session is really just to stand up there and talk about how evil Trump is because there’s nothing that needs to be fixed right now. No doubt the Democratic majority will have sharp words for the Trump presidency and Sharer's concern about an overtly political session resonate but shocking numbers repeatedly cited by Sen. Martin Heinrich give pause to that concern. What's coming down the tracks looks like a locomotive filled with dynamite ready to explode on impact--special session or not. Heinrich, whose estimates come from the NM Health Care Authority and other experts, has been ringing the bell for months on the potential crisis, saying the state is in line to lose $4 billion in federal Medicaid funding each year over the next five years--a $20 billion hit. The forthcoming cuts to Medicaid--if accurate and if they stand--are an existential threat to the state's finances even as we rake in billions from oil and gas. The stunning cuts reflect New Mexico's status as a welfare state with more residents (40 percent) dependent on the program than any other. The program costs about $10 billion annually. The Feds cover two-thirds ($6–7 billion). A $4 billion annual cut would wipe out half the federal share and leave the state staring at an estimated 90,000 people losing benefits, according to Heinrich. It would be a generational tragedy if the ample state reserves built up in various funds had to be drawn down to make up for humongous federal cuts, not to mention the possibility of tax increases. The Trump administration says the cuts target "waste, fraud, and abuse," including stricter work requirements for able-bodied adults and reduced funding for undocumented immigrants. The special session will, as Sen. Sharer asserts, spend plenty of time on non urgent issues. For example, appropriating money to make up for federal public broadcasting cuts could wait until the January session. But if the session makes progress in raising awareness about what may be one of our most pressing financial challenges than it could be worth the drive up La Bajada. THE FUTURE MEDICAID
Joe, the last time New Mexico truly reformed Medicaid was in 1997, when I was Cabinet Secretary and we converted a bloated fee-for-service program into a managed care system. Since then, there have been no meaningful changes — only cosmetic rebrands. Medicaid has multiplied ten fold in size and cost. Providers are leaving, patients can’t get appointments, and outcomes are flat. The strategy: --Run Medicaid as a pharmacy benefit manager (PBM). Other states have cut out pharmacy middlemen and saved hundreds of millions. West Virginia saved $54M in its first year, Ohio uncovered $224M/year in spread pricing, and New York projects $500M+ annually. New Mexico should do the same, with full rebate pass-through and caps on reimbursable executive pay. --Our managed care contracts must be rebid with accountability baked in. That means penalties, bonuses, secret shopper audits, and transparency. And no more underwriting golden parachutes: Presbyterian’s CEO was paid $4.5M in one year, while Molina’s CEO pocketed a $181M package built on Medicaid revenues. “If managed care means mismanaged money and million-dollar CEO payouts, we rebid the contracts and change the rules.” --Medicaid should only serve those lawfully entitled to benefits. That means real-time eligibility checks, consistent redeterminations, and integration with SNAP. Every ineligible enrollee drains resources from those truly in need. “Medicaid is for the eligible — not everyone who slips through the cracks.” --Massachusetts and Oregon have capped Medicaid growth at 3–4% annually. New Mexico must do the same. Families and businesses can’t outspend their paychecks — neither should Santa Fe. “A sustainable Medicaid program lives within its means.” --About 5% of enrollees consume 50% of all spending. These patients need smarter, integrated care — “health homes,” predictive analytics, and case management to cut ER overuse, duplicate testing, and readmissions. “Care for the sickest better — and spend smarter while we do it.” --The LFC has revealed Medicaid IT modernization costs ballooning to over $800M, with delays into FY27 and no evidence of better access. That’s nearly a billion dollars on back-office systems while patients still can’t get an appointment. Future RFPs must push IT costs onto vendors, integrate systems with SNAP, and include clawbacks if results don’t materialize. --We’ve spent $2.2B on provider rate hikes with more than $1B going to hospitals. Yet patients still face long waits and too few providers. Any future raises must be contingent on measurable improvements in access and outcomes. “Bigger checks must buy better care. No results, no raise.” Other states have already proven these reforms work. New Mexico has simply lacked the will. The last time we fixed Medicaid, it lasted a generation. Now, the costs are higher, the problems deeper, and the stakes even greater. The question is whether we will treat Medicaid reform with the urgency it deserves. If we don’t, nothing else — not classrooms, not roads, not water, not wages — will have the oxygen to succeed. This is the Home of New Mexico Politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. Monday, September 29, 2025A Dissatsified City Is Also Dissatisfied With Mayoral Choices; Journal Poll Shows Undecided Voters Exceptionally High; Keller Leads But Draws Just 29 Percent As His Foes Lag Far Behind; Election '25 News And Analysis Is Up Next
A city dissatisfied with the direction it's going in is also dissatisfied with the choices to lead the city for the next four years. The dreary details are revealed in the ABQ Journal poll of the November 4 mayoral race, showing none of the seven candidates could even manage 30 percent of the vote. Also, in what appears to be an historic high for this stage of a mayoral campaign, 37 percent of likely voters polled describe themselves as undecided. Granted, there hasn't been much of a campaign and the race should grow more heated In October but no one is expecting fireworks. Mayor Tim Keller, seeking an unprecedented third consecutive four year term, is in a fight with himself. His low approval ratings are haunting him as Keller only pulls 29 percent of the vote despite having nearly universal name ID. The problem is illustrated with this social media reaction to the poll from Brett Hendrickson: Keller has had 8 years to clean up the city and now wants another 4 years. Where is the logic in giving him another term? I don’t trust polling. Driving down Central, Zuni, and Menaul is enough for anyone to want change. Keller's campaign said of the poll: Our campaign is strong, our message is resonating, and Mayor Tim Keller is in the lead. In a crowded field of seven, Tim is the clear frontrunner. . . 37% of voters are still undecided. That means this race is far from over. And with Darren White — a Trump lackey who represents a dangerous, backwards vision for Albuquerque — in second place, it’s clear what’s at stake. The landscape still points to Democrat Keller coming in first but getting 50 percent of the vote in order to avoid a run-off election with probable second place finisher Darren White remains a steep climb. White, however, is worse off. The former sheriff's 16 percent support is half of what the main GOP candidate in the contest could expect at this point. That he is nowhere close to that level speaks to the high pile of negative baggage he's accumulated with fellow Republicans during his time in the public eye including his controversial move into the legal marijuana business That makes any Keller-White run-off already looking like a fait accompli for the incumbent.
Mayling Armijo, Daniel Chavez and Eddie Varela are polling at one or two percent. The Journal showed those levels of support among Dems, Republicans and indys. That makes the trio nonfactors in the contest. Progressive former US Attorney Alex Uballez falls flat, garnering a mere 6 percent of the vote. He now has to determine how fluid the electorate is, if he can make a major move and muster the necessary money. A tough position but still a lingering threat if something big should happen. His campaign said of the survey: This election will be decided by the 37% of likely voters who are still undecided and the unlikely voters we recruit into the project of democracy. Predictably, the top two candidates currently are the incumbent with only 29% support and Darren White with only 16% support. . .Any poll done this far out from the election is more a measure of name recognition than it is support. Alex’s main competition in this race is name recognition, nothing else. For now Trump does not appear to be strongly motivating the progressive vote. Keller, who gets 43 percent Democratic support in the survey, will work to change that as will Uballez. MONEY MATTERS The Mayor is the only candidate who can really do much of anything in the final stretch because he is the only hopeful with any significant money. He was the only one to qualify for over $750,000 in public financing when the others failed. They then failed to raise money from a public they have yet to impress. As of September 8 Keller had $654,000 in public financing still left to spend and an outside PAC supporting his candidacy reported $120,000 in cash. That's $774,000 of messaging power versus White's $130,000 in cash; Sanchez's $149K and $116,000 for Uballez. The Journal poll could make raising additional money to take on Keller even more difficult. Keller will likely be the only candidate with a significant TV ad campaign. The vast majority of voters in a mayoral race are well over 50 and watch local TV news stations and their network programming. Younger voters, much less likely to vote, are not big TV watchers but are glued to social media. The lack of enthusiasm or even the disdain for the mayoral field drew this comment from longtime political analyst and Santa Fe attorney Greg Payne: After this poll Keller ought to change his campaign slogan to "Better the Devil You Know." GETTING TO 50
Here is a closer look at that extraordinary 37 percent of voters who say they are still undecided. When those undecided voters were asked which candidate they were leaning toward, most still said they were not sure. But with those who did express a “lean” factored in, Keller’s support in the survey rose to 35%, with White’s support at roughly 19%. Even after the "leans" are accounted for 29 percent of voters remain undecided. That signals a low voter turnout, well below the 120,000 who voted for mayor in 2021. That favors Keller's political machine which is well-financed and can target the most likely voters with expensive mail and TV. Ordinarily most analysts would not entertain the thought of having no run-off election in a seven candidate field but the massive financial mismatch and the weakness of the opposing campaigns still keeps some hope alive in the Keller camp that they can get him to an outright majority. The Journal has Keller’s approval rating at 42%, up about 10% from a couple of years ago so that also puts the 50% mark on the table. That may be the most suspenseful question going forward unless his challengers can somehow reverse course in roughly the month remaining on the '25 election calendar Th Journal polled 514 likely city voters Sept. 19-26. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent. 96 percent of voters polled were reached by cell phone and 4 percent by landlines. This is the Home of New Mexico Politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. Thursday, September 25, 2025Poll Says Santa Fe Voters Are Very Unhappy Over City's Direction and Turning To Michael Garcia In Mayor's Race; He Sports A Solid Lead And Challengers Appear To Face Steep Climb Catching
The Garcia surge to replace two-term Mayor Alan Webber was actually recorded Aug18-24 in a poll conducted on behalf of the Santa Fe Realtors Association, but the group did not release the survey until this week. When they did it was a jaw dropper because Garcia appeared considerably ahead. There is another catch to the poll by American Strategies which does polling for real estate groups nationally. They did not have a horse race question, matching the contenders against each other. Instead they chose to ask voters if they rated the candidates favorably or unfavorably. Garcia fared far better than any other candidate in the race, with 14% of voters rating him "very favorably" and 29% "somewhat favorably." Ron Trujillo ranked second, with 31% finding him favorable (8% very favorable), and JoAnne Vigil Coppler third, with 28% finding her favorable (5% very favorable). This is Trujillo's second try for mayor. He is an anti-Webber populist but Garcia is doing better at bottling the anger of voters. The other four candidates, including progressive Santa Fe County Commissioner Justin Greene, were largely unknown to those polled. All the hopefuls have only about a month to turn the race around. That will take a hearty Stop Garcia movement featuring high octane negative messaging to reverse the trend, say experts such as Sana Fe Fe attorney, former state legislator and political consultant Greg Payne: I think it's an uphill battle for all of the Garcia challengers. If I had to predict today, I'd say Garcia wins. But my main take away from this poll is, the people of Santa Fe are pissed off. Mayor Webber is seen as a total failure. Payne's perception is grounded in this finding of the poll of 400 Santa Fe registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent: As we've commented of late crime and homelessness in Santa Fe are starting to remind us of how ABQs problems accelerated with the same issues and contue to challenge the city today. Garcia can't wave a magic wand but as a pragmatic centrist with a masters in public administration, he said he plans to restore stable management to the city which has he says has been hampered under Webber. His mantra on improving basic city services is apparently catching fire. On homelessness he says he would like to pursue a plan that is similar to ABQ's Gateway Center where a variety of services are offered to assist people start anew rather than simply providing temporary shelters. The front running Garcia is not without baggage. He has developed a reputation for confrontation over unity and he has bailed on some key council votes on key issues like crime. But overall he projects confidence and competence and most important, he is not a woke progressive like Webber who after eight years has worn out his welcome. That Garcia and Trujillo are the two candidates who poll the best also may speak to a yearning by City Different voters to have a native son with deep roots in the community take the helm. Garcia is not a businessman, his career has been in the nonprofit world, but he is fond of saying running a city is not a business and points to Webber's experience as a wealthy entrepreneur in administering the city and coming up short. He gives the mayor's performance an F minus. MLG recently endorsed her old friend Joanne Vigil Coppler for mayor but that is seen as a personal nod and having little impact on the race. For Garcia, who was also ahead in the only other public poll released over the summer, now needs to avoid a foot-in-the-mouth moment, take his positive numbers and steer to victory. For the challengers the heavy guns must be fired to slow his march but with no big money poised to do that, a win could be in store for the 45 year old Garcia. Here is video of a recent in-depth interview done with Garcia. American Strategies says it uses in-person telephoning, online sampling and text messaging to compile their surveys. This is the Home of New Mexico Politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. Wednesday, September 24, 2025Dem Light Guv Race Would Be A Slugfest If SOS Joins Land Commissioner In Contest; Stephanie Answers Maggie's Tease With Name Endorsement, Plus: Udall And Kenny Thomas Pop Into Guv Race
State Land Commissioner Stephanie Garcia Richard has been in the race since March and is of no mind to end her political career at the hands of the SOS. The two Dem titans both boast good name ID and political savvy. The race would be fierce. Even without a formal entry Toulouse Oliver has rattled Garcia Richard's cage. As soon as MTO publicly dangled her possible run the twice elected land commissioner rolled out an endorsement from former Dem US Senator Jeff Bingaman seemingly designed to send MTO a message not to get in. Actor Jane Fonda, a fave of progressives and Anglo boomer women, is also backing Garcia Richard. She once lived here and her former husband, Ted Turner, has extensive state land holdings. MTO is a former two term Bernalillo County Clerk and a twice elected Secretary of State who terms out at the end of 2026. Her base is the biggest voting county in the state and she may believe it gives her the edge in a primary. She did, however, lose statewide in 2014 when she lost the SOS race to Republican Dianna Duran. If this match-up happens, it could be a fight to the political death. Both would be so bloodied by the end that recovering from defeat would be improbable. THREE WAY RACE  Either Garcia Richard or Toulouse Oliver could handle the sparse duties of lieutenant governor but if they think it could be the gateway to being elected Governor, history is a harsh reminder. No #2 in modern state history has gone up that ladder. Both of them are long-term public employees and getting a four year gig (or eight) would get them closer to the years they need to enhance their PERA checks. Speaking of endorsements, former US Senator Tom Udall, 77, wants a fellow progressive to advance to the governorship so he has come out for Deb Haaland. He did so on the very day that that Haaland opponent Sam Bregman was announcing his 189 page Blueprint for New Mexico and when Bregman also came with a name endorsement. Basketball legend Kenny Thomas gave him the nod. The two endorsements restate the obvious in the Guv campaign--Haaland is the fave of most women and progressives while Bregman and Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima are more favored by men and centrists. This is the Home of New Mexico Politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. Tuesday, September 23, 2025Dem Guv Candidate Bregman Supports Bill To Let Out Of State Doctors And Other Healthcare Workers Practice Here; Trial Lawyers May Be Softening Opposition But MLG Says No Deal Struck With Key Dem Senators To Put It On Special Session Agenda The question surfaced again after '26 Dem Guv candidate Sam Bregman last week released his Blueprint for New Mexico. He said, if elected, he would support the state adopting interstate health compacts that would allow doctors and other medical practitioners outside New Mexico to see patients here. Bregman is now the BernCo District Attorney, but previously he was a high-profile trial lawyer. His support for the state signing on to the compacts comes amid talk that the NM Trial Lawyers Association, many of whose members support a PAC to fight medical malpractice reforms, apparently is no longer opposed to the compacts. That could make the moment ripe for Gov. Lujan Grisham to get the proposal before the special session of the legislature that she has called for October 1. MLG said Monday she would put the issue on the special session agenda if legislative leadership agreed but they don't. That kicks it to the regular session in January. Here is video of her statement. The trial lawyers have been concerned that compacts shields the commissions running them from lawsuits, which endangers accountability. Their critics say they are more worried about losing their shot at big settlements. 43 other sates have already signed off on various compacts. ROUNDHOUSE STALL State Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Joe Cervantes, a trial attorney, has been adamant in his opposition to the compacts and has stalled them after they cleared the House unanimously. He teamed with fellow trial attorney and ABQ Dem Senator Katy Duhigg to pile on amendments. At the last session 10 medical compacts were considered that would have opened the state's doors to doctors, psychologists, physical and occupational therapists, dentists and more. Cervantes did not respond to an inquiry to determine if his stance has changed. Senate Majority Leader Peter Wirth, also a trial attorney, said the issue should wait until January: We need the time to examine how interstate compacts would interact with New Mexico’s existing laws and ensure that any changes truly serve the long-term interests of providers and patients. Cervantes later came with this comment:  The state has taken measures to allow more out of state physicians access but compact proponents say it is nowhere near enough and that it is long overdue for the state to join the Interstate Medical Licensure Compact that allows medical practitioners licensed in other states to practice here. The doctor shortage is most severe in rural areas. The compacts, supporters say, could see border communities attract more doctors to provide care. Examples include doctors going from Durango to Farmington and from El Paso to Las Cruces. Trial lawyers have also been fighting against medical malpractice insurance reforms. They may be willing to offer the compacts as a compromise as their standing with the public comes under pressure. At least that's the buzz that is building. But the Governor and Cervantes working together seems critical to pushing the compacts over the line, As for malpractice reform, in his blueprint Bregman does not embrace it, saying there is "no silver bullet" for the doctor shortage. However, he does propose tax credits for physicians facing escalating insurance premiums for malpractice coverage. This is the Home of New Mexico Politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. Monday, September 22, 2025First Scientific Poll Coming In ABQ Mayoral Race; Sunday Release Slated As Keller Challengers Still Scurry For Funds And Recognition, Plus: Massive Project Jupiter At State Border Wins Approval
Longtime Research and Polling President Brian Sanderoff confirms the poll will be out Sunday, Sept. 28. That's the good news. The bad news is it may be the only one. "Just one poll is planned at this time." He said. For those new to New Mexico and polling here, Sanderoff, 71, has been polling the state for the Journal for 40 years. Pundit Nate Silver's 2025 ratings of 27 national polling firms ranks Research and Polling as the fourth most accurate in the nation. That's heady territory for a New Mexico based business. The firm relies on in-person phone calls to prospective voters, the most accurate method of determining how they may vote. A scientific poll with a randomized and representative sample, rigorous methodology, and statistical weighting for accuracy--is a specialized service. There are not many firms around anymore that do it, with more reliance on the Internet for surveys. The personal phone polling is expensive with cost of a basic city survey estimated to easily reach $30,000 and more as the poll adds questions. As the newspaper industry has been downsized the Journal polls have been less frequent than past election cycles but at least one is conducted for the major elections and usually includes a list of issues that are covered over a week. That can't be easy but the paper, to their credit and their readers' benefit, have stayed the course. Sanderoff is also a political analyst for KOAT-TV but these days politics is only a small part of his company's business which also works for a wide variety of major corporate and government entities. STATE OF THE RACE
The Journal survey should pinpoint that support demographically and also indicate who is most likely to get into a run-off with Keller, if the Mayor fails to reach the 50 percent mark but does come in first or second. Whatever the poll shows, it will be difficult for the challengers to act upon the results. All of them are under-financed. Keller is now spending over $750,000 he qualified for under public financing and an outside PAC supporting him had $120,000 in cash at last report. Republican Darren White and Democrat Louie Sanchez, who has donated a hefty $150,000 in personal funds to his campaign, are both up with radio ads. Keller's campaign has signs dotting front yards around the city and Alex Uballez has a few as well. But most of the campaign has been taking place on social media which is a shot in the dark when it comes to reaching the most likely voters. That will now begin to change with paid media (and negative campaigning) becoming more noticeable. Early voting at the County Clerk's Annex begins October 7. That is also when absentee ballots will be mailed to city voters already on the list. To get an absentee ballot (the deadline to request is Oct. 21) info is here. In-person citywide voting begins Oct. 18. Election Day is November 4. History says well over half the vote will be cast before then. As for TV debates, none have been publicly announced. If any are held and all seven candidates attend, it would be hard for any of them to get an advantage. Often the stations pass on doing debates with such a large field or confine it to digital platforms. THE FORUMS  That will change with forums now scheduled where all or most of the candidates are expected to attend and which should generate media coverage. September 30--The business group NM NAIOP will host the candidates at the ABQ Sheraton Uptown, an event that is usually well-attended and reported on. Journal editor Jay Newton-Small will moderate. October 7--Bike ABQ & Strong Towns will conduct a a mayoral forum at 6 p.m. at the First Congregational United Church of Christ. October 16--The Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors® (GAAR) conduct their mayoral forum at 9 a.m at the GAAR Event Center. Tickets are available via the link. JUPITER A GO  Opposition has centered on energy and water issues and tax incentives seen as too generous. But at a tense public meeting the Commission approved the bonds on a 4-1 vote, citing the 750 permanent jobs that the project is predicted to generate as well as a significant increase to the tax base of the poverty-stricken region. The money would be invested over a 30 year period with a $50 billion pop at the beginning. Austin-based BorderPlex Digital Assets is the company making the investment. They will not pay property taxes on the 1,400-acre campus and instead pay the county $360 million over 30 years--$12 million annually. AI developer STACK Infrastructure, owned by private equity firm Blue Owl Capital is a partner with BorderPlex. The enormous numbers involved are representative of the massive AI investment taking place in the nation. Jupiter will have four hyperscale buildings designed for high-density computing, capable of housing thousands of servers for big tech clients.
The BorderPlex Digital leadership team includes former NM Economic Development Secretary Alicia Keyes, working in government affairs, and George P. Bush, a nephew of former President George W. Bush, consulting on strategy. MLG has given the project her full support as has Dona Ana state Rep. Nathan Small, chair of the House Appropriations Committee. The company's NM lobbyist is Vanessa Alarid. Las Cruces area Dem state Reps. Angelica Rubio and Micaela Lara Cadena have opposed Jupiter along with state Sen. Bill Soules. This is the Home of New Mexico Politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. Thursday, September 18, 2025Below The Radar Election In ABQ Metro Is Underway; All Candidates In It Are Unopposed, Plus: More Gaming Of GOP Guv Race There is an election underway in the ABQ metro that hardly anyone is aware of. Four positions for the board of directors of the Midddle Rio Grande Conservancy District (MGRCD) district are being decided. The reason the election is receiving very little notice? There is only one candidate running for each slot so the election is basically over before it begins. Three of the four running are incumbent members on the seven member board. Only property owners within the district's boundaries--which includes parts of Bernalillo, Sandoval, Valencia and Socorro counties, are eligible to vote. Election info is here. Early voting started Sept. 15 and Election Day is October 7. That's rare. Nearly all state municipalities follow a November schedule under the Local Election Act. Exceptions are mostly limited to special districts like the MRGCD. Former state Senator Daniel Ivey Soto tried unsuccessfully to get the MGRCD elections changed to November to increase participation. The MGRCD, established in 1925, manages irrigation, flood control, and water conservation along the Rio Grande from Cochiti Pueblo to Elephant Butte Reservoir. With climate change the board has been higher profile, wrestling with such issues as severe water shortages, river flow and drought. High assessment fees on irrigated lands to fund MGRCD have emerged as a flash point. Small farmers have been overwhelmed and that has led to land sales. The four unopposed candidates are: Position No. 3 – Bernalillo County– Karen Dunning; Position No. 4 – Bernalillo County– Colin T. Baugh; Position No. 6 – Socorro County– J. Chris Lopez; Position No. 7 – Sandoval County– Michael T. Sandoval. More on the election here. NAKAMURA ANALYSIS  I don't see Nakamura running. The GOP/MAGA primary voters aren't going to take the trade off of accepting her liberal social positions even if they think her odds are good for taking the Guv's Mansion. Even if it's a one-on-one match between Nakamura and Gregg Hull, I disagree with the Alligators who say she could beat him in that scenario. However, she might be able to win in a crowded field. Think of Gary Johnson in the 1994 GOP primary. A black and white/conservative versus a moderate liberal match-up--which is what a Hull-Nakamrua race would be--doesn't work for her but a multi-candidate race could. Rio Rancho Mayor Hull is the only GOP candidate currently in the '26 gubernatorial race. THE BOTTOM LINES Conservative reader Jim McClure couldn't resist making a crack about MLG's arm being in a sling after a recent surgery: This is the Home of New Mexico Politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. |
 
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