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Thursday, October 30, 2025

Final Blows Exchanged In Passionate Battle Over Education And ABQ School Board; Gonzales-Betzen Contest Key To Control Of Board, Plus: Oops! City Clerk Mea Culpa For Leaving Arts Center Measure Off Ballot

The final blows are being struck struck in the ABQ election race that may be generating more passion than any other including the six way battle for mayor

Pictured at the left is one of the lasts blasts against retired APS teacher Rebecca Betzen, fired off by the NewMexicoKidsCan PAC who are supporting  ABQ Public School Board President Danielle Gonzales for a second term.

As seen in the other flyer, Betzen is delivering mail hits of her own.  

The District 3 election is the most crucial of the four ABQ school board contests on the Tuesday ballot.

If Gonzales, 46, a former teacher now involved in nonprofit education policy, wins it means a pro business faction will likely retain control of the seven member board.

If Betzen prevails it could mean the return to power of the teacher faction.

The district's main areas inlude the ABQ North Valley, Los Ranchos, Corrales and NW ABQ near Balloon Fiesta Park. Los Ranchos.

NATIONALIZED RACE 

The race has become nationalized with the contribution of $300,000 from two billionaires coming into the campaign coffers of the pro business candidates via the NMKIDSCAN PAC.

The billionaires are ardent advocates for school vouchers--the use of taxpayer dollars to pay tuition for students at private schools that they and their parents choose. 

None of the pro-business candidates are in support of vouchers and that has muddied the waters for Gonzales as she fights to keep her seat. 

While Gonzales is accuse of being in bed with the billionaires, Betzen is on the defense over the big dollars she is collecting from teacher unions.

While Gonzales at mid-October reported receiving $15,000 from the billionaire funded PAC, Betzen chalked up donations of at least $15,000 from the ABQ teachers Federation including a $10,000 in-kind donation for mailers. 

BEYOND THE MONEY 

So both sides can be said to be compromised by special interests. But voters are known to put aside the money maze when assessing candidates. A writer on social media is an example: 

Albuquerque schools and NM are right on the edge of a big leap forward in improving overall test scores. Teacher union candidates somehow oppose all of the reforms Gonzales and (board member) Courtney Jackson have brought in. Scores are up! Graduation rates are up! And yet ATF wants to replace the Board members and the philosophy they have brought in! I don’t care if a donor from out of state gives to a candidate; I want my kids school to be great and get them ready for college. 

When not attacking the big money politics in the race, Betzen has been going local with this:

The APS Board gave themselves failing grades for the past two years on a test they chose themselves. As a teacher for 27 years, I know that D and F scores mean you are failing." 

That refers to the board's own strategic plan metrics, where APS scored low in areas like student achievement and equity.

RACE DATA 

Gonzales was elected in 2021 in a close race, getting 42 percent to 38 percent for the second place finisher in the four way race.followed by two other candidates. The closeness of that race made it the prime target for the teacher groups to try to flip the board back in their favor. 

In the overall money race as seen in the Oct. 14 state reports, Gonzales had raised $73,000 and spent $36,000, leaving $33,000 for the final stretch. Betzen, 55, had raised $46,000 and had $28,000 for the final stretch. 

The passion play comes to an end Tuesday night and we'll be there to report the outcome starting at 6:30 p/m. on KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.org.


OOPS!

Peter St. Cyr
Downtown ABQ News (DAN)
 broke the news that the ABQ City Clerk has made a major league error that is impacting the city election: 

The Office of the City Clerk said that it had inadvertently left a measure meant to clear the way for a Downtown performing arts center off of election ballots, throwing a wrench into the broader effort and setting off a scramble to figure out when and how voters might ultimately decide the matter. 

The clerk's office said that it took responsibility for the mistake, which it chalked up to a clerical error. "We're reviewing our procedures to prevent future errors and exploring all options to ensure voters can weigh in on this matter as soon as possible," the statement said. 

City Councilor Joaquín Baca, who sponsored the legislation to put the question on the ballot, said he was "extremely disappointed" to learn of the mistake, which he discovered late last week. "I hadn't voted yet and nobody else noticed," he said. "I spent a few days calming down for sure." When and how the mistake might be rectified is an ongoing topic of conversation.. 

More on the error here

SIX FOR SIX 

KOB-TV interviewed the six mayoral candidates for six minutes each. The sitdowns cover the major issues in compact form.

REVIEW THEM

Clerk Kavanaugh
Don't forget the bonds on the ballot. From downtown:

Bernalillo County Clerk Michelle Kavanaugh and City Clerk Ethan Watson have partnered to help voters understand the general obligation (G.O.) bond questions on the 2025 ballot. The initiative, called “Know the Bonds,” features short videos highlighting key bond questions and the projects they fund. The videos focus on topics including public safety, parks and recreation, museums and cultural facilities, and community resources such as housing, health, and animal welfare. 

Voters can also review the 2025 General Obligation Bond Program  which provides a full overview of all G.O. bond purposes and projects on the ballot.“It’s essential that voters understand what’s on their ballots and how these measures impact daily life,” says Clerk Kavanaugh. “These bonds represent local investments that strengthen our neighborhoods and help our community thrive.” 

ABQ voters will decide $180 million in bond issues which are detailed at that Bond Progam link. 

We don't endorse candidates but we do urge your support for the bond issues which also address street repairs, flood control and other infrastructure needs. 

 DROP IT

Clerk Clark
The Santa Fe County Clerk has some election advice: 

Santa Fe County Clerk Katharine Clark reminds voters that absentee ballots must be received by the Clerk’s Office no later than 7 PM on Election Night, Tuesday, November 4, to be counted. “At this stage, voters should not rely on the mail to deliver their ballots on time,” said Clerk Clark. “Instead, drop your completed absentee ballot in one of our secure drop boxes or bring it to any open polling location. Dropping it off ensures your vote arrives safely and on time.”  

BernCo Clerk Kavanaugh also recommends that absentee ballots now be dropped off at early voting locations and not mailed with E Day right around the corner. 

DISTRICT ONE UPDATE

In the first draft of the Wednesday monster blog on the ABQ city council races we omitted the candidacy of Republican Joshua Taylor Neal in District One on the city's westside and called it a three way race. There are four candidates running and if none gets 50 percent of the vote a runoff election will be held. Also, we added to our Wednesday report that Daniel Leiva in District 1 qualified for public financing for his campaign. 

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Wednesday, October 29, 2025

1,3,5,7,9: Five ABQ City Council Races Get The Going Over With Monahan And Abeyta Sorting Through The Issues, The Politics And Naming The Favorites, Plus: More From Sanderoff On Early Vote And Nair Says No To Auditor Run; Monster Blogging Is In Effect For Campaign '25

Today we're looking at the five ABQ City Council seats up for election next Tuesday. Let's begin with the most heated one. 

That would be the race in District 5 on the city's northwest side where Republican Dan Lewis, current Council President and executive director of the Asphalt Pavement Association of NM, is seeking another term. He is getting a stiff challenge from Democrat Athenea Allen, a program security representative for General Dynamics Information Technology at KAFB

As seen in the piece posted, Allen is the wife of Bernalillo County Sheriff John Allen which has critics asking is this power couple making too much of a power play?

Allen tells us "there is no conflict of interest with her husband, that they represent a "collaboration" and not a conflict: 

The county and city are two separate governments with two separate budgets There is no conflict. 

During a debate Allen addressed concerns about her independence. Asked whether she would defer to Sheriff Allen's views on public safety or immigration, she said: 

I am a strong, independent woman who makes up her own mind on issues.

Meanwhile, Lewis is hitting Allen hard in the mail, coming with a piece that attacks her for being "soft on crime" and in support of "catch and release." 

That prompted Sheriff Allen to take the unusual step of going on the socials to defend his wife and himself even though she says he was not mentioned in the hit piece. He said:

Lewis hit piece 
There's no way that we are soft on crime and that we support catch and release. I have fought this ad nauseam--to get rid of the system where we see criminals released and never held accountable. My wife holds to the same value. If you commit a crime in the city or county you will be held accountable. The rhetoric from my wife's opponent is just someone who is intimidated by somebody that can do a better job and is for the change we have not seen in District 5 for 12 years. In fact, the crime has become worse and I have had to have my deputies come into the district to get rid of the crime. . . I need someone on the council that can not only support the strong polices we have but be a representative for you to cure the crime problem.

It will be interesting to see how voters see Allen's involvement in the race--as necessary to clarify the record or an overstep into city politics? 

Dem consultant Sisto Abeyta continues to rank the district "lean Republican" but is anticipating a competitive race.  

DISTRICT ONE 

Ahren Griego
We have heard little about the four way race for the westside council seat being vacated by conservative Dem Councilor Louie Sanchez. That's because the race has appeared to quickly lean toward Dem Ahern Griego, a retired city firefighter who Abeyta says is "deep in the grassroots" of the district. 

Griego also has the strong support of city unions, important in a district heavy on blue collar workers. 

Daniel Leiva, a relative of BernCo Assessor Damian Lara, also qualified for public financing. but at 29 and only freed to campaign full-time after getting his law degree from UNM in May, Abeyta says he has been at a disadvantage. 

A third candidate, progressive Dem Stephanie Telles, saw most her early campaign consumed by efforts to get on the ballot. She prevailed but it slowed her fund-raising to only $10,000 and that hurt. 

If Griego, who qualified for public financing, wins his race along with Mayor Keller, the victory would take some sting out of Keller's council opposition. Sanchez has repeatedly sided with the Republicans

Also running is Republican Joshua Taylor Neal, a civil engineer running on a anti-crime platform who reports raising $32,000 in the heavy Dem district. 

Greigo would be an independent councilor but not a knee-jerk opponent of Keller. The Griego campaign is expects a runoff with no candidate getting 50 percent in the first round. 

DISTRICT THREE

Councilor Peña

Is Democrat Klarissa Peña the forever councilor for this ABQ Valley district

It seems so as she seeks a fourth four year term on the nine member council and without substantive opposition. Back to Abeyta:  

The district has taken to her, especially the many old line families. Criticism of her handing of the Route 66 visitation center build out have not taken hold but her record improving neighborhoods and infrastructure is appreciated. 

Peña, the current council vice-president and a native of her district, has two opponents.  

Christopher Sedillo says: 

I know how to bring people together and how to challenge entrenched interests when they fail us. That’s the kind of leadership district three deserves.

Teresa Garcia is a first-generation U.S. citizen and bilingual advocate with over 14 years living in the district. Her campaign emphasizes community voices, public safety, health equity, and progressive policies like immigrant rights and union support.

Abeyta says neither of Peña's opponents have raised sufficient funds to mount a serious challenge and he expects the councilor, who qualified for public financing, to capture the 50 percent of the vote needed to avoid a runoff. 

DISTRICT SEVEN 

Councilor Fiebelkorn
Some odd happenings in District 7, the Mid-Heights district that includes Uptown and where progressive Dem Councilor Tammy Fiebelkorn is seeking a second term unopposed.

Well, unopposed on the ballot but a write in candidate, Jaemes Shanley, has qualified and has been given a $2,000 donation from the Apartment Association of NM and another $2,000 from the real estate GAAR PAC. Fiebelkorn has has qualified for over $57,000 in public financing. 

No write-in candidate has ever won a city election and Fiebelkorn remains popular in the area, attracting a following of dedicated progressives as did her predecessor Diane Gibson. It's a major reason why she is unopposed.

That the real estate community did not come up with a candidate for the ballot speaks to the symbolic nature of their opposition but also their deep disdain for Fiebelkorn. Her campaign platform includes "building more affordable housing especially for renters," more tenant protections and "fighting corporate price-gouging from the grocery store to the gas pump."

Write-in hopeful Shanley, a retired jewelry maker, criticizes the councilor for her support of the expensive Gateway Center for the homeless and says he wants more "transitional housing." He leaves the rest of the sticky problem to a committee to resolve: 

It is past time for our elected City leaders to convene a “summit of everyone” in the community whose efforts connect or can connect in some way to this crisis and to work through their ideas and perspectives until an executable plan is defined.  And then, to fix this mess.

Fiebelkorn is all-in on progressive solutions for the homeless. She supports safe spaces, rent control. and tenant protections. She has passed several bills involving those issues. 

The apartment association has obvious reasons to oppose her but consultant Abeyta says Fiebelkorn is not going to be evicted.  

DISTRICT 9

Councilor Grout
A
potentially close contest for GOP Councilor Renee Grout went away with the withdrawal of candidate Melani Buchanan Farmer. Now up to bat is Dem Colton Newman but he's under financed so this race in the far NE Heights that includes Four Hills has been calm.

Homelessness has been a major issue in the district since it includes a stretch of East Central where many homeless congregate. 

Grout, who owns and operates an auto repair shop, has advocated for reallocating funds to shelters for vulnerable groups (youth, women/children), bans on enabling "safe outdoor spaces," and transparency via spending audits to ensure effective outcomes over visible encampments.  

Newman, a business manager at the UNM Center on Alcohol, Substance Use, and Addictions, supports community-led solutions and program transparency. He frames it within broader affordability and youth investment in youth to address root causes like rising costs.

The district has been growing more Democratic. Grout took the seat in 2021 in a runoff election where she scored 52 percent but Abeyta says the Dems will have to wait another four years to make the play again. 

EARLY VOTE 

As usual there is some confusion and some panic among some of the campaigns over the early vote and what it means. We reported on a segment of the ABQ Journal's coverage Tuesday featuring longtime pollster Brian Sanderoff. He comes with a further explanation today that points out the usual depressed turnout among independent (decline to state) voters for a city election:

Just to clarify: Although overall turnout in the municipal election is sluggish, both Democrats and Republicans are turning out at a rate higher than their actual proportion of the registered voter population--- and independents are turning out at a much lower rate than their true proportions. 

Through Monday, whereas Democrats comprise 45.3% of the county registered voter population, they represent 55.5% of the voting population. Republicans comprise 27.8% of the county registered voter population, and 30.5% of the voting population. Independent voters (D-T-S) comprise 24.9% of the county registered voter population and only 13.3% of the voting population. To look at it another way, through Monday, 10.9% of Democrats have voted and 9.7% of Republicans have voted, while only 4.7% of independents have voted.  

Okay, we are at the service of the state's math whizzes as well as the political junkies. 

ELECTION NIGHT COVERAGE

Join us Tuesday November 4 at 6:30 PM KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.org for exclusive, live continuous coverage of the 2025 election featuring the races for mayor in ABQ and Santa Fe and the city council contests.
 
ABQ state Sen. Antonio "Moe" Maestas and ABQ state Rep. Joy Garratt will join us to provide analysis and insights into the races and issues of the campaign. 
 
Dem political consultant Sisto Abeyta will be back crunching the numbers as will GOP consultant Bob Cornelius. So join us for Election Night on KANW as we bring home Campaign '25 in style. 

NO AUDITOR SARITA

Sec. Nair
We had a spec piece up Tuesday that mentioned state Dept. of Workforce Solutions Secretary Sarita Nair as a possible '26 Dem primary opponent for State Auditor Joseph Maestas. She responds that she will not be running:

Hi Joe, While it's always nice to be thought of, I look forward to finishing out the Governor's term in a job I love and have no intentions to run for anything next year. By the way, readers can hear Auditor Maestas and me discuss that great office in an episode of the Workforce Solutions podcast "Good Job New Mexico," from March of this year.

In an early first draft of that piece we did not have Zack Quintero, who now heads up the National Hispanic Cultural Center, a the Dem primary foe of Joseph Maestas in the 2022 primary. 

As for that Maeastas-Nair mutual admiration society, what's next? Are Sam and Deb going to start a book club together?  

Often imitated but never duplicated. .  

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        
 
E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com)

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Tuesday, October 28, 2025

Expectations Game: Keller Side Ramps Them Down And R's Ramp Them Up; Predictions That Incumbent Gets 50 Percent Knocked By Both Sides As White Attacks Sanchez For Going After GOP Votes. Plus: Turnout So Far Is "Sluggish"

A wide range of reactions to the pundit predictions made here Monday for the ABQ mayoral race

Democrats and Republicans both downplayed the predictions of those who think Mayor Keller could actually win 50 percent of the vote November 4 and avoid a December 9 runoff election,

Republicans argued that despite Dem Councilor Louie Sanchez making appeals to the GOP, it is former Republican Sheriff Darren White who is consolidating his party's vote. White, however, is taking the attacks from Sanchez seriously as seen in the mailer posted here that claims Sanchez is "a Democrat trying to steal Republican votes." 

And:

Democrat Louie Sanchez cast the deciding vote to Keep Tim Keller's Sanctuary City policy in place.

We reported Monday on Sanchez and his chances of finishing ahead of White.  

A source close to the Keller campaign batted around a wide variety of possible Election Night outcomes in an afternoon phone conversation. All of them started with Keller finishing under 50 percent. The convo concluded with the source telling NM Politics with JM:

We'd be happy finishing in the mid to high thirties.

That's what you call resetting expectations. 

For Keller 50 percent would be a dream come true, considering he is seeking an unprecedented third four year term, running in a six person field and was polling at just 29 percent of the vote in the late September ABQ Journal poll and has an approval rating in that poll of 42 percent. 

While potentially unrealistic, the no runoff predictions could make it harder to get Dems out for Keller which concerns his camp.

GOP consultant Bob Cornelius got high marks for coming down in the middle and framing the race as a question of whether Keller will be able to get 40 percent of the vote not 50 and whether White will be competitive with Keller by coming close to taking the top spot. We asked him for a follow-up:

Keller is in a very defensive position, getting attacked from all sides and carrying the baggage of two terms. And White has not been attacked over his baggage. That won't come until the runoff 

Anti-Sanchez mailer

Meanwhile, the consensus view remains that Keller and White will face each other in a runoff. Other than that, your guess may be as good as those who work hard to try to be in the know.  

PREDICTION SUMMARY 

NO RUNOFF--Dem consultant David Alcon, Journal opinion writer Jeff Tucker; APD watchdog and reporter Dan Klein.

SHOT AT NO RUNOFF--Greg Payne (Keller first, White second).

RUNOFF--Journal pollster Brian Sanderoff, Mayor Tim Keller, GOP consultant Cornelius, '21 mayor candidate Eddy Aragon; 2024 GOP Guv candidate Mark Ronchetti--"a tight race" with White forcing a runoff.

We'll oversee the end of the mayoral drama next Tuesday, November 4 when we take to the airwaves of KANW 89.1 FM radio and kanw.org to bring you live continuous results and analysis beginning at 6:30 p.m.  

EARLY TURNOUT

The first takeaway from the early voter turnout in the city election is that it is down overall but trending Democratic as expected:

Sanderoff
. . . More than 55% of the Bernalillo County voters who had cast a ballot entering Monday were registered Democrats, even though Democrats make up only about 45% of all registered voters in the county. . .Only about 9.3% of Albuquerque's more than 362,000 registered voters had cast ballots.. .The current trend suggests final turnout levels might fall short of the 32% mark from Albuquerque’s last mayoral election in 2021. . .With Democrats so far voting at a higher clip than Republicans in a city in which Democrats far outnumber GOP voters, the trend could make it difficult for a Republican candidate to post an upset victory even if this year's Election Day turnout ends up narrowing — or eliminating — the current gap. "We're not seeing the Democratic vote depress" despite the large number of undecided voters, Journal pollster Brian Sanderoff said.

Turnout for the '21 ABQ mayoral race was about 120,000. In the first round of the 2017 mayoral election there were 96,655 ballots cast. It appears we are heading toward something along the lines of the 2017 number. 

Analyst Greg Payne said: 

Lower turnout with higher participation from Democrats definitely helps Keller. 

In the Journal September poll Keller was polling 43 percent of the Democrats with 35 percent of them undecided. Alex Uballez was polling 9 percent of the Dems.

 A LONG WAIT

Our reference Monday to the NMGOP being in exile and holding no offices in any of the state's centers of power brought this from longtime reader Steve Crespin: 

Joe, if you go back to my email to your blog of June 3, 2021 titled “Retribution For R’s, I said it would take a minimum of two election cycles (eight years) for the Republican Party to “begin” to recover from the disaster Susana Martinez and her inner circle left. It’s very possible it could take until the 2030 cycle to recover. She drove a huge wedge in the Republican Party. A good example is in your October 15 blog October 15th blog where you report former NMGOP Chairman Harvey Yates, Jr contributed $6,000.00 to Louie Sanchez for Mayor of ABQ. It’s going to take some strong respected candidates to start the healing. 

On the other hand, the party may not have "healed" from the Martinez years but she and they may have been forgotten. 

In our Monday blog we noted that a number of foes of Susana from days gone by, like Tom Tinnin and Harvey Yates, are giving money to Dem Louie Sanchez but so are Martinez supporters Robert Aragon and John Rockwell,who we should not have lumped in with them. Republicans are looking for a way to win and the old battle lines are finally blurring but as Crespin wrote there is still a long road ahead. 

WAYS OF WEH

Maestas Weh

While Sanchez is getting the support of two former NMGOP Chairmen, White is also getting two--former GOP Chair Deborah Maestas the daughter of former NMGOP Chair Allen Weh who is also backing White.

Allen Weh has not donated to White directly but has done so through his CSI Aviation company. Weh's wife, Rebecca, made a direct contribution:

Former GOP Chair Deborah Maestas Weh: $5,000; Rebecca Weh: $5,000; CSI: $5,000. 

MAESTAS CHALLENGER?

Chatter is developing over a possible challenge to State Auditor Joseph Maestas for the Democratic nomination for the office in next June's primary. Sarita Nair, secretary of the state Department of Workforce Solutions is the name circulating. She is a progressive Dem while Maestaes is a moderate. 

Nair served as ABQ's Chief Administrative Officer under Mayor Keller Keller before being named to MLG's cabinet. Nair has made no mention yet of her intentions. 

Maestas has experience fending off a primary challenger. He beat back progressive Zach Quintero in the 2022 Dem primary and went on to win the November election.

Often imitated but never duplicated. . .

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Monday, October 27, 2025

Political Pros Update Their ABQ Mayoral Election Predictions And There's Some Changes, Plus: GOP Support Raises Some Hope For Dem Louie Sanchez For Second Place, Plus: Uballez Tries To Stay In It; Says He's "Adult In The Room"

There has been no public or private polling circulating in the ABQ mayor's race since late September but that isn't stopping the political pros from weighing campaign events since then and updating their predictions. It's old school style with a week to go before the election and there are some surprises as we check in with them.

Greg Payne, former ABQ city councilor, Santa Fe attorney and longtime analyst for this corner, previously said Mayor Tim Keller would fall short of 50 percent of the vote and face a runoff election with former BernCo Sheriff Darren White. But in his reassessment Payne tells us:  

I didn't believe this before, but I think Keller has a shot at avoiding the runoff. It's about the turnout breaking his way. Keller hasn't made any serious missteps. 

Payne, a former director of the ABQ Transit Department under Mayor Marty Chavez, says Keller is overcoming serious vulnerabilities:  

Crime, drugs, homelessness and a low wage economy remain. Voters just don't see an alternative in the field of candidates trying to replace Keller and his Administration. So, with a collective shrug by a majority of 'Burque voters, Keller will likely win a third term.

Dem consultant David Alcon is sticking by his initial prediction that Keller hits the 50 mark, despite there being six candidates in the field and Keller sporting an approval rating in the Sept. ABQ Journal poll of 42 percent.

I have seen nothing during the campaign that threatens him from having a strong finish and I think the campaign has raised his approval rating. That should broaden his reach and get him a majority Election Night. It will be close.

Veteran pollster Brian Sanderoff said upon the release of his Journal poll that he believes there will be a runoff between the top two candidates but did not predict an order of finish. The paper is not doing a follow-up poll. 

APD watchdog and retired police Sergeant Dan Klein has for years written for news outlets about the extensive troubles the department has had under several mayors. But putting on his political analyst hat, he writes:

No run off. Keller takes it in the first round. I think it will be a low turnout and that will aid Keller getting 50%.  We are a majority Democratic city with a progressive lean. The only people I know who are fired up about this election are Dems who what to make a statement against Trump domestic policies. That plus no no opposition candidate has lit a fire. 

Jeff Tucker 
Conservative ABQ Journal political writer Jeff Tucker calls it for Keller in the first round:

It’s still Keller’s race to lose, and I’m not expecting a runoff. I’m instead expecting four more years of city leaders blaming someone else, fentanyl pouring into the city and for the malaise to deepen. I would be ecstatic if voters proved me wrong. But if not, let’s start the discussion about term limits on Nov. 5.

Longtime Republican consultant Bob Cornelius is more optimistic for Keller's opposition, saying the issue is not keeping Keller below 50 percent---but 40: 

Keller finishes in first for sure and the more I watch it seems like the others are fading, not gaining. Darren is the only likely run-off competitor. The question is can they keep Keller under 40%? As of now I have it Keller--43 percent, White, 26, Sanchez, 13, Uballez, 10, Armijo, 5, Varela, 2 and Chavez 1 percent. 

Daniel Chavez has withdrawn from the race but his name will appear on the ballot because his withdrawal came past the removal deadline. 

KELLER ANALYSIS

Finally, Mayor Keller said in an interview week that he believed there would be a run off election December 9. He continues to make clear his favorite opponent would be White. His campaign tells supporters:

As expected, the Mayor is taking hits from every direction--five opponents and their PACs combined. But through it all, Tim Keller has. . . shown up, stood firm for what’s right, and made his case for another four years. . . Both public polls and political observers point to what we’ve known all along--this race will come down to Mayor Tim Keller and Republican Darren White.

The suspense will end next Tuesday, November 4. We'll have all the election results and expert analysis on KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.org beginning at 6:30 p.m. 

A FIGHT FOR SECOND 

No one expected the collapse of the Republican Party to the extent that the state is witnessing today--a complete exclusion from the centers of power and an exile on course to continue for another election cycle--including the ABQ mayoral race

As we previously reported, Republicans are now so lost in the wilderness that many of them are backing conservative Democratic City Councilor Louie Sanchez over Darren White

Sanchez is embracing them as he attacks White on the socials for twice receiving votes of no confidence from those he was leading--once by state police officers when he was secretary of the NM Department of Public Safety in 1999 and another by ABQ police officers when he was the ABQ Public Safety Director in 2011. 

It was the combative administration of GOP Gov. Susana Martinez (2011-'19) that White was so closely associated with that divided the GOP so deeply that the rift persists to this day and is at the root of the GOP's inability to unify and get on with winning elections. 

Councilor Sanchez stumbled over his answer about Sanctuary Cities during the KOAT debate and to White's benefit. But in the final stretch the desperation is growing among conservatives and the disdain for White intensifying among his enemies. 

That includes these R's who are supporting Dem Sanchez: Former ABQ mayoral candidate Michelle Garcia Holmes, business leader Carla Sonntag, former NM GOP Chairmen Ryan Cangliosi and Harvey Yates, Jr.; attorney and former BernCo GOP Chairman Robert Aragon and his wife Peggy Aragon, a former GOP member of the ABQ School Board; prominent NM businessman Tom Tinnin, a former state fair commissioner and Board of Finance member who clashed with Gov. Martinez and former GOP BernCo Chairman John Rockwell.

It is now conceivable that Sanchez could draw a significant share of the Republican vote and challenge the former sheriff for second place and a spot in a run-off election with Keller, but none of our experts are changing their predictions that White will be #2. 

Another possible drag on White, albeit a minor one, is the candidacy of Republican Eddie Varela. The retired fire chief is throwing out the red meat and attracting votes that might normally go to White. 

This is about as good as it gets for Dem Mayor Keller, who is seeking a third term but shadowed by that low 42 percent approval rating.

True to form Keller is running a professional campaign. His five opponents lack the funds to effectively compete and in the case of White and Sanchez have turned on each other. 

The Mayor still has a mountain to climb to get to 50 percent in the Nov. 4 vote and avoid a run-off with the second place finisher. But if Keller wins the first round by double-digits, the run-off will likely be a formality and an election that draws less interest. 

SANCHEZ AND A RUN-OFF  


If Sanchez were to upset White and take second would Republicans be better off in a run-off?

Unlike White, Sanchez could count on support from GOP money centers including former NMGOP Chairman and oil tycoon Harvey Yates, Jr. White could not.

Sanchez has a base of conservative/moderate Hispanic working class voters in his Westside District One council seat. If he could appeal to Hispanics citywide and combine that with solid GOP support, he could be a threat. We will get a test of that theory in the first round Election Night.

Another talking point Sanchez supporters tout is his long service as an APD officer, giving him crime-fighting credentials which along with homelessness is the top campaign issue.

On the down side Sanchez paints with a broad brush. He has never been one for the details of city policy or government management. His polling at 6 percent in the Journal survey is a testament to his inability to break through with the public even though he had four years to do so. 

His rhetorical bravado does not help him convince voters that he has the depth to command a city work force of some 6,000 and Republican tag he is getting comes with an enormous political price in a run-off--the unpopularity of that party in the Dem dominated city and Donald Trump.

Still, while the consultants and other experts appear unanimous that White can't defeat Keller, there is more wiggle room for Sanchez. In Campaign '25 it's the fight for second that is now providing the drama. 

UBALLEZ TAKE 

Uballez 
While progressive Democrat and former US Attorney Alex Uballez has seemed to slip from the top tier of candidates, his campaign sees it differently. They don't provide any polling but say they sense a healthy portion of the 37 percent of voters identified as undecided in the ABQ Journal's late September poll are coming to their side:

We have seen a seismic shift since the last debate where undecideds are disappearing and support for Alex is skyrocketing. Whether it's because Keller continues to be caught in his own fact-checks, voters see Darren White is rich in complaints and bankrupt in solutions beyond his out-dated fake tough on crime playbook, or because the prospect of a run-off has voters realizing they're choosing who proceeds to the next round, not who will be the next mayor, the Uballez chorus keeps getting louder. 

Albuquerque wants a candidate who doesn't just wave off and dismiss nearly a dozen retaliation cases and exposure to cancer-causing asbestos as standard affairs for cities. And they don't want to see the city budget sent down the drain on overtime, lawsuits, and the ineffective policies guaranteed under a Darren White administration. Uballez continues to be the adult in the room and the candidate with solutions. That's why everything is moving in his favor.  

Okay, if you say so.  

Often imitated but never duplicated. . . 

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Thursday, October 23, 2025

Keller Clashes With "Day One Darren" At Final Media Meeting Of ABQ Mayoral Campaign, Plus: In Santa Fe Senators Endorse Mayor Front-Runner Garcia; Race Shutting Down? And: Monahan-Aragon Deep Dive On Mayor Election And State Of City

Mayor Tim Keller and former BernCo Sheriff Darren White, the probable top two finishers in the ABQ mayoral race, clashed at the final media meeting of the candidates with White embracing a sarcastic nickname Keller has adopted for him as the rest of the field worked for a breakthrough that would propel them to an anticipated run-off election.

Keller's nickname for White is Day One Darren, based on his repeated declarations about what he would do as mayor on his first day in office, particularly his assertion that homeless encampments would be shut down on "Day One."

Keller scoffs at any mayor's ability to do that thus the White nickname. He was given more ammo for that assertion with a NM Supreme Court ruling that thwarts the Keller administration's efforts to get tougher on homeless camps. 

But White, at a 90 minute media session featuring all six mayor hopefuls, set up a clash between the two that could be the first of many if Keller and White meet for that expected December 9 run-off. Here's the closing statements made by each.

WHITE: Before you go vote ask yourself this question, what is Tim Keller going to do in 12 years that he hasn't done in eight. If I'm elected I will only serve four years. I'm not trying to pad my political career or punch my ticket to higher office. Mayor Keller is running to save his political career. I'm running to save our city. Mayor, today I noticed you started referring to me as Day One Darren and that is a moniker I proudly accept. Because on day one I am going to roll up my sleeves, get to work and clean up the mess, a mess you created, Mayor, in 2,882 days. It is time for a change. 

Keller, who is seeking an unprecedented third consecutive four year term:

For Day One Darren: The only thing you are going to do on day one is break a promise. You are just saying things that are illegal or ineffective or not doable, especially on day one. You say you are running to 'save the city.' I don't have some kind of savior complex. I'm just doing the tough work of problem solving to help our city for generations. And you're trying to resurrect your career. I know mine is already done. No Mayor has ever gone on to something else besides being Mayor because this is a work that you do because you love your hometown and you know it's the right thing to do. 

These are tough times. It's easy to just talk about the problem or say things there is no way you can deliver on. What's hard is to actually do the real work, to say how you're going to fix it. That is what I have done today. I see the challenges but I also see the things we are doing right that are making a difference. That's why we have to keep going. 

SAYING THEIR PIECE 

Varela
The six candidates, including Mayling Armijo and Eddy Varela, who were excluded from the KOAT debate last week, said they opposed moving the State Fair from ABQ. MLG's administration is studying the possibility of moving the Fair outside the city. 

Keller said there could be improvements at the corners of the Fairgrounds such as housing initiatives that could be financed with new funding authority the state is providing for the Fairgrounds area. 

Varela wants a teen curfew in the city to combat juvenile crime. That was attempted by then Mayor Chavez but ran afoul of the law. 

Varela, a Republican, also said he is working on a plan to have homeless people go back to their home states if they rejected treatment for fentanyl addiction and found to be breaking laws. He claimed that based on his personal interviews 50 percent of the homeless are from outside ABQ.

Former US Attorney Alex Uballez said the city should be banning the wearing of masks by ICE agents and should designate response teams to provide legal defenses "to families torn apart by ICE." 

Mayling Armijo said if "we don't look at attracting big businesses" and providing them the same incentives (as small business ) "state's like Texas, Colorado and Arizona will continue to take our young."  

Councilor Louis Sanchez, a former APD officer who was challenged at the KOAT debate over his stance on ABQ being a Sanctuary City said: "I am not for sanctuary cities. I have said that over and over and over. It's important we take the criminals off the streets. I will always cooperate with all law enforcement agencies."  

DEEP DIVE

We take a 45 minute deep dive into the race for ABQ mayor and the state of the city with KIVA-AM 1600 radio host Eddy Aragon. The stream is here. An excerpt:  

Aragon, who ran for mayor in 2021 and lost to Keller, predicts the following outcome: Keller at 42%, Darren White at 30%, Uballez at 14%, Sanchez at 10%, Armijo at 3%, and Varela at 1%. 

Monahan finds the 42% figure for Keller plausible, as it aligns with Keller's late September approval rating from an ABQ Journal poll.  

RACE SHUTDOWN?

In Santa Fe, the mayoral race appears to be in danger of shutting down following the endorsement of City Councilor Michael Garcia by US Sens. Martin Heinrich and Ben Ray Lujan

That came on the heels of an endorsement of Garcia by the New Mexican and recent insider polling showing him with a healthy lead. 

The senators said: 

He represents the next generation of leadership — someone who doesn’t just talk about progress but gets it done.

The endorsement of front-runner Garcia in the eight candidate race could be seen as unwanted interference from the DC reps but Santa Fe is a city of national repute and seems at an inflection point in its battle against homelessness and crime. That the two senators wanted to weigh in is understandable in that context.

Also, they know Garcia from working with him as a councilor and his day job with AmeriCorp VISTA, a federally-funded agency "implemented within local community nonprofits to address critical community needs in education, public safety, health and the environment."

Gov. Lujan Grisham last month endorsed Joanne Vigil Coppler, a longtime friend.

On the homelessness front, Santa Fe is taking stronger and prudent measures but that stance has provoked  a battle with progressives. But if the city does not lay down a marker now--and waits too long as ABQ did--the very nature of the city could be altered. 

Santa Fe has ranked choice voting. Garcia is expected to come in first but getting 50 percent in the first round is a challenge with so many candidates. Still, with backing of the business community and the US senators pushing their crews out for him, a victory scenario for the opposition is getting more difficult to envision. (There is no run-off election later. Ranked choice voting produces a winner Election Night.)

CAMPAIGN '26 

The candidacy announcements for the statewide executive offices up for election next year continue to roll out. Here's one from the State Auditor: 

State Auditor Joseph Maestas has formally announced his campaign for re-election, pledging to continue his fight for accountability, transparency, and innovation in New Mexico’s public entities and officials. 

“In my time as State Auditor, we’ve uncovered millions in waste, strengthened fiscal oversight, and made government more transparent than ever,” said Maestas. “But the work is far from over. New Mexico needs urgent, impactful action—and I am more committed than ever to delivering results that matter to every taxpayer. 

Maestas is a Democrat and has no announced opposition in the '26 primary. The annual salary of the Auditor is $144,714. 

MTO GOES OFFICIAL 

Sec. of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver is officially announcing her candidacy for the Dem nomination for lieutenant governor today with this video on social media. She says New Mexico "needs a fighter who will stand up to" Donald Trump. Sen. Harold Pope of ABQ is the other major candidate in the lt. gov. race.

SCHOOL VOUCHER POSITIONS 

It's been a while since we had to self-administer the traditional punishment of ten lashes with a wet noodle for a blog error. But Wednesday morning we botched the positions of APS School Board candidates Danielle Gonzales, Josh Martinez and David Ams on the subject of school vouchers so the lashing will soon ensue. They all are against school vouchers.

In our first draft we used erroneous data and said Gonzales, the APS School Board President, had been silent on the vouchers--where parents use taxpayer money to pick a school of their choice. Gonzales is against vouchers. In discussing our error she said such vouchers are currently unconstitutional and a constitutional amendment approved by voters would be required to allow them. 

Gonzales, Martinez and Ams all answered questionnaires earlier in the campaign in which they stated their opposition to vouchers.  

Reporter Jesse Jones of NM News, who broke the story of a pair of billionaires contributing money to the School Board races and which we linked to, also issued a mea culpa for errors he said he made in his coverage.  

As much as news guys hate to let politicians (and their sometimes overbearing consultants) get on their high horses, there are these rare occasions when you have to grin and bear it.

Apologizes to the candidates. The wet noodle is activated. Ignore any pleas for mercy you may hear shouted.

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