New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan

Sen. Smith
The Legislature had the chance to act like a bunch of first graders back in the classroom for the first day after a long summer vacation, but in the end they took the high road. They had Big Bill over a barrel, but they decided not to push. When they headed for the Interstate last night after adjourning a special session, they had given the Guv a plate full of appetizers, but no main course and certainly no dessert.

Largely symbolic cash rebates will be handed out, flood relief will get to stricken areas, health care will be pumped up for uninsured children and $200 million was approved for ongoing road repair. Bill, a governor with the largest of appetites, decided to pronounce himself satisfied with just the o'douvres. It was, maintained the Fourth Floor leader, "a good, solid, yet modest effort that helps New Mexico families."

And we might want to get used to it. We called this special the "Last Supper Session" because it may be one of the last where reasonably large oil and gas surpluses are divvied up. Future sessions may be haunted by the spending of the past. While it was Bill who conceived the session, it was Senate Finance Committee Chairman John Arthur Smith whose name history may most closely associate with it. He has been an early chicken little, constantly warning that the sky is falling, but the rest of the chickens finally started to see things his way, and they trimmed and pared and trimmed and pared some more. Dr. Atkins would have been proud.

LET'S FIGHT ABOUT IT

That Club for Growth TV ad hitting Dem Senate nominee Tom Udall is stinging. The ad is a bit disjointed covering the "Death Tax," Eminent Domain" and offshore drilling, but it is on a lot--$150,000 for two weeks. The Udall campaign, flush with cash, has decided to respond with this ad. On energy, the ad says Udall wants to "do it all" including more offshore drilling and nuclear power. That may be so, but the reason Pearce's attacks and those of the Club for Growth have some impact is because for the over 10 years Udall has been in the US House he has rarely voiced such support. Will the polls close because of the stepped-up attacks? Very likely. No one is going to hold on to a 20 point lead in an open NM Senate seat race.

NONPROFIT FALL OUT

It's not about ideology, this controversy over political nonprofits disclosing their contributions and expenditures. The Center for Civic Policy, ordered by the state to disclose their money, comes at politics from the left. But another nonprofit we briefly mentioned recently--the American Energy Alliance--comes at things from the right and also is not reporting their money. They have run anti-Tom Udall radio ads in the state and reader Mike Parks comments:

"...The Center for Civic Policy merits...attention..but I wish there would be more attention to organizations "on the other side," like the "American Energy Alliance"...As your blog briefly noted, funding sources of the Alliance are nigh-impossible to come by...Annoyed by some of the AEA's ad content (like the ludicrous claim that there are two trillion barrels of oil available under America), I called the American Petroleum Institute, noted by some bloggers as a major funder of AEA. One of API's media representatives, agreeing in effect that the claim is ridiculous, said they are not involved with AEA...."

Full and complete disclosure by all sides involved in the political process is essential. It is the only way of ensuring a level playing field--for both left and right. The attorney general and secretary of state have ordered such disclosure by the Center for Civic Policy. They have more to look at.

THE LIT IN QUESTION

Here are two pieces of literature sent out by the political nonprofit associated with the Center for Civic Policy. They claim they are not political because they do not urge a vote for or against the targeted state senators. They say they should not have to disclose their funding for the flyers because they are "educational." Click on them to enlarge and see for yourself. As Attorney General King said: "If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's a duck." We are hearing some very loud quacking.

NO STONE UNTURNED

Obama left no stone unturned during his Monday ABQ visit. Well aware that McCain was slated for Las Cruces today, the soon-to-be Dem prez nominee squeezed in a phone interview with the Las Cruces Sun-News which won him prominent coverage and kept him in the media sweepstakes there as McCain makes his big townhall splash at the NMSU campus today.

CHESHIRE OUT AT McCAIN?

When McCain sets down in Cruces today, he apparently won't have GOP consultant Whitney Cheshire touting his appearance. Two reliable Alligators confirm that Cheshire, named earlier this year as state communications director for NM McCain, is said to be one of the first causalities of Campaign '08, having left the campaign for reasons not released. Cheshire was brought on by Marta Kramer, former executive director of the NM GOP, who is heading up the NM McCain office.

MIDNIGHT TRAIN

Closing in on the Midnight hour now and we're still on the beat with non-stop breaking political news. And it is going to stay that way for the next 75 days. From the AP comes word that NM House minority whip Dan Foley of Roswell will follow through with plans to resign his seat right after the November election. Foley was defeated by Dennis Kintigh in the GOP primary. Now county commissioners in his district could recommend a replacement to the Governor. That person would only serve until the new rep is seated in January. That is expected to be Kintigh in the heavy R district. Alligators on the Foley watch say he is either now living in Rio Rancho, or expected to move there soon.

STILL BREAKING--TEAGUE TV

I have the TV on here headed into the late night and can bring you this exclusive--southern NM congressional Dem contender Harry Teague has just hit with his first spot. He beats Republican Ed Tinsley on the air. It appeared to be a sixty second ad. The big thing about it? Teague talks, and at length. He said nothing on his primary ads , and observers felt it hurt him. In this spot, he sounds confident, but down-home. I'll post it when I get it in here. Teague is an oilman from Hobbs. His money is dangerous to Tinsley who will not be able to let Harry have the tube to himself for long. Meantime, for Team Tinsley it's welcome to Campaign '08 from Harry Teague. They've come to play, boys...More breaking. It looks like GOP Senate nominee Pearce is up with a 10 second ad touting nuclear power. That's one way to stretch your campaign dollar. If you think we're going to map all the ads to come like this each night, I have a special session to sell you in Santa Fe...

CAPTION CONTEST

There's a free lunch for you and your guest if you come up with the best caption for this cool photo shot by photog Mark Bralley at the Monday Obama ABQ rally. It features Senator Jeff Bingaman, Big Bill and a somewhat bewildered looking Tom Udall. Our caption: "Jeff, why didn't you tell Tom that Pearce would be coming?"

We know you can do better. Send them in via e-mail.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Conservation Voters of NM want to make it clear they are not tied up in the political nonprofit mess. They report that a story we linked to in the ABQ Journal Tuesday wonders if CVNM's political fund would have to register with the state as a result of a ruling by Secretary of State Herrera. CVNM points out they already register and report all their contributions and expenditures, unlike the nonprofits coming under the scrutiny of the attorney general...1996 GOP VP nominee Jack Kemp will be in ABQ Thursday for a shooting contest. It's not to hunt Dems, but to kick off McCain's state sportsmen coalition. Call (505) 715-4311 to shoot 'em up with the former Buffalo Bills quarterback.

KKOB-AM radio's Peter St. Cyr has posted complete audio of Obama at the ABQ library Monday morning...The name of the little girl pictured with Obama in the Tuesday blog is six year old Viviana Edwards. We didn't have the info for our first draft. Vivian's mother, Michelle Kavanaugh, introduced Obama at the library, is also in the pic, spotted it on the blog and emailed the info.

E-mail it in--news, comments or whatever strikes you as interesting.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Obama Takes Command in ABQ
Barack Obama was grinding away in New Mexico Monday, taking another step towards nailing down this Democratic-dominated swing state by meeting with Indian leaders and wowing a heavily Hispanic Dem crowd in ABQ's South Valley. (For the junkies, here is the complete one hour Rio Grande High video, including Big Bill's intro.)

"We think we are ahead here. We need to keep taking these small steps. It doesn't appear McCain who is from a neighboring state will give up here. Obama will be back several times." An Obama insider told me shortly after the visit. He said the campaign expects NM to remain a swing state all the way to November.

Obama met briefly with state pueblo leaders as well as the president of the Navajo Nation at Rio Grande High School shortly before his speech and townhall meeting there.

"It was good to get that done. It is a key constituency for us. An extra thousand Navajo votes could make all the difference. Those precincts vote Democratic at a rate of at least 66%," informed our insider.

Before heading deep into the Valley, Obama, who overnighted at the Downtown Hyatt, met with about 40 invited women at the downtown library to talk about equal pay for women. Because Obama held a similar women-only event when last in ABQ June 24, some questioned why he was doing another. "The morning event was aimed more at the national audience. The afternoon was geared towards New Mexico," explained our insider.

Obama nursed an obvious cold at the library, but they must have pumped him with medicine by the afternoon because he appeared energized and on message. The old-fashioned high school gym rally before a crowd of 1,800 played well, and even had what seemed to be an authentic moment--if here is a such a thing in national politics anymore--when the first question to Obama was a tough one--whether he had back pedaled on his position on Iraq. He called the questioner "feisty," and then had to tell her why she was wrong. Good stuff.

Everything leans Dem this year. The race issue may be the only thing holding Obama back here. His exposure Monday in the Valley and future trips to Hispanic strongholds across the state are an important element in putting him over the top.

WHAT IT'S ALL ABOUT

This is one of my favorite Mark Bralley photos in a long time. It is the daughter of the woman who introduced Obama at his downtown library event Monday. Her name is Viviana Edwards, 6, daughter of Michelle Kavanaugh (Mom Michelle beams in the background). It tells the story that the presidency of the USA, despite its problems of late, retains its mystique with the public--whether that President be Democrat or Republican--or black or white.

DON'T FORGET JOHN
Here's the official McCain page on his Wednesday visit to Las Cruces, his first one there of the campaign season. And here is an in-depther from the Sun-News. Bush narrowly lost Dona Ana County to Kerry in '04. McCain would be happy to do the same with Obama.

AROUND THE ROUNDHOUSE

Big Bill is like the guy holding a stock that has gone down 50% but swears it will go back up. But the oil and gas boom is over for now. The American nation can't tolerate four or five dollar a gallon gas and it won't. The economy simply can't function at that level, and hoping and praying for the return of higher prices won't make it so. That's the central message of the special session of the NM Legislature underway in Santa Fe and which is seeing Bill's taxpayer rebates based on a faith-based oil and gas surplus ripped to shreds, pared to an amount that could barely fill the gas tank of a Geo Metro.

It's been a great run, but the party is over. The punch bowl has been taken away, the cops have been called, the lights have been turned on and the agile ones are running for the exits. Can you imagine the hangover when the next Governor and Legislature face the prospect of actually cutting programs? My, how the liberals will roar and the conservatives, in hibernation for years, will finally get to sharpen their under-used Ginsu knives. Diane Denish, be careful what you wish for.

In the meantime, here's more from the fabled Roundhouse and the grumpy group gathered for what might be their last supper.

GATOR ATTACK

When you are reaching for the upper rings of political power, they'll use everything against you. Take, for example, the recent pummeling Big Bill has had at the hands of grumpy state senators called into special session by the Guv, who is often mentioned as a possible secretary of state in an Obama administration. From the e-mail box: "If you cant deal with the new Mexico Senate, I don't want you dealing with (Russia's)Putin."

It's been amusing to see the mainstream media speculate with vigor about Bill being chosen as Obama's running mate. The soon-to-be Dem prez nominee gave obligatory praise of the Guv at Rio Grande High Monday, but nothing out of the ordinary. Insiders, including Bill's own, long ago ruled out his chances at getting on the ticket. In fact, the worry is that the Guv could get nothing and be stuck here for two years dealing with that grouchy state Senate we saw on full display this weekend.

UDALL'S FOES

That Club for Growth TV ad we told you about Monday that hits Dem Senate nominee Tom Udall will be on the air in the ABQ market for two weeks at a cost of $150,000. The Club
came with $275,00 in primary support for Pearce, so they are well on their way to at least meeting that total in the general. You can see the ad here.

Is the issue of "Eminent Domain," featured in the ad, that big of a deal? Probably to the GOP base and some conservative Dems, and to card-carrying members of the Club for Growth. But soon Pearce is going to have to appeal to undecided centrist voters. It is almost September and the southern NM congressman--and his allies--are still going after votes that should be taken for granted. Udall has to be smiling.

WATCHING THE "WATCHDOGS"

NM Secretary of State Herrera has agreed with AG King and on Monday ordered NM Youth Organized (NMYO) to register as a political committee, forcing them to disclose their contributions and expenditures. The group, an affiliate of Eli Lee's Center for Civic Policy, says it will fight the order in court, which could prove expensive and raise questions by donors concerned that their money is being used for lawyers' fees. Here's a complete report from the ABQ Journal. Read on for our analysis.
AG King
The political nonprofit at the center of the storm over disclosing contributions and expenditures is lawyering up and pulling out all the PR stops. But none of it will avoid the inevitable collision. Center for Civic Policy executive director, Eli Lee, writes in an op-ed piece in the ABQ Journal that the people of NM deserve to know "from whom (legislators) receive financial contributions" but then he turns around and asserts the people have no right to know who is funding his nonprofit's expensive mail attacks on an assortment of legislators. His latest excuse is that release of the donors to the Center would subject them to "harassment." Does that mean we should halt already required financial disclosure because it is a threat to the public safety? Lee, under pressure, recently identified foundation donors, but not individual donors, to his group.

The political nonprofit has sent out loads of hit literature against legislators they claim is "educational" while the AG argues it is blatantly political. The enduring question is why Lee and his allies, who so forcefully promulgate disclosure by the campaigns of elected officials, are themselves so reticent to adopt this ethical behavior as their own, even as they claim to be self-appointed ethical watchdogs of our Legislature. If there were an indictment for being hypocritical, the grand jury would be looking at a true bill.

Lee has also not disclosed specific group expenditures, including his salary. Informed insiders tell us he may be getting as much as 20% of the gross donations. That would be about $329,000 if his group collects his projected amount over two years. (If our insider figure is inaccurate, we would be glad to provide updated information from the Center, or they can give it to the newspapers.)

King has been ridiculed by Center allies as a backwoods country lawyer. It now faces a legal fight over his quest to force full disclosure of the estimated $1.645 million the Center says it will take in this year and next (Although some say the recent publicity can't be helping the Center's fund-raising while others argue the legal trouble will spur it on). Center lawyers say King's action could lead to "unnecessary litigation." But we face the prospect of continued undisclosed funding coming into this state from far and wide, depriving us of the knowledge of who is trying to influence public policy here. Under those circumstances, litigation is something to look forward to, not shy away from.

THE BOTTOM LINES

On our use of the term "farolito bonfire" Monday, a reader writes: "Northern NM and Metro ABQ have opposite references for farolitos and luminarias. In the north, the bonfire is a luminaria and the candle in a lunch bag is a farolito. I think the north is technically correct because a farol is a lantern but my Mom from Belen never accepted that and my Dad from Las Vegas stopped arguing about it."

Maybe we should make it like red or green--either one is acceptable?

Keep us posted. E-mail your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Someone flipped the switch and Campaign '08 lit up like a farolito bonfire on Christmas Eve. Hillary made it to Espanola Sunday; Obama is in ABQ today; McCain is in Las Cruces for a townhall Wednesday; and a special session of the NM Legislature wound its way through a watery weekend in Santa Fe. And it's not going to slow down much between now and Election Day in this swing state of ours. One mystery, however, is sure to endure. Just why does a state with a population yet to touch two million and which looks hardly anything like the "regular" USA, every four years become one of the best predictors of who will take the White House? Barack Obama and John McCain are the latest in a long line of would-be presidents who have searched for the answer as zealously as Coronado searched for the Seven Cities of Gold here. Unlike Coronado, there is a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow for one of our modern-day explorers, but it takes a lot of time and effort looking in the state's nooks and crannies to discover the treasure.

For Obama, the most treasured demographic of them all right now is Hispanic Democrats. Without a big showing by this traditional Dem voting block, he won't have to worry about all those "Reagan Democrats" up for grabs because he will surely lose if the state's most Democratic group is not nailed down and nailed down good. To that end., Obama becomes a Raven today--as in Rio Grande High School Raven. He travels deep into the home of La Politica--in ABQ's South Valley--to begin the process of bringing home Hispanics who voted nearly 40% for Bush in '04 and helped him win the state.

Kerry had abortion and gay marriage hung around his neck by Catholics and other religious conservatives--especially in the Spanish North where the church's reign dates back 400 years. African-Americans are relative strangers to the Hispanic New Mexican political tradition. Obama needs to make fast friends.

It would have been a boost for Barack if he was able to hang with Hillary In Espanola in Rio Arriba County Sunday. The Clinton brand remains strong as witnessed by the enthusiastic greeting she received there before heading south to Santa Fe and ABQ for two separate fundraisers to help retired her presidential debt, and trade White House campaign gossip with Big Bill--who shares with Hillary the pain of losing the Prez race, although he was put out of his misery early in the race.

LEGACY WATCHING

It was the retirement of Senator Pete Domenici that set in motion the once-in-a-lifetime political events we are witnessing this cycle, and the reviews of Domenici's career are being mixed in with the hectic campaigns. Here's one of the first from the las Cruces Sun-News.

BACK TO THE ACTION
Hill & Bill
In Espanola, crowd estimates ranged from 500 to 800 for Hillary Clinton's Sunday afternoon campaign rally featuring a plea by Hill, decked out in a turquoise outfit and matching turquoise jewelry, for Hispanic Dems to back Obama now that she is gone from the contest. Big Bill, Light Guv Denish, Tom Udall, Senator Bingaman and northern congressional contender Ben Ray Lujan shared the stage with her. There was one PR problem associated with the visit as described by an Alligator on the scene: "The trip was not planned by her staff, but controlled by Obama's campaign...Unfortunately, there was a youth dance group that had to be canceled in order to hold the rally. While it makes her look bad on the ten o'clock news; the decision to cancel the youth dancers was solely the Obama folks and not the Clinton's."

Hillary attended fund-raisers hosted by former Big Bill campaign manager Dave Contarino in Santa Fe and an ABQ fund-raiser hosted by Downs of ABQ racetrack owner Paul Blanchard. There was also a reception at the El Pinto restaurant in the ABQ North Valley for the NM delegates who will go to the Dem national convention pledged to Hillary. Our Alligator reports: "Hillary spent about an hour talking to us, taking pictures and signing autographs. She seemed in great spirits and had dinner on the patio with (Lt. Guv) Diane (Denish) and Herb (Denish).

IRATE SPECIAL

New Mexico's Legislature isn't helping advance Big Bill's cause with Obama. The state Senate, to no one's surprise, exploded in acrimony Sunday as the special session called by the Guv went into its third day. Those will be interesting headlines for Obama to glance at while in ABQ today, but it's not as if the Guv wasn't warned. It appears the lawmakers will pass taxpayer rebates, but much smaller than Bill proposed.

PRO-PEARCE GROUP IS BACK

The conservative Club for Growth which came for GOP US Senate nominee Steve Pearce with $275,000 in TV time in his primary with Heather Wilson, is back. Sunday we saw their first ad hitting Dem nominee and praising Pearce for their stands on offshore drilling, among other maters. No word yet on how much the Club is spending for Pearce, but it is only mid-August and they're already up. Maybe that's why Pearce has been reluctant to tap his personal fortune. The Club and other third party groups could make up a big chunk of the cash shortfall he is experiencing.

DEBATES SET

The Udall campaign wasn't looking for a fight with the big ABQ TV stations, and it won't get one now that they have agreed to hold three TV debates--October 15th, KOB-4, October 18th, KRQE-13 and October 26th, KOAT-7. Udall and GOP nominee Pearce will also appear on a segment of NBC's "Meet the Press." Initially, the Udall camp wanted MTP counted toward the three statewide TV debates they said they would take part in. But they are no longer counting MTP, so we will get the three prime time debates as well as the MTP on a Sunday morning. The Pearce camp say they forced the issue; the Udall camp says they were not responding to pressure. The first two debates come as early voting gets underway, giving early voters the chance to see the two contenders debate before casting a vote.

E-mail your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Pete & Pearce
Steve Pearce got the picture he needed--side by side with retiring GOP US Senator Pete Domenici who gave the southern NM congressman his blessing and announced he would take to the campaign trail with him for the final push in October. Also along for Pete's endorsement ride was US Rep. Heather Wilson who benefited from Pete's nod in the June primary, but not enough. Back then, Pete awkwardly disclosed just four days before the primary that he was backing Heather and did no major media; this time he will come with the Full Monty.

It was essential for Pearce to not have only a tepid news release of the Senator's support, but to get Pete before the TV cameras to establish an emotional connection between himself, the Senator and the New Mexican electorate. (Extended video here.) NM's longest-serving Senator still retains a moderate image in the state, despite straying to the right during the Bush administration. Pearce, perceived as too far right to beat Dem Tom Udall, badly needs voters to see him as a more Domenici-like Republican. Domenici can open the door, but ideological Pearce is going to have to walk through it.

By doing the news conference, agreeing to campaign with Pearce, cutting a TV ad for him and hosting a $500 a person lunch following the endorsement, Domenici has signaled that he will do more than go through the motions.

Even if Domenici's work means only that Pearce loses to Udall by a smaller margin, it could make a difference in the all-important NM presidential contest where McCain needs every R excited and ready to go to the polls. At 76 and ailing from an incurable brain disease, the lion is in his winter years, but still with work to do this fall.

OBAMA, BILL & THE SPECIAL

Obama will be back campaigning in NM Monday, just a day after Hillary Clinton comes here for two fund-raisers put together on her behalf by Big Bill. She'll also have a rally in Espanola for Obama. That happens at 2 p.m at the Northern NM College campus. Hill will be in ABQ and Santa Fe Sunday. No news yet on where Obama will be, but expect details to break over the weekend.

Governor Bill is sure to be on hand to greet Obama Monday. We wonder if he'll discuss with him his Dem convention speech set for the third night of the Denver confab. For sure, the Guv hopes the special session of the Legislature, set to convene at noon today, will be done by Monday or at least going smoothly when Barack sets down here. To that end, the Guv is still trying to salvage his tax rebates, now slimmed down in the face of crashing estimates for the state's oil and gas surplus.

CUT THROATS? CUT A CHECK

What do you do when your opponent says your Iraq policy means you "would cut the throats" of our troops. Why, like everything else in a modern campaign, you raise money from it. That was southern Dem congressional hopeful Harry Teague's response to the over-the-top comments made by Republican Ed Tinsley at a Clovis forum and which made national headlines. "Will you contribute to our campaign to help us build the resources we need to respond to these outrageous attacks? If you contribute now, your contribution will be doubled by a group of outraged Teague supporters." Said a Teague fund-raiser appeal.

Tinsley's remarks, fine fodder for the liberal blogosphere, had Ed being named MSNBC's Keith Olbermann "Worst Person in the World" Wednesday. Tinsley admitted his words were "harsh" but worth it if they convinced Teague to not call for an immediate troop withdrawal from Iraq.On his Web site, Teague says of his Iraq policy: " In Congress, one my first commitments will be to fight on behalf of our troops by bringing them home as soon as possible, and as safely as possible."

Political observers in the southern district said the remarks could hurt Tinsley if Teague is able to use them to raise questions over whether the former head of the National Restaurant Association has the temperament to be a congressman. Oldtimers recall that the last Democrat to hold the southern seat, Harold Runnels, used the temperament issue in his 1970 campaign against incumbent Ed Foreman, painting him as a hot head. Of course, Foreman actually got into a fistfight on the floor of the US House with a Texas congressman. Tinsley has a long way to go before he matches that behavior.

CLASSICAL MASSACRE

We're on the media beat with this e-mail making the rounds from Pamela Chavez of the Don Chalmers auto dealerships. It details a recent shake-up at ABQ's classical music station KHFM-FM.

The departure of first Bob Bishop, then Lindy Gold, and now Kip Allen cannot go unnoticed as a great travesty. Their commitment to KHFM of 15 years, 12 years and 21 years have illuminated our communities with...broadcasting excellence...They have worked tirelessly to make sure that the claim on the KHFM website is true: that KHFM has "grown to become the highest-rated classical station in the country."...I count myself among a great number of grieving KHFM listeners, deeply disappointed at the recent actions of the administrative managers of KHFM. I will miss listening to the station.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Reader Micheal Turk E-mails in from D.C. with a correction of the first draft of Wednesday's blog: Joe wrote: “A top D.C. Republican was in ABQ this week, giving a pep talk to local R's who worry about a Democratic tidal wave costing them the US Senate seat and two of the three US House seats they hold.” Republicans don’t hold three House seats. They only hold two. That should have read. “…costing them the US Senate seat and the two US House seats they hold.”

We know that, of course, but didn't get it to come out right. This reminds us of when we only had two congressmen, before 1983, and even further back to before 1968 when the two NM congressmen ran at-large. Will we get more congressmen? Not anytime soon. The pros who monitor such things tell us it will be 2030 at the earliest that NM would be eligible for another US House seat...Also from the D.C. area, Bruce Willis of Responsible Trails America thought this Washington Post piece on "Off-Road Rage" with a Farmington dateline would be of interest. It's all-terrain vehicles, bicycles and broken ribs.

Thanks for tuning in this week. Send your news and comments via e-mail.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Ed Tinsley
It wasn't supposed to be this way. According to Republican Alligators, it was "country bumpkin" Harry Teague who was going to trip over his tongue and knock himself out of the race for the Southern NM congressional seat. But lo and behold, who was front and center in the American liberal blogosphere Wednesday for an over-the-top comment on the Iraq war? Why, it was smooth talking GOP congressional hopeful Ed Tinsley. Here's the gift horse of a sentence Tinsley uttered Aug. 7 at a Clovis candidate forum and that was soon flashed across the World Wide Web on sites such as the Daily Kos and won Tinsley the not so coveted "Worst Person in the World Award" from MSNBC talk host Keith Olbermann.

"How am I supposed to call my two nephews over there right now... and tell them I'm running against a guy who will cut your throat." Tinsley said.

Tinsley's comments came before the Association of Commerce and Industry and were edited and released by the state Democratic Party.



Here is the complete forum as presented on the KSNM Radio Web site.

While Dems were ecstatic over what they perceive as a major campaign gaffe, Republicans were more understanding toward Tinsley, saying the comments might have the liberals jumping for joy, but they are not going to fatally injure the Capitan rancher in the conservative south. Tinsley's campaign statement is below, but first here's Keith Olbermann awarding Ed his worst person pick.



Tinsley made the comments at an Association of Commerce and Industry joint appearance with Teague. That's a conservative group, but even there Ed drew boos and hisses for the remarks. Last night, as his fledgling campaign based in Ruidoso absorbed the national shock waves sent forth by the liberal chattering class, Tinsley released this reaction:

“What I said in the August 7 candidate forum regarding funding of U.S. troops in Iraq were no doubt harsh words. However, if these words caused my opponent to change his mind to support funding that provides necessary body armor, weapons and other equipment to help our troops in harm’s way to achieve their mission--and to not demand immediate withdrawal--then they were well worth it.”

This video is of interest on another level. Ever since Teague came with TV spots in the June primary that did not have him speaking on camera, he has been shadowed by talk that he is not ready for prime-time and that Tinsley will roll over him in public appearances. But Teague more than holds his own in this video, not at all like the country cousin he has been made out to be.

CUT TO THE CHASE
Sen. Feldman
Rather than have Attorney General King dancing around with Secretary of State Herrera over having political nonprofits like the Center For Civic Policy release the names of their donors and their expenditures, why not have the Legislature pass a law mandating disclosure? Look for such a measure to be introduced in January.

After being chided by critics and reporters, the Center released to the ABQ Journal the names of the foundations that have given it money, but refused to release the names of individual donors. Political observers are still trying to digest the stunning amount of money--$1.645 million--that political operative Eli Lee, who runs the Center, says it will take in over a two year period.

Dem State Senator Dede Feldman has been in the forefront of campaign finance reform. Would the ABQ North Valley lawmaker be willing to sponsor a full-disclosure measure? We're just asking.

THE R'S BIG ERROR

Republicans have plenty of things to kick themselves over this election cycle, so adding one more to the list probably won't hurt too much. But it deserves mention. With all the problems Democratic Public Regulation Commissioner candidate Jerome Block, Jr. is having, why is there no Republican in the race? It's especially bad because there is a Green Party candidate for the seat, Rick Lass, who could take votes from Block by appealing to Dems concerned with Block's past. That would mean the Republican could come up the middle and take the heavily Dem seat.

It happened in '97 when Bill Redmond took the northern congressional seat when an ethically challenged Dem was nominated and a Green was also in the race. But there will be no repeat of history in 2008. The R's failed to field a PRC contender. So, if GOP Chairman Allen Weh is looking for a reason to kick himself, he has one.

BRING CASH, PLEASE

A top D.C. Republican was in ABQ this week, giving a pep talk to local R's who worry about a Democratic tidal wave costing them the US Senate seat and the two US House seats they hold. But Rep. Tom Cole, chair of the National Republican Congressional Campaign Committee (NRCCC), could offer little more than talk. While the campaign arm for House Democrats is pledging $1.3 million in TV for Southern Dem Harry Teague, the NRCC simply says money will come for Republican Ed Tinsley, but hardly anyone believes the committee, with only several million in the bank, will dole out much cash to Tinsley. In fact, one school of thought has it that Tinsley, independently wealthy, is expected to write his own check if he can't keep the upper hand in the Republican lending district.

Darren White is not independently wealthy and the question of national R donations for the ABQ US House GOP nominee is more serious. National Dems have pledged a $1.2 million TV buy for Dem Martin Heinrich. Cole attended a fund-raiser for White at the ABQ Four Hills home of Mickey Barnett, the lawyer-lobbyist, who has been a player in NM GOP politics for many years. But there was no announcement of funding for White. His supporters are eyeing the Republican National Committee coffers where over $50 million rests. They hope that some of that cash will find its way to ABQ and White.

It's hard not to believe that White will not end up getting national R help as well as significant third party support in the form of TV ads, but there is no guarantee. The Bernalillo County sheriff opted not to run any TV ads in the June primary, saving his funds for the general election, and he has already been slightly outraised by Dem Martin Heinrich, according to the latest finance reports. White, however, has more cash in the bank.

By the way, why aren't Heinrich and White pounding each other into the cement?

THE BOTTOM LINES

Bob Gallagher, head of the NM Oil and Gas Association, is still a Democrat. We lumped him in the category of "Republican heavyweight" when we posted a list of hosts for today's Tanoan Country Club lunch for Steve Pearce featuring GOP Senator Pete Domenici. So why is Dem Bob supporting R Steve? "I believe Udall is running against my industry instead of Pearce, and I cannot sit back and take that..."

The matanza tradtion is alive and well in New Mexico. ABQ South Valley brothers Steve and Dickie Gallegos will put the pig in the ground this Saturday afternoon as they host Dem Senate nominee Tom Udall. The matanza will be at the home of Diego Gallegos and Theresa Archuleta...

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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The Guv
New Mexico's political elite was backed into the proverbial corner Tuesday. New revenue estimates trimmed a stunning $175 million from the state surplus--or nearly 50% from earlier projections--jeopardizing those promised feel-good tax rebate checks and raising questions about the political judgment of Big Bill as he heads deeper into his lame-duck term as Governor.

Despite a new forecast that says the state will have $225 million--not a $392 million windfall because of high oil and natural gas prices--Bill and his sometimes arch-foe, Legislative Finance Committee Chair and Deming State Senator John Arthur Smith, insisted they could save the rebates when the Legislature is gaveled into a questionable special session this Friday. Said Smith to the AP: "Rebate is about the only kite that will fly right now." (Some estimates have the surplus even lower--down to the $100 million level.)

Those rebates are now not going to be anywhere near the average $200 that each taxpayer was originally promised by Bill. Cutting the cash giveaway is not going to do much to improve his sagging approval ratings and certainly is not going to impress the powers-that-be in the Obama camp who are assessing the Guv's abilities for a big job if Obama moves to Pennsylvania Avenue.

There's some other stuff on the special agenda--health care measures and road repair money--stuff that could easily wait for the regular session, but with the Guv locked into the special, no one wants to say the emperor has no clothes. For damn sure, he doesn't have very much money.

Even though Smith has no re-election opposition, many of his colleagues do. Asking them to come to their senses and cancel the special and the rebates is like asking an Aggie to love a Lobo. It ain't gonna happen. So they will gather Friday to disperse what is rapidly becoming a paltry surplus that they hope isn't eroded even further by declining energy prices. When you do get your 50 bucks in the mail, or whatever it comes to, you are advised to run, not walk, to the bank. The New Mexico cash cow is starting to run dry.

SENATE ACTION
Udall
After hearing an anti-Pearce radio ad from Udall Tuesday, we wondered aloud here if Udall would hit back at Pearce on TV. The answer is yes. Udall has put up this ad tying Pearce to unpopular President George Bush. It's called the "Middle Class Squeeze." It doesn't directly address Pearce's TV criticism of Udall's energy positions, but broadens the attack against the southern NM congressman on the key economic issue. It is Tom's first negative TV against Steve.

Udall went dark on TV for a week or so, but even then a third party attack on Pearce was and is in heavy rotation, making sure that Udall was not defenseless. What is showing now is the financial imbalance in these campaigns. Pearce's TV is much more scattered than Udall's. Does Pearce have enough points up on the air to move the numbers and attract campaign money? Will his "radical environmentalist" message about Udall resonate? Will the conservative Club for Growth come with big third party TV money for Pearce as they did in his primary and as they are now doing against Tom's cousin, Mark Udall, in his Colorado Senate race? As usual, we have more questions than answers.

PETE'S TIMING
Pearce
Maybe it's in in the eye of the beholder. We see Senator Domenici's endorsement this week of Pearce as coming soon enough for Pearce to raise decent money from it and to help him unify a GOP that was divided when Pearce faced-off with Heather Wilson in the June primary. Some e-mailers pointed out that Pete's nod will come over two months after the primary and claimed it shows he remains unexcited by the Pearce candidacy. But Domenici was in no position to endorse Pearce in June. Was he going to turn around just days after endorsing Heather and rub nerves raw by coming for Pearce? Also, coming so soon would have made Domenici look like the opportunist of the year.

On this one we see the glass as half-full, remembering how Pete came for Heather with only days to go in the June primary. If Domenici did the same for the general, that would mean Pearce would be getting a late October endorsement. From that perspective, Domenici's mid-August nod to Pearce looks pretty good. But it's not just Pearce that Pete has on his mind. If Pearce fails to put up a good fight, Obama will have a much easier time with McCain. A strong Pearce benefits McCain and the state's other R congressional candidates. Domenici does not want to leave the stage to catcalls that he did not do enough to help Republicans stave off disaster. In the end, it is as much about Pete's legacy as it is about supporting Pearce.

One of the biggest challenges for Udall is to keep his supporters--especially those on the far left--from their "this race is over" mentality. There is no question that Udall is far and away the likely winner, but campaigns can change on a dime. We sense the Udall's camp is well aware of that dynamic, but the message hasn't trickled all the way down.

QUESTIONS FOR THE COUNTY

How about that $42 million plan by Bernalillo County to buy a big downtown building for office space? They had barely announced it when they were meeting last night to vote on it. Slow down, said the lawyer for some of the commercial tenants in the landmark 500 Marquette building, not the least of which is whether taxpayers are getting a good deal. In a letter to the commission (click to enlarge) he asked on behalf of his clients that the commission take one month to study the issue before committing taxpayers. But no luck. The commission voted 4 to 1 to float revenue bonds and get on with it. How about that? Six days to put together a $42 million deal. Isn't that special? Some supporters of Public Regulation Commissioner Jason Marks are already wondering. He is being challenged by Republican Tim Cummins who sits on the county commission. Could the hasty and expensive building purchase become a campaign issue? We'll see.

KING'S LETTER

Attorney General Gary King has written a second letter to the secretary of state regarding those controversial political nonprofits and whether they should be required to be registered as political action committees and report all their donors and expenditures. King's office is set to meet with the secretary's staff Friday. Text of the new letter containing King's legal advice to Secretary Herrera has not been released, but insiders told us last week King would "come out swinging" on the issue. The Center for Civic Policy, run by political operative Eli Lee, told the ABQ Journal his group will have raised a stunning $1.645 million in two years. An affiliated group, NM Youth Organized, has been mailing hit pieces out on NM legislators, but claiming nonprofit status. King says the lit is clearly campaign lit, not lobbying or educational material as is required of nonprofits. Will the secretary demand that the nonprofits in question re-register as PAC's and require them to fully disclose their funding sources? If not, are we headed to the courts? Stay tuned.

HEINRICH VS. WHITE

The national Dems are not letting a third party radio attack on Dem Heinrich's energy stance go unanswered. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has bought radio time to defend Heinrich and hit White.

Meanwhile, the R's opened a new line of attack on the Dem US House hopeful. They put out a flyer saying Heinrich "fought against Westside roads and bridges." They cited his opposition as a city councilor to extending Paseo del Norte and the four-laning of the Montano bridge. Heinrich is going to have to come with a strong defense. The Westside is loaded with middle of the road Democrats, many of whom have in the past voted for Republican Sheriff Darren White.

PETE IS HUNGRY

Senator Domenici won't be on a diet this week. We told you about the Thursday Tanoan Country Club lunch he is having for Steve Pearce, and today he dines with ABQ GOP congressional hopeful Darren White. The ABQ Marriott lunch with Pete is going for $150 a pop, considerably more than those $25 a pop coffee klatches the sheriff has been having.

THE BOTTOM LINES

We are well into covering our second generation of New Mexican politicos, and sometimes it shows. We referred to state Senate candidate George Munoz Tuesday as the former mayor of Gallup. He gently reminds us that it was his dad, Edward Munoz, who was mayor there for 16 years and who passed away in 2006.

I don't recall who the mayor was in 1971 when I first encountered Gallup on my 125 cc Kawasaki motorcycle, but I vividly recall attending the annual Inter-tribal Indian Ceremonial which had its start in 1922. Quite the sight for someone fresh from the Pennsylvania coal mines.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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Domenici
While GOP US Senator Pete Domenici's endorsement of Steve Pearce for the Senate seat that he will vacate at year's end was as expected as the summer monsoons, the timing is worth noting. Pete will come for Steve at a Thursday morning news conference. Unlike the GOP Senate primary when Pete issued a last minute endorsement for Heather Wilson, who ended up losing to Pearce, Pete is coming early enough for Pearce to actually help him. Not that Domenici's endorsement is going to persuade many voters to join the Pearce bandwagon, but if he agrees to make himself available, Domenici could be very useful in raising badly needed campaign funds for Pearce and also at healing the rift between the top players in the Pearce and Wilson camps.

Pete damaged Pearce's image by giving that last-minute Heather endorsement and he may have also hurt his own legacy by picking the loser. If Pearce can somehow pull off a US Senate upset, Domenici backers will spin that he picked the winner while headed out the door.

And it isn't taking long for Pearce to take financial advantage of Domenici's forthcoming endorsement. Immediately after giving Pearce the nod Thursday morning, Domenici will host a $500 a person "private luncheon" for the southern NM congressman at Tanoan Country Club. A variety of GOP heavyweights are joining Pete. You can see who by clicking on the image.

TOURING WITH TOM

If Tom Udall can hold down Steve Pearce's anticipated margin of victory in the southern congressional district, the Dem will be that much closer to taking the US Senate prize. He's been spending a lot of time there and is headed back this week.

Today Udall kicks off a swing through the 2nd congressional district at Sunland Park. Next week, Udall will work the ABQ area with a couple of side trips to Cruces and the east side.

By the way, Udall is responding to Pearce's TV hit over his energy polices on the radio. We heard a spot paid for by Udall on KKOB-AM radio Monday. We have not heard of any negative TV from Udall to counter Pearce, but we will keep posted.

TEAGUE WILL TALK

Has southern Dem congressional candidate Harry Teague taken the debate issue off the table once and for all? It appears he may have as Teague announced he will take part in three televised "debates" against his GOP rival Ed Tinsley. The first one will be this Friday in Portales at the NM Municipal League meeting and will be broadcast on public TV station KENW. It is not a prime time event, however. It will start at 8 in the morning and also be broadcast on the KNME-TV Web site in ABQ. Also, Tinsley's campaign says this is not really a debate but a "joint appearance" at which the candidates will not be allowed to ask each other questions. Teague also is confirmed for a KOAT debate on October 19th and for one on KRWG-TV, the public station in Las Cruces, on October 9th. The Tinsley campaign says only the KOAT debate is confirmed.

Tinsley has been focusing on debates, pressuring Teague for a multitude of them both televised and non-televised. Consultants say he is doing so because, among other things, he thinks he comes across better than Teague, a Hobbs oilman. But Teague may have little to fear if he does his homework and doesn't worry about trying to act like someone he isn't. Southern New Mexicans are not adverse to homegrown candidates, just ill-informed ones.

MOVING THE TARGET
Teague
Perhaps sensing the debate issue has played itself out, Tinsley took a new tack to kick off his campaign week. He scored Teague for not supporting oil drilling on Otero Mesa, a southern New Mexican desert area that environmentalists want protected. Tinsley repeated his support for drilling on Otero Mesa where the Yates family, big Republican contributors, have a major stake. He also said Teague has not taken a position on drilling in ANWR, but Teague appeared to support such drilling in this May Las Cruces Sun-News interview.

"I don't think we have to drill everywhere. But I guess I don't know what the problem would be (to drill in ANWR). I do think we need to be energy independent." Teague said.

Tinsley also came with a three minute video on energy policy, showcasing his ease in front of the camera and trying to shift the debate to a policy issue in which the R's have an advantage.

None of the congressional candidates in New Mexico are on the TV airwaves yet because they have not raised big money.

BACK CHANNEL ACTION

Those controversial political nonprofits (see Monday's blog) were getting attention again Monday from Attorney General Gary King, but he was trying to lower the temperature as he works with the secretary of state to get her to classify the nonprofits as political action committees,. That means they would have to fully disclose the source of their contributions. We talked here of King eventually going to court if the status of the nonprofits in question is not changed, but an AG spokesman said a lawsuit is not on the frontburner; they are hoping the ongoing talks with the SOS lead to a resolution. Stay tuned.

READER MAILBAG

Mike Parks opines that, contrary to our contention, debating skills are not essential to being a successful US Senator: "The life of a US Senator revolves around debate." Come on!! It certainly involves crafted sound bites and talking points, but actual, public debate has little to do with legislative power and effectiveness. You certainly know better."

Ellen Wedum comments on the fact that a nonprofit is mailing hit mailers into the state Senate district of Lidio Rainaldi in western NM: "If these folks are going after Lidio Rainaldi, they are wasting their money. He isn't running for re-election. The candidates in Senate District 4 are George K. Munoz (D) and Beatrice L. Woodward (R).

The nonprofits that have come under the scrutiny of Attorney General King say they do not mail solely into districts where there is a contested legislative primary.

We've been having fun with Steve Pearce's hippies--the ones he used in his full page ABQ Journal ad to mock his Dem US Senate rival Tom Udall. A reader pointed out that the hippie photo Steve used appeared to be taken from an album promoting 1960's rock, but this anonymous e-mailer weighs in:

"Dude, Regarding the readers that say those hippies were stolen from an album. Well, dude maybe the album hippie came from somewhere else? Check here. As shocking as it may be, not every person who sends you an e-mail has a clue. Good luck. Keep having fun with the blog.

Hey Dude, you are too tough on our e-mailers. After all, they beat you to the punch on the hippies.

THE BOTTOM LINES

ABQ Dem State Rep. Al Park's mid-Heights legislative district used to be a swing area, sending both D's and R's to Santa Fe, but not so lately. The R's are giving it another whirl this year, putting up a man with the most interesting name in state politics--Rhead A. Story. He'll have a $25 a pop fund-raiser tonight in ABQ. Rhead probably knows the story on Al. Park packed away a bunch of money when he sought the Dem nod for state attorney general in 2006, but left that race early and has since become chair of the House Judiciary Committee.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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No summer fun for state Senate Democrats gathered in caucus at a Belen hotel Sunday afternoon where they mulled over the upcoming special legislative session and where, our insiders report, pessimism hung in the air over Big Bill's plans to give cash rebates to Mr. and Mrs. New Mexico based on an oil and gas surplus that is there one day and gone the next.

Our insiders report Big Bill stopped by the caucus where he was greeted cordially as he outlined the purpose of the special, including those rebates. "But as soon as he left, the senators began to worry over the budget projections. They will get an updated forecast from economists on Tuesday. No one seemed to expect the forecast to show the nearly $400 million surplus first projected." Said one of our sources.

If cash rebates are nixed because of the recent price plunge in oil and gas prices, then what will the special session set to begin Friday accomplish? "It appears the Senate could pass the Governor's health care proposal. It is rather modest now. That would give them reason for a short session, and avoid them coming in and simply adjourning. If there is a small surplus, maybe they use it for Medicaid expansion. That money is matched three to one by the federal government," analyzed our insider.

The Sunday caucus was treated to a financial analysis by the Legislative Finance Committee staff which informs that the original budget surplus was based on $134 a barrel oil and $11 natural gas per thousand cubic feet. With the markets plunging, those forecasts seem long ago and far away. And how do the Senators justify a rebate? By telling the public the prices will surely be back up to where they were? Who has that crystal ball? The last we looked there was no one named Houdini serving in the Legislature, but that's who Big Bill may have to emulate if New Mexicans' mailboxes are going to be stuffed with rebate checks.

KING READY TO SWING
Eli Lee Vs. AG King
Attorney General Gary King will "come out swinging" as soon as today, as the battle over politicking nonprofit groups heats up, reliable sources report. The AG, reports our insiders, will again ask that the secretary of state make nonprofit groups like the New Mexico Youth Organization (NMYO) and its parent group, Center for Civic Policy, comply with state campaign reporting rules. If the secretary doesn't, expect King to file a lawsuit to force the issue. Meanwhile, lawyers representing the nonprofits are warning King that they will sue the state if he persists in his bid to hold the groups feet to the fire.

Meanwhile, feeling the heat, political operative Eli Lee, who heads up the Center, revealed some of the funding sources for his controversial nonprofit. He told the ABQ Journal the McCune Foundation and the McKay Foundation--set up by heirs to the Taco Bell fortune--are two of the biggies. Our Alligators had pinpointed the Taco Bell money as one source of Lee's funding, but he shot down speculation that billionaire George Soros was a Center contributor. He said his budget for the next fiscal year will be a whopping $1 million. However, Lee refused to release the individual donors to his nonprofit. He indicated records of them should be available in a November IRS filing, but that's after the election. Also, Lee can only speak for nonprofits he controls. The problem of nonprofit disclosure remains and that's where King is headed.

King's attention on the political non-profits, who bill themselves as "progressive," was refocused Friday when a report surfaced that claimed an assistant attorney general had told a deputy secretary of state to "ignore" King's original request that the secretary classify the NMYO nonprofit as a political action committee, forcing them to more fully disclose their money sources.

"Despite some reports to the contrary, we fully support our earlier position in a letter that the Secretary of State's Office needs to tell the New Mexico Youth Organization (NMYO) to immediately comply with the law," King said.

Insiders say King was none too happy that he was made to look like he was dragging his feet and perhaps fearful of retaliation by the far-left wing of the Democratic Party. Democrat King is up for re-election in 2010. He has also been mentioned as a possible Dem Guv candidate.

WE DIG DEEPER

NMYO is under the umbrella of the Center for Civic Policy, the political nonprofit led by operatives Lee and Matt Brix. Our insiders say King's action will cover both entities. The group mailed out attack literature to help oust three incumbent Dem legislators in the June primary. The AG maintains the literature is obvious campaign material, not educational material as the nonprofits insist. The lit hit the mail boxes about sixty days before the election, keeping within the timeline that nonprofits are allowed to do mailers. But the attacks we've seen are nearly identical to election hit pieces, leaving little doubt that recipients are being urged to vote against the target in the lit. Many of the mailings deal with environmental, big business and ethics issues. We'll try to get some of them and post them here so you can be the judge.

Political nonprofits report their finances to the IRS, but requirements are less comprehensive and not as timely as the state requirements that King is demanding that they meet. Three legislators--Senators Robinson and Taylor and Rep. Silva--were defeated in their primary bids with the help of the nonprofits. They have filed suit to nullify the election results, a long shot play, but one that served to highlight the big "progressive" money coming into legislative races. Most of it, as we learned from Lee over the weekend, coming from out-of-state. Nonprofit hit pieces are now going out against more lawmakers including Senators Rawson, Snyder and Rainaldi.

PROGRESSIVE OR HYPOCRITICAL?

The nonprofits have also been active in promoting ethics legislation, opening themselves to a charge of hypocrisy. Ethics advocates ask if the nonprofits want to improve ethics why don't they fully disclose their finances and lead by example? One reason is that donations to the nonprofits are tax deductible. That gives them an advantage over other political groups. And, yes, donors get to make accusations against candidates under the cover of darkness. And it's not just progressives. What about right-wing interest groups using nonprofit status to hide from the public? One of them came recently with radio spots hitting Dem Tom Udall on gas prices.

King is warning that the nonprofit explosion threatens to take political financing underground and deprive the public of its right to know. The nonprofits retort that they are not engaging in overt political activity that violates their nonprofit status. Their critics want AG King, the IRS and/or the US Attorney to examine that claim. Some are pushing for the NM Legislature to take on the issue in next year's session. Legal beagles say if the lawmakers lawsuit seeking nullification of the election leads to testimony during a "discovery" process, funding sources for the nonprofits could be fully revealed.

If the nonprofits stick to their guns and the SOS does not force compliance with state regs, it looks like they and Attorney General King will get to tell it to a judge. With hundreds of thousands of unaccounted for dollars already pumped into our state's political process, and more coming as we speak, the time is ripe for a legal showdown.

FOLEY AND KING

Another hot potato on Attorney General King's platter is a matter involving outgoing State Rep. and House minority whip Dan Foley, Chaves County Commissioner Harold Hobson, as reported recently, is asking King to investigate the business ties between Allstate insurance, Rep. Foley and state insurance contracts. Foley is an insurance agent. The Hobson letter asking King if a contract Foley has should have been put up for competitive bidding raises some interesting questions. (Click the image to enlarge.)

YOU TUBING HEALTH CARE

Here;'s a little exclusive for you--an ad warning against government-run universal health care coverage. It was paid for by Farmington area GOP State Senator Bill Sharer. Not that Sharer has to worry much or buy TV time for his ad--Big Bill has scaled way back the health care reform measures he is asking the Legislature to approve when it meets in special session this Friday.



DEBATING DEBATES

Should Tom Udall agree to as many TV debates that are offered and put to an end the dreary debate over debates that has become a summer staple of the US Senate campaign? If he did, he would only be taking part in perhaps two more than the three TV face-offs he has already agreed to and deprive Steve Pearce of his soapbox. The southern NM congressman was hammering Udall again over the weekend, accusing Udall's camp of stalling in setting up the TV debates.

I urge him to have a meeting within the next seven days with our campaign and all of the electronic and print media to finalize a date certain for a series of debates to be televised in New Mexico.

KOAT-TV has proposed an October 26 debate. We await word from stations KOB, KRQE and public stations KNME in ABQ and KRWG in Las Cruces on whether they want to host debates. Also. NBC's Meet the Press has scheduled a Sunday morning national face-off between our two Senate hopefuls. NO date set yet. Udall says he wants only three statewide TV debates and he wants to count the MTP appearance as one of them. Pearce does not.

INSIDER ANALYSIS ON THIS
Udall
Why the reticence to debate in the first open US Senate seat since 1972? The usual and obvious reason--Udall is way ahead and doesn't want to help Pearce by giving him face time. The other reason, not mentioned much, is that Udall, like Pearce, is not noted for his oratorical skills and his handlers do not want to risk a mistake like the "brain freeze" Dem Patricia Madrid made in her 2006 congressional race against Heather Wilson and which probably cost her the race. Pearce is also unpracticed in the TV debate format, but lagging by double digits, he needs to take the risk.

The problem in recent years has been a lack of interest by the network affiliates in broadcasting debates. If not all of them offer time, Udall will get off the hook. But if KOB wants to have a debate, in addition to broadcasting the MTP appearance, and KRQE also makes time available, does the Udall camp turn them down KOB because it will mean going over its self-imposed limit of three debates? And what about public TV, is Udall going to turn them down?

The life of a US Senator revolves around debate--on the floor and in committee. While taking part in all the TV debates offered might give Pearce a slight advantage, Udall looks risking weak and fearful if he refuses a major network. The possibility of trapping the contender may even make the stations more prone now to offer debate time. It would make a pretty good story for them if he did refuse, and could explode into a major issue--jut what Udall wants to avoid.

Udall could simply agree to one NM hosted debate on each major station. It would quickly put an end to Pearce's jabbing, serve the interest of the electorate and, if he wins in November, it just might make Udall a better prepared United States senator.

STEVE'S HIPPIES

An enterprising Alligator revealed that the pic of those hippies Steve Pearce used for his full-page ABQ Journal ad hitting Tom Udall was taken from the cover of an album promoting 1960's rock. We posted it for some Friday fun. Now we go one better. We have the hippies promoting the album on a video!



Okay, we don't know for sure if they are the same hippies the GOP US Senate nominee used in his ad, but it's close enough. So come on all you love children--that means you Tom Udall and you Steve Terrell--let's get down with Steve's hippies. And Steve Pearce, we dig you, man. But don't bogart that joint, just dance.

This is it. The home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments, and stop by again soon.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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What's this? Is Steve Pearce an in-the-closet 60's rock and roller? Blog readers, old enough to know how to fix a lava lamp, point out that the photo of hippies that Pearce used in his full page ABQ Journal ad to mock Dem US Senate nominee Tom Udall, appears to have been taken from the cover art of the album, "Spirit of the 60's." (Click to enlarge images.)

The record contains such possible Pearce favorites as "Eve of Destruction" and "San Francisco (Be Sure To Wear Some Flowers In Your Hair)." Somehow we can't imagine the Hobbs oilman and southern GOP congressman jammin' to those tunes. As for those hippies that caught the eye of the Pearce campaign, do you think they are owed royalties? Maybe Steve can promise to vote for that legalized hemp bill and the fellas will call it all square. What do you say, Steve?

THE REVIEWS

Pearce's media debut this week--here's his radio ad-- had old hippies like KRQE's Bill Diven buzzing away on their blogs. Elsewhere, Pearce drew mixed reviews. The state GOP unsurprisingly asserted it was a home run:

Pearce has had an outstanding week showing New Mexicans how out of touch Tom Udall is with the energy problems we face...Udall...refuses to embrace common-sense energy solutions and is instead in the pocket of far-left environmental extremists..

But not all observers were convinced Pearce's media strategy would get him out of the cellar. They argued that Pearce was using language and images that befit a Republican primary election, not a general election that will be decided by independents and conservative Democrats. They frowned on his use of the terms "far-left" "radical environmentalist" and "hysterical environmentalists" as too inflammatory for those voters. On the other hand, even though it is August, Pearce may still be trying to bring home Republicans who were divided by Pearce's fierce GOP primary with Heather Wilson.

The best thing for Pearce is that he is finally out of the gate, after ceding the TV airwaves to Udall for two months. It appeared Udall went dark this week and let Pearce's media debut go on without him, at least that's what we're told by avid tube watchers.

WHITE'S BACK

ABQ GOP congressional hopeful and Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White called a news conference Thursday and shot down Web rumors that he would get out of the race and that ABQ GOP US Rep. Heather Wilson would get back in. White repeated that his recent back injury will keep him from door-to-door campaigning, but he does not need back surgery which could have kept him on his back for six weeks.

Meantime, is the sheriff taking a left turn? After his one week hospital stay for his back injury, he said the USA should "provide affordable, accessible, and portable health care to all New Mexico families and children." The Dems say that sounds like universal health coverage--an anathema to the GOP orthodoxy. But then these days that orthodoxy is about as popular as Brussels Sprouts in a kids cafeteria. State Dems pounced:

The issue of healthcare is too important to trust Darren White and his election year flip-flops...Obviously, we're glad that White received quality care and is back on the campaign trail, but we can't help but ask, how about New Mexico's working families?"

That scorcher might make Darren wish he was back in his hospital bed being attended to by the candy stripers.

ON THE RECORD

Below is extended news conference audio of White discussing his back injury with our photog Mark Bralley. And here is video of the news conference from KOB-TV's Dyson.


ABOUT THAT SPECIAL

Writing in her Capitol Observer column, Lorene Mills threw some cold water on the prospect of Mr. and Mrs. New Mexico getting a cash rebate from the August 15 special legislative session.

The tax rebate so needed by New Mexicans dealing with increased prices of everything--food, gas, electricity--may have to wait until there is real money, cash on the barrel head, not nebulous gaseous predictions based on shifting statistics and a fluctuating global economy.

Oh yeah, there are many things "gaseous" as you near the fabled Santa Fe Roundhouse.

OBAMA WON THE NORTH

In our first draft Thursday, we wrote that Obama lost the north to Hillary in the Feb. Dem prez caucus. Actually, Obama narrowly won the northern congressional district. He also won the
ABQ district, but was beaten by Clinton in the south. She narrowly won the state.

COCA-COLA

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

With just sixty days before absentee voting gets underway, the NM presidential race seems up in the air. National pundits are scoring the state "lean Obama" but not with much confidence. Obama has opened 17 field offices here and insiders say they would not be surprised to see more. Both national parties are spending heavy, with the Dems estimated to have already pumped in $500,000 and the R's almost an equal amount.

(The National Journal reports McCain's campaign spent $25K on NM TV for the week of 7/29-8/4. From 8/5-8/11, the Republican is spending nothing.)

Reports from the heavily Democratic and Hispanic north spell some trouble for Obama, with politicos saying the race issue looms large. Obama backers here want him to tamp it down by traveling to one of the Spanish counties such as San Miguel. They also worry about churches in the north hammering the Dem contender on abortion and gay marriage as they did John Kerry who lost the state to Bush in 2004. Obama narrowly won the north but lost the state to Hillary Clinton in the February Dem prez caucus. There is talk this week of her trying to make a comeback at the Denver convention. One group still pushing her is called "Party Unity My Ass."

We asked veteran pollster and Dem consultant Harry Pavlides to give us a prep sheet for the presidential battle to come.

McCain should carry the southern congressional district big, by 20,000 to 30,000 votes. The north belongs to Obama but there is an issue over his margin. If Hispanics are not turned on to him, it will shrink. The race will be decided by blue-collar Democrats and Independents. The key swing areas where these voters live are: the ABQ NE Heights east of San Mateo to Eubank; on the west side of ABQ in the Taylor Ranch area; the city of Rio Rancho and the Bellamah district in south central Las Cruces in Dona Ana County.

Pavlides said voter turnout should follow the historical pattern, with the most votes as a percentage of those registered being cast in the ABQ metro, followed by the north and then the south.

He agrees if the election were held today, Obama would win. However, he believes McCain is not out of the race, not by a long shot.

McCain will not have the field organization that Obama has, but his vote is more likely to go to the polls without prodding. Also, some "old guard" Dems in rural NM e-mail us about their resentment of the newcomers who have flooded into the state for Obama. Ruffled feathers will need to be smoothed.

Obama's campaign here seems to hinge on getting new and younger voters to the polls. The current composition of NM's electorate may be too conservative for Obama. Even a Dem who ran as a moderate--Al Gore--barely managed a victory here. Maybe Obama will break out once voters get to know him better, but as things stand today, McCain, with appeal to veterans, Hispanics and conservative Dems, appears poised to at least make it to the late rounds.

IN THE FIELD

It's all field all the time for Obama. The man heading up the organization here is Brent Messenger who did similar work for the candidate in California and Nevada. Here's a video of Messenger explaining himself and his politics.

THE FIRST HEINRICH HIT

The first paid electronic media of the fall campaign mentioning ABQ Dem congressional candidate Martin Heinrich is negative. The conservative group "Freedoms Watch" is on the radio airwaves, hitting Heinrich on oil drilling. The group is heavily funded by Las Vegas billionaire Sheldon Adelson and is targeting Dem candidates around the country. Heinrich recently said he is not against offshore drilling if it can be done in an enviornmentally safe way, even though many of the groups who support him are against it. In response to the radio bashing, Heinrich's campaign said: "The ad is paid for by fat cat Republican donors with close ties to George Bush. They want Darren White in Congress because they know he supports a radical big oil agenda that has resulted in record profits for oil companies."

You can hear the anti-Heinrich ad on the Huffington Post blog where you will also see speculation about Darren getting out of the ABQ congressional race and Heather Wilson coming back in! The rumor mill has been having fun with this one for the past week--especially because White has been sidelined with a back injury--but it was all below the radar--until now. Adding to the delight of the conspiracy theorists is the scheduled GOP State Central Committee meeting August 14 where, theoretically, the switch could be made. Is this plausible? Whatever. But it is adding spice to the campaign during these languid August days. By the way, conspiracy junkies, the last day for a candidate to withdraw from the general election is September 3. Darren has scheduled a news conference for today, where he will discuss his bad back, among other matters, including health care.

NORTHERN ACTION

There was no ganging up on frontrunner Ben Ray Lujan at the first appearance by all four contenders for the northern congressional seat. Dem Lujan, R Dan East and independent candidates Carol Miller and Ron Simmons tackled the energy issue, but not each other. The northern campaign is Lujan's to lose. R East is showing some spunk, pushing for more joint appearances with Lujan. He could help drive some R turnout in the Four Corners and east side. But this deal is nothing like 1997 when Dem Eric Serna was defeated in a special US House election by Republican Bill Redmond with then Green Party member Carol Miller playing spoiler. It would serve Lujan well to show up for as many of the joint appearances as possible. Limiting himself only gives his foes an opening, while showing up shows he has the confidence to be the congressman.

IMAGINE THAT

The major campaigns haven't shown much imagination yet in garnering voter attention during the slow summer months. But we think we spotted an exception Wednesday. State Dems announced:

"Santa Fe Mayor David Coss will present Ed Tinsley, candidate for the 2nd Congressional District, with a Santa Fe Resident of the Month Award...Tinsley will be recognized for his outstanding service to Santa Fe, including his tenure on the board of the Valle National Park...

Tinsley, a Lincoln County rancher and owner of the K-Bobs restaurant chain, has been chided for having a second home in the swank Las Campanas neighborhood of Santa Fe, and for spending a considerable time there instead of in the southern district. He faces Dem Harry Teague who hopes the carpetbagger issue will help keep his hopes alive in the conservative district. Ed's campaign calls the Santa Fe ceremony "a silly stunt." But it did get some attention, and that's the measuring stick.

NOT FROM THEM

We mentioned several foundations Wednesday that political insiders point to as possible source of funds for the nonprofit groups spending big money in NM legislative races this year. But a spokesman for Lt. Gov. Diane Denish says the Daniels Fund, which was mentioned as a possibility and on whose board Denish sits, is not one of them. "No money from Daniels has gone to the nonprofit groups. In fact, several prominent Republicans sit on its board." Said the spokesman.

The non-profits are aligned with the left-wing of the Democratic Party. The explosion of nonprofits on the state political scene has generated heat. The reporting requirements for the groups leave the press and public in the dark as to who is donating to them until well after the election. And contributions are tax deductible. The nonprofits could lose that status if it is shown they are pursuing a partisan political agenda.

TV TALK

KRQE remains the 10 p.m. news leader in the big ABQ market as we prepare for the onslaught of the paid political. The CBS affiliate scored a 7.7 rating in July. KOAT was second with 6.7 and KOB was close behind with a 6.6 rating. The rating is the percentage of households with TV that are tuned in. For example, KRQE's 7.7 rating means of all the homes owning TV sets, 7.7% of them are tuned to the station's 10 p.m. news.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author